Quantifying differences in land use emission estimates implied by definition discrepancies

The quantification of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land use and land use change (eLUC) is essential to understand the drivers of the atmospheric CO2 increase and to inform climate change mitigation policy. Reported values in synthesis reports are commonly derived from different approaches (observation-driven bookkeeping and process-modelling) but recent work has emphasized that inconsistencies between methods may imply substantial differences in eLUC estimates. However, a consistent quantification is lacking and no concise modelling protocol for the separation of primary and secondary components of eLUC has been established. Here, we review differences of eLUC quantification methods and apply an Earth System Model (ESM) of Intermediate Complexity to quantify them. We find that the magnitude of effects due to merely conceptual differences between ESM and offline vegetation model-based quantifications is ~ 20 % for today. Under a future business-as-usual scenario, differences tend to increase further due to slowing land conversion rates and an increasing impact of altered environmental conditions on land-atmosphere fluxes. We establish how coupled Earth System Models may be applied to separate secondary component fluxes of eLUC arising from the replacement of potential C sinks/sources and the land use feedback and show that secondary fluxes derived from offline vegetation models are conceptually and quantitatively not identical to either, nor their sum. Therefore, we argue that synthesis studies should resort to the "least common denominator" of different methods, following the bookkeeping approach where only primary land use emissions are quantified under the assumption of constant environmental boundary conditions.

Geochemical and palynological results of IODP Hole 302-M0004A from Lomonosov Ridge, Arctic Ocean

Several episodes of abrupt and transient warming, each lasting between 50,000 and 200,000 years, punctuated the long-term warming during the Late Palaeocene and Early Eocene (58 to 51 Myr ago) epochs**1,2. These hyperthermal events, such as the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2) that took place about 53.5 Myr ago**2, are associated with rapid increases in atmospheric CO2 content. However, the impacts of most events are documented only locally**3,4. Here we show, on the basis of estimates from the TEX86' proxy, that sea surface temperatures rose by 3-5 °C in the Arctic Ocean during the ETM2. Dinoflagellate fossils demonstrate a concomitant freshening and eutrophication of surface waters, which resulted in euxinia in the photic zone. The presence of palm pollen implies**5 that coldest month mean temperatures over the Arctic land masses were no less than 8 °C, in contradiction of model simulations that suggest hyperthermal winter temperatures were below freezing**6. In light of our reconstructed temperature and hydrologic trends, we conclude that the temperature and hydrographic responses to abruptly increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations were similar for the ETM2 and the better-described Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum**7,8, 55.5 Myr ago.

Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages, oxygen isotope records of foraminifera, and alkenone and Mg/Ca-based SST estimates for the time interval 3.40-3.18 Ma (Late Pliocene) from five North Atlantic and Caribbean sediment cores

The early Late Pliocene (3.6 to ~3.0 million years ago) is the last extended interval in Earth's history when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to today's and global climate was warmer. Yet a severe global glaciation during marine isotope stage (MIS) M2 interrupted this phase of global warmth ~3.30 million years ago, and is seen as a premature attempt of the climate system to establish an ice-age world. Our geochemical and palynological records from five marine sediment cores along a Caribbean to eastern North Atlantic transect show that increased Pacific-to-Atlantic flow via the Central American Seaway weakened the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and attendant northward heat transport prior to MIS M2. The consequent cooling of the northern high latitude oceans permitted expansion of the Greenland ice sheet during MIS M2, despite near-modern atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Before and after MIS M2, heat transport via the NAC was crucial in maintaining warm climates comparable to those predicted for the end of this century.

Chemical analysis with regard to global and local climatic forcing measured on sediment core GeoB3711-1, GeoB3711-3 and GeoB4917-8

Global and local climatic forcing, e.g. concentration of atmospheric CO2 or insolation, influence the distribution of C3 and C4 plants in southwest Africa. C4 plants dominate in more arid and warmer areas and are favoured by lower pCO2 levels. Several studies have assessed past and present continental vegetation by the analysis of terrestrial n-alkanes in near-coastal deep sea sediments using single samples or a small number of samples from a given climatic stage. The objectives of this study were to evaluate vegetation changes in southwest Africa with regard to climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene and to elucidate the potential of single sample simplifications. We analysed two sediment cores at high resolution, altogether ca. 240 samples, from the Southeast Atlantic Ocean (20°S and 12°S) covering the time spans of 18 to 1 ka and 56 to 2 ka, respectively. Our results for 20°S showed marginally decreasing C4 plant domination (of ca. 5%) during deglaciation based on average chain length (ACL27-33 values) and carbon isotopic composition of the C31 and C33 n-alkanes. Values for single samples from 18 ka and the Holocene overlap and, thus, are not significantly representative of the climatic stages they derive from. In contrast, at 12°S the n-alkane parameters show a clear difference of plant type for the Late Pleistocene (C4 plant domination, 66% C4 on average) and the Holocene (C3 plant domination, 40% C4 on average). During deglaciation vegetation change highly correlates with the increase in pCO2 (r² = 0.91). Short-term climatic events such as Heinrich Stadials or Antarctic warming periods are not reflected by vegetation changes in the catchment area. Instead, smaller vegetation fluctuations during the Late Pleistocene occur in accordance with local variations of insolation.

