Software Engineering Models

This presentation gives a high level introduction to modelling in software engineering. It looks in detail at how to model behaviour, in particular using UML Activity Diagrams.

Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models

Este documento estima modelos lineales y no-lineales de corrección de errores para los precios spot de cuatro tipos de café. En concordancia con las leyes económicas, se encuentra evidencia que cuando los precios están por encima de su nivel de equilibrio, retornan a éste mas lentamente que cuando están por debajo. Esto puede reflejar el hecho que, en el corto plazo, para los países productores de café es mas fácil restringir la oferta para incrementar precios, que incrementarla para reducirlos. Además, se encuentra evidencia que el ajuste es más rápido cuando las desviaciones del equilibrio son mayores. Los pronósticos que se obtienen a partir de los modelos de corrección de errores no lineales y asimétricos considerados en el trabajo, ofrecen una leve mejoría cuando se comparan con los pronósticos que resultan de un modelo de paseo aleatorio.

An Empirical Examination of the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Firm-Level Analysis for the Colombian Economy

We use a large firm level data set to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment(FDI) in Colombia. We estimate econometric models for the determinants of the probabilitythat a firm receives FDI, as well as for the factors that help to explain the foreign share in afirm’s capital. The results show that firms listed on the stock market, involved in foreign tradeactivities, and operating in sectors with greater capital intensity are more likely to be recipientsof FDI. Also, the probability of a firm receiving FDI is directly related to its size.

Avaluació de la toxicitat de metalls pesants i arsènic en diferents models biològics

