Spatial clusters of suicide in the municipality of Sao Paulo 1996-2005: an ecological study

Background: In a classical study, Durkheim mapped suicide rates, wealth, and low family density and realized that they clustered in northern France. Assessing others variables, such as religious society, he constructed a framework for the analysis of the suicide, which still allows international comparisons using the same basic methodology. The present study aims to identify possible significantly clusters of suicide in the city of Sao Paulo, and then, verify their statistical associations with socio-economic and cultural characteristics. Methods: A spatial scan statistical test was performed to analyze the geographical pattern of suicide deaths of residents in the city of Sao Paulo by Administrative District, from 1996 to 2005. Relative risks and high and/or low clusters were calculated accounting for gender and age as co-variates, were analyzed using spatial scan statistics to identify geographical patterns. Logistic regression was used to estimate associations with socioeconomic variables, considering, the spatial cluster of high suicide rates as the response variable. Drawing from Durkheim's original work, current World Health Organization (WHO) reports and recent reviews, the following independent variables were considered: marital status, income, education, religion, and migration. Results: The mean suicide rate was 4.1/100,000 inhabitant-years. Against this baseline, two clusters were identified: the first, of increased risk (RR = 1.66), comprising 18 districts in the central region; the second, of decreased risk (RR = 0.78), including 14 districts in the southern region. The downtown area toward the southwestern region of the city displayed the highest risk for suicide, and though the overall risk may be considered low, the rate climbs up to an intermediate level in this region. One logistic regression analysis contrasted the risk cluster (18 districts) against the other remaining 78 districts, testing the effects of socioeconomic-cultural variables. The following categories of proportion of persons within the clusters were identified as risk factors: singles (OR = 2.36), migrants (OR = 1.50), Catholics (OR = 1.37) and higher income (OR = 1.06). In a second logistic model, likewise conceived, the following categories of proportion of persons were identified as protective factors: married (OR = 0.49) and Evangelical (OR = 0.60). Conclusions: This risk/ protection profile is in accordance with the interpretation that, as a social phenomenon, suicide is related to social isolation. Thus, the classical framework put forward by Durkheim seems to still hold, even though its categorical expression requires re-interpretation.

How far can we go in simplifying biomonitoring assessments? An integrated analysis of taxonomic surrogacy, taxonomic sufficiency and numerical resolution in a megadiverse region

The need for biodiversity conservation is increasing at a rate much faster than the acquisition of knowledge of biodiversity, such as descriptions of new species and mapping species distributions. As global changes are winning the race against the acquisition of knowledge, many researchers resort to the use of surrogate groups to aid in conservation decisions. Reductions in taxonomic and numerical resolution are also desirable, because they could allow more rapid the acquisition of knowledge while requiring less effort, if little important information is lost. In this study, we evaluated the congruence among 22 taxonomic groups sampled in a tropical forest in the Amazon basin. Our aim was to evaluate if any of these groups could be used as surrogates for the others in monitoring programs. We also evaluated if the taxonomic or numerical resolution of possible surrogates could be reduced without greatly reducing the overall congruence. Congruence among plant groups was high, whereas the congruence among most animal groups was very low, except for anurans in which congruence values were only slightly lower than for plants. Liana (Bignoniaceae) was the group with highest congruence, even using genera presence-absence data. The congruence among groups was related to environmental factors, specifically the clay and phosphorous contents of soil. Several groups showed strong spatial clumping, but this was unrelated to the congruence among groups. The high degree of congruence of lianas with the other groups suggests that it may be a reasonable surrogate group, mainly for the other plant groups analyzed, if soil data are not available. Although lianas are difficult to count and identify, the number of studies on the ecology of lianas is increasing. Most of these studies have concluded that lianas are increasing in abundance in tropical forests. In addition to the high congruence, lianas are worth monitoring in their own right because they are sensitive to global warming and the increasing frequency and severity of droughts in tropical regions. Our findings suggest that the use of data on surrogate groups with relatively low taxonomic and numerical resolutions can be a reliable shortcut for biodiversity assessments, especially in megadiverse areas with high rates of habitat conversion, where the lack of biodiversity knowledge is pervasive. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Mediterranean brachiopods: morphological, ecological and phylogenetic aspects

