Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation

This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ~6 and ~0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At ~6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5–1 °C. At ~0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from −1 °C in south-western Europe to +1 °C in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results.

Palaeoenvironmental changes in Central Europe (NE Poland) during the last 6200 years reconstructed from a high-resolution multi-proxy peat archive

Peat deposits from an ombrotrophic bog (north-eastern Poland) were analysed to reconstruct peatland development and environmental changes. This paper presents reconstructions of hydrological changes and plant succession over the last 6000 years. The methods included the high-resolution analysis of plant macrofossils, pollen and testate amoebae, supported by radiocarbon dating. Three main phases were identified in the history of the bog and surrounding woodland vegetation: 4000–400 BC, 400 BC–AD 1700 and AD 1700–2011. Except for terrestrialisation and the fen-to-bog transition phase, the development of bog vegetation was mainly dependent on the climate until approximately AD 1700. The dominant taxon in Gązwa bog was Sphagnum fuscum/rubellum. Woodland development was significantly affected by human activity at several time periods. The most visible human activity, manifested by the decline of deciduous species, occurred ca. 350 BC, ca. AD 250, ca. AD 1350 and after AD 1700. These events correspond to phases of human settlement in the area. During 400–300 BC, the decline of deciduous trees, primarily Carpinus, coincided with an increase in indicators of human activity and fire frequency. At ca. AD 200, Carpinus and Tilia abundance decreased, corresponding to an increased importance of cereals (Secale and Triticum). Since ca. AD 1350, the impact of Teutonic settlement is apparent, and after AD 1700, deciduous forests largely disappeared.

Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of Holocene regional vegetation cover (plant-functional types and land-cover types) in Europe suitable for climate modelling

We present quantitative reconstructions of regional vegetation cover in north-western Europe, western Europe north of the Alps, and eastern Europe for five time windows in the Holocene around 6k, 3k, 0.5k, 0.2k, and 0.05k calendar years before present (bp)] at a 1 degrees x1 degrees spatial scale with the objective of producing vegetation descriptions suitable for climate modelling. The REVEALS model was applied on 636 pollen records from lakes and bogs to reconstruct the past cover of 25 plant taxa grouped into 10 plant-functional types and three land-cover types evergreen trees, summer-green (deciduous) trees, and open land]. The model corrects for some of the biases in pollen percentages by using pollen productivity estimates and fall speeds of pollen, and by applying simple but robust models of pollen dispersal and deposition. The emerging patterns of tree migration and deforestation between 6k bp and modern time in the REVEALS estimates agree with our general understanding of the vegetation history of Europe based on pollen percentages. However, the degree of anthropogenic deforestation (i.e. cover of cultivated and grazing land) at 3k, 0.5k, and 0.2k bp is significantly higher than deduced from pollen percentages. This is also the case at 6k in some parts of Europe, in particular Britain and Ireland. Furthermore, the relationship between summer-green and evergreen trees, and between individual tree taxa, differs significantly when expressed as pollen percentages or as REVEALS estimates of tree cover. For instance, when Pinus is dominant over Picea as pollen percentages, Picea is dominant over Pinus as REVEALS estimates. These differences play a major role in the reconstruction of European landscapes and for the study of land cover-climate interactions, biodiversity and human resources.

Disparities in treatment rates of paediatric end-stage renal disease across Europe: insights from the ESPN/ERA-EDTA registry.

BACKGROUND Considerable disparities exist in the provision of paediatric renal replacement therapy (RRT) across Europe. This study aims to determine whether these disparities arise from geographical differences in the occurrence of renal disease, or whether country-level access-to-care factors may be responsible. METHODS Incidence was defined as the number of new patients aged 0-14 years starting RRT per year, between 2007 and 2011, per million children (pmc), and was extracted from the ESPN/ERA-EDTA registry database for 35 European countries. Country-level indicators on macroeconomics, perinatal care and physical access to treatment were collected through an online survey and from the World Bank database. The estimated effect is presented per 1SD increase for each indicator. RESULTS The incidence of paediatric RRT in Europe was 5.4 cases pmc. Incidence decreased from Western to Eastern Europe (-1.91 pmc/1321 km, P < 0.0001), and increased from Southern to Northern Europe (0.93 pmc/838 km, P = 0.002). Regional differences in the occurrence of specific renal diseases were marginal. Higher RRT treatment rates were found in wealthier countries (2.47 pmc/€10 378 GDP per capita, P < 0.0001), among those that tend to spend more on healthcare (1.45 pmc/1.7% public health expenditure, P < 0.0001), and among countries where patients pay less out-of-pocket for healthcare (-1.29 pmc/11.7% out-of-pocket health expenditure, P < 0.0001). Country neonatal mortality was inversely related with incidence in the youngest patients (ages 0-4, -1.1 pmc/2.1 deaths per 1000 births, P = 0.10). Countries with a higher incidence had a lower average age at RRT start, which was fully explained by country GDP per capita. CONCLUSIONS Inequalities exist in the provision of paediatric RRT throughout Europe, most of which are explained by differences in country macroeconomics, which limit the provision of treatment particularly in the youngest patients. This poses a challenge for healthcare policy makers in their aim to ensure universal and equal access to high-quality healthcare services across Europe.

