A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

La régression tumorale n'est pas un facteur de risque d'atteinte du ganglion sentinelle dans les mélanomes fins (indice de Breslow < or = 1 mm) [Tumour regression is not predictive for higher risk of sentinel node involvement in thin melanomas (Breslow thickness < or = 1 mm)]

Background: Thin melanomas (Breslow thickness <= 1 mm) are considered highly curable. The aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation between histological tumour regression and sentinel lymph node (SLN) involvement in thin melanomas. Patients and methods: This was a retrospective single-centre study of 34 patients with thin melanomas undergoing SLN biopsy between April 1998 and January 2005. Results: The study included 14 women and 20 men of mean age 56.3 years. Melanomas were located on the neck (n = 3), soles (n = 4), trunk (n = 13) and extremities (n = 14). Pathological examination showed 25 SSM, four acral lentiginous melanomas, three in situ melanomas, one nodular melanoma and one unclassified melanoma with a mean Breslow thickness of 0.57 mm. Histological tumour regression was observed in 26 over 34 cases and ulceration was found in one case. Clark levels were as follows: I (n = 3), II (n = 20), III (n = 9), IV (n = 2). Growth phase was available in 15 cases (seven radial and eight vertical). Mitotic rates, available in 24 cases, were: 0 (n = 9), 1 (n = 11), 2 (n = 2), 3 (n = 1), 6 (n = 1). One patient with histological tumour regression (2.9% of cases and 3.8% of cases with regressing tumours) had a metastatic SLN. One patient negative for SLN had a lung relapse and died of the disease. Mean follow-up was 26.2 months. Conclusion: The results of the present study and the analysis of the literature show that histological regression of the primary tumour does not seem predictive of higher risk of SLN involvement in thin melanomas. This suggests that screening for SLN is not indicated in thin melanomas, even those with histological regression.

Evolutionary ecology of learning: insights from fruit flies

Ecologically and evolutionarily oriented research on learning has traditionally been carried out on vertebrates and bees. While less sophisticated than those animals, fruit flies (Drosophila) are capable of several forms of learning, and have an advantage of a short generation time, which makes them an ideal system for experimental evolution studies. This review summarizes the insights into evolutionary questions about learning gained in the last decade from evolutionary experiments on Drosophila. These experiments demonstrate that Drosophila have the genetic potential to evolve substantially improved learning performance in ecologically relevant learning tasks. In at least one set of selected populations the improved learning generalized to another task than that used to impose selection, involving a different behavior, different stimuli, and a different sensory channel for the aversive reinforcement. This improvement in learning ability was associated with reduction in other fitness-related traits, such as larval competitive ability and lifespan, pointing out to evolutionary trade-offs of improved learning. These trade-offs were confirmed by other evolutionary experiments where reduction in learning performance was observed as a correlated response to selection for tolerance to larval nutritional stress or for delayed aging. Such trade-offs could be one reason why fruit flies have not fully used up their evolutionary potential for learning ability. Finally, another evolutionary experiment with Drosophila provided the first direct evidence for the long-standing ideas that learning can under some circumstances accelerate and in other slow down genetically-based evolutionary change. These results demonstrate the usefulness of fruit flies as a model system to address evolutionary questions about learning.

Nest-box design for the study of diurnal raptors and owls is still an overlooked point in ecological, evolutionary and conservation studies: a review

The use of artificial nest-boxes has led to significant progress in bird conservation and in our understanding of the functional and evolutionary ecology of free-ranging birds that exploit cavities for roosting and reproduction. Nest-boxes and their improved accessibility have made it easier to perform comparative and experimental field investigations. However, concerns about the generality and applicability of scientific studies involving birds breeding in nest-boxes have been raised because the occupants of boxes may differ from conspecifics occupying other nest sites. Here we review the existing evidence demonstrating the importance of nest-box design to individual life-history traits in three falcon (Falconiformes) and seven owl (Strigiformes) species, as well as the extent to which publications on these birds describe the characteristics of exploited artificial nest-boxes in their 'methods' sections. More than 60% of recent publications did not provide any details on nest-box design (e.g. size, shape, material), despite several calls >15 years ago to increase the reporting of such information. We exemplify and discuss how variation in nest-box characteristics can affect or confound conclusions from nest-box studies and conclude that it is of overall importance to present details of nest-box characteristics in scientific publications.