The Brachiopoda of the Marine Protected Area “Secche di Tor Paterno”, Central Tyrrhenian Sea, have been investigated in order to give a first glance of the diversity of the brachiopods of this area and provide a new report on the Mediterranean Brachiopod fauna. Four species were reported: Novocrania anomala (Müller, 1776), Megathiris detruncata (Gmelin, 1790), Joania cordata (Risso,1826) and Argyrotheca cuneata (Risso,1826). For all the four species a morphological analysis was carried out. For the two most abundant species, J.cordata and A. cuneata, a morphometric study, based on thickness/width and length/width scattergrams, was carried out, in order to investigate their variability. Size-frequency distributions relative to the three dimensions of the shell were also computed, aimed at a evaluation of population dynamics of these two species. The results showed that, for both species, the parameters which most determine the rise of the shell during the growth of animal are width and length and that frequency distributions are mainly bi- or plurymodal and that they are difficult to interpret, as reported by other studies. Analysis of drill holes found on the shell of some specimens of the two same species revealed a predatory origin and that three different predators are responsible for them. Partial sequences of two different genetic markers, the Internal Transcribed Spacer 1 (ITS1) and the cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (COI), were used to investigate the phylogenetic relationship between two populations of the eurybathic brachiopod species Gryphus vitreus (Born,1778) across the strait of Gibraltar. This represents the first genetic population study on brachiopods. Results from AMOVA and Bayesian analysis performed on 31 specimens highlighted no genetic differentiation indicating a likely panmixia, dispite the lecitotrophic development of the species.

An interdisciplinary analysis of obesity: theory and empirical evidence

The dissertation is structured in three parts. The first part compares US and EU agricultural policies since the end of WWII. There is not enough evidence for claiming that agricultural support has a negative impact on obesity trends. I discuss the possibility of an exchange in best practices to fight obesity. There are relevant economic, societal and legal differences between the US and the EU. However, partnerships against obesity are welcomed. The second part presents a socio-ecological model of the determinants of obesity. I employ an interdisciplinary model because it captures the simultaneous influence of several variables. Obesity is an interaction of pre-birth, primary and secondary socialization factors. To test the significance of each factor, I use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health. I compare the average body mass index across different populations. Differences in means are statistically significant. In the last part I use the National Survey of Children Health. I analyze the effect that family characteristics, built environment, cultural norms and individual factors have on the body mass index (BMI). I use Ordered Probit models and I calculate the marginal effects. I use State and ethnicity fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity. I find that southern US States tend have on average a higher probability of being obese. On the ethnicity side, White Americans have a lower BMI respect to Black Americans, Hispanics and American Indians Native Islanders; being Asian is associated with a lower probability of being obese. In neighborhoods where trust level and safety perception are higher, children are less overweight and obese. Similar results are shown for higher level of parental income and education. Breastfeeding has a negative impact. Higher values of measures of behavioral disorders have a positive and significant impact on obesity, as predicted by the theory.

Analysis and development of ecologically based approaches to coastal defense

Climate-change related impacts, notably coastal erosion, inundation and flooding from sea level rise and storms, will increase in the coming decades enhancing the risks for coastal populations. Further recourse to coastal armoring and other engineered defenses to address risk reduction will exacerbate threats to coastal ecosystems. Alternatively, protection services provided by healthy ecosystems is emerging as a key element in climate adaptation and disaster risk management. I examined two distinct approaches to coastal defense on the base of their ecological and ecosystem conservation values. First, I analyzed the role of coastal ecosystems in providing services for hazard risk reduction. The value in wave attenuation of coral reefs was quantitatively demonstrated using a meta-analysis approach. Results indicate that coral reefs can provide wave attenuation comparable to hard engineering artificial defenses and at lower costs. Conservation and restoration of existing coral reefs are cost-effective management options for disaster risk reduction. Second, I evaluated the possibility to enhance the ecological value of artificial coastal defense structures (CDS) as habitats for marine communities. I documented the suitability of CDS to support native, ecologically relevant, habitat-forming canopy algae exploring the feasibility of enhancing CDS ecological value by promoting the growth of desired species. Juveniles of Cystoseira barbata can be successfully transplanted at both natural and artificial habitats and not affected by lack of surrounding adult algal individuals nor by substratum orientation. Transplantation success was limited by biotic disturbance from macrograzers on CDS compared to natural habitats. Future work should explore the reasons behind the different ecological functioning of artificial and natural habitats unraveling the factors and mechanisms that cause it. The comprehension of the functioning of systems associated with artificial habitats is the key to allow environmental managers to identify proper mitigation options and to forecast the impact of alternative coastal development plans.