En aquest estudi, la toxicitat de diversos metalls pesants i l'arsènic va ser analitzada utilitzant diferents models biològics. En la primera part d'aquest treball, el bioassaig de toxicitat Microtox, el qual està basat en la variació de l'emissió lumínica del bacteri luminiscent Vibrio fischeri, va ser utilitzat per establir les corbes dosi-resposta de diferents elements tòxics com el Zn(II), Pb(II), Cu(II), Hg(II), Ag(I), Co(II), Cd(II), Cr(VI), As(V) i As(III) en solucions aquoses. Els experiments es varen portar a terme a pH 6.0 i 7.0 per tal de mostrar que el pH pot influir en la toxicitat final mesurada d'alguns metalls degut als canvis relacionats amb la seva especiació química. Es varen trobar diferents tipus de corbes dosi-resposta depenent del metall analitzat i el pH del medi. En el cas de l'arsènic, l'efecte del pH en la toxicitat de l'arsenat i l'arsenit es va investigar utilitzant l'assaig Microtox en un rang de pHs comprès entre pH 5.0 i 9.0. Els valors d'EC50 determinats per l'As(V) disminueixen, reflectint un augment de la toxicitat, a mesura que el pH de la solució augmenta mentre que, en el cas de l'As(III), els valors d'EC50 quasi bé no varien entre pH 6.0 i 8.0 i només disminueixen a pH 9.0. HAsO42- i H2AsO3- es varen definir com les espècies més tòxiques. Així mateix, una anàlisi estadística va revelar un efecte antagònic entre les espècies químiques d'arsenat que es troben conjuntament a pH 6.0 i 7.0. D'altra banda, els resultats de dos mètodes estadístics per predir la toxicitat i les possibles interaccions entre el Co(II), Cd(II), Cu(II), Zn(II) i Pb(II) en mescles binàries equitòxiques es varen comparar amb la toxicitat observada sobre el bacteri Vibrio fischeri. L'efecte combinat d'aquests metalls va resultar ser antagònic per les mescles de Co(II)-Cd(II), Cd(II)-Zn(II), Cd(II)-Pb(II) i Cu(II)-Pb(II), sinèrgic per Co(II)-Cu(II) i Zn(II)-Pb(II) i additiu en els altres casos, revelant un patró complex de possibles interaccions. L'efecte sinèrgic de la combinació Co(II)-Cu(II) i la forta disminució de la toxicitat del Pb(II) quan es troba en presència de Cd(II) hauria de merèixer més atenció quan s'estableixen les normatives de seguretat ambiental. La sensibilitat de l'assaig Microtox també va ser determinada. Els valors d'EC20, els quals representen la toxicitat llindar mesurable, varen ser determinats per cada element individualment i es va veure que augmenten de la següent manera: Pb(II) < Ag(I) < Hg(II)  Cu(II) < Zn(II) < As(V) < Cd(II)  Co(II) < As(III) < Cr(VI). Aquests valors es varen comparar amb les concentracions permeses en aigues residuals industrials establertes per la normativa oficial de Catalunya (Espanya). L'assaig Microtox va resultar ser suficientment sensible per detectar els elements assajats respecte a les normes oficials referents al control de la contaminació, excepte en el cas del cadmi, mercuri, arsenat, arsenit i cromat. En la segona part d'aquest treball, com a resultats complementaris dels resultats previs obtinguts utilitzant l'assaig de toxicitat aguda Microtox, els efectes crònics del Cd(II), Cr(VI) i As(V) es varen analitzar sobre la taxa de creixement i la viabilitat en el mateix model biològic. Sorprenentment, aquests productes químics nocius varen resultar ser poc tòxics per aquest bacteri quan es mesura el seu efecte després de temps d'exposició llargs. Tot i això, en el cas del Cr(VI), l'assaig d'inhibició de la viabilitat va resultar ser més sensible que l'assaig de toxicitat aguda Microtox. Així mateix, també va ser possible observar un clar fenomen d'hormesis, especialment en el cas del Cd(II), quan s'utilitza l'assaig d'inhibició de la viabilitat. A més a més, diversos experiments es varen portar a terme per intentar explicar la manca de toxicitat de Cr(VI) mostrada pel bacteri Vibrio fischeri. La resistència mostrada per aquest bacteri podria ser atribuïda a la capacitat d'aquest bacteri de convertir el Cr(VI) a la forma menys tòxica de Cr(III). Es va trobar que aquesta capacitat de reducció depèn de la composició del medi de cultiu, de la concentració inicial de Cr(VI), del temps d'incubació i de la presència d'una font de carboni. En la tercera part d'aquest treball, la línia cel·lular humana HT29 i cultius primaris de cèl·lules sanguínies de Sparus sarba es varen utilitzar in vitro per detectar la toxicitat llindar de metalls mesurant la sobreexpressió de proteines d'estrès. Extractes de fangs precedents de diverses plantes de tractament d'aigues residuals i diferents metalls, individualment o en combinació, es varen analitzar sobre cultius cel·lulars humans per avaluar el seu efecte sobre la taxa de creixement i la capacitat d'induir la síntesi de les proteïnes Hsp72 relacionades amb l'estrès cel·lular. No es varen trobar efectes adversos significatius quan els components s'analitzen individualment. Nogensmenys, quan es troben conjuntament, es produeix un afecte advers sobre tan la taxa de creixement com en l'expressió de proteins d'estrès. D'altra banda, cèl·lules sanguínies procedents de Sparus sarba es varen exposar in vitro a diferents concentracions de cadmi, plom i crom. La proteïna d'estrès HSP70 es va sobreexpressar significativament després de l'exposició a concentracions tan febles com 0.1 M. Sota les nostres condicions de treball, no es va evidenciar una sobreexpressió de metal·lotioneïnes. Nogensmenys, les cèl·lules sanguínies de peix varen resultar ser un model biològic interessant per a ser utilitzat en anàlisis de toxicitat. Ambdós models biològics varen resultar ser molt adequats per a detectar acuradament la toxicitat produïda per metalls. En general, l'avaluació de la toxicitat basada en l'anàlisi de la sobreexpressió de proteïnes d'estrès és més sensible que l'avaluació de la toxicitat realitzada a nivell d'organisme. A partir dels resultats obtinguts, podem concloure que una bateria de bioassaigs és realment necessària per avaluar acuradament la toxicitat de metalls ja que existeixen grans variacions entre els valors de toxicitat obtinguts emprant diferents organismes i molts factors ambientals poden influir i modificar els resultats obtinguts.