Genomic rearrangements in trypanosomatids: an alternative to the "one gene" evolutionary hypotheses?

Most molecular trees of trypanosomatids are based on point mutations within DNA sequences. In contrast, there are very few evolutionary studies considering DNA (re) arrangement as genetic characters. Waiting for the completion of the various parasite genome projects, first information may already be obtained from chromosome size-polymorphism, using the appropriate algorithms for data processing. Three illustrative models are presented here. First, the case of Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis/L. (V.) peruviana is described. Thanks to a fast evolution rate (due essentially to amplification/deletion of tandemly repeated genes), molecular karyotyping seems particularly appropriate for studying recent evolutionary divergence, including eco-geographical diversification. Secondly, karyotype evolution is considered at the level of whole genus Leishmania. Despite the fast chromosome evolution rate, there is qualitative congruence with MLEE- and RAPD-based evolutionary hypotheses. Significant differences may be observed between major lineages, likely corresponding to major and less frequent rearrangements (fusion/fission, translocation). Thirdly, comparison is made with Trypanosoma cruzi. Again congruence is observed with other hypotheses and major lineages are delineated by significant chromosome rearrangements. The level of karyotype polymorphism within that "species" is similar to the one observed in "genus" Leishmania. The relativity of the species concept among these two groups of parasites is discussed.

Krein's strings whose spectral functions are of polynomial growth

In case Krein's strings with spectral functions of polynomial growth a necessary and su fficient condition for the Krein's correspondence to be continuous is given.