Major differences in organization and availability of health care and medicines for HIV/TB coinfected patients across Europe

OBJECTIVES The aim of the study was to investigate the organization and delivery of HIV and tuberculosis (TB) health care and to analyse potential differences between treatment centres in Eastern (EE) and Western Europe (WE). METHODS Thirty-eight European HIV and TB treatment centres participating in the TB:HIV study within EuroCoord completed a survey on health care management for coinfected patients in 2013 (EE: 17 respondents; WE:21; 76% of all TB:HIV centres). Descriptive statistics were obtained for regional comparisons. The reported data on health care strategies were compared with actual clinical practice at patient level via data derived from the TB:HIV study. RESULTS Respondent centres in EE comprised: Belarus (n = 3), Estonia (1), Georgia (1), Latvia (1), Lithuania (1), Poland (4), Romania (1), the Russian Federation (4) and Ukraine (1); those in WE comprised: Belgium (1), Denmark (1), France (1), Italy (7), Spain (2), Switzerland (1) and UK (8). Compared with WE, treatment of HIV and TB in EE are less often located at the same site (47% in EE versus 100% in WE; P < 0.001) and less often provided by the same doctors (41% versus 90%, respectively; P = 0.002), whereas regular screening of HIV-infected patients for TB (80% versus 40%, respectively; P = 0.037) and directly observed treatment (88% versus 20%, respectively; P < 0.001) were more common in EE. The reported availability of rifabutin and second- and third-line anti-TB drugs was lower, and opioid substitution therapy (OST) was available at fewer centres in EE compared with WE (53% versus 100%, respectively; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Major differences exist between EE and WE in relation to the organization and delivery of health care for HIV/TB-coinfected patients and the availability of anti-TB drugs and OST. Significant discrepancies between reported and actual clinical practices were found in EE.

Eastern Equatoria

The present map sheet is composed of four field maps (1:250'000) and is one of five maps in the overview series (1:500'000). The maps and the geodatabase werde prepared by the Centre for Development and Environment of the Univeristy of Berne, with funding from the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs. The map is being released as a technical contribution to support the humanitarian, peace-keeping and reconstruction efforts in Southern Sudan.

Eastern Equatoria State

The present map sheet is composed of field maps (1:250'000) and is one of nine maps of the Southern Sudan State Map Series (1:500'000). The maps and the Geodatabase were prepared by the Centre for Development and Environment of the University of Berne, with funding from the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs. The map is being released as a technical contribution to support the humanitarian, peace-keeping and reconstruction efforts in Southern Sudan.

A novel approach for assessing shifting cultivation dynamics in a regional conservation hotspot - insights from nort-eastern Madagascar

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar has been deemed a global hotspot of biodiversity due to its high levels of endemic speciesbeing heavily threatened by accelerated deforestation rates and landscape changes. The main concern for conservation of the remaining humid primary forests is the shifting cultivation practices of local smallholder farmers for rice production. According to the mainstream narrative, human population growth leads to a shortening of crop-fallow cycles and thus to the accelerated conversion of forests to agricultural land. However, little is currently known about the dynamic changes between forest and shifting cultivation systems at the regional level. Existing land cover change analyses in this area have so far only focused on binary forest to non-forest changes and have therefore failed to account for the dynamic nature of the change processes between forest and different agriculture land use systems. This can be partly explained by the significant challenge to delineate shifting cultivation systems on land cover maps using traditional remote sensing classification approaches. To address this gap we therefore applied a novel GIS approach, that was originally developed for the assessment of shifting cultivation dynamics in Laos and has so far never been applied elsewhere, to map shifting cultivation of different crop-fallow lengths as well as permanent agriculture land use at the regional level. Change analyses of land use maps between 1995 and 2011 allowed us to comprehend the general trends of land use trajectories and their spatial variation. This more detailed understanding of land use change dynamics is key to plan for successful interventions to slow forest loss while at the same time improving local livelihoods. We further believe that this approach holds great potential for conservation monitoring in this resource-rich but povertyprone conservation hotspot.

