Combining Advanced Forecasting Methods with System Dynamics - the Case of Finnish Seaports

Seaports play an important part in the wellbeing of a nation. Many nations are highly dependent on foreign trade and most trade is done using sea vessels. This study is part of a larger research project, where a simulation model is required in order to create further analyses on Finnish macro logistical networks. The objective of this study is to create a system dynamic simulation model, which gives an accurate forecast for the development of demand of Finnish seaports up to 2030. The emphasis on this study is to show how it is possible to create a detailed harbor demand System Dynamic model with the help of statistical methods. The used forecasting methods were ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) and regression models. The created simulation model gives a forecast with confidence intervals and allows studying different scenarios. The building process was found to be a useful one and the built model can be expanded to be more detailed. Required capacity for other parts of the Finnish logistical system could easily be included in the model.

Design and evaluation of learning algorithms for dynamic resource management in virtual networks

Network virtualisation is considerably gaining attentionas a solution to ossification of the Internet. However, thesuccess of network virtualisation will depend in part on how efficientlythe virtual networks utilise substrate network resources.In this paper, we propose a machine learning-based approachto virtual network resource management. We propose to modelthe substrate network as a decentralised system and introducea learning algorithm in each substrate node and substrate link,providing self-organization capabilities. We propose a multiagentlearning algorithm that carries out the substrate network resourcemanagement in a coordinated and decentralised way. The taskof these agents is to use evaluative feedback to learn an optimalpolicy so as to dynamically allocate network resources to virtualnodes and links. The agents ensure that while the virtual networkshave the resources they need at any given time, only the requiredresources are reserved for this purpose. Simulations show thatour dynamic approach significantly improves the virtual networkacceptance ratio and the maximum number of accepted virtualnetwork requests at any time while ensuring that virtual networkquality of service requirements such as packet drop rate andvirtual link delay are not affected.

Dynamic patterns of flow in the workplace: characterizing within-individual variability using a complexity science approach

As a result of the growing interest in studying employee well-being as a complex process that portrays high levels of within-individual variability and evolves over time, this present study considers the experience of flow in the workplace from a nonlinear dynamical systems approach. Our goal is to offer new ways to move the study of employee well-being beyond linear approaches. With nonlinear dynamical systems theory as the backdrop, we conducted a longitudinal study using the experience sampling method and qualitative semi-structured interviews for data collection; 6981 registers of data were collected from a sample of 60 employees. The obtained time series were analyzed using various techniques derived from the nonlinear dynamical systems theory (i.e., recurrence analysis and surrogate data) and multiple correspondence analyses. The results revealed the following: 1) flow in the workplace presents a high degree of within-individual variability; this variability is characterized as chaotic for most of the cases (75%); 2) high levels of flow are associated with chaos; and 3) different dimensions of the flow experience (e.g., merging of action and awareness) as well as individual (e.g., age) and job characteristics (e.g., job tenure) are associated with the emergence of different dynamic patterns (chaotic, linear and random).

Developing the Sourcing with the Purchasing Tool in the Chemical Company

The aim of this research was to investigate Tikkurila Oyj's Vantaa factories' current status in procurement and to develop the reporting of purchases and purchase warehouses, and to measure the activities during the implementation of the new purchasing tool. The implemented purchasing tool was based on ABC-analysis. Based on its reports the importance of performance measurements for the operations of the company, and the purpose of getting transparency to the company's supply chain on the part of purchasing were examined. A successful purchase- and material operation calls for accurate knowledge and professional skills. The research proved that with a separate purchasing tool, that analyses the existing information of the company's production management system, it is possible to get added value to whole supply chain's needs. The analyses and reports of the purchasing tool enable a more harmonized purchasing process at the operative level, and create a basis for internal targets and to their follow-up. At the same time the analyses clarify the current status and development trends of procurement fresh to the management. The increase of the possibilities of exploitation of information technology enables a perfect transparency to the case company's purchase department.

