977 resultados para Elicitation, Expert Opinion, Regression


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BACKGROUND/AIMS: For many therapeutic decisions in Crohn's disease (CD), high-grade evidence is lacking. To assist clinical decision-making, explicit panel-based appropriateness criteria were developed by an international, multidisciplinary expert panel. METHODS: 10 gastroenterologists, 3 surgeons and 2 general practitioners from 12 European countries assessed the appropriateness of therapy for CD using the RAND Appropriateness Method. Their assessment was based on the study of a recent literature review of the subject, combined with their own expert clinical judgment. Panelists rated clinical indications and treatment options using a 9-point scale (1 = extremely inappropriate; 9 = extremely appropriate). These scenarios were then discussed in detail at the panel meeting and re-rated. Median ratings and disagreement were used to aggregate ratings into three assessment categories: appropriate (A), uncertain (U) and inappropriate (I). RESULTS: 569 specific indications were rated, dealing with 9 clinical presentations: mild/moderate luminal CD (n = 104), severe CD (n = 126), steroid-dependent CD (n = 25), steroid-refractory CD (n = 37), fistulizing CD (n = 49), fibrostenotic CD (n = 35), maintenance of medical remission of CD (n = 84), maintenance of surgical remission (n = 78), drug safety in pregnancy (n = 24) and use of infliximab (n = 7). Overall, 146 indications (26%) were judged appropriate, 129 (23%) uncertain and 294 (52%) inappropriate. Frank disagreement was low (14% overall) with the greatest disagreement (54% of scenarios) being observed for treatment of steroid-refractory disease. CONCLUSIONS: Detailed explicit appropriateness criteria for the appropriate use of therapy for CD were developed for the first time by a European expert panel. Disease location, severity and previous treatments were the main factors taken into account. User-friendly access to EPACT criteria is available via an Internet site, www.epact.ch, allowing prospective evaluation and improvement of appropriateness of current CD therapy.

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In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.

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This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

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The aging process is associated with gradual and progressive loss of muscle mass along with lowered strength and physical endurance. This condition, sarcopenia, has been widely observed with aging in sedentary adults. Regular aerobic and resistance exercise programs have been shown to counteract most aspects of sarcopenia. In addition, good nutrition, especially adequate protein and energy intake, can help limit and treat age-related declines in muscle mass, strength, and functional abilities. Protein nutrition in combination with exercise is considered optimal for maintaining muscle function. With the goal of providing recommendations for health care professionals to help older adults sustain muscle strength and function into older age, the European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism (ESPEN) hosted a Workshop on Protein Requirements in the Elderly, held in Dubrovnik on November 24 and 25, 2013. Based on the evidence presented and discussed, the following recommendations are made (a) for healthy older people, the diet should provide at least 1.0-1.2 g protein/kg body weight/day, (b) for older people who are malnourished or at risk of malnutrition because they have acute or chronic illness, the diet should provide 1.2-1.5 g protein/kg body weight/day, with even higher intake for individuals with severe illness or injury, and (c) daily physical activity or exercise (resistance training, aerobic exercise) should be undertaken by all older people, for as long as possible.

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Background: Thin melanomas (Breslow thickness <= 1 mm) are considered highly curable. The aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation between histological tumour regression and sentinel lymph node (SLN) involvement in thin melanomas. Patients and methods: This was a retrospective single-centre study of 34 patients with thin melanomas undergoing SLN biopsy between April 1998 and January 2005. Results: The study included 14 women and 20 men of mean age 56.3 years. Melanomas were located on the neck (n = 3), soles (n = 4), trunk (n = 13) and extremities (n = 14). Pathological examination showed 25 SSM, four acral lentiginous melanomas, three in situ melanomas, one nodular melanoma and one unclassified melanoma with a mean Breslow thickness of 0.57 mm. Histological tumour regression was observed in 26 over 34 cases and ulceration was found in one case. Clark levels were as follows: I (n = 3), II (n = 20), III (n = 9), IV (n = 2). Growth phase was available in 15 cases (seven radial and eight vertical). Mitotic rates, available in 24 cases, were: 0 (n = 9), 1 (n = 11), 2 (n = 2), 3 (n = 1), 6 (n = 1). One patient with histological tumour regression (2.9% of cases and 3.8% of cases with regressing tumours) had a metastatic SLN. One patient negative for SLN had a lung relapse and died of the disease. Mean follow-up was 26.2 months. Conclusion: The results of the present study and the analysis of the literature show that histological regression of the primary tumour does not seem predictive of higher risk of SLN involvement in thin melanomas. This suggests that screening for SLN is not indicated in thin melanomas, even those with histological regression.

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Giant cell arteritis (GCA) (or Horton's disease) is a systemic disease affecting the vessels of medium and large sizes. The incidence increases with age (the disease develops rarely before age 50) and the etiology remains unknown. Clinical manifestations may vary (including asthenia, temporal headache, visual disturbances, etc.) and GCA can potentially lead to dramatic consequences (permanent loss of vision). Although some anomalies in the investigations may help in the diagnosis of GCA, research and confirmation of the diagnosis of GCA may be difficult, especially when the symptoms presented by patients are spread out in time and appear to be nonspecific at first.

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In November 1997, the Department of Health and Children established an expert group to examine and make recommendations on an appropriate system and criteria for the assessment of hearing disability arising from hearing loss, with particular reference to noise induced hearing loss. The group was to prepare a report for the Minister for Health and Children. Download the Report here

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The Expert Group on Radiography Grades was established in accordance with proposals from the Labour Relations Commission. Its aim was to examine and make recommendations for the future development of the profession and the diagnostic imaging and therapy services which ensure the highest level of patient care is delivered in a modern health environment Download the Report here

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The Labour Relations Commission (Ref. CC97/566) in May 1997, recommended the establishment of an Expert Group for medical laboratory technicians/technologists as part of a set of proposals to settle their pay claims under the PCW. Download the Report here

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This Report proposes a framework of mental health service delivery with the service user at its centre. The emphasis is firmly on recovery and on facilitating active partnerships between service users, carers and mental health  professionals. Its recommendations are innovative and some of them are challenging. However, I have nodoubt that their implementation will bring about farreaching change and modernisation in the Irish mentalhealth services, which will be to the benefit of everyone concerned.” Tim O'Malley T.D.Minister of State at the Department of Health & Childrenwith special responsibility for mental health Download the Report (PDF, 1mb)

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Third Annual Report of the Independent Monitoring Group for A Vision for Change – the Report of the Expert Group on Mental Health Policy – April 2009 Click here to download PDF 322kb