Deficit, human capital and economic growth dynamics

Long-run economic growth arouses a great interest since it can shed light on the income-path of an economy and try to explain the large differences in income we observe across countries and over time. The neoclassical model has been followed by several endogenous growth models which, contrarily to the former, seem to predict that economies with similar preferences and technological level, do not necessarily tend to converge to similar per capita income levels. This paper attempts to show a possible mechanismthrough which macroeconomic disequilibria and inefficiencies, represented by budget deficits, may hinder human capital accumulation and therefore economic growth. Using a mixed education system, deficit is characterized as a bug agent which may end up sharply reducing the resources devoted to education and training. The paper goes a step further from the literature on deficit by introducing a rich dynamic analysis of the effects of a deficit reduction on different economic aspects.Following a simple growth model and allowing for slight changes in the law of human capital accumulation, we reach a point where deficit might sharply reduce human capital accumulation. On the other hand, a deficit reduction carried on for a long time, taking that reduction as a more efficient management of the economy, may prove useful in inducing endogenous growth. Empirical evidence for a sample of countries seems to support the theoretical assumptions in the model: (1) evidence on an inverse relationship betweendeficit and human capital accumulation, (2) presence of a strongly negative associationbetween the quantity of deficit in the economy and the rate of growth. They may prove a certain role for budget deficit in economic growth

Regional economic dynamics and convergence in the european union

Deepening in the European Union (EU) integration process has enhanced the question of economic disparities at a regional level. Theconvergence process observed until the late seventies was exhausted onwards incoincidence with important changes in the economic activity. The paper showshow these factors would have provoked a regional differenciated response that,despite being important, would have not strengthened the decrease in regionalinequalities. We use an alternative and (in our opinion) richer approach to thetraditional convergence analysis, where the evolution of the whole regionaldistribution is what matters and not that of a representative economy. Moreover,when analysing inequalities among regional economies, the geographical spaceacquire an outstanding role. Hence, we apply spatial association tests and relatethem to the convergence analysis

Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for CEECs : a univariate approach

In this paper we test for the hysteresis versus the natural rate hypothesis on the unemployment rates of the EU new members using unit root tests that account for the presence of level shifts. As a by product, the analysis proceeds to the estimation of a NAIRU measure from a univariate point of view. The paper also focuses on the precision of these NAIRU estimates studying the two sources of inaccuracy that derive from the break points estimation and the autoregressive parameters estimation. The results point to the existence of up to four structural breaks in the transition countries NAIRU that can be associated with institutional changes implementing market-oriented reforms. Moreover, the degree of persistence in unemployment varies dramatically among the individual countries depending on the stage reached in the transition process

Force volume and stiffness tomography investigation on the dynamics of stiff material under bacterial membranes.

The determination of the characteristics of micro-organisms in clinical specimens is essential for the rapid diagnosis and treatment of infections. A thorough investigation of the nanoscale properties of bacteria can prove to be a fundamental tool. Indeed, in the latest years, the importance of high resolution analysis of the properties of microbial cell surfaces has been increasingly recognized. Among the techniques available to observe at high resolution specific properties of microscopic samples, the Atomic Force Microscope (AFM) is the most widely used instrument capable to perform morphological and mechanical characterizations of living biological systems. Indeed, AFM can routinely study single cells in physiological conditions and can determine their mechanical properties with a nanometric resolution. Such analyses, coupled with high resolution investigation of their morphological properties, are increasingly used to characterize the state of single cells. In this work, we exploit the capabilities and peculiarities of AFM to analyze the mechanical properties of Escherichia coli in order to evidence with a high spatial resolution the mechanical properties of its structure. In particular, we will show that the bacterial membrane is not mechanically uniform, but contains stiffer areas. The force volume investigations presented in this work evidence for the first time the presence and dynamics of such structures. Such information is also coupled with a novel stiffness tomography technique, suggesting the presence of stiffer structures present underneath the membrane layer that could be associated with bacterial nucleoids.