WOCAT - World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies - Preliminary results from Eastern and Southern Africa

The World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT) is a program of the World Association of Soil and Water Conservation (WASWC), organized as a consortium of several international institutions. The overall goal of WOCAT is to contribute to sustainable utilization of soil and water. WOCAT collects and analyzes information on soil and water conservation (SWC) technologies and approaches world-wide, and presents the collected information in computer databases and decision support systems, and in the form of handbooks, reports and maps readily accessible to SWC specialists and policy-makers world-wide. WOCAT has prepared a framework for the evaluation of soil and water conservation and has started data collection. The paper presents preliminary results with promising SWC technologies and approaches used in Eastern and Southern Africa. The first finding is that hardly any promising SWC activities could be found on common grazing lands. Analysis of the cropland shows some of the bio-physical and socioeconomic conditions under which certain SWC technologies and approaches are used, including land use types, climatic zones and land tenure, and looks at issues such as participation and costs. Furthermore, classification criteria for SWC technologies and approaches are discussed.

Towards mapping the late Quaternary vegetation change of Europe

The number of well-dated pollen diagrams in Europe has increased considerably over the last 30 years and many of them have been submitted to the European Pollen Database (EPD). This allows for the construction of increasingly precise maps of Holocene vegetation change across the continent. Chronological information in the EPD has been expressed in uncalibrated radiocarbon years, and most chronologies to date are based on this time scale. Here we present new chronologies for most of the datasets stored in the EPD based on calibrated radiocarbon years. Age information associated with pollen diagrams is often derived from the pollen stratigraphy itself or from other sedimentological information. We reviewed these chronological tie points and assigned uncertainties to them. The steps taken to generate the new chronologies are described and the rationale for a new classification system for age uncertainties is introduced. The resulting chronologies are fit for most continental-scale questions. They may not provide the best age model for particular sites, but may be viewed as general purpose chronologies. Taxonomic particularities of the data stored in the EPD are explained. An example is given of how the database can be queried to select samples with appropriate age control as well as the suitable taxonomic level to answer a specific research question.

Tuberculosis-related mortality in people living with HIV in Europe and Latin America: an international cohort study

BACKGROUND Management of tuberculosis in patients with HIV in eastern Europe is complicated by the high prevalence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, low rates of drug susceptibility testing, and poor access to antiretroviral therapy (ART). We report 1 year mortality estimates from a multiregional (eastern Europe, western Europe, and Latin America) prospective cohort study: the TB:HIV study. METHODS Consecutive HIV-positive patients aged 16 years or older with a diagnosis of tuberculosis between Jan 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2013, were enrolled from 62 HIV and tuberculosis clinics in 19 countries in eastern Europe, western Europe, and Latin America. The primary endpoint was death within 12 months after starting tuberculosis treatment; all deaths were classified according to whether or not they were tuberculosis related. Follow-up was either until death, the final visit, or 12 months after baseline, whichever occurred first. Risk factors for all-cause and tuberculosis-related deaths were assessed using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox models. FINDINGS Of 1406 patients (834 in eastern Europe, 317 in western Europe, and 255 in Latin America), 264 (19%) died within 12 months. 188 (71%) of these deaths were tuberculosis related. The probability of all-cause death was 29% (95% CI 26-32) in eastern Europe, 4% (3-7) in western Europe, and 11% (8-16) in Latin America (p<0·0001) and the corresponding probabilities of tuberculosis-related death were 23% (20-26), 1% (0-3), and 4% (2-8), respectively (p<0·0001). Patients receiving care outside eastern Europe had a 77% decreased risk of death: adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0·23 (95% CI 0·16-0·31). In eastern Europe, compared with patients who started a regimen with at least three active antituberculosis drugs, those who started fewer than three active antituberculosis drugs were at a higher risk of tuberculosis-related death (aHR 3·17; 95% CI 1·83-5·49) as were those who did not have baseline drug-susceptibility tests (2·24; 1·31-3·83). Other prognostic factors for increased tuberculosis-related mortality were disseminated tuberculosis and a low CD4 cell count. 18% of patients were receiving ART at tuberculosis diagnosis in eastern Europe compared with 44% in western Europe and 39% in Latin America (p<0·0001); 12 months later the proportions were 67% in eastern Europe, 92% in western Europe, and 85% in Latin America (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION Patients with HIV and tuberculosis in eastern Europe have a risk of death nearly four-times higher than that in patients from western Europe and Latin America. This increased mortality rate is associated with modifiable risk factors such as lack of drug susceptibility testing and suboptimal initial antituberculosis treatment in settings with a high prevalence of drug resistance. Urgent action is needed to improve tuberculosis care for patients living with HIV in eastern Europe. FUNDING EU Seventh Framework Programme.

