Bicorrelations and cross-bicorrelations as non-linearity tests and tools for exchange rate forecasting

This paper proposes and implements a new methodology for forecasting time series, based on bicorrelations and cross-bicorrelations. It is shown that the forecasting technique arises as a natural extension of, and as a complement to, existing univariate and multivariate non-linearity tests. The formulations are essentially modified autoregressive or vector autoregressive models respectively, which can be estimated using ordinary least squares. The techniques are applied to a set of high-frequency exchange rate returns, and their out-of-sample forecasting performance is compared to that of other time series models

Ethics of care in supporting disabled forced migrants: interactions with professionals and ethical dilemmas in health and social care in the South-East of England

This article explores the interactions between disabled forced migrants with care needs and professionals and the restrictive legal, policy and practice context that health and social care professionals have to confront, based on the findings of a qualitative study with 45 participants in the South-East of England. In-depth interviews were conducted with 15 forced migrants who had diverse impairments and chronic illnesses (8 women and 7 men), 13 family caregivers and 17 support workers and strategic professionals working in social care and the third sector in Slough, Reading and London. The legal status of forced migrants significantly affects their entitlements to health and social care provision, resulting in prolonged periods of destitution for many families. National asylum support policies, difficult working relationships with UK Border Agency, higher eligibility thresholds and reduced social care budgets of local authorities were identified as significant barriers in responding to the support needs of disabled forced migrants and family caregivers. In this context, social workers experienced considerable ethical dilemmas. The research raises profound questions about the potential and limitations of health and social care policies, provision, and practice as means of protection and support in fulfilling the human rights of forced migrants with care needs.

Structure of the planetary boundary layer over southeast England: modeling and measurements

The Weather Research and Forecasting model was applied to analyze variations in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) structure over Southeast England including central and suburban London. The parameterizations and predictive skills of two nonlocal mixing PBL schemes, YSU and ACM2, and two local mixing PBL schemes, MYJ and MYNN2, were evaluated over a variety of stability conditions, with model predictions at a 3 km grid spacing. The PBL height predictions, which are critical for scaling turbulence and diffusion in meteorological and air quality models, show significant intra-scheme variance (> 20%), and the reasons are presented. ACM2 diagnoses the PBL height thermodynamically using the bulk Richardson number method, which leads to a good agreement with the lidar data for both unstable and stable conditions. The modeled vertical profiles in the PBL, such as wind speed, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and heat flux, exhibit large spreads across the PBL schemes. The TKE predicted by MYJ were found to be too small and show much less diurnal variation as compared with observations over London. MYNN2 produces better TKE predictions at low levels than MYJ, but its turbulent length scale increases with height in the upper part of the strongly convective PBL, where it should decrease. The local PBL schemes considerably underestimate the entrainment heat fluxes for convective cases. The nonlocal PBL schemes exhibit stronger mixing in the mean wind fields under convective conditions than the local PBL schemes and agree better with large-eddy simulation (LES) studies.

Analysis and manipulation of the structure of odor plumes from a piezo-electric release system and measurements of upwind flight of male Almond Moths, Cadra cautella, to pheromone plumes

We investigated the plume structure of a piezo-electric sprayer system, set up to release ethanol in a wind tunnel, using a fast response mini-photoionizaton detector. We recorded the plume structure of four different piezo-sprayer configurations: the sprayer alone; with a 1.6-mm steel mesh shield; with a 3.2-mm steel mesh shield; and with a 5 cm circular upwind baffle. We measured a 12 × 12-mm core at the center of the plume, and both a horizontal and vertical cross-section of the plume, all at 100-, 200-, and 400-mm downwind of the odor source. Significant differences in plume structure were found among all configurations in terms of conditional relative mean concentration, intermittency, ratio of peak concentration to conditional mean concentration, and cross-sectional area of the plume. We then measured the flight responses of the almond moth, Cadra cautella, to odor plumes generated with the sprayer alone, and with the upwind baffle piezo-sprayer configuration, releasing a 13:1 ratio of (9Z,12E)-tetradecadienyl acetate and (Z)-9-tetradecenyl acetate diluted in ethanol at release rates of 1, 10, 100, and 1,000 pg/min. For each configuration, differences in pheromone release rate resulted in significant differences in the proportions of moths performing oriented flight and landing behaviors. Additionally, there were apparent differences in the moths’ behaviors between the two sprayer configurations, although this requires confirmation with further experiments. This study provides evidence that both pheromone concentration and plume structure affect moth orientation behavior and demonstrates that care is needed when setting up experiments that use a piezo-electric release system to ensure the optimal conditions for behavioral observations.

Budgeting and resource allocation in universities, a public choice approach

The calls urging colleges and universities to improve their productivity are coming thick and fast in Brazil. Many studies are suggesting evaluation systems and external criteria to control universities production in qualitative terms. Since universities and colleges are not profit-oriented organizations (considering just the fair and serious researching and teaching organizations, of course) the traditional microeconomics and administrative variables used to measure efficiency do not have any direct function. In this sense, It could be created a as if market control system to evaluate universities and colleges production. The budget and the allocation resources mechanism inside it can be used as an incentive instrument to improve quality and productivity. It will be the main issue of this paper.