Methods and Models for Accelerating Dynamic Simulation of Fluid Power Circuits

The objective of this dissertation is to improve the dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits. A fluid power circuit is a typical way to implement power transmission in mobile working machines, e.g. cranes, excavators etc. Dynamic simulation is an essential tool in developing controllability and energy-efficient solutions for mobile machines. Efficient dynamic simulation is the basic requirement for the real-time simulation. In the real-time simulation of fluid power circuits there exist numerical problems due to the software and methods used for modelling and integration. A simulation model of a fluid power circuit is typically created using differential and algebraic equations. Efficient numerical methods are required since differential equations must be solved in real time. Unfortunately, simulation software packages offer only a limited selection of numerical solvers. Numerical problems cause noise to the results, which in many cases leads the simulation run to fail. Mathematically the fluid power circuit models are stiff systems of ordinary differential equations. Numerical solution of the stiff systems can be improved by two alternative approaches. The first is to develop numerical solvers suitable for solving stiff systems. The second is to decrease the model stiffness itself by introducing models and algorithms that either decrease the highest eigenvalues or neglect them by introducing steady-state solutions of the stiff parts of the models. The thesis proposes novel methods using the latter approach. The study aims to develop practical methods usable in dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits using explicit fixed-step integration algorithms. In this thesis, twomechanisms whichmake the systemstiff are studied. These are the pressure drop approaching zero in the turbulent orifice model and the volume approaching zero in the equation of pressure build-up. These are the critical areas to which alternative methods for modelling and numerical simulation are proposed. Generally, in hydraulic power transmission systems the orifice flow is clearly in the turbulent area. The flow becomes laminar as the pressure drop over the orifice approaches zero only in rare situations. These are e.g. when a valve is closed, or an actuator is driven against an end stopper, or external force makes actuator to switch its direction during operation. This means that in terms of accuracy, the description of laminar flow is not necessary. But, unfortunately, when a purely turbulent description of the orifice is used, numerical problems occur when the pressure drop comes close to zero since the first derivative of flow with respect to the pressure drop approaches infinity when the pressure drop approaches zero. Furthermore, the second derivative becomes discontinuous, which causes numerical noise and an infinitely small integration step when a variable step integrator is used. A numerically efficient model for the orifice flow is proposed using a cubic spline function to describe the flow in the laminar and transition areas. Parameters for the cubic spline function are selected such that its first derivative is equal to the first derivative of the pure turbulent orifice flow model in the boundary condition. In the dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits, a tradeoff exists between accuracy and calculation speed. This investigation is made for the two-regime flow orifice model. Especially inside of many types of valves, as well as between them, there exist very small volumes. The integration of pressures in small fluid volumes causes numerical problems in fluid power circuit simulation. Particularly in realtime simulation, these numerical problems are a great weakness. The system stiffness approaches infinity as the fluid volume approaches zero. If fixed step explicit algorithms for solving ordinary differential equations (ODE) are used, the system stability would easily be lost when integrating pressures in small volumes. To solve the problem caused by small fluid volumes, a pseudo-dynamic solver is proposed. Instead of integration of the pressure in a small volume, the pressure is solved as a steady-state pressure created in a separate cascade loop by numerical integration. The hydraulic capacitance V/Be of the parts of the circuit whose pressures are solved by the pseudo-dynamic method should be orders of magnitude smaller than that of those partswhose pressures are integrated. The key advantage of this novel method is that the numerical problems caused by the small volumes are completely avoided. Also, the method is freely applicable regardless of the integration routine applied. The superiority of both above-mentioned methods is that they are suited for use together with the semi-empirical modelling method which necessarily does not require any geometrical data of the valves and actuators to be modelled. In this modelling method, most of the needed component information can be taken from the manufacturer’s nominal graphs. This thesis introduces the methods and shows several numerical examples to demonstrate how the proposed methods improve the dynamic simulation of various hydraulic circuits.

