Policy Brief: an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean

Caribbean policymakers are faced with special challenges from climate change and these are related to the uncertainties inherent in future climate projections and the complex linkages among climate change, physical and biological systems and socioeconomic sectors. The impacts of climate change threaten development in the Caribbean and may well erode previous gains in development as evidenced by the increased incidence of climate migrants internationally. This brief which is based on a recent study conducted by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (LC/CAR/L.395)1 provides a synthesis of the assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean which were undertaken. It provides Caribbean policymakers with cutting-edge information on the region’s vulnerability and encourages the development of adaptation strategies informed by both local experience and expert knowledge. It proceeds from an acknowledgement that the unique combination of natural resources, ecosystems, economic activities, and human population settlements of the Caribbean will not be immune to the impacts of climate change, and local communities, countries and the subregion as a whole need to plan for, and adapt to, these effects. Climate and extreme weather hazards related to the coastal and marine sector encompass the distinct but related factors of sea level rise, increasing coastal water temperatures, tropical storms and hurricanes. Potential vulnerabilities for coastal zones include increased shoreline erosion leading to alteration of the coastline, loss of coastal wetlands, and changes in the abundance and diversity of fish and other marine populations. The study examines four key themes in the analysis: climate, vulnerability, economic and social costs associated with climate change impacts, and adaptive measures.

Economic and Social Upgrading: Definitions, connections and exploring means of measurement

This paper reviews and synthesizes the literature on social upgrading, while exploring its connections with economic upgrading. Using the parsimonious method proposed by Bernhardt and Milberg and an alternative method that takes into account increases in national productivity, this paper analyzes the case of Mexico. Though the proposed approach to social upgrading can be made more sophisticated through the inclusion of more variables, in order to facilitate the replication of the analysis in developing countries where data are scarce, labor productivity, wages and employment were considered sufficient information to analyze economic and social upgrading.

Production, characterization and structural analysis of proteins from Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis and snake venoms

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Oral health profile in patients infected with HTLV-1: Clinical findings, proviral load, and molecular analysis from HTLV-1 in saliva

Human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) is associated with adult T-cell leukemia (ATL) and HTLV-1 associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP) and has also been implicated in several disorders, including periodontal disease. The proviral load is an important biological marker for understanding HTLV-1 pathogenesis and elucidating whether or not the virus is related to the clinical manifestation of the disease. This study describes the oral health profile of HTLV-1 carriers and HAM/TSP patients in order to investigate the association between the proviral load in saliva and the severity of the periodontal disease and to examine virus intra-host variations from peripheral blood mononuclear cells and saliva cells. It is a cross-sectional analytical study of 90 individuals carried out from November 2006 to May 2008. Of the patients, 60 were HTLV-1 positive and 30 were negative. Individuals from the HTLV-1 positive and negative groups had similar mean age and social-economic status. Data were analyzed using two available statistical software packages, STATA 8.0 and SPSS 11.0 to conduct frequency analysis. Differences of P?<?0.05 were considered statistically significant. HTLV-1 patients had poorer oral health status when compared to seronegative individuals. A weak positive correlation between blood and saliva proviral loads was observed. The mean values of proviral load in blood and saliva in patients with HAM/TSP was greater than those in HTLV-1 carriers. The HTLV-1 molecular analysis from PBMC and saliva specimens suggests that HTLV-1 in saliva is due to lymphocyte infiltration from peripheral blood. A direct relationship between the proviral load in saliva and oral manifestations was observed. J. Med. Virol. 84:1428-1436, 2012. (c) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Expression, purification and molecular analysis of the human ZNF706 protein