New insights into the long-term evolutionary history of the avian MHC

SummaryGene duplication and neofunctidnalization are important processes in the evolution of phenotypic complexity. They account for important evolutionary novelties that confer ecological adaptation, such as the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), a multigene family with a central role in vertebrates' adaptive immune system. Multigene families, which evolved in large part through duplication, represent promising systems to study the still strongly depbated relative roles of neutral and adaptive processes in the evolution of phenotypic complexity. Detailed knowledge on ecological function and a well-characterized evolutionary history place the mammals' MHC amongst ideal study systems. However mammalian MHCs usually encompass several million base pairs and hold a large number of functional and non-functional duplicate genes, which makes their study complex. Avian MHCs on the other hand are usually way more compact, but the reconstruction of. their evolutionary history has proven notoriously difficult. However, no focused attempt has been undertaken so far to study the avian MHC evolutionary history in a broad phylogenetic context and using adequate gene regions.In the present PhD, we were able to make important contributions to the understanding of the long-term evolution of the avian MHC class II Β (MHCI1B). First, we isolated and characterized MHCIIB genes in barn owl (Tyto alba?, Strigiformes, Tytonidae), a species from an avian lineage in which MHC has not been studied so far. Our results revealed that with only two functional MHCIIB genes the MHC organization of barn owl may be similar to the 'minimal essential' MHC of chicken (Gallus gallus), indicating that simple MHC organization may be ancestral to birds. Taking advantage of the sequence information from barn owl, we studied the evolution of MHCIIB genes in 13 additional species of 'typical' owls (Strigiformes, Strigidae). Phylogenetic analyses revealed that according to their function, in owls the peptide-binding region (PBR) encoding exon 2 and the non-PBR encoding exon 3 evolve by different patterns. Exon 2 exhibited an evolutionary history of positive selection and recombination, while exon 3 traced duplication history and revealed two paralogs evolving divergently from each other in owls, and in a shorebird, the great snipe {Gallinago media). The results from exon 3 were the first ever from birds to demonstrate gene orthology in species that diverged tens of millions of years ago, and strongly questioned whether the taxa studied before provided an adequate picture of avian MHC evolution. In a follow-up study, we aimed at explaining a striking pattern revealed by phylogenetic trees analyzing the owl sequences along with MHCIIB sequences from other birds: One owl paralog (termed DAB1) grouped with sequences of passerines and falcons, while the other (DAB2) grouped with wildfowl, penguins and birds of prey. This could be explained by either a duplication event preceding the evolution of these bird orders, or by convergent evolution of similar sequences in a number of orders. With extensive phylogenetic analyses we were able to show, that indeed a duplication event preceeded the major avian radiation -100 my ago, and that following this duplication, the paralogs evolved under positive selection. Furthermore, we showed that the divergently evolving amino acid residues in the MHCIIB-encoded β-chain potentially interact with the MHCI I α-chain, and that molecular coevolution of the interacting residues may have been involved in the divergent evolution of the MHCIIB paralogs.The findings of this PhD are of particular interest to the understanding of the evolutionary history of the avian MHC and, by providing essential information on long-term gene history in the avian MHC, open promising perspectives for advances in the understanding of the evolution of multigene families in general, and for avian MHC organization in particular. Amongst others I discuss the importance of including protein structure in the phylogenetic study of multigene families, and the roles of ecological versus molecular selection pressures. I conclude by providing a population genomic perspective on avian MHC, which may serve as a basis for future research to investigate the relative roles of neutral processes involving effective population size effects and of adaptation in the evolution of avian MHC diversity and organization.RésuméLa duplication de gènes et leur néo-fonctionnalisation sont des processus importants dans l'évolution de la complexité phénotypique. Ils sont impliqués dans l'apparition d'importantes nouveautés évolutives favorisant l'adaptation écologique, comme c'est le cas pour le complexe majeur d'histocompatibilité eprésentent des systèmes prometteurs pour l'étude controversée des rôles relatifs des processus neutres et adaptatifs dans l'évolution de la complexité phénotypique. La connaissance détaillée de sa fonction écologique, ainsi que de son histoire évolutive, placent le CMH des mammifères parmi les candidats idéaux. Toutefois, les CMHs des mammifères comprennent habituellement plusieurs millions de paires de bases et sont formés par un grand nombre de gènes dupliqués, fonctionnels et non-fonctionnels, ce qui rend leur étude complexe. Au contraire, les CMHs des oiseaux sont généralement plus compacts, mais la reconstruction de leur histoire évolutive s'est révélée difficile. Aucune analyse spécifique n'a cependant été entreprise jusqu'à présent pour étudier l'histoire évolutive du CMH aviaire dans un large contexte phylogénétique et en utilisant des régions géniques adéquates.Ce travail de thèse a contribué à la compréhension de l'évolution à long-terme du CMH aviaire classe II Β (CMH II Β). Nous avons isolé et caractérisé les gènes CMH I IB de la chouette effraie (Tyto alba; Strigiformes, Tytonidae), une espèce appartenant à une lignée aviaire dont le CMH n'avait pas été étudié jusqu'ici. Avec uniquement deux gènes CMHIIB fonctionnels, l'organisation CMH de la chouette effraie semble être comparable à celle "minimale" du poulet (Gallus gallus), ce qui suggère qu'une organisation simple du CMH pourrait être ancestrale chez les oiseaux. En se basant sur l'information obtenue pour cette espèce, nous avons ensuite étudié l'évolution des gènes CMHIIB chez 13 espèces de chouettes "typiques" (Strigiformes, Strigidae). Les analyses phylogénétiques ont révélé que chez les chouettes, selon leur fonction, l'exon 2 codant pour la 'peptide-binding region' (PBR) et l'exon 3 ne codant pas pour la région PBR évoluent de manière distincte. L'exon 2 montre une histoire évolutive de sélection positive et recombinaison, tandis que l'exon 3 retrace l'histoire de duplication et révèle deux paralogues évoluant de façon divergente chez les chouettes, ainsi que chez un limicole, la bécassine double (Gallinago media). Les résultats découlant de l'analyse de l'exon 3 ont montré pour la première fois chez les oiseaux une orthologie de gènes chez des espèces ayant divergé il y a des dizaines de millions d'années. Dans une deuxième étude, nous avons voulu expliquer le pattern surprenant révélé par les arbres phylogénétiques lorsque les séquences CMHIIB des chouettes sont analysées avec les séquences d'autres oiseaux: un paralogue de chouette (appelé DABI) forme un groupe avec les séquences de passereaux et faucons, tandis que l'autre (DAB2) se regroupe avec les gallo-ansériformes, les manchots et les rapaces diurnes. Ceci pourrait être expliqué soit par une duplication qui a précédé l'évolution de ces ordres aviaires soit par évolution convergente dans un certain nombre d'ordres. Grâce à des analyses phylogénétiques approfondies, nous avons pu montrer qu'un événement de duplication a effectivement précédé la radiation aviaire principale d'il y a environ 100 millions d'années, et qu'après cette duplication les paralogues ont évolué sous sélection positive. De plus, les résidus d'acides aminés évoluant de façon divergente dans la chaîne β codée par le CMHIIB interagissent potentiellement avec la chaîne α codée par le CMHII, et que la coévolution moléculaire de ces résidus pourrait être à la base de l'évolution divergente des paralogues CMHIIB.Dans cette thèse sont discutés entre autres l'importance d'inclure la structure des protéines dans l'étude phylogénétique des familles multigéniques, ainsi que les rôles respectifs des pressions sélectives écologique et moléculaire. La conclusion comporte une perspective sur la génomique des populations du CMH aviaire, qui pourrait servir de base pour de futures recherches sur les rôles relatifs joués par Îes processus neutres comprenant les effets de la taille efficace des populations et l'adaptation dans l'évolution de la diversité et l'organisation du MHC aviaire.