Simplification, approximation and deformation of large models

The high level of realism and interaction in many computer graphic applications requires techniques for processing complex geometric models. First, we present a method that provides an accurate low-resolution approximation from a multi-chart textured model that guarantees geometric fidelity and correct preservation of the appearance attributes. Then, we introduce a mesh structure called Compact Model that approximates dense triangular meshes while preserving sharp features, allowing adaptive reconstructions and supporting textured models. Next, we design a new space deformation technique called *Cages based on a multi-level system of cages that preserves the smoothness of the mesh between neighbouring cages and is extremely versatile, allowing the use of heterogeneous sets of coordinates and different levels of deformation. Finally, we propose a hybrid method that allows to apply any deformation technique on large models obtaining high quality results with a reduced memory footprint and a high performance.

Global models for concrete realities

This paper intends to analyze the evolution of the Ecomuseums from their early appearance in the seventies until the present, emphasizing the characteristics which make them unique and different from all the other museums. This analysis will be used to show the Japanese landscape on ecomuseums and how the ecomuseum evolution might be a reference at internatioal level.

Semantic-level Visual Content Descriptor combining visual and textual cues as collaterals

In this paper, we introduce a novel high-level visual content descriptor which is devised for performing semantic-based image classification and retrieval. The work can be treated as an attempt to bridge the so called “semantic gap”. The proposed image feature vector model is fundamentally underpinned by the image labelling framework, called Collaterally Confirmed Labelling (CCL), which incorporates the collateral knowledge extracted from the collateral texts of the images with the state-of-the-art low-level image processing and visual feature extraction techniques for automatically assigning linguistic keywords to image regions. Two different high-level image feature vector models are developed based on the CCL labelling of results for the purposes of image data clustering and retrieval respectively. A subset of the Corel image collection has been used for evaluating our proposed method. The experimental results to-date already indicates that our proposed semantic-based visual content descriptors outperform both traditional visual and textual image feature models.

Indicators of nitrate in wetland surface and soil-waters: interactions of vegetation and environmental factors

This paper describes a new bio-indicator method for assessing wetland ecosystem health: as such, the study is particularly relevant to current legislation such as the EU Water Framework Directive, which provides a baseline of the current status Of Surface waters. Seven wetland sites were monitored across northern Britain, with model construction data for predicting, eco-hydroloplical relationships collected from five sites during 1999, Two new sites and one repeat site were monitored during 2000 to provide model test data. The main growing season for the vegetation, and hence the sampling period, was May-August during both years. Seasonal mean concentrations of nitrate (NO3-) in surface and soil water samples during 1999 ranged from 0.01 to 14.07 mg N 1(-1), with a mean value of 1.01 mg N 1(-1). During 2000, concentrations ranged from trace level (<0.01 m- N 1(-1)) to 9.43 mg N 1(-1), with a mean of 2.73 mg N 1(.)(-1) Surface and soil-water nitrate concentrations did not influence plant species composition significantly across representative tall herb fen and mire communities. Predictive relationships were found between nitrate concentrations and structural characteristics of the wetland vegetation, and a model was developed which predicted nitrate concentrations from measures of plant diversity, canopy structure and density of reproductive structures. Two further models, which predicted stem density and density of reproductive structures respectively, utilised nitrate concentration as one of the independent predictor variables. Where appropriate, the models were tested using data collected during 2000. This approach is complementary to species-based monitoring, representing a useful and simple too] to assess ecological status in target wetland systems and has potential for bio-indication purposes.