Spanning avalanches in the three-dimensional Gaussian random-field Ising model with metastable dynamics: Field dependence and geometrical properties

Spanning avalanches in the 3D Gaussian Random Field Ising Model (3D-GRFIM) with metastable dynamics at T=0 have been studied. Statistical analysis of the field values for which avalanches occur has enabled a Finite-Size Scaling (FSS) study of the avalanche density to be performed. Furthermore, a direct measurement of the geometrical properties of the avalanches has confirmed an earlier hypothesis that several types of spanning avalanches with two different fractal dimensions coexist at the critical point. We finally compare the phase diagram of the 3D-GRFIM with metastable dynamics with the same model in equilibrium at T=0.

Diluted three-dimensional random field Ising model at zero temperature with metastable dynamics.

The influence of vacancy concentration on the behavior of the three-dimensional random field Ising model with metastable dynamics is studied. We have focused our analysis on the number of spanning avalanches which allows us a clear determination of the critical line where the hysteresis loops change from continuous to discontinuous. By a detailed finite-size scaling analysis we determine the phase diagram and numerically estimate the critical exponents along the whole critical line. Finally, we discuss the origin of the curvature of the critical line at high vacancy concentration.

Analysis, modelling and visualisation of spatiotemporal data for urban studies

The proportion of population living in or around cites is more important than ever. Urban sprawl and car dependence have taken over the pedestrian-friendly compact city. Environmental problems like air pollution, land waste or noise, and health problems are the result of this still continuing process. The urban planners have to find solutions to these complex problems, and at the same time insure the economic performance of the city and its surroundings. At the same time, an increasing quantity of socio-economic and environmental data is acquired. In order to get a better understanding of the processes and phenomena taking place in the complex urban environment, these data should be analysed. Numerous methods for modelling and simulating such a system exist and are still under development and can be exploited by the urban geographers for improving our understanding of the urban metabolism. Modern and innovative visualisation techniques help in communicating the results of such models and simulations. This thesis covers several methods for analysis, modelling, simulation and visualisation of problems related to urban geography. The analysis of high dimensional socio-economic data using artificial neural network techniques, especially self-organising maps, is showed using two examples at different scales. The problem of spatiotemporal modelling and data representation is treated and some possible solutions are shown. The simulation of urban dynamics and more specifically the traffic due to commuting to work is illustrated using multi-agent micro-simulation techniques. A section on visualisation methods presents cartograms for transforming the geographic space into a feature space, and the distance circle map, a centre-based map representation particularly useful for urban agglomerations. Some issues on the importance of scale in urban analysis and clustering of urban phenomena are exposed. A new approach on how to define urban areas at different scales is developed, and the link with percolation theory established. Fractal statistics, especially the lacunarity measure, and scale laws are used for characterising urban clusters. In a last section, the population evolution is modelled using a model close to the well-established gravity model. The work covers quite a wide range of methods useful in urban geography. Methods should still be developed further and at the same time find their way into the daily work and decision process of urban planners. La part de personnes vivant dans une région urbaine est plus élevé que jamais et continue à croître. L'étalement urbain et la dépendance automobile ont supplanté la ville compacte adaptée aux piétons. La pollution de l'air, le gaspillage du sol, le bruit, et des problèmes de santé pour les habitants en sont la conséquence. Les urbanistes doivent trouver, ensemble avec toute la société, des solutions à ces problèmes complexes. En même temps, il faut assurer la performance économique de la ville et de sa région. Actuellement, une quantité grandissante de données socio-économiques et environnementales est récoltée. Pour mieux comprendre les processus et phénomènes du système complexe "ville", ces données doivent être traitées et analysées. Des nombreuses méthodes pour modéliser et simuler un tel système existent et sont continuellement en développement. Elles peuvent être exploitées par le géographe urbain pour améliorer sa connaissance du métabolisme urbain. Des techniques modernes et innovatrices de visualisation aident dans la communication des résultats de tels modèles et simulations. Cette thèse décrit plusieurs méthodes permettant d'analyser, de modéliser, de simuler et de visualiser des phénomènes urbains. L'analyse de données socio-économiques à très haute dimension à l'aide de réseaux de neurones artificiels, notamment des cartes auto-organisatrices, est montré à travers deux exemples aux échelles différentes. Le problème de modélisation spatio-temporelle et de représentation des données est discuté et quelques ébauches de solutions esquissées. La simulation de la dynamique urbaine, et plus spécifiquement du trafic automobile engendré par les pendulaires est illustrée à l'aide d'une simulation multi-agents. Une section sur les méthodes de visualisation montre des cartes en anamorphoses permettant de transformer l'espace géographique en espace fonctionnel. Un autre type de carte, les cartes circulaires, est présenté. Ce type de carte est particulièrement utile pour les agglomérations urbaines. Quelques questions liées à l'importance de l'échelle dans l'analyse urbaine sont également discutées. Une nouvelle approche pour définir des clusters urbains à des échelles différentes est développée, et le lien avec la théorie de la percolation est établi. Des statistiques fractales, notamment la lacunarité, sont utilisées pour caractériser ces clusters urbains. L'évolution de la population est modélisée à l'aide d'un modèle proche du modèle gravitaire bien connu. Le travail couvre une large panoplie de méthodes utiles en géographie urbaine. Toutefois, il est toujours nécessaire de développer plus loin ces méthodes et en même temps, elles doivent trouver leur chemin dans la vie quotidienne des urbanistes et planificateurs.