Developing and enhancing library physical space: the challenges posed by the digital library

Trabalho apresentado na conferência Os Desafios das Bibliotecas Digitais realizado na Fundação Getulio Vargas em agosto 2014

OVARIAN HISTOLOGY and FOLLICULAR SCORE IN FEMALE RATS TREATED WITH NANDROLONE DECANOATE and SUBMITTED TO PHYSICAL EFFORT

The study was conducted to analyze the histology of the ovaries of adults rats treated with steroids, and submitted or not to physical effort. The control group consisted of females submitted to physical effort and sedentary females, both of which received a physiological solution of 0.9% saline. Treated females, sedentary or not, received 6 mg/kg of body weight of nandrolone decanoate. The steroid and physiological solution were administered intraperitoneally, with a single injection per week for 4 consecutive weeks. The applied physical effort was swimming (20 minutes daily, 5 days/week, for the 4 weeks of treatment). Serial sections (5 mu m) of ovaries were prepared for histological evaluation and follicular score. The weight of ovaries and hypophysis, the number of antral and atretic follicles, and the area of corpus luteum were all affected by the steroids. In the ovaries of the control groups, well-developed corpus luteum was observed. In the treated groups, the cortical stroma was occupied by ovarian interstitial tissue. The females treated with steroids presented estral acyclicity. The use of nandrolone decanoate, whether associated with physical effort or not, affected the morphological pattern of the ovaries.

Sleep bruxism increases the risk for painful temporomandibular disorder, depression and non-specific physical symptoms

To explore the relationship between sleep bruxism (SB), painful temporomandibular disorders (TMD) and psychologic status in a cross-sectional study. The sample consisted of 272 individuals. The Research Diagnostic Criteria for TMD (RDC/TMD) was used to diagnose TMD; SB was diagnosed by clinical criteria proposed by The American Academy of Sleep Medicine. The sample was divided into four groups: (1) patients without painful TMD and without SB, (2) patients without painful TMD and with SB, (3) patients with painful TMD and without SB and (4) patients with painful TMD and with SB. Data were analysed by Odds Ratio test with a 95% confidence interval. Patients with SB had an increased risk for the occurrence of myofascial pain (OR = 5.93, 95% CI: 3.1911.02) and arthralgia (2.34, 1.583.46). Group 3 had an increased risk for moderate/severe depression and non-specific physical symptoms (10.1, 3.6727.79; 14.7, 5.3939.92, respectively), and this risk increased in the presence of SB (25.0, 9.6564.77; 35.8, 13.9491.90, respectively). SB seems to be a risk factor for painful TMD, and this in turn is a risk factor for the occurrence of higher depression and non-specific physical symptoms levels, but a causeeffect relationship could not be established.

Depressive symptoms and level of physical activity in patients with Alzheimer's disease

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Caries risk tests and salivary levels of immunoglobulins to Streptococcus mutans and Candida albicans in mouthbreathing syndrome patients

The aim of this study was to compare microbiological and salivary variables possibly related to caries risk in treated and untreated mouthbreathing syndrome (MBS) children and control children. Thirty control children, 30 mouthbreathers and 25 treated mouthbreathers were studied for the numbers of lactobacilli, mutans streptococci and yeasts in their saliva. Snyder's test, salivary flow and buffering capacity were also evaluated. Levels of immunoglobulins to Candida albicans and Streptococcus mutans in the saliva were quantified using ELISA. Considering the results obtained for the microbiological and salivary caries risk tests, no significant differences were observed among the proportions of patients with small/negative and high/moderate caries risk in the studied groups. The level of IgG to S. mutans was significantly higher in the treated MBS group in relation to MBS patients. on the other hand, the median anti-S. mutans IgM level was lower in the treated MBS patients than in the other groups. For the studied anti-Candida immunoglobulins, IgM level was significantly lower in the treated MBS group than in the other groups. No differences were observed for anti-S. mutans and anti-Candida IgA levels among the groups. The findings suggest that mouthbreathing cannot be considered a risk factor for dental caries. Copyright (C) 2003 S. KargerAG, Basel.

Diagnosis of canine brucellosis: Comparison between serological and microbiological tests and a PCR based on primers to 16S-23S rDNA interspacer

A pair of primers directed to 16S-23S rDNA interspacer (ITS) was designed directed to Brucella genetic sequences in order to develop a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) putatively capable of amplifying DNA from any Brucella species. Nucleic acid extracts from whole-blood from naive dogs were spiked with decreasing amounts of Brucella canis RM6/66 DNA and the resulting solutions were tested by PCR. In addition, the ability of PCR to amplify Brucella spp. genetic sequences from naturally infected dogs was evaluated using 210 whole-blood samples of dogs from 19 kennels. The whole-blood samples collected were subjected to blood culture and PCR. Serodiagnosis was performed using the rapid slide agglutination test with and without 2-mercaptoethanol. The DNA from whole blood was extracted using proteinase-K, sodium dodecyl sulphate and cetyl trimethyl ammonium bromide followed by phenol-chloroform purification. The PCR was capable of detecting as little as 3.8 fg of Brucella DNA mixed with 450 ng of host DNA. Theoretically, 3.8 fg of Brucella DNA represents the total genomic mass of fewer than two bacterial cells. The PCR diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were 100%. From the results observed in the present study, we conclude that PCR could be used as confirmatory test for diagnosis of B. canis infection.