Modeling of electrolyte sorption – from phase equilibria to dynamic separation systems

In this thesis, general approach is devised to model electrolyte sorption from aqueous solutions on solid materials. Electrolyte sorption is often considered as unwanted phenomenon in ion exchange and its potential as an independent separation method has not been fully explored. The solid sorbents studied here are porous and non-porous organic or inorganic materials with or without specific functional groups attached on the solid matrix. Accordingly, the sorption mechanisms include physical adsorption, chemisorption on the functional groups and partition restricted by electrostatic or steric factors. The model is tested in four Cases Studies dealing with chelating adsorption of transition metal mixtures, physical adsorption of metal and metalloid complexes from chloride solutions, size exclusion of electrolytes in nano-porous materials and electrolyte exclusion of electrolyte/non-electrolyte mixtures. The model parameters are estimated using experimental data from equilibrium and batch kinetic measurements, and they are used to simulate actual single-column fixed-bed separations. Phase equilibrium between the solution and solid phases is described using thermodynamic Gibbs-Donnan model and various adsorption models depending on the properties of the sorbent. The 3-dimensional thermodynamic approach is used for volume sorption in gel-type ion exchangers and in nano-porous adsorbents, and satisfactory correlation is obtained provided that both mixing and exclusion effects are adequately taken into account. 2-Dimensional surface adsorption models are successfully applied to physical adsorption of complex species and to chelating adsorption of transition metal salts. In the latter case, comparison is also made with complex formation models. Results of the mass transport studies show that uptake rates even in a competitive high-affinity system can be described by constant diffusion coefficients, when the adsorbent structure and the phase equilibrium conditions are adequately included in the model. Furthermore, a simplified solution based on the linear driving force approximation and the shrinking-core model is developed for very non-linear adsorption systems. In each Case Study, the actual separation is carried out batch-wise in fixed-beds and the experimental data are simulated/correlated using the parameters derived from equilibrium and kinetic data. Good agreement between the calculated and experimental break-through curves is usually obtained indicating that the proposed approach is useful in systems, which at first sight are very different. For example, the important improvement in copper separation from concentrated zinc sulfate solution at elevated temperatures can be correctly predicted by the model. In some cases, however, re-adjustment of model parameters is needed due to e.g. high solution viscosity.

System for studies of control strategies applied in the refrigerated chambers

The process of cold storage chambers contributes largely to the quality and longevity of stored products. In recent years, it has been intensified the study of control strategies in order to decrease the temperature change inside the storage chamber and to reduce the electric power consumption. This study has developed a system for data acquisition and process control, in LabVIEW language, to be applied in the cooling system of a refrigerating chamber of 30m³. The use of instrumentation and the application developed fostered the development of scientific experiments, which aimed to study the dynamic behavior of the refrigeration system, compare the performance of control strategies and the heat engine, even due to the controlled temperature, or to the electricity consumption. This system tested the strategies for on-off control, PID and fuzzy. Regarding power consumption, the fuzzy controller showed the best result, saving 10% when compared with other tested strategies.

Auger-type granular fertylizer distributor: matemathical model and dynamic simulation

The objective of this study was to model mathematically and to simulate the dynamic behavior of an auger-type fertilizer applicator (AFA) in order to use the variable-rate application (VRA) and reduce the coefficient of variation (CV) of the application, proposing an angular speed controller θ' for the motor drive shaft. The input model was θ' and the response was the fertilizer mass flow, due to the construction, density of fertilizer, fill factor and the end position of the auger. The model was used to simulate a control system in open loop, with an electric drive for AFA using an armature voltage (V A) controller. By introducing a sinusoidal excitation signal in V A with amplitude and delay phase optimized and varying θ' during an operation cycle, it is obtained a reduction of 29.8% in the CV (constant V A) to 11.4%. The development of the mathematical model was a first step towards the introduction of electric drive systems and closed loop control for the implementation of AFA with low CV in VRA.

Water treatment by multistage filtration system with natural coagulant from Moringa oleifera seeds

This study presents an evaluation of a pilot multistage filtration system (MSF) with different dosages, 131 mg L-1 and 106 mg L-1, of the natural coagulant extracted from Moringa oleifera seeds in pre-filtration and slow filtration stages, respectively. The system was comprised by a dynamic pre-filter unit, two upflow filters in parallel and four slow filters in parallel, and in one of the four filters had the filter media altered. The performance of the system was evaluated by monitoring some water quality parameters such as: turbidity, apparent color and slow filter load loss. The stages that have received the coagulant solution had better treatment efficiency compared with the steps without it. However, the direct application of the coagulant solution in the slow filter caused rapid clogging of the non-woven blanket and shorter career length.