Dynamics of turing patterns under spatiotemporal forcing

We study, both theoretically and experimentally, the dynamical response of Turing patterns to a spatiotemporal forcing in the form of a traveling-wave modulation of a control parameter. We show that from strictly spatial resonance, it is possible to induce new, generic dynamical behaviors, including temporally modulated traveling waves and localized traveling solitonlike solutions. The latter make contact with the soliton solutions of Coullet [Phys. Rev. Lett. 56, 724 (1986)] and generalize them. The stability diagram for the different propagating modes in the Lengyel-Epstein model is determined numerically. Direct observations of the predicted solutions in experiments carried out with light modulations in the photosensitive chlorine dioxide-iodine-malonic acid reaction are also reported.

Probing elastic anisotropy from defect dynamics in Langmuir monolayers

We study the dynamics of annihilation of point defects in Langmuir monolayers. The absence of hydrodynamic effects allows us to quantitatively relate the asymmetry in defect mobility to the elastic anisotropy of the material, which in turn can be varied through the control of the surface pressure applied to the monolayer. Using the proposed theoretical analysis, we are able to obtain rather elusive equilibrium properties out of relatively simple dynamical measurements. In particular, we measure the elastic constants and their pressure dependence.

Systematic weakly nonlinear analysis of interfacial instabilities in Hele-Shaw flows

We develop a systematic method to derive all orders of mode couplings in a weakly nonlinear approach to the dynamics of the interface between two immiscible viscous fluids in a Hele-Shaw cell. The method is completely general: it applies to arbitrary geometry and driving. Here we apply it to the channel geometry driven by gravity and pressure. The finite radius of convergence of the mode-coupling expansion is found. Calculation up to third-order couplings is done, which is necessary to account for the time-dependent Saffman-Taylor finger solution and the case of zero viscosity contrast. The explicit results provide relevant analytical information about the role that the viscosity contrast and the surface tension play in the dynamics of the system. We finally check the quantitative validity of different orders of approximation and a resummation scheme against a physically relevant, exact time-dependent solution. The agreement between the low-order approximations and the exact solution is excellent within the radius of convergence, and is even reasonably good beyond this radius.

Systematic weakly nonlinear analysis of radial viscous fingering

We present a weakly nonlinear analysis of the interface dynamics in a radial Hele-Shaw cell driven by both injection and rotation. We extend the systematic expansion introduced in [E. Alvarez-Lacalle et al., Phys. Rev. E 64, 016302 (2001)] to the radial geometry, and compute explicitly the first nonlinear contributions. We also find the necessary and sufficient condition for the uniform convergence of the nonlinear expansion. Within this region of convergence, the analytical predictions at low orders are compared satisfactorily to exact solutions and numerical integration of the problem. This is particularly remarkable in configurations (with no counterpart in the channel geometry) for which the interplay between injection and rotation allows that condition to be satisfied at all times. In the case of the purely centrifugal forcing we demonstrate that nonlinear couplings make the interface more unstable for lower viscosity contrast between the fluids.