Background: The ZNF706 gene encodes a protein that belongs to the zinc finger family of proteins and was found to be highly expressed in laryngeal cancer, making the structure and function of ZNF706 worthy of investigation. In this study, we expressed and purified recombinant human ZNF706 that was suitable for structural analysis in Escherichia coli BL21(DH3). Findings: ZNF706 mRNA was extracted from a larynx tissue sample, and cDNA was ligated into a cloning vector using the TOPO method. ZNF706 protein was expressed according to the E. coli expression system procedures and was purified using a nickel-affinity column. The structural qualities of recombinant ZNF706 and quantification alpha, beta sheet, and other structures were obtained by spectroscopy of circular dichroism. ZNF706's structural modeling showed that it is composed of α-helices (28.3%), β-strands (19.4%), and turns (20.9%), in agreement with the spectral data from the dichroism analysis. Conclusions: We used circular dichroism and molecular modeling to examine the structure of ZNF706. The results suggest that human recombinant ZNF706 keeps its secondary structures and is appropriate for functional and structural studies. The method of expressing ZNF706 protein used in this study can be used to direct various functional and structural studies that will contribute to the understanding of its function as well as its relationship with other biological molecules and its putative role in carcinogenesis.

Experimental and numerical analysis of dry contact in the pin on disc test

The reduction of friction and wear in systems presenting metal-to-metal contacts, as in several mechanical components, represents a traditional challenge in tribology. In this context, this work presents a computational study based on the linear Archard's wear law and finite element modeling (FEM), in order to analyze unlubricated sliding wear observed in typical pin on disc tests. Such modeling was developed using finite element software Abaqus® with 3-D deformable geometries and elastic–plastic material behavior for the contact surfaces. Archard's wear model was implemented into a FORTRAN user subroutine (UMESHMOTION) in order to describe sliding wear. Modeling of debris and oxide formation mechanisms was taken into account by the use of a global wear coefficient obtained from experimental measurements. Such implementation considers an incremental computation for surface wear based on the nodal displacements by means of adaptive mesh tools that rearrange local nodal positions. In this way, the worn track was obtained and new surface profile is integrated for mass loss assessments. This work also presents experimental pin on disc tests with AISI 4140 pins on rotating AISI H13 discs with normal loads of 10, 35, 70 and 140 N, which represent, respectively, mild, transition and severe wear regimes, at sliding speed of 0.1 m/s. Numerical and experimental results were compared in terms of wear rate and friction coefficient. Furthermore, in the numerical simulation the stress field distribution and changes in the surface profile across the worn track of the disc were analyzed. The applied numerical formulation has shown to be more appropriate to predict mild wear regime than severe regime, especially due to the shorter running-in period observed in lower loads that characterizes this kind of regime.

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

Study of Candidate Genes for production and carcass traits in Italian Heavy Pigs: identification of a new DNA Markers, Expression Studies and Association Analysis using Different Experimental Design

Heavy pig breeding in Italy is mainly oriented for the production of high quality processed products. Of particular importance is the dry cured ham production, which is strictly regulated and requires specific carcass characteristics correlated with green leg characteristics. Furthermore, as pigs are slaughtered at about 160 kg live weight, the Italian pig breeding sector faces severe problems of production efficiency that are related to all biological aspects linked to growth, feed conversion, fat deposition and so on. It is well known that production and carcass traits are in part genetically determined. Therefore, as a first step to understand genetic basis of traits that could have a direct or indirect impact on dry cured ham production, a candidate gene approach can be used to identify DNA markers associated with parameters of economic importance. In this thesis, we investigated three candidate genes for carcass and production traits (TRIB3, PCSK1, MUC4) in pig breeds used for dry cured ham production, using different experimental approaches in order to find molecular markers associated with these parameters.

The Effectiveness of the Clean Development Mechanism – A law and economics analysis

Climate change has been acknowledged as a threat to humanity. Most scholars agree that to avert dangerous climate change and to transform economies into low-carbon societies, deep global emission reductions are required by the year 2050. Under the framework of the Kyoto Protocol, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is the only market-based instrument that encourages industrialised countries to pursue emission reductions in developing countries. The CDM aims to pay the incremental finance necessary to operationalize emission reduction projects which are otherwise not financially viable. According to the objectives of the Kyoto Protocol, the CDM should finance projects that are additional to those which would have happened anyway, contribute to sustainable development in the countries hosting the projects, and be cost-effective. To enable the identification of such projects, an institutional framework has been established by the Kyoto Protocol which lays out responsibilities for public and private actors. This thesis examines whether the CDM has achieved these objectives in practice and can thus be considered an effective tool to reduce emissions. To complete this investigation, the book applies economic theory and analyses the CDM from two perspectives. The first perspective is the supply-dimension which answers the question of how, in practice, the CDM system identified additional, cost-effective, sustainable projects and, generated emission reductions. The main contribution of this book is the second perspective, the compliance-dimension, which answers the question of whether industrialised countries effectively used the CDM for compliance with their Kyoto targets. The application of the CDM in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is used as a case-study. Where the analysis identifies inefficiencies within the supply or the compliance dimension, potential improvements of the legal framework are proposed and discussed.