Evolution of South African Bruniaceae: evidence from ecological and geographical investigations

The central aim of the present study was to analyse ecological and geographical mechanisms that led to the species diversity and distribution pattern of the South African (sub-) endemic Bruniaceae shown today. To answer the question if the endangerment of some species and the sometimes restricted distribution area is due to an incongruence of pollination and breeding system, pollinator observations and the breeding system were analysed. rnThe effectiveness of the plant-pollinator interactions should be reflected in the reproductive success wherefore fruit set analyses were carried out. The genetic constitution of distant and close-by populations along a spatial gradient should illuminate gene-flow or habitat isolation that could have led to the species diversity. Since niche-inhabitation could be shown in the present study, an overall biogeographical analysis illuminated the distribution pattern on family level and the geographical as well as ecological factors that led to species persistence. rnThe study illuminated that the plant-pollinator interactions and the breeding system are adaptations to the fynbos biome but can not be defined as factors that drove speciation or have tremendous influence on distribution of Bruniaceae. In fact the geography of South Africa with its fragmented landscape as well as close niche-inhabitation of co-occuring species is the reason for species diversity and the recent distribution.rn

Conservation genetics of European wildcat (Felis silvestris silvestris): a wide and integrating analysis protocol for admixture inferences and population structure

Introgression of domestic cat genes into European wildcat (Felis silvestris silvestris) populations and reduction of wildcats’ range in Europe, leaded by habitat loss and fragmentation, are considered two of the main conservation problems for this endangered feline. This thesis addressed the questions related with the artificial hybridization and populations’ fragmentation, using a conservation genetics perspective. We combined the use of highly polymorphic loci, Bayesian statistical inferences and landscape analyses tools to investigate the origin of the geographic-genetic substructure of European wildcats (Felis silvestris silvestris) in Italy and Europe. The genetic variability of microsatellites evidenced that European wildcat populations currently distributed in Italy differentiated in, and expanded from two distinct glacial refuges during the Last Glacial Maximum. The genetic and geographic substructure detected between the eastern and western sides of the Apennine ridge, resulted by adaptation to specific ecological conditions of the Mediterranean habitats. European wildcat populations in Europe are strongly structured into 5 geographic-genetic macro clusters corresponding to: the Italian peninsular & Sicily; Balkans & north-eastern Italy; Germany eastern; central Europe; and Iberian Peninsula. Central European population might have differentiated in the extra-Mediterranean Würm ice age refuge areas (Northern Alps, Carpathians, and the Bulgarian mountain systems), while the divergence among and within the southern European populations might have resulted by the Pleistocene bio geographical framework of Europe, with three southern refugia localized in the Balkans, Italian Peninsula and Iberia Peninsula. We further combined the use of most informative autosomal SNPs with uniparental markers (mtDNA and Y-linked) for accurately detecting parental genotypes and levels of introgressive hybridization between European wild and domestic cats. A total of 11 hybrids were identified. The presence of domestic mitochondrial haplotypes shared with some wild individuals led us to hypnotize the possibility that ancient introgressive events might have occurred and that further investigation should be recommended.

Ecological distribution of semi-demersal fishes in space and time on the shelf of Antalya Gulf

In this study we provide a baseline data on semidemersal fish assemblages and biology in a heterogeneous and yet less studied portion of the shelf of Antalya Gulf. The distribution of fish abundance in three transects subjected to different fisheries regulations (fishery vs non fishery areas), and including depths of 10, 25, 75, 125, 200 m, was studied between May 2014 and February 2015 in representative months of winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons. A total of 76 fish species belonging to 40 families was collected and semidemersal species distribution was analyzed in comparison with the whole community. Spatial distribution of fish was driven mainly by depth and two main assemblages were observed: shallow waters (10-25; 75 m) and deep waters (125-200 m). Significant differences among transects were found for the whole community but not for the semidemersal species. Analysis showed that this was due to a strong relation of these species with local environmental characteristics rather than to a different fishing pressure over transects. Firstly all species distribute according to the bathymetrical gradient and secondly to the bottom type structure. Semidemersal species were then found more related to zooplankton and suspended matter availability. The main morphological characteristics, sex and size distribution of the target semidemersal species Spicara smaris (Linnaeus, 1758), Saurida undosquamis (Richardson, 1848), Pagellus acarne (Risso, 1827) were also investigated.