Castanea sativa in Europe: distribution, habitat, usage and threats

The sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) is the only native species of the genus in Europe. The broad diffusion and active management by man resulted in the establishment of the species at the limits of its potential ecological range, which makes it difficult to trace its original natural area. The present distribution ranges from North-Western Africa (e.g. Morocco) to North-Western Europe (southern England, Belgium) and from south-western Asia (e.g. Turkey) to Eastern Europe (e.g. Romania), the Caucasus (Georgia, Armenia) and the Caspian Sea. In Europe the main chestnut forests are concentrated in a few countries such as Italy, France and the Iberian Peninsula. The sweet chestnut has a remarkable multipurpose character, and may be managed for timber production (coppice and high forest) as well as for fruit production (traditional orchards), including a broad range of secondary products and ecosystem services.

Larix decidua and other larches in Europe: distribution, habitat, usage and threats

The European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) is a pioneer, very long-lived, fast-growing coniferous tree, which occurs in the central and eastern mountains of Europe, forming open forests or pasture woods at the upper tree limits. Larch is the only deciduous conifer in Europe as an adaptation to continental alpine climates. In fact, it is able to tolerate very cold temperatures during winter and, by losing its needles, avoids foliage desiccation. It is a transitional species, colonising open terrain after natural disturbances. It forms pure stands but more often it is found with other alpine tree species, which tend to replace it if no other disturbances occur. Thanks to its adaptability and the durability of its wood, the European larch represents an important silvicultural tree species in the alpine regions, planted even outside its natural ranges. Its wood is largely used for carpentry, furniture and pulp for paper. In lower altitudes or with high precipitation rates, larch is more susceptible to fungal diseases. Outbreaks of insect defoliators, principally caused by the larch bud moth (Zeiraphera diniana), can limit tree development, with economic losses in plantations, but they rarely lead to the death of the trees.

A first chironomid-based summer temperature reconstruction (13–5 ka BP) around 49°N in inland Europe compared with local lake development

Temperature reconstructions for the end of the Pleistocene and the first half of the Holocene based on biotic proxies are rare for inland Europe around 49°N. We analysed a 7 m long sequence of lake deposits in the Vihorlat Mts in eastern Slovakia (820 m a.s.l.). Chironomid head capsules were used to reconstruct mean July temperature (TJuly), other proxies (diatoms, green algae, pollen, geochemistry) were used to reconstruct local environmental changes that might have affected the climate reconstruction, such as epilimnetic total phosphorus concentrations (TP), lake level changes and development of surrounding vegetation. During the Younger Dryas (YD), temperature fluctuated between 7 and 11 °C, with distinct, decadal to centennial scale variations, that agree with other palaeoclimate records in Europe such as δ18O content in stalagmites or Greenland ice cores. The results indicate that the site was somewhat colder than expected from the general south-to-north YD temperature gradient within Europe, possibly because of north-facing exposition. The warmer phases of the YD were characterised by low water level or even complete desiccation of the lake (12,200-12,400 cal yr BP). At the Late-Glacial/Holocene transition TJuly steeply increased from from 11 to 15.5 °C (11,700-11,400 cal yr BP) - the highest TJuly for entire sequence. This rapid climate change was reflected by all proxies as a compositional change and increasing species diversity. The open woodlands of Pinus, Betula, Larix and Picea were replaced by broad-leaved temperate forests dominated by Betula, later by Ulmus and finally by Corylus (ca 9700 cal yr BP). At the same time, input of eroded coarse-grained material into the lake decreased and organic matter (LOI) and biogenic silica increased. The Early-Holocene climate was rather stable till 8700 cal yr BP, with temporary decrease in TJuly around 11,200 cal yr BP. The lake was productive with a well-developed littoral, as indicated by both diatoms and chironomids. A distinct decline of TJuly to 10 °C between 8700 and 8000 cal yr BP was associated with decreasing chironomid diversity and increasing climate moistening indicated by pollen. Tychoplanktonic and phosphorus-demanding diatoms increased which might be explained by hydrological and land-cover changes. Later, a gradual warming started after 7000 cal yr BP and representation of macrophytes, periphytic diatoms and littoral chironomids increased. Our results suggest that the Holocene thermal maximum was taking place unusually early in the Holocene at our study site, but its timing might be affected by topography and mesoclimate. We further demonstrated that temperature changes had coincided with variations in local hydrology