A Law and Economics Analysis of Lobbying Regulation Towards an optimal structure through the Cost Indicator Index

This research primarily represents a contribution to the lobbying regulation research arena. It introduces an index which for the first time attempts to measure the direct compliance costs of lobbying regulation. The Cost Indicator Index (CII) offers a brand new platform for qualitative and quantitative assessment of adopted lobbying laws and proposals of those laws, both in the comparative and the sui generis dimension. The CII is not just the only new tool introduced in the last decade, but it is the only tool available for comparative assessments of the costs of lobbying regulations. Beside the qualitative contribution, the research introduces an additional theoretical framework for complementary qualitative analysis of the lobbying laws. The Ninefold theory allows a more structured assessment and classification of lobbying regulations, both by indication of benefits and costs. Lastly, this research introduces the Cost-Benefit Labels (CBL). These labels might improve an ex-ante lobbying regulation impact assessment procedure, primarily in the sui generis perspective. In its final part, the research focuses on four South East European countries (Slovenia, Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia), and for the first time brings them into the discussion and calculates their CPI and CII scores. The special focus of the application was on Serbia, whose proposal on the Law on Lobbying has been extensively analysed in qualitative and quantitative terms, taking into consideration specific political and economic circumstances of the country. Although the obtained results are of an indicative nature, the CII will probably find its place within the academic and policymaking arena, and will hopefully contribute to a better understanding of lobbying regulations worldwide.

Treatment failure in pneumonia: Impact of antibiotic treatment and cost analysis

The aim of this study was to investigate treatment failure (TF) in hospitalised community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) patients with regard to initial antibiotic treatment and economic impact. CAP patients were included in two open, prospective multicentre studies assessing the direct costs for in-patient treatment. Patients received treatment either with moxifloxacin (MFX) or a nonstandardised antibiotic therapy. Any change in antibiotic therapy after >72 h of treatment to a broadened antibiotic spectrum was considered as TF. Overall, 1,236 patients (mean ± SD age 69.6 ± 16.8 yrs, 691 (55.9%) male) were included. TF occurred in 197 (15.9%) subjects and led to longer hospital stay (15.4 ± 7.3 days versus 9.8 ± 4.2 days; p < 0.001) and increased median treatment costs (€2,206 versus €1,284; p<0.001). 596 (48.2%) patients received MFX and witnessed less TF (10.9% versus 20.6%; p < 0.001). After controlling for confounders in multivariate analysis, adjusted risk of TF was clearly reduced in MFX as compared with β-lactam monotherapy (adjusted OR for MFX 0.43, 95% CI 0.27-0.68) and was more comparable with a β-lactam plus macrolide combination (BLM) (OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.38-1.21). In hospitalised CAP, TF is frequent and leads to prolonged hospital stay and increased treatment costs. Initial treatment with MFX or BLM is a possible strategy to prevent TF, and may thus reduce treatment costs.