Occurrence, finger printing and ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Chenab River, Pakistan

Seventeen polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were studied in surface waters (including particulate phase) from the Chenab River, Pakistan and ranged from 289-994 and 437-1290 ng l-1 in summer and winter (2007-09), respectively. Concentrations for different ring-number PAHs followed the trend: 3-rings > 2-rings > 4-rings > 5-rings > 6-rings. The possible sources of PAHs are identified by calculating the indicative ratios; appropriating petrogenic sources of PAHs in urban and sub-urban regions with pyrogenic sources in agricultural region. Factor analysis based on principal component analysis identified the origins of PAHs from industrial activities, coal and trash burning in agricultural areas and municipal waste disposal from surrounding urban and sub-urban areas via open drains into the riverine ecosystem. Water quality guidelines and toxic equivalent factors highlighted the potential risk of low molecular weight PAHs to the aquatic life of the Chenab River. The flux estimated for PAHs contaminants from the Chenab River to the Indus River was >50 tons/year.

Effect of Methodological and Ecological Approaches on Heterogeneity of Nest-Site Selection of a Long-Lived Vulture

The application of scientific-based conservation measures requires that sampling methodologies in studies modelling similar ecological aspects produce comparable results making easier their interpretation. We aimed to show how the choice of different methodological and ecological approaches can affect conclusions in nest-site selection studies along different Palearctic meta-populations of an indicator species. First, a multivariate analysis of the variables affecting nest-site selection in a breeding colony of cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) in central Spain was performed. Then, a meta-analysis was applied to establish how methodological and habitat-type factors determine differences and similarities in the results obtained by previous studies that have modelled the forest breeding habitat of the species. Our results revealed patterns in nesting-habitat modelling by the cinereous vulture throughout its whole range: steep and south-facing slopes, great cover of large trees and distance to human activities were generally selected. The ratio and situation of the studied plots (nests/random), the use of plots vs. polygons as sampling units and the number of years of data set determined the variability explained by the model. Moreover, a greater size of the breeding colony implied that ecological and geomorphological variables at landscape level were more influential. Additionally, human activities affected in greater proportion to colonies situated in Mediterranean forests. For the first time, a meta-analysis regarding the factors determining nest-site selection heterogeneity for a single species at broad scale was achieved. It is essential to homogenize and coordinate experimental design in modelling the selection of species' ecological requirements in order to avoid that differences in results among studies would be due to methodological heterogeneity. This would optimize best conservation and management practices for habitats and species in a global context.

The Estimation of the Ecological Condition of the City Environment by Methods of Phytoindication (as Applied to the Vasileostrovsky District of St. Petersburg)

The project aimed to use results of contamination of city vegetation with heavy metals and sulphur compounds as the basis for analysing the integral response of trees and shrubs to contamination, through a complex method of phytoindication. The results were used to draw up recommendations on pollution reduction in the city and to develop the method of phytoindication as a means of monitoring environmental pollution in St. Petersburg and other large cities. Field investigations were carried out in August 1996, and 66 descriptions of green areas were made in order to estimate the functional state of plants in the Vasileostrovsky district. Investigations of the spectrum reflecting properties of plants showed considerable variation of albedo meanings of leaves under the influence of various internal and external factors. The results indicated that lime trees most closely reflect the condition of the environment. Practically all the green areas studied were in poor condition, the only exceptions being areas of ash trees, which are more resistant to environmental pollution, and one lime-tree alley in a comparatively unpolluted street. The study identified those types of trees which are more or less resistant to complex environmental pollution and Ms. Terekhina recommends that the species in the present green areas be changed to include a higher number of the more resistant species. The turbidimetric analysis of tree barks for sulphates gave an indication of the level and spatial distribution of each pollutant, and the results also confirmed other findings that electric conductivity is a significant feature in determining the extent of sulphate pollution. In testing for various metals, the lime tree showed the highest contents for all elements except magnesium, copper, zinc, cadmium and strontium, again confirming the species' vulnerability to pollution. Medium rates of concentration in the city and environs showed that city plants concentrate 3 times as many different elements and 10 times more chromium, copper and lead than do those in the suburbs. The second stage of the study was based on the concept of phytoindication, which presupposes that changes in the relation of chemical elements in regional biological circulation under the influence of technogenesis provide a criterion for predicting displacements in people's health. There are certain basic factors in this concept. The first is that all living beings are related ecologically as well as by their evolutionary origin, and that the lower an organism is on the evolutionary scale, the less adaptational reserve it has. The second is that smaller concentrations of chemical elements are needed for toxicological influence on plants than on people and so the former's reactions to geochemical factors are easier to characterise. Visual indicational features of urban plants are well defined and can form the basis of a complex "environment - public health" analysis. Specific plant reactions reflecting atmospheric pollution and other components of urbogeosystems make it possible to determine indication criteria for predicting possible disturbances in the general state of health of the population. Thirdly the results of phytoindication investigations must be taken together with information about public health in the area. It only proved possibly to analyse general indexes of public health based on statistical data from the late 1980s and early 1990s as the data of later years were greatly influenced by social factors. These data show that the rates of illness in St. Petersburg (especially for children) are higher than in Russia as a whole, for most classes of diseases, indicating that the population there is more sensitive to the ecological state of the urban environment. The Vasileostrovsky district had the second highest sick rate for adullts, while the rate of infant mortality in the first year of life was highest there. Ms. Terekhina recommends further studies to more precisely assess the effectiveness of the methods she tested, but has drawn up a proposed map of environmental hazard for the population, taking into account prevailing wind directions.