Mediterranean ecosystems: problems and tools for conservation

Mediterranean ecosystems rival tropical ecosystems in terms of plant biodiversity. The Mediterranean Basin (MB) itself hosts 25 000 plant species, half of which are endemic. This rich biodiversity and the complex biogeographical and political issues make conservation a difficult task in the region. Species, habitat, ecosystem and landscape approaches have been used to identify conservation targets at various scales: ie, European, national, regional and local. Conservation decisions require adequate information at the species, community and habitat level. Nevertheless and despite recent improvements/efforts, this information is still incomplete, fragmented and varies from one country to another. This paper reviews the biogeographic data, the problems arising from current conservation efforts and methods for the conservation assessment and prioritization using GIS. GIS has an important role to play for managing spatial and attribute information on the ecosystems of the MB and to facilitate interactions with existing databases. Where limited information is available it can be used for prediction when directly or indirectly linked to externally built models. As well as being a predictive tool today GIS incorporate spatial techniques which can improve the level of information such as fuzzy logic, geostatistics, or provide insight about landscape changes such as 3D visualization. Where there are limited resources it can assist with identifying sites of conservation priority or the resolution of environmental conflicts (scenario building). Although not a panacea, GIS is an invaluable tool for improving the understanding of Mediterranean ecosystems and their dynamics and for practical management in a region that is under increasing pressure from human impact.

Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters

Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical accounting and possible future climate feedbacks. Here, we combine an ensemble of IPCC-AR4 climate change projections for the Amazon Basin (eight general circulation models) with alternative ecosystem parameter sets for the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL. We evaluate LPJmL simulations of carbon stocks and fluxes against flux tower and aboveground biomass datasets for individual sites and the entire basin. Variability in LPJmL model sensitivity to future climate change is primarily related to light and water limitations through biochemical and water-balance-related parameters. Temperature-dependent parameters related to plant respiration and photosynthesis appear to be less important than vegetation dynamics (and their parameters) for determining the magnitude of ecosystem response to climate change. Variance partitioning approaches reveal that relationships between uncertainty from ecosystem dynamics and climate projections are dependent on geographic location and the targeted ecosystem process. Parameter uncertainty from the LPJmL model does not affect the trajectory of ecosystem response for a given climate change scenario and the primary source of uncertainty for Amazon 'dieback' results from the uncertainty among climate projections. Our approach for describing uncertainty is applicable for informing and prioritizing policy options related to mitigation and adaptation where long-term investments are required.

Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change

Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20 km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively because ablation increases more rapidly. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. Changes in ice-sheet topography and dynamics are not included, but we discuss their possible effects. For an annual- and area-average warming exceeding 4.5 +/- 0.9 K in Greenland and 3.1 +/- 0.8 K in the global average, the net surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising global-average sea level by 7 m.

Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones?

Composites of wind speeds, equivalent potential temperature, mean sea level pressure, vertical velocity, and relative humidity have been produced for the 100 most intense extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere winter for the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the high resolution global environment model (HiGEM). Features of conceptual models of cyclone structure—the warm conveyor belt, cold conveyor belt, and dry intrusion—have been identified in the composites from ERA-40 and compared to HiGEM. Such features can be identified in the composite fields despite the smoothing that occurs in the compositing process. The surface features and the three-dimensional structure of the cyclones in HiGEM compare very well with those from ERA-40. The warm conveyor belt is identified in the temperature and wind fields as a mass of warm air undergoing moist isentropic uplift and is very similar in ERA-40 and HiGEM. The rate of ascent is lower in HiGEM, associated with a shallower slope of the moist isentropes in the warm sector. There are also differences in the relative humidity fields in the warm conveyor belt. In ERA-40, the high values of relative humidity are strongly associated with the moist isentropic uplift, whereas in HiGEM these are not so strongly associated. The cold conveyor belt is identified as rearward flowing air that undercuts the warm conveyor belt and produces a low-level jet, and is very similar in HiGEM and ERA-40. The dry intrusion is identified in the 500-hPa vertical velocity and relative humidity. The structure of the dry intrusion compares well between HiGEM and ERA-40 but the descent is weaker in HiGEM because of weaker along-isentrope flow behind the composite cyclone. HiGEM’s ability to represent the key features of extratropical cyclone structure can give confidence in future predictions from this model.

