Exploiting satellite-based rainfall for weather index insurance: the challenges of spatial and temporal aggregation

Lack of access to insurance exacerbates the impact of climate variability on smallholder famers in Africa. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, weather index insurance (WII) pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. In principle, WII could be provided to farmers throughout Africa. There are two data-related hurdles to this. First, most farmers do not live close enough to a rain gauge with sufficiently long record of observations. Second, mismatches between weather indices and yield may expose farmers to uncompensated losses, and insurers to unfair payouts – a phenomenon known as basis risk. In essence, basis risk results from complexities in the progression from meteorological drought (rainfall deficit) to agricultural drought (low soil moisture). In this study, we use a land-surface model to describe the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought. We demonstrate that spatial and temporal aggregation of rainfall results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a reduction in basis risk. We then use an advanced statistical method to show how optimal aggregation of satellite-based rainfall estimates can reduce basis risk, enabling remotely sensed data to be utilized robustly for WII.

The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia

Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information. This is especially challenging in regions, such as Africa, which lack gauge data for validation. In this study, we show how calibrated ensembles of equally likely rainfall can be used to infer uncertainty in remotely sensed rainfall estimates, and subsequently in assessment of drought. We illustrate the methodology through a case study of weather index insurance (WII) in Zambia. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, WII pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. As remotely sensed rainfall is used to extend WII schemes to large numbers of farmers, it is crucial to ensure that the indices being insured are skillful representations of local environmental conditions. In our study we drive a land surface model with rainfall ensembles, in order to demonstrate how aggregation of rainfall estimates in space and time results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a truer representation of agricultural drought. Although our study focuses on agricultural insurance, the methodological principles for application design are widely applicable in Africa and elsewhere.

Gravimetric study of a potential mineral deposit in the Itapororoca region, Brazil

A semi-detailed gravity survey was carried out over an area of 650 km(2) localized in the Eo-Neoproterozoic coastal zone of Paraiba State where 548 new gravity stations were added to the existing database. Gravity measurements were made with a LaCoste and Romberg model G meter with a precision of 0.04 mGal. The altitude was determined by barometric levelling with a fixed base achieving a 1.2 m measure of uncertainty, corresponding to an overall accuracy of 0.24 mGal for the Bouguer anomaly. The residual Bouguer map for a 7th degree regional polynomial showed a circumscribed negative anomaly coincident with a localized aero-magnetic anomaly and with hydro-thermally altered outcrops, near the city of Itapororoca. The 3D gravity modelling, constrained by geologic mapping was interpreted as a low density, fractured and/or altered material with a most probable volume of approximately 23 km(3), extending to about 8,500 m depth. This result is in accordance with a volcanic body associated with hydrothermal processes accompanied by surface mineralization evidence, which may be of interest to the mining industry.

Pinguino In-bearing polymetallic vein deposit, Deseado Massif, Patagonia, Argentina: characteristics of mineralization and ore-forming fluids

