An approximate Bayesian computation approach for estimating parameters of complex environmental processes in a cellular automata

Modelling an environmental process involves creating a model structure and parameterising the model with appropriate values to accurately represent the process. Determining accurate parameter values for environmental systems can be challenging. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically make assumptions regarding the form of the Likelihood, and will often ignore any uncertainty around estimated values. This can be problematic, however, particularly in complex problems where Likelihoods may be intractable. In this paper we demonstrate an Approximate Bayesian Computational method for the estimation of parameters of a stochastic CA. We use as an example a CA constructed to simulate a range expansion such as might occur after a biological invasion, making parameter estimates using only count data such as could be gathered from field observations. We demonstrate ABC is a highly useful method for parameter estimation, with accurate estimates of parameters that are important for the management of invasive species such as the intrinsic rate of increase and the point in a landscape where a species has invaded. We also show that the method is capable of estimating the probability of long distance dispersal, a characteristic of biological invasions that is very influential in determining spread rates but has until now proved difficult to estimate accurately.

Associations between perception of wellness and health-related quality of life, comorbidities, modifiable lifestyle factors and demographics in older Australians

Aim: The associations between perceived wellness and health-related quality of life, comorbidities and modifiable lifestyle factors in older adults were explored. Methods: Self-administered questionnaires including the Perceived Wellness Survey and the 36-Item Short Form of the Medical Outcomes Study version two were distributed to 328 community-living adults aged 65 years and over. Results: Results showed positive associations between perception of wellness and health-related quality of life. General health (r(249) = 0.66, P < 0.01), vitality (r(249) = 0.59, P < 0.01) and mental health (r(249) = 0.52, P < 0.01) had the strongest association; and social functioning (r(249) = 0.3, P < 0.01) and pain (r(249) = 0.36, P < 0.01) the lowest. Perceived wellness was influenced by hearing, mobility, memory, chronic disease, exercise, gambling and single status. Conclusion: The study identified that perceived wellness in older adults is a multidimensional construct.

Older drivers’ insight into their hazard perception ability

Even though the driving ability of older adults may decline with age, there is evidence that some individuals attempt to compensate for these declines using strategies such as restricting their driving exposure. Such compensatory mechanisms rely on drivers’ ability to evaluate their own driving performance. This paper focuses on one key aspect of driver ability that is associated with crash risk and has been found to decline with age: hazard perception. Three hundred and seven drivers, aged 65 to 96, completed a validated video-based hazard perception test. There was no significant relationship between hazard perception test response latencies and drivers’ ratings of their hazard perception test performance, suggesting that their ability to assess their own test performance was poor. Also, age related declines in hazard perception latency were not reflected in drivers’ self-ratings. Nonetheless, ratings of test performance were associated with self-reported regulation of driving, as was self-rated driving ability. These findings are consistent with the proposal that, while self-assessments of driving ability may be used by drivers to determine the degree to which they restrict their driving, the problem is that drivers have little insight into their own driving ability. This may impact on the potential road safety benefits of self-restriction of driving because drivers may not have the information needed to optimally self-restrict. Strategies for addressing this problem are discussed.

Acoustic component detection for automatic species recognition in environmental monitoring

Automatic species recognition plays an important role in assisting ecologists to monitor the environment. One critical issue in this research area is that software developers need prior knowledge of specific targets people are interested in to build templates for these targets. This paper proposes a novel approach for automatic species recognition based on generic knowledge about acoustic events to detect species. Acoustic component detection is the most critical and fundamental part of this proposed approach. This paper gives clear definitions of acoustic components and presents three clustering algorithms for detecting four acoustic components in sound recordings; whistles, clicks, slurs, and blocks. The experiment result demonstrates that these acoustic component recognisers have achieved high precision and recall rate.