Evolutionary biology: genetics and bisexuality.

A population-genetic model indicates that if there is a gene responsible for homosexual behaviour it can readily spread in populations. The model also predicts widespread bisexuality in humans.

Melan-A-specific cytotoxic T cells are associated with tumor regression and autoimmunity following treatment with anti-CTLA-4.

PURPOSE: Ipilimumab is a monoclonal antibody that blocks the immune-inhibitory interaction between CTL antigen 4 (CTLA-4) and its ligands on T cells. Clinical trials in cancer patients with ipilimumab have shown promising antitumor activity, particularly in patients with advanced melanoma. Often, tumor regressions in these patients are correlated with immune-related side effects such as dermatitis, enterocolitis, and hypophysitis. Although these reactions are believed to be immune-mediated, the antigenic targets for the cellular or humoral immune response are not known. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We enrolled patients with advanced melanoma in a phase II study with ipilimumab. One of these patients experienced a complete remission of his tumor. The specificity and functional properties of CD8-positive T cells in his peripheral blood, in regressing tumor tissue, and at the site of an immune-mediated skin rash were investigated. RESULTS: Regressing tumor tissue was infiltrated with CD8-positive T cells, a high proportion of which were specific for Melan-A. The skin rash was similarly infiltrated with Melan-A-specific CD8-positive T cells, and a dramatic (>30-fold) increase in Melan-A-specific CD8-positive T cells was apparent in peripheral blood. These cells had an effector phenotype and lysed Melan-A-expressing tumor cells. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that Melan-A may be a major target for both the autoimmune and antitumor reactions in patients treated with anti-CTLA-4, and describe for the first time the antigen specificity of CD8-positive T cells that mediate tumor rejection in a patient undergoing treatment with an anti-CTLA-4 antibody. These findings may allow a better integration of ipilimumab into other forms of immunotherapy.

Analysis and estimative of schistosomiasis prevalence for the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using multiple regression with social and environmental spatial data

The aim of this work is to establish a relationship between schistosomiasis prevalence and social-environmental variables, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, through multiple linear regression. The final regression model was established, after a variables selection phase, with a set of spatial variables which contains the summer minimum temperature, human development index, and vegetation type variables. Based on this model, a schistosomiasis risk map was built for Minas Gerais.

Validation of Logistic Regression Models for Landslide Susceptibility Maps

A wide range of numerical models and tools have been developed over the last decades to support the decision making process in environmental applications, ranging from physical models to a variety of statistically-based methods. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of a part of Three Gorges Reservoir region of China was produced, employing binary logistic regression analyses. The available information includes the digital elevation model of the region, geological map and different GIS layers including land cover data obtained from satellite imagery. The landslides were observed and documented during the field studies. The validation analysis is exploited to investigate the quality of mapping.