Cascading climate effects and related ecological consequences during past centuries

The interface between climate and ecosystem structure and function is incompletely understood, partly because few ecological records start before the recent warming phase. Here, we analyse an exceptional 100-yr long record of the great tit (Parus major) population in Switzerland in relation to climate and habitat phenology. Using structural equation analysis, we demonstrate an uninterrupted cascade of significant influences of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (North-Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and North-sea – Caspian Pattern, NCP) on habitat and breeding phenology, and further on fitness-relevant life history traits within great tit populations. We then apply the relationships of this analysis to reconstruct the circulation-driven component of fluctuations in great tit breeding phenology and productivity on the basis of new seasonal NAO and NCP indices back to 1500 AD. According to the structural equation model, the multi-decadal oscillation of the atmospheric circulation likely led to substantial variation in habitat phenology, productivity and consequently, tit population fluctuations with minima during the "Maunder Minimum" (∼ 1650–1720) and the Little Ice Age Type Event I (1810–1850). The warming since 1975 was not only related with a quick shift towards earlier breeding, but also with the highest productivity since 1500, and thus, the impact of the NAO and NCP has contributed to an unprecedented increase of the population. A verification of the structural equation model against two independent data series (1970–2000 and 1750–1900) corroborates that the retrospective model reliably depicts the major long-term NAO/NCP impact on ecosystem parameters. The results suggest a complex cascade of climate effects beginning at a global scale and ending at the level of individual life histories. This sheds light on how large-scale climate conditions substantially affect major life history parameters within a population, and thus influence key ecosystem parameters at the scale of centuries.

Ecological study of the predictors of successful management of dyslipidemia in HIV-infected patients on ART: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

PURPOSE: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) may induce metabolic changes and increase the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Based on a health care system approach, we investigated predictors for normalization of dyslipidemia in HIV-infected individuals receiving ART. METHOD: Individuals included in the study were registered in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS), had dyslipidemia but were not on lipid-lowering medication, were on potent ART for >or= 3 months, and had >or= 2 follow-up visits. Dyslipidemia was defined as two consecutive total cholesterol (TC) values above recommended levels. Predictors of achieving treatment goals for TC were assessed using Cox models. RESULTS: Analysis included 958 individuals with median followup of 2.3 years (IQR 1.2-4.0). 454 patients (47.4%) achieved TC treatment goals. In adjusted analyses, variables significantly associated with a lower hazard of reaching TC treatment goals were as follows: older age (compared to 18-37 year olds: hazard ratio [HR] 0.62 for 45-52 year olds, 95% CI 0.47-0.82; HR 0.40 for 53-85, 95% CI 0.29-0.54), diabetes (HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.26-0.59), history of coronary heart disease (HR 0.27, 95% CI 0.10-0.71), higher baseline TC (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.71-0.85), baseline triple nucleoside regimen (HR 0.12 compared to PI-only regimen, 95% CI 0.07-0.21), longer time on PI-only regimen (HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.33-0.46), longer time on NNRTI only regimen (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.29-0.43), and longer time on PI/NNRTI regimen (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.26-0.43). Switching ART regimen when viral load was undetectable was associated with a higher hazard of reaching TC treatment goals (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.14-1.91). CONCLUSION: In SHCS participants on ART, several ART-related and not ART-related epidemiological factors were associated with insufficient control of dyslipidemia. Control of dyslipidemia in ART recipients must be further improved.