The Pinguino deposit, located in the low sulfidation epithermal metallogenetical province of the Deseado Massif, Patagonia, Argentina, represents a distinct deposit type in the region. It evolved through two different mineralization events: an early In-bearing polymetallic event that introduced In, Zn, Pb, Ag, Cd, Au, As, Cu, Sn, W and Bi represented by complex sulfide mineralogy, and a late Ag-Au quartz-rich vein type that crosscut and overprints the early polymetallic mineralization. The indium-bearing polymetallic mineralization developed in three stages: an early Cu-Au-In-As-Sn-W-Bi stage (Ps(1)), a Zn-Pb-Ag-In-Cd-Sb stage (Ps(2)) and a late Zn-In-Cd (Ps(3)). Indium concentrations in the polymetallic veins show a wide range (3.4 to 1,184 ppm In). The highest indium values (up to 1,184 ppm) relate to the Ps(2) mineralization stage, and are associated with Fe-rich sphalerites, although significant In enrichment (up to 159 ppm) is also present in the Ps(1) paragenesis associated with Sn-minerals (ferrokesterite and cassiterite). The hydrothermal alteration associated with the polymetallic mineralization is characterized by advanced argillic alteration within the immediate vein zone, and sericitic alteration enveloping the vein zone. Fluid inclusion studies indicate homogenisation temperatures of 308.2-327A degrees C for Ps(1) and 255-312.4A degrees C for Ps(2), and low to moderate salinities (2 to 5 eq.wt.% NaCl and 4 to 9 eq.wt.% NaCl, respectively). delta(34)S values of sulfide minerals (+0.76aEuro degrees to +3.61aEuro degrees) indicate a possible magmatic source for the sulfur in the polymetallic mineralization while Pb isotope ratios for the sulfides and magmatic rocks ((206)Pb/(204)Pb, (207)Pb/(204)Pb and (208)Pb/(204)Pb ratios of 17.379 to 18.502; 15.588 to 15.730 and 38.234 to 38.756, respectively) are consistent with the possibility that the Pb reservoirs for both had the same crustal source. Spatial relationships, hydrothermal alteration styles, S and Pb isotopic data suggest a probable genetic relation between the polymetallic mineralization and dioritic intrusions that could have been the source of metals and hydrothermal fluids. Mineralization paragenesis, alteration mineralogy, geochemical signatures, fluid inclusion data and isotopic data, confirm that the In-bearing polymetallic mineralization from Pinguino deposit is a distinct type, in comparison with the well-known epithermal low sulfidation mineralization from the Deseado Massif.

Isotopic evidence for the late Brasiliano (500-550 Ma) ore-forming mineralization of the Araes gold deposit, Brazil

The Araes gold deposit, located in eastern Mato Grosso State, central Brazil, is hosted in Neoproterozoic volcanosedimentary rocks of the Paraguay belt, which formed during collision of the Amazonian craton and the Rio Apa block. Ar-40/Ar-39 geochronology and Pb and S isotopic analyses constrain the timing and sources of mineralization. Three biotite flakes from two samples of metavolcanic host rock yield Ar-40/Ar-39 plateau ages between 5941 and 531 Ma, interpreted as cooling ages following regional metamorphism. Clay minerals from a hydrothermal alteration zone yield an Ar-40/Ar-39 integrated age of 503 +/- 3 Ma. Galena grains from ore-bearing veins yield values of Pb-206/(204)pb from 17.952 to 18.383, Pb-207/Pb-204 from 15.156 to 15.811, and Pb-208/Pb-204 from 38.072 to 39.681. Pyrite grains from ore-bearing veins yield values of Pb-206/Pb-204 from 18.037 to 18.202, Pb-207/Pb-204 from 15.744 to 15.901., and Pb-208/(204)pb from 38.338 to 38.800. Pb isotope variations may be explained in terms of mixing a less radiogenic lead component (mu similar to 8.4) from mafic and ultramafic basement host-rocks (Nova Xavantina metavolcanosedimentary rocks) and a more radiogenic lead component (mu similar to 9.2) probably derived from supracrustal rocks (Cuiaba sedimentary groups). Sulfur isotope compositions are homogeneous, with delta S-34 values ranging from -1.1 parts per thousand to 0.9 parts per thousand (galena) and -0.7 parts per thousand to 0.9 parts per thousand (pyrite), suggesting a mantle-derived reservoir for the mineralizing solutions. Based on the Ar, Pb, and S isotope data, we suggest that the precious metals were remobilized from metavolcanic host rocks by hydrothermal solutions during Brasilide-Panafrican regional metamorphism. The Arabs gold deposit probably formed during a late stage of the orogeny, coeval with other mineralization events in the Paraguay Belt.