Miocene-Pliocene record of Pollen, charcoal and carbon isotopes of plant waxes of ODP Hole 175-1081A

Modern savannah grasslands were established during the late Miocene and Pliocene (8-3 million years ago). In the tropics, grasslands are dominated by grasses that use the C4 photosynthetic pathway, rather than the C3 pathway. The C4 pathway is better adapted to warm, dry and low-CO2 conditions, leading to suggestions that declining atmospheric CO2 levels, increasing aridity and enhanced rainfall seasonality allowed grasses using this pathway to expand during this interval. The role of fire in C4 expansion may have been underestimated. Here we use analyses of pollen, microscopic charcoal and the stable isotopic composition of plant waxes from a marine sediment core off the coast of Namibia to reconstruct the relative timing of changes in plant composition and fire activity for the late Miocene and Pliocene. We find that in southwestern Africa, the expansion of C4 grasses occurred alongside increasing aridity and enhanced fire activity. During further aridification in the Pliocene, the proportion of C4 grasses in the grasslands increased, while the grassland contracted and deserts and semi-deserts expanded. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that ecological disturbance by fire was an essential feedback mechanism leading to the establishment of C4 grasslands in the Miocene and Pliocene.

Eocene to Early Miocene palaeoclimate of Saxony, Germany (Table 4)

In the present study, proxy data concerning changes in atmospheric CO2 and climatic conditions from the Late Eocene to the Early Miocene were acquired by applying palaeobotanical methods. Fossil floras from 10 well-documented locations in Saxony, Germany, were investigated with respect to (1) stomatal density/index of fossil leaves from three different taxa (Eotrigonobalanus furcinervis, Laurophyllum pseudoprinceps and Laurophyllum acutimontanum), (2) the coexistence approach (CA) based on nearest living relatives (NLR) and (3) leaf margin analysis (LMA). Whereas the results of approach (1) indicate changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration, approaches (2) and (3) provide climate data. The results of the analysis of stomatal parameters indicate that the atmospheric CO2 concentration was higher during the Late Eocene than during the Early Oligocene and increased towards the Late Oligocene. A lower atmospheric pCO2 level after the Late Eocene is also suggested by an increase in marine palaeoproductivity at this time. From the Late Oligocene onwards, no changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration can be detected with the present data. For the considered sites, the results of the coexistence approach and of the leaf margin analysis document a significant cooling event from the Late Eocene to the Early Oligocene. The pCO2 decrease from the Late Eocene to the Early Oligocene indicated by the stomatal data raised in this study was thus coupled to a temperature decrease which is reflected by the present datasets. From the Early Oligocene onwards, however, no further fundamental climate change can be inferred for the considered locations. The pCO2 increase from the Early Oligocene to the Late Oligocene, which is indicated by the present data, is thus not accompanied by a climate change at the considered sites. A warming event during the Late Oligocene is, however, recorded by marine climate archives. According to the present data, no change in pCO2 occurred during the cooling event at the Oligocene/Miocene boundary, which is also indicated by marine data. The quality and validity of stomatal parameters as sensors for atmospheric CO2 concentration are discussed.

Holocene carbon cycle dynamics, links to model files

We are investigating the late Holocene rise in CO2 by performing four experiments with the climate-carbon-cycle model CLIMBER2-LPJ. Apart from the deep sea sediments, important carbon cycle processes considered are carbon uptake or release by the vegetation, carbon uptake by peatlands, and CO 2 release due to shallow water sedimentation of CaCO3. Ice core data of atmospheric CO2 between 8 ka BP and preindustrial climate can only be reproduced if CO2 outgassing due to shallow water sedimentation of CaCO3 is considered. In this case the model displays an increase of nearly 20 ppmv CO2 between 8 ka BP and present day. Model configurations that do not contain this forcing show a slight decrease in atmospheric CO2. We can therefore explain the late Holocene rise in CO2 by invoking natural forcing factors only, and anthropogenic forcing is not required to understand preindustrial CO2 dynamics.

Iron (Fe) concentrations and fluxes in TALDICE ice core 0.6 to 314 ky BP

Atmospheric fluxes of iron (Fe) over the past 200 kyr are reported for the coastal Antarctic Talos Dome ice core, based on acid leachable Fe concentrations. Fluxes of Fe to Talos Dome were consistently greater than those at Dome C, with the greatest difference observed during interglacial climates. We observe different Fe flux trends at Dome C and Talos Dome during the deglaciation and early Holocene, attributed to a combination of deglacial activation of dust sources local to Talos Dome and the reorganisation of atmospheric transport pathways with the retreat of the Ross Sea ice shelf. This supports similar findings based on dust particle sizes and fluxes and Rare Earth Element fluxes. We show that Ca and Fe should not be used as quantitative proxies for mineral dust, as they all demonstrate different deglacial trends at Talos Dome and Dome C. Considering that a 20 ppmv decrease in atmospheric CO2 at the coldest part of the last glacial maximum occurs contemporaneously with the period of greatest Fe and dust flux to Antarctica, we confirm that the maximum contribution of aeolian dust deposition to Southern Ocean sequestration of atmospheric CO2 is approximately 20 ppmv.

Glaciological characteristics and carbon dioxide record of ice cores from Antarctica

We report a decadally resolved record of atmospheric CO2 concentration for the last 1000 years, obtained from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide shallow ice core. The most prominent feature of the pre-industrial period is a rapid ~7 ppm decrease of CO2 in a span of ~20-50 years at ~1600 A.D. This observation confirms the timing of an abrupt atmospheric CO2 decrease of ~10 ppm observed for that time period in the Law Dome ice core CO2 records, but the true magnitude of the decrease remains unclear. Atmospheric CO2 variations over the time period 1000-1800 A.D. are statistically correlated with northern hemispheric climate and tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature. However, the exact relationship between CO2 and climate remains elusive due to regional climate variations and/or uneven geographical data density of paleoclimate records. We observe small differences of 0 ~2% (0 ~ 6 ppm) among the high-precision CO2 records from the Law Dome, EPICA Dronning Maud Land and WAIS Divide Antarctic ice cores. However, those records share common trends of CO2 change on centennial to multicentennial time scales, and clearly show that atmospheric CO2 has been increasing above preindustrial levels since ~1850 A.D.