A multibody dynamic model of the cross-country ski-skating technique

The objective of this thesis is the development of a multibody dynamic model matching the observed movements of the lower limb of a skier performing the skating technique in cross-country style. During the construction of this model, the formulation of the equation of motion was made using the Euler - Lagrange approach with multipliers applied to a multibody system in three dimensions. The description of the lower limb of the skate skier and the ski was completed by employing three bodies, one representing the ski, and two representing the natural movements of the leg of the skier. The resultant system has 13 joint constraints due to the interconnection of the bodies, and four prescribed kinematic constraints to account for the movements of the leg, leaving the amount of degrees of freedom equal to one. The push-off force exerted by the skate skier was taken directly from measurements made on-site in the ski tunnel at the Vuokatti facilities (Finland) and was input into the model as a continuous function. Then, the resultant velocities and movement of the ski, center of mass of the skier, and variation of the skating angle were studied to understand the response of the model to the variation of important parameters of the skate technique. This allowed a comparison of the model results with the real movement of the skier. Further developments can be made to this model to better approximate the results to the real movement of the leg. One can achieve this by changing the constraints to include the behavior of the real leg joints and muscle actuation. As mentioned in the introduction of this thesis, a multibody dynamic model can be used to provide relevant information to ski designers and to obtain optimized results of the given variables, which athletes can use to improve their performance.

Development of racemization catalysts for dynamic kinetic resolution

Preparation of optically active compounds is of high importance in modern medicinal chemistry. Despite recent advances in the field of asymmetric synthesis, resolution of racemates still remains the most utilized way for preparation of single enantiomers in industrial scale due to its cost-efficiency and simplicity. Enzymatic kinetic resolution (KR) of racemates is a classical method for separation of enantiomers. One of its drawbacks is the limitation of target enantiomer yield to 50%. Dynamic Kinetic Resolution (DKR) allows to reach yields up to 100% by in situ racemization of the less reactive enantiomer. In the first part of this thesis, a number of half-sandwich ruthenium complexes were prepared and evaluated as catalysts for racemization of optically active secondary alcohols. A leading catalyst, Bn5CpRu(CO)2Cl, was identified. The catalyst discovered was extensively characterized by its application for DKR of a broad range of secondary alcohols in a wide range of reaction loadings (1 mmol – 1 mol). Cost-efficient chromatography-free procedure for preparation of this catalyst was developed. Further, detailed kinetic and mechanistic studies of the racemization reactions were performed. Comparison of racemization rates in the presence of Bn5CpRu(CO)2Cl and Ph5CpRu(CO)2Cl catalysts reveals that the performance of the catalytic system can be adjusted by matching of the electronic properties of the catalysts and the substrates. Moreover, dependence of the rate-limiting step from the electronic properties of the reagents was observed. Important conclusions about reaction mechanism were made. Finally, an alternative approach to DKR of amines based on space separated vessels was addressed. This procedure allows the combination of thermolabile enzyme with racemization catalysts active only at high temperatures.

On Dynamic Monitoring Methods for Networks-on-Chip

Rapid ongoing evolution of multiprocessors will lead to systems with hundreds of processing cores integrated in a single chip. An emerging challenge is the implementation of reliable and efficient interconnection between these cores as well as other components in the systems. Network-on-Chip is an interconnection approach which is intended to solve the performance bottleneck caused by traditional, poorly scalable communication structures such as buses. However, a large on-chip network involves issues related to congestion problems and system control, for instance. Additionally, faults can cause problems in multiprocessor systems. These faults can be transient faults, permanent manufacturing faults, or they can appear due to aging. To solve the emerging traffic management, controllability issues and to maintain system operation regardless of faults a monitoring system is needed. The monitoring system should be dynamically applicable to various purposes and it should fully cover the system under observation. In a large multiprocessor the distances between components can be relatively long. Therefore, the system should be designed so that the amount of energy-inefficient long-distance communication is minimized. This thesis presents a dynamically clustered distributed monitoring structure. The monitoring is distributed so that no centralized control is required for basic tasks such as traffic management and task mapping. To enable extensive analysis of different Network-on-Chip architectures, an in-house SystemC based simulation environment was implemented. It allows transaction level analysis without time consuming circuit level implementations during early design phases of novel architectures and features. The presented analysis shows that the dynamically clustered monitoring structure can be efficiently utilized for traffic management in faulty and congested Network-on-Chip-based multiprocessor systems. The monitoring structure can be also successfully applied for task mapping purposes. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the presented in-house simulation environment is flexible and practical tool for extensive Network-on-Chip architecture analysis.