Efficacy of communication skills training courses in oncology: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective: Group training in communication skills [communication skills training (CST)] has become partly mandatory for oncology staff. However, so far, a comprehensive meta-analysis on the efficacy is lacking. Design: Included studies either compare the efficacy of a specific training with a control group or look at the additional effect of booster sessions on communication behaviour, attitudes or patient outcomes. Methods: Four electronic databases were searched up to July 2008 without language restriction, and reference lists of earlier reviews were screened. Effect sizes (ESs) were extracted and pooled in random effects meta-analyses. Results: We included 13 trials (three non-randomised), 10 with no specific intervention in the control group. Meta-analysis showed a moderate effect of CST on communication behaviour ES = 0.54. Three trials compared basic training courses with more extensive training courses and showed a small additional effect on communication skills ES = 0.37. Trials investigating participants' attitudes ES = 0.35 and patient outcomes ES = 0.13 (trend) confirmed this effect. Conclusions: Training health professionals by CST is a promising approach to change communication behaviour and attitudes. Patients might also benefit from specifically trained health professionals but strong studies are lacking. However, feasibility and economic aspects have to be kept in mind when considering providing a training of optimal length.

Loss to programme between HIV diagnosis and initiation of antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives  To assess the proportion of patients lost to programme (died, lost to follow-up, transferred out) between HIV diagnosis and start of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, and determine factors associated with loss to programme. Methods  Systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched PubMed and EMBASE databases for studies in adults. Outcomes were the percentage of patients dying before starting ART, the percentage lost to follow-up, the percentage with a CD4 cell count, the distribution of first CD4 counts and the percentage of eligible patients starting ART. Data were combined using random-effects meta-analysis. Results  Twenty-nine studies from sub-Saharan Africa including 148 912 patients were analysed. Six studies covered the whole period from HIV diagnosis to ART start. Meta-analysis of these studies showed that of the 100 patients with a positive HIV test, 72 (95% CI 60-84) had a CD4 cell count measured, 40 (95% CI 26-55) were eligible for ART and 25 (95% CI 13-37) started ART. There was substantial heterogeneity between studies (P < 0.0001). Median CD4 cell count at presentation ranged from 154 to 274 cells/μl. Patients eligible for ART were less likely to become lost to programme (25%vs. 54%, P < 0.0001), but eligible patients were more likely to die (11%vs. 5%, P < 0.0001) than ineligible patients. Loss to programme was higher in men, in patients with low CD4 cell counts and low socio-economic status and in recent time periods. Conclusions  Monitoring and care in the pre-ART time period need improvement, with greater emphasis on patients not yet eligible for ART.

The Effects of Privatization of State-Owned Enterprises in Poland and East Germany

The main goal of this project was to propose appropriate methods of analysing the effects of the privatisation of state-owned enterprises, methods which were then tested on a limited sample of 16 Polish and 8 German enterprises privatised in 1992. A considerable amount of information was collected relating to the six-year period 1989-1994 relating to most aspects of the companies' activities. The effects of privatisation were taken to be those changes within the enterprises which were the result of privatisation, in such areas as production, the productivity of labour and fixed assets, investments and innovations, employment and wages, economic incentives (especially for top managers), financing (internal and external sources), bad debts and economic effects (financial analysis). A second important goal was to identify the main factors which represent methodological obstacles in surveys of the effects of privatisation during a period of fundamental transformation of the entire economic system. The list of enterprises for the research was compiled in such a way as to allow for the differentiation of ownership structures of privatised firms and to permit (at least to a certain extent) the empirical verification of some hypotheses regarding the privatisation process. The enterprises selected were divided into the following three groups representing (as far as possible) various types of ownership structures or types of control: (1) enterprises control by strategic investors (domestic or foreign), (2) enterprises controlled by employees (employee-owned companies), (3) enterprises controlled by managers. Formal methods such as econometric models with varying parameters were used to separate pure privatisation effects from other factors which influence various aspects of an enterprise's working, including policies on the productivity of labour and capital, average wages, the remuneration of top managers, etc. While the group admits that their findings and conclusions cannot be treated as representative of all privatised enterprises in Poland and Germany, they found considerable convergence with their findings and those of other surveys conducted on a wider scale. The main hypotheses that were confirmed included that privatisation (especially in companies controlled by large investors and managers) leads to a significant increase in the effectiveness of these production process, growing pay differentials between different employee groups (e.g. between executives and rank-and-file employees) and between different jobs and positions within particular professional groups. They also confirmed the growing importance in incentives to top executives of incentives linked with the company's economic effects (particularly profit-related incentives), long-term incentives and the capital market.