Biological and environmental determinants

- describe the complex web of determinants as part of broad causal pathways that affect health - identify and discuss the range of physical, biological and environmental determinants that impact on health - suggest why it is important to the practice of public health that you understand how determinants contribute to health - understand the complexity of health and illness and the multifaceted role of health determinants - relate determinants of health to public health activity and realise the need for multisectoral action and multiple approaches when working to improve health

National Environmental Law Review Issue 2011: 3, Editorial: Federal Developments

Clean Energy Agreement of the MPCCC On 10 July 2011, details of the Multi-Party Climate Change Committee’s Clean Energy Agreement for implementing a carbon price were released. This included an agreed package of measures that the Committee considered would enable Australia to meet its emissions reduction targets in an environmentally and economically efficient way. A copy of the agreement can be found on the website of the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency...

Queensland Environmental Practice Reporter 17(77) (2011/2012) Editorial

This issue begins with a paper by QUT masters student, Jenny Kortlaender, which considers the effectiveness of the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity in addressing global biodiversity decline. This is followed by a paper by Fiona Leddy which critically analyses international shipping in Australian waters and the approach taken by Australia laws in addressing the risks posed by ship-based oil pollution. The third paper in this issue is by Adjunct Professor Hugh Lavery, Gina Lee and Carolyn S. Sandercoe. This paper considers the ecological principles to be followed in the sustainable design of large-scale marina developments. This paper highlights the differences between the practice of landscape ecology and the design of ecological landscapes. Finally, this issue includes a summary of relevant cases from the Queensland Planning and Environment Court and Court of Appeal by Michael Walton and Ben Job.

Environmental Awareness in Game Agents

Agents make up an important part of game worlds, ranging from the characters and monsters that live in the world to the armies the player controls. Despite their importance, agents in current games rarely display an awareness of their environment or react appropriately, which severely detracts from the believability of the game. Most games use agents that have a basic awareness of the player and other agents, but are still unaware of important game events or environmental conditions. This article describes an agent design that combines cellular automata for environmental modeling with influence maps for agent decision-making. The result is simple, flexible game agents that are able to respond to dynamic changes to the environment (e.g., rain or fire) while pursuing a goal.

Community protest groups' perceptions of environmental risks using social contagion theory

Local communities are vulnerable to the potential environmental risks associated with construction activity. Currently, little is understood about how perceptions of environmental risks are shaped and spread within a community. A better understanding of this process can help bridge the gap between developers and communities and bring about more sustainable development practices. This paper reports a research methodology which uses social contagion theory to investigate this process. The research adopts a single case study approach of a highly controversial housing project in the greater Sydney metropolitan area. The case study is particularly significant as it investigates an extensive and on-going community-based protest campaign (dating back almost 20 years) that has generated the longest standing 24 hour community picket in the New South Wales.

A study of environmental and management drivers of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in Australian agro-ecosystems

Australian climate, soils and agricultural management practices are significantly different from those of the northern hemisphere nations. Consequently, experimental data on greenhouse gas production from European and North American agricultural soils and its interpretation are unlikely to be directly applicable to Australian systems. A programme of studies of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture has been established that is designed to reduce uncertainty of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in the Australian National Greenhouse Gas Inventory and provide outputs that will enable better on-farm management practices for reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, particularly nitrous oxide. The systems being examined and their locations are irrigated pasture (Kyabram Victoria), irrigated cotton (Narrabri, NSW), irrigated maize (Griffith, NSW), rain-fed wheat (Rutherglen, Victoria) and rain-fed wheat (Cunderdin, WA). The field studies include treatments with and without fertilizer addition, stubble burning versus stubble retention, conventional cultivation versus direct drilling and crop rotation to determine emission factors and treatment possibilities for best management options. The data to date suggest that nitrous oxide emissions from nitrogen fertilizer, applied to irrigated dairy pastures and rain-fed winter wheat, appear much lower than the average of northern hemisphere grain and pasture studies. More variable emissions have been found in studies of irrigated cotton/vetch/wheat rotation and substantially higher emissions from irrigated maize.