An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

O método Lancasteriano e o projeto de formação disciplinar do povo (São Paulo, 1808-1889)

Pós-graduação em História - FCLAS

Esboço de uma teoria sobre as elites políticas no Brasil Republicano

Dentro de uma visão historicista o Autor pretende esboçar uma teoria sobre o comportamento das elites de poder político no Brasil republicano.

The Acting in Group of Teachers as Possibility of Resignification of the Interpretation about the Writing Language

Front of the possibility of acting with the teachers who teach in schools of Early Childhood Education for children aged six years, about the re-siginification of the understanding of writing language and of the importance of the child in this age group establish a positive relationship with this mode of language, was developed in 2011, a project linked to the Teaching of UNESP titled “Depathologization learning of the writing and inclusive education: reflections and actions of the teacher of Early Childhood Education”. This project aims to identification of the actions, in the classroom, of the patologization and subsequent implementation of actions depathologization writing by teachers’ actions, considering the increasingly early systematization of formal education of this kind of language in kindergarten. To this end, procedures that characterize the collaborative methodology are adopted. Throughout the methodological course, the engagement of the teachers, of the coordination and of the direction was valued, which seemed to favor both the formation, as the maintenance of the group, were very important aspects to ensure the interaction between its members and the common interest in the reflection about the topic in question. This paper focuses attention on whether thematic axes highlight during the initial survey of the expectations of teachers subsequently addressed in theoretical and reflective meetings leading up to identification of actions the patologization and/or of the proposition of the actions despatologizadoras of the learning of the writing, and in what refers to the way they are addressed.

Retratos de mulheres na literatura brasileira do século XIX

The aim of this article is to broaden our understanding of education and the concept of womanhood in the Brazilian society of the 19th century. On the basis of the analysis of a number of novels typical of the period it is concluded that novels had or intended to have a pedagogical function among the educated elite in the education of women. In this way, literature constituted an expression of a dominant and socially determined conception of womanhood and a pedagogical instrument that imposed social values.

Collaborative language learning in Teletandem: a resource for pre-service teacher education

This article presents some of the results of a qualitative research project about the influences of the pedagogic strategies used by a mediator (graduate student in applied linguistics) in the supervision process of a Teletandem partner (undergraduate student in languages) on her pedagogical practice. It was done within the project Teletandem Brazil: foreign language for all. Based on the reflective teaching paradigm and collaborative language learning, with special emphasis on tandem learning, we analyzed the contributions of the collaborative relationship established between the graduate student and the student-teacher in her first teaching experience. The results bring about implications for the field of language teacher education in a perspective of education within practice, evidencing the experience of collaborative learning in teletandem as an opportunity for reflective teacher education of pre-service teachers.

Perception of brazilian citizens about Darwinism and the (Non) Influence of God in the evolutionary process

The current context is unique in relation to the teaching of evolution in Brazil and the population's perception of evolution. On the one hand, it is said often about Darwinism in various media, especially due to the relatively recent commemoration of the two hundred years of the birth of Charles Darwin and one hundred and fifty years of the launch of the book The Origin of Species. On the other hand, it is clear, in recent years, a timid movement, more worryingly, in favor of equitable approach of creationist and evolutionist theories in the classroom. This article is a part of a research whose goal is to raise the design that Brazilian respondents have about the Darwinian view (which disregards the divine influence in the evolution of the species). The instrument used for data collection is a questionnaire, type Likert scale, which consists of a series of statements in which respondents must express their degree of agreement or disagreement with each statement. In this study, we present the results of the statement. "The thought of Darwin, which does not consider God as a participant in the process of evolution, is...". Analysis correlated with data on religion and education of the respondents are also held. The results point to a tendency of respondents not to accept the Darwinian view that disregards God's interference in the evolutionary process. The data also show that respondents' choices are influenced by religion and education. The frequency of responses that tend to accept the Darwinian view (which disregards the divine participation in the evolution of the species) is higher among respondents with higher levels of education. Adherents to religions "evangelical" tend to deny this view more often than followers of other religions. Given the potential risks of inserting creationist approaches in school education, it is necessary a discussion of the possible impacts of this rejection of Darwin's thinking (which does not consider God as a participant in the evolutionary process), indicated here, in the teaching of evolution. This work was supported by FAPEMIG.