Non-monotone insurance contracts and their empirical consequences

The goal of this paper is to show the possibility of a non-monotone relation between coverage ans risk which has been considered in the literature of insurance models since the work of Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976). We present an insurance model where the insured agents have heterogeneity in risk aversion and in lenience (a prevention cost parameter). Risk aversion is described by a continuous parameter which is correlated with lenience and for the sake of simplicity, we assume perfect correlation. In the case of positive correlation, the more risk averse agent has higher cosr of prevention leading to a higher demand for coverage. Equivalently, the single crossing property (SCP) is valid and iplies a positive correlation between overage and risk in equilibrium. On the other hand, if the correlation between risk aversion and lenience is negative, not only may the SCP be broken, but also the monotonocity of contracts, i.e., the prediction that high (low) risk averse types choose full (partial) insurance. In both cases riskiness is monotonic in risk aversion, but in the last case there are some coverage levels associated with two different risks (low and high), which implies that the ex-ante (with respect to the risk aversion distribution) correlation between coverage and riskiness may have every sign (even though the ex-post correlation is always positive). Moreover, using another instrument (a proxy for riskiness), we give a testable implication to desentangle single crossing ans non single croosing under an ex-post zero correlation result: the monotonicity of coverage as a function os riskiness. Since by controlling for risk aversion (no asymmetric information), coverage is monotone function of riskiness, this also fives a test for asymmetric information. Finally, we relate this theoretical results to empirical tests in the recent literature, specially the Dionne, Gouruéroux and Vanasse (2001) work. In particular, they found an empirical evidence that seems to be compatible with asymmetric information and non single crossing in our framework. More generally, we build a hidden information model showing how omitted variables (asymmetric information) can bias the sign of the correlation of equilibrium variables conditioning on all observable variables. We show that this may be the case when the omitted variables have a non-monotonic relation with the observable ones. Moreover, because this non-dimensional does not capture this deature. Hence, our main results is to point out the importance of the SPC in testing predictions of the hidden information models.

The insurance function of contracts

One of the central problems in contract law is to define the frontier between legal and illegal breaches of promises. The distinction between good and bad faith is perhaps the conceptual tool most commonly used to tell one from the other. Lawyers spend a lot of energy trying to frame better definitions of the concepts of good and bad faith based on principles of ethics or justice, but often pay much less attention to theories dealing with the incentives that can engender good faith behavior in contractual relationships. By describing the economics of what Stiglitz defined as “explicit” and “implicit” insurance, I highlight the “insurance function” hidden in any promise with basically no mathematical notation. My aim is to render the subject intelligible and useful to lawyers with little familiarity with economics.

On insurance markets with endogenous information acquisition: A robust mechanism design approach

Neste trabalho propomos a aplicação das noções de equilíbrio da recente literatura de desenho de mecanismo robusto com aquisição de informação endógena a um problema de divisão de risco entre dois agentes. Através deste exemplo somos capazes de motivar o uso desta noção de equilíbrio, assim como discutir os efeitos da introdu ção de uma restrição de participação que seja dependente da informação. A simplicidade do modelo nos permite caracterizar a possibilidade de implementar a alocação Pareto efiente em termos do custo de aquisição da informação. Além disso, mostramos que a precisão da informação pode ter um efeito negativo sobre a implementação da alocação efi ciente. Ao final, sao dados dois exemplos específicos de situações nas quais este modelo se aplica.

Unemployment insurance an analysis of optimal mechanisms under aggregate shocks

The purpose of this work is to provide a brief overview of the literature on the optimal design of unemployment insurance systems by analyzing some of the most influential articles published over the last three decades on the subject and extend the main results to a multiple aggregate shocks environment. The properties of optimal contracts are discussed in light of the key assumptions commonly made in theoretical publications on the area. Moreover, the implications of relaxing each of these hypothesis is reckoned as well. The analysis of models of only one unemployment spell starts from the seminal work of Shavell and Weiss (1979). In a simple and common setting, unemployment benefits policies, wage taxes and search effort assignments are covered. Further, the idea that the UI distortion of the relative price of leisure and consumption is the only explanation for the marginal incentives to search for a job is discussed, putting into question the reduction in labor supply caused by social insurance, usually interpreted as solely an evidence of a dynamic moral hazard caused by a substitution effect. In addition, the paper presents one characterization of optimal unemployment insurance contracts in environments in which workers experience multiple unemployment spells. Finally, an extension to multiple aggregate shocks environment is considered. The paper ends with a numerical analysis of the implications of i.i.d. shocks to the optimal unemployment insurance mechanism.