Modelling convective processes during the suppressed phase of the a Madden-Julian Oscillation: Comparing single-column models with cloud resolving models

The role of convective processes in moistening the atmosphere during suppressed periods of the suppressed phase of a Madden-Julian oscillation is investigated in cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations, and the impact of moistening on the subsequent evolution of convection is assessed as part of a Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study (GCSS) intercomparison project. The ability of single-column model (SCM) versions of a number of state-of-the-art climate and numerical weather prediction models to capture these convective processes is also evaluated. During the suppressed periods, the CRMs are found to simulate a maximum moistening around 3 km, which is associated with a predominance of shallow convection. All SCMs produce adequate amounts of shallow convection during the suppressed periods, comparable to that seen in CRMs, but the relatively drier SCMs have higher precipitation rates than the relatively wetter SCMs and CRMs. The relatively drier SCMs dry, rather than moisten, the lower troposphere below the melting level. During the transition periods, convective processes act to moisten the atmosphere above the level at which mean advection changes from moistening to drying, despite an overall drying effect for the column. The SCMs capture some essence of this moistening at upper levels. A gradual transition from shallow to deep convection is simulated by the CRMs and the wetter SCMs during the transition periods, but the onset of deep convection is delayed in the drier SCMs. This results in lower precipitation rates for these SCMs during the active periods, although much better agreement exists between the models at this time.

Towards an assessment of multiple ecosystem processes and services via functional traits

Managing ecosystems to ensure the provision of multiple ecosystem services is a key challenge for applied ecology. Functional traits are receiving increasing attention as the main ecological attributes by which different organisms and biological communities influence ecosystem services through their effects on underlying ecosystem processes. Here we synthesize concepts and empirical evidence on linkages between functional traits and ecosystem services across different trophic levels. Most of the 247 studies reviewed considered plants and soil invertebrates, but quantitative trait–service associations have been documented for a range of organisms and ecosystems, illustrating the wide applicability of the trait approach. Within each trophic level, specific processes are affected by a combination of traits while particular key traits are simultaneously involved in the control of multiple processes. These multiple associations between traits and ecosystem processes can help to identify predictable trait–service clusters that depend on several trophic levels, such as clusters of traits of plants and soil organisms that underlie nutrient cycling, herbivory, and fodder and fibre production. We propose that the assessment of trait–service clusters will represent a crucial step in ecosystem service monitoring and in balancing the delivery of multiple, and sometimes conflicting, services in ecosystem management.

Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models

Projections of stratospheric ozone from a suite of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have been analyzed. In addition to a reference simulation where anthropogenic halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) vary with time, sensitivity simulations with either ODS or GHG concentrations fixed at 1960 levels were performed to disaggregate the drivers of projected ozone changes. These simulations were also used to assess the two distinct milestones of ozone returning to historical values (ozone return dates) and ozone no longer being influenced by ODSs (full ozone recovery). The date of ozone returning to historical values does not indicate complete recovery from ODSs in most cases, because GHG-induced changes accelerate or decelerate ozone changes in many regions. In the upper stratosphere where CO2-induced stratospheric cooling increases ozone, full ozone recovery is projected to not likely have occurred by 2100 even though ozone returns to its 1980 or even 1960 levels well before (~2025 and 2040, respectively). In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone decreases continuously from 1960 to 2100 due to projected increases in tropical upwelling, while by around 2040 it is already very likely that full recovery from the effects of ODSs has occurred, although ODS concentrations are still elevated by this date. In the midlatitude lower stratosphere the evolution differs from that in the tropics, and rather than a steady decrease in ozone, first a decrease in ozone is simulated from 1960 to 2000, which is then followed by a steady increase through the 21st century. Ozone in the midlatitude lower stratosphere returns to 1980 levels by ~2045 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and by ~2055 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and full ozone recovery is likely reached by 2100 in both hemispheres. Overall, in all regions except the tropical lower stratosphere, full ozone recovery from ODSs occurs significantly later than the return of total column ozone to its 1980 level. The latest return of total column ozone is projected to occur over Antarctica (~2045–2060) whereas it is not likely that full ozone recovery is reached by the end of the 21st century in this region. Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels well before polar stratospheric halogen loading does so (~2025–2030 for total column ozone, cf. 2050–2070 for Cly+60×Bry) and it is likely that full recovery of total column ozone from the effects of ODSs has occurred by ~2035. In contrast to the Antarctic, by 2100 Arctic total column ozone is projected to be above 1960 levels, but not in the fixed GHG simulation, indicating that climate change plays a significant role.