School activities in health education and their impact on parents

There is little empirical evidence establishing the value of schoolhouse education of children and the repercussions on their families; a quantitative analysis of instructional intervention in health and its reflection on the family permits quantification of its effectiveness outside of the school setting. To this end, we utilized instruction on head lice in schoolchildren was conducted. A randomized sample of those responsible for students enrolled from the third to fifth grade, from two public schools who had taken an instructional module on pediculosis, were invited to respond to a questionnaire that aimed to ascertain their opinions on the instruction and what its impact was on their family. The variables were assessed by univariat analysis. Of 155 total respondents, 89.9% were the parents of the students. The students that had infestation, in turn, had greater capacity to influence the family on measures against lice. The majority of those responsible supported the instruction and reported being satisfied with the school for having addressed the theme. When the subject pertains to the reality of the students, the school-family link is strengthened. Instruction on pediculosis in school helps bridge the gap between the theoretical and the practical, a harmonization required in health education.

Educational intervention regarding hypothermia: a teaching strategy for education in the Surgery Department

This is a quasi-experimental study performed using a short-term educational intervention involving nursing aides working in a Surgery Department, with the objective to identify the social and professional characteristics of the nursing aides, identify the differences in their knowledge regarding hypothermia following the educational intervention, and relate the nursing actions to the studied variables. It was found that the educational intervention was effective, considering that the difference in the mean nursing actions was 5.35 following the intervention. However, no significant difference was found regarding the nursing actions related to the studied variables. Further studies should be performed to investigate the education of nursing professionals considering their significant learning requirements in different units.

Job satisfaction among control room operators of electrical systems

Shift workers from control centers of electrical systems are a group that has received little attention in Brazil. This study aimed to compare workers' job satisfaction at five control centers of a Brazilian company electrical system, and according to their job titles. Method: The Organization Satisfaction Index (OSI) questionnaire to assess job satisfaction was used. ANOVA was used to compare OSI means, according to job title and control center. The results showed that there is no difference in job satisfaction among job titles, but a significant difference was found according to the control center. A single organizational culture cannot be applied to several branches. It is required to implement actions that would result in job satisfaction improvements among workers of all studied control rooms centers. The high level of education of operators working in all centers might have contributed to the similar values of perceived satisfaction among distinct job titles.

Evaluation of the prevalence and nutritional and social determinants of overweight in a population of schoolchildren: a cross-sectional analysis of 5,037 children

Objective: To evaluate the prevalence and nutritional and social determinants of overweight in a population of schoolchildren in Southern Brazil. Methods: Cross-sectional descriptive study of 5,037 children of both genders, between 6 and 10.9 years of age, from public and private schools of Maringa, Parana, Brazil. Evaluation of factors associated with excess weight (overweight and obesity) included gender, age, school type, socioeconomic level, education of the head of the family, eating habits, and means of commuting to school. After univariate analysis (Fisher's exact test), we adjusted a logistic regression model and used Wald's test for decision-making (p < 0.05). Results: The mean age was 8.7 +/- 1.3 years, with 52.8% females; 79.1% of the students attended public school and 54.6% had families of socioeconomic class A or B. Regarding nutritional status, 24% of children were overweight (7% obesity, 17% overweight). Being male, attending a private school, and having a head of the family with over four years of education were significantly associated with excess weight. In relation to food, inadequate intake of,carbohydrates was associated with a 48% greater chance of overweight/obesity (p < 0.001; OR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.25-1.76), Conclusion: The prevalence of overweight found in this study is approximate to that reported in national studies. Its association with gender and inadequate food intake indicates that these factors should be considered in initiatives aimed at preventive measures in childhood.