Determinants for political risk insurance of direct investments in emerging markets

Esta dissertação analisa os principais determinantes para investidores contratarem seguro de proteção de riscos políticos (PRI) para seus investimentos diretos, assim com o racional de sair de um PRI não renovando suas políticas. Esta dissertação contribui para a literatura existente sobre PRI, investigando os principais motivadores para PRI, tais como, riscos políticos, riscos econômicos, capacidade do patrocinador, instrumento utilizado para realizar o investimento (horizonte do investimento) determina combinações de PRI utilizando um modelo binário de resposta não linear. Um banco de dados único da Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) no período de 1990 até 2010, contendo informações sobre 693 investimentos incluindo sua cobertura para: seguro de risco de conversibilidade, seguro para risco de expropriação, riscos de guerras e distúrbios civis e riscos de quebra de contrato. Entretanto, percebemos que 47% destes seguros não permanecem ativos até o prazo originalmente contratado. Adicionalmente, instituições financeiras como garantidoras utilizam proporcionalmente mais dívida do que capital como instrumento de investimento e são largamente seguradas dentro da União Européia (EU). Por outro lado, investidores nos BRICs tendem a cobrir primariamente seus investimentos em infraestrutura. Resultados empíricos incluem que um aumento nos riscos de quebra de contrato e guerra civil estão totalmente correlacionados com a renovação de contratos de seguro, assim como um aumento da percepção de risco do pais que está recebendo o investimento.

Commodity Taxation and Social Insurance

We investigate optimal commodity taxation in a social insurance framework based on Varian (1980). We show that the tax prescriptions in this moral hazard framework are notably similar to those derive

On the cost of sympathy : a alternative model of insurance markets

The paper provides an alternative model for insurance market with three types of agents: households, providers of a service and insurance companies. Households have uncertainty about future leveIs of income. Providers, if hired by a household, perform a diagnoses and privately learn a signal. For each signal there is a procedure that maximizes the likelihood of the household obtaining the good state of nature. The paper assumes that providers care about their income and also about the likelihood households will obtain the good state of nature (sympathy assumption). This assumption is satisfied if, for example, they care about their reputation or if there are possible litigation costs in case they do not use the appropriate procedure. Finally, insurance companies offer contracts to both providers and households. The paper provides sufficient conditions for the existence of equilibrium and shows that the sympathy assumption 1eads to a 10ss of welfare for the households due to the need to incentive providers to choose the least expensive treatment.

Do insurance defrauders want to be punished?

We analyze a Principal-Agent model of an insurer who faces an adverse selection problem. He is unable to observe if his client has a high risk or a low risk of having an accident. At the underwriting of the contract, the insurer requests the client to declare his risk. After that, the former can costly audit the truthfulness of this announcement. If the audit confirms a false declaration, the insurer is legally allowed to punish the defrauder. We characterize the efRcient contracts when this punishment is bounded from above by a legal restriction. Then, we do some comparative statics on the efRcient contracts and on the agent's utility. The most important result of this paper concerns the legal limit to a defrauder's punishment. We prove that there exists a uni que value of this legal limit that maximizes the expected utility of a high risk type. Facing this particular value of the legal limit to a defrauder's punishment, the insurer will effectively audit a low risk reporto We also show that this particular value increases with the probability of facing a high risk policyholder. Therefore, when this probability is sufRciently high, the nullity of the contract is not enough. From the point of view of a potential defrauder, the law should allow harder sanctions. This is an striking result because the nullity of the contract is a common sanction for this kind of fraud in the USA and in some European countries.

Project portfolio management: an analysis from the insurance industry IT area

This paper aims to bring more information related to the critical question "how IT areas of insurance companies are defining and delivering their strategic initiatives Portfolios?" and make conclusions based on the collected data. To reach these interpretations, it is composed of a theoretical investigation on the theme, a strategy delineation for the research methodology and a conclusion presentation based on the findings. In this last part, this study concluded that explored organization does not applied a sufficient number of best practices answering the critical question as "the company is not mature on this subject".