Dynamics of the two-dimensional gonihedric spin model

In this paper, we study dynamical aspects of the two-dimensional (2D) gonihedric spin model using both numerical and analytical methods. This spin model has vanishing microscopic surface tension and it actually describes an ensemble of loops living on a 2D surface. The self-avoidance of loops is parametrized by a parameter ¿. The ¿=0 model can be mapped to one of the six-vertex models discussed by Baxter, and it does not have critical behavior. We have found that allowing for ¿¿0 does not lead to critical behavior either. Finite-size effects are rather severe, and in order to understand these effects, a finite-volume calculation for non-self-avoiding loops is presented. This model, like his 3D counterpart, exhibits very slow dynamics, but a careful analysis of dynamical observables reveals nonglassy evolution (unlike its 3D counterpart). We find, also in this ¿=0 case, the law that governs the long-time, low-temperature evolution of the system, through a dual description in terms of defects. A power, rather than logarithmic, law for the approach to equilibrium has been found.

Slow Dynamics of Ising Models with Energy Barriers

Using Monte Carlo simulations we study the dynamics of three-dimensional Ising models with nearest-, next-nearest-, and four-spin (plaquette) interactions. During coarsening, such models develop growing energy barriers, which leads to very slow dynamics at low temperature. As already reported, the model with only the plaquette interaction exhibits some of the features characteristic of ordinary glasses: strong metastability of the supercooled liquid, a weak increase of the characteristic length under cooling, stretched-exponential relaxation, and aging. The addition of two-spin interactions, in general, destroys such behavior: the liquid phase loses metastability and the slow-dynamics regime terminates well below the melting transition, which is presumably related with a certain corner-rounding transition. However, for a particular choice of interaction constants, when the ground state is strongly degenerate, our simulations suggest that the slow-dynamics regime extends up to the melting transition. The analysis of these models leads us to the conjecture that in the four-spin Ising model domain walls lose their tension at the glassy transition and that they are basically tensionless in the glassy phase.

Estimating dormant and active hematopoietic stem cell kinetics through extensive modeling of bromodeoxyuridine label-retaining cell dynamics.

Bone marrow hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) are responsible for both lifelong daily maintenance of all blood cells and for repair after cell loss. Until recently the cellular mechanisms by which HSCs accomplish these two very different tasks remained an open question. Biological evidence has now been found for the existence of two related mouse HSC populations. First, a dormant HSC (d-HSC) population which harbors the highest self-renewal potential of all blood cells but is only induced into active self-renewal in response to hematopoietic stress. And second, an active HSC (a-HSC) subset that by and large produces the progenitors and mature cells required for maintenance of day-to-day hematopoiesis. Here we present computational analyses further supporting the d-HSC concept through extensive modeling of experimental DNA label-retaining cell (LRC) data. Our conclusion that the presence of a slowly dividing subpopulation of HSCs is the most likely explanation (amongst the various possible causes including stochastic cellular variation) of the observed long term Bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) retention, is confirmed by the deterministic and stochastic models presented here. Moreover, modeling both HSC BrdU uptake and dilution in three stages and careful treatment of the BrdU detection sensitivity permitted improved estimates of HSC turnover rates. This analysis predicts that d-HSCs cycle about once every 149-193 days and a-HSCs about once every 28-36 days. We further predict that, using LRC assays, a 75%-92.5% purification of d-HSCs can be achieved after 59-130 days of chase. Interestingly, the d-HSC proportion is now estimated to be around 30-45% of total HSCs - more than twice that of our previous estimate.

Solvable dynamics in a system of interacting random tops

A new solvable model of synchronization dynamics is introduced. It consists of a system of long range interacting tops or magnetic moments with random precession frequencies. The model allows for an explicit study of orientational effects in synchronization phenomena as well as nonlinear processes in resonance phenomena in strongly coupled magnetic systems. A stability analysis of the incoherent solution is performed for different types of orientational disorder. A system with orientational disorder always synchronizes in the absence of noise.