Measurement of electrons from semileptonic heavy-flavor hadron decays in pp collisions at root s=7 TeV

The differential production cross section of electrons from semileptonic heavy-flavor hadron decays has been measured at midrapidity (\y\ < 0.5) in proton-proton collisions at root s = 7 TeV with ALICE at the LHC. Electrons were measured in the transverse momentum range 0.5 < p(t) < 8 GeV/c. Predictions from a fixed-order perturbative QCD calculation with next-to-leading-log resummation agree with the data within the theoretical and experimental uncertainties. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevD.86.112007

Provisional Biopharmaceutical Classification of Some Common Herbs Used in Western Medicine

The aim of this study was to classify some markers of common herbs used in Western medicine according to the Biopharmaceutical Classification System (BCS). The BCS is a scientific approach to classify drug substances based upon their intestinal permeability and their solubility, at the highest single dose used, within the physiologically relevant pH ranges. Known marker components of twelve herbs were chosen from the USP Dietary Supplement Compendium Monographs. Different BCS parameters such as intestinal permeability (P-eff) and solubility (C-s) were predicted using the ADMET Predictor, which is a software program to estimate biopharmaceutical relevant molecular descriptors. The dose number (D-0) was calculated when information from the literature was available to identify an upper dose for individual markers. In these cases the herbs were classified according to the traditional BCS parameters using Peff and Do. When no upper dose could be determined, then the amount of a marker that is just soluble in 250 mL of water was calculated. This value, M-x, defines when a marker is changing from highly soluble to poorly soluble according to BCS criteria. This biopharmaceutically relevant value can be a useful tool for marker selection. The present study showed that a provisional BCS classification of herbs is possible but some special considerations need to be included into the classification strategy. The BCS classification can be used to choose appropriate quality control tests for products containing these markers. A provisional BCS classification of twelve common herbs and their 35 marker compounds is presented.

Sequential Methyl-Fluorine Exchange Reactions of Siloxide Ions in the Gas Phase

Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR)

Influence of Clinically Invisible, but Optical Coherence Tomography Detected, Optic Disc Margin Anatomy on Neuroretinal Rim Evaluation

PURPOSE. We previously demonstrated that most eyes have regionally variable extensions of Bruch's membrane (BM) inside the clinically identified disc margin (DM) that are clinically and photographically invisible. We studied the impact of these findings on DM- and BM opening (BMO)-derived neuroretinal rim parameters. METHODS. Disc stereo-photography and spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT, 24 radial B-scans centered on the optic nerve head) were performed on 30 glaucoma patients and 10 age-matched controls. Photographs were colocalized to SD-OCT data such that the DM and BMO could be visualized in each B-scan. Three parameters were computed: (1) DM-horizontal rim width (HRW), the distance between the DM and internal limiting membrane (ILM) along the DM reference plane; (2) BMO-HRW, the distance between BMO and ILM along the BMO reference plane; and (3) BMO-minimum rim width (MRW), the minimum distance between BMO and ILM. Rank-order correlations of sectors ranked by rim width and spatial concordance measured as angular distances between equivalently ranked sectors were derived. RESULTS. The average DM position was external to BMO in all quadrants, except inferotemporally. There were significant sectoral differences among all three rim parameters. DM- HRW and BMO-HRW sector ranks were better correlated (median rho = 0.84) than DM- HRW and BMO-MRW (median rho = 0.55), or BMO-HRW and BMO-MRW (median rho = 0.60) ranks. Sectors with the narrowest BMO-MRW were infrequently the same as those with the narrowest DM-HRW or BMO-HRW. CONCLUSIONS. BMO-MRW quantifies the neuroretinal rim from a true anatomical outer border and accounts for its variable trajectory at the point of measurement. (Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2012;53:1852-1860) DOI:10.1167/iovs.11-9309