Experimental validation of a 3-D vision-based measurement system applied to robot calibration

One of the problems that slows the development of off-line programming is the low static and dynamic positioning accuracy of robots. Robot calibration improves the positioning accuracy and can also be used as a diagnostic tool in robot production and maintenance. A large number of robot measurement systems are now available commercially. Yet, there is a dearth of systems that are portable, accurate and low cost. In this work a measurement system that can fill this gap in local calibration is presented. The measurement system consists of a single CCD camera mounted on the robot tool flange with a wide angle lens, and uses space resection models to measure the end-effector pose relative to a world coordinate system, considering radial distortions. Scale factors and image center are obtained with innovative techniques, making use of a multiview approach. The target plate consists of a grid of white dots impressed on a black photographic paper, and mounted on the sides of a 90-degree angle plate. Results show that the achieved average accuracy varies from 0.2mm to 0.4mm, at distances from the target from 600mm to 1000mm respectively, with different camera orientations.

Dynamic Analysis Model of Spherical Roller Bearings with Defects

Rolling element bearings are essential components of rotating machinery. The spherical roller bearing (SRB) is one variant seeing increasing use, because it is self-aligning and can support high loads. It is becoming increasingly important to understand how the SRB responds dynamically under a variety of conditions. This doctoral dissertation introduces a computationally efficient, three-degree-of-freedom, SRB model that was developed to predict the transient dynamic behaviors of a rotor-SRB system. In the model, bearing forces and deflections were calculated as a function of contact deformation and bearing geometry parameters according to nonlinear Hertzian contact theory. The results reveal how some of the more important parameters; such as diametral clearance, the number of rollers, and osculation number; influence ultimate bearing performance. Distributed defects, such as the waviness of the inner and outer ring, and localized defects, such as inner and outer ring defects, are taken into consideration in the proposed model. Simulation results were verified with results obtained by applying the formula for the spherical roller bearing radial deflection and the commercial bearing analysis software. Following model verification, a numerical simulation was carried out successfully for a full rotor-bearing system to demonstrate the application of this newly developed SRB model in a typical real world analysis. Accuracy of the model was verified by comparing measured to predicted behaviors for equivalent systems.

Cardiorespiratory adaptations induced by aerobic training in middle-aged men: the importance of a decrease in sympathetic stimulation for the contribution of dynamic exercise tachycardia

We investigated the effects of aerobic training on the efferent autonomic control of heart rate (HR) during dynamic exercise in middle-aged men, eight of whom underwent exercise training (T) while the other seven continued their sedentary (S) life style. The training was conducted over 10 months (three 1-h sessions/week on a field track at 70-85% of the peak HR). The contribution of sympathetic and parasympathetic exercise tachycardia was determined in terms of differences in the time constant effects on the HR response obtained using a discontinuous protocol (4-min tests at 25, 50, 100 and 125 watts on a cycle ergometer), and a continuous protocol (25 watts/min until exhaustion) allowed the quantification of the parameters (anaerobic threshold, VO2 AT; peak O2 uptake, VO2 peak; power peak) that reflect oxygen transport. The results obtained for the S and the T groups were: 1) a smaller resting HR in T (66 beats/min) when compared to S (84 beats/min); 2) during exercise, a small increase in the fast tachycardia (D0-10 s) related to vagal withdrawal (P<0.05, only at 25 watts) was observed in T at all powers; at middle and higher powers a significant decrease (P<0.05 at 50, 100 and 125 watts) in the slow tachycardia (D1-4 min) related to a sympathetic-dependent mechanism was observed in T; 3) the VO2 AT (S = 1.06 and T = 1.33 l/min) and VO2 peak (S = 1.97 and T = 2.47 l/min) were higher in T (P<0.05). These results demonstrate that aerobic training can induce significant physiological adaptations in middle-aged men, mainly expressed as a decrease in the sympathetic effects on heart rate associated with an increase in oxygen transport during dynamic exercise.