A Theory of Random Consumer Demand

This paper presents a new theory of random consumer demand. The primitive is a collection of probability distributions, rather than a binary preference. Various assumptions constrain these distributions, including analogues of common assumptions about preferences such as transitivity, monotonicity and convexity. Two results establish a complete representation of theoretically consistent random demand. The purpose of this theory of random consumer demand is application to empirical consumer demand problems. To this end, the theory has several desirable properties. It is intrinsically stochastic, so the econometrician can apply it directly without adding extrinsic randomness in the form of residuals. Random demand is parsimoniously represented by a single function on the consumption set. Finally, we have a practical method for statistical inference based on the theory, described in McCausland (2004), a companion paper.

Bayesian Analysis for a Theory of Random Consumer Demand: The Case of Indivisible Goods

McCausland (2004a) describes a new theory of random consumer demand. Theoretically consistent random demand can be represented by a \"regular\" \"L-utility\" function on the consumption set X. The present paper is about Bayesian inference for regular L-utility functions. We express prior and posterior uncertainty in terms of distributions over the indefinite-dimensional parameter set of a flexible functional form. We propose a class of proper priors on the parameter set. The priors are flexible, in the sense that they put positive probability in the neighborhood of any L-utility function that is regular on a large subset bar(X) of X; and regular, in the sense that they assign zero probability to the set of L-utility functions that are irregular on bar(X). We propose methods of Bayesian inference for an environment with indivisible goods, leaving the more difficult case of indefinitely divisible goods for another paper. We analyse individual choice data from a consumer experiment described in Harbaugh et al. (2001).

ITEM : An Integrated Transport Economy Model - Price Elasticities of Freight Transport Demand in Canada : Three Canadian Markets and Four Commodities.

Rapport de recherche

Investment Under Demand Uncertainty: the Newsboy Problem Revisited.

In this article we study the effect of uncertainty on an entrepreneur who must choose the capacity of his business before knowing the demand for his product. The unit profit of operation is known with certainty but there is no flexibility in our one-period framework. We show how the introduction of global uncertainty reduces the investment of the risk neutral entrepreneur and, even more, that the risk averse one. We also show how marginal increases in risk reduce the optimal capacity of both the risk neutral and the risk averse entrepreneur, without any restriction on the concave utility function and with limited restrictions on the definition of a mean preserving spread. These general results are explained by the fact that the newsboy has a piecewise-linear, and concave, monetary payoff witha kink endogenously determined at the level of optimal capacity. Our results are compared with those in the two literatures on price uncertainty and demand uncertainty, and particularly, with the recent contributions of Eeckhoudt, Gollier and Schlesinger (1991, 1995).

Demand-driven type analysis for dynamically-typed functional languages

Thèse diffusée initialement dans le cadre d'un projet pilote des Presses de l'Université de Montréal/Centre d'édition numérique UdeM (1997-2008) avec l'autorisation de l'auteur.

Preparation, characterization, and rheological properties of star-shaped poly(ethylene glycol) with a cholane core and study of its effect on red blood cell aggregation

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Strategy-proof preference aggregation

An aggregation rule maps each profile of individual strict preference orderings over a set of alternatives into a social ordering over that set. We call such a rule strategyproof if misreporting one’s preference never produces a social ordering that is strictly between the original ordering and one’s own preference. After describing a few examples of manipulable rules, we study in some detail three classes of strategy-proof rules: (i)rules based on a monotonic alteration of the majority relation generated by the preference profile; (ii)rules improving upon a fixed status-quo; and (iii) rules generalizing the Condorcet-Kemeny aggregation method.

New stimuli-responsive block random copolymers and their aggregation

Les polymères sensibles à des stimuli ont été largement étudiés ces dernières années notamment en vue d’applications biomédicales. Ceux-ci ont la capacité de changer leurs propriétés de solubilité face à des variations de pH ou de température. Le but de cette thèse concerne la synthèse et l’étude de nouveaux diblocs composés de deux copolymères aléatoires. Les polymères ont été obtenus par polymérisation radicalaire contrôlée du type RAFT (reversible addition-fragmentation chain-transfer). Les polymères à bloc sont formés de monomères de méthacrylates et/ou d’acrylamides dont les polymères sont reconnus comme thermosensibles et sensible au pH. Premièrement, les copolymères à bloc aléatoires du type AnBm-b-ApBq ont été synthétisés à partir de N-n-propylacrylamide (nPA) et de N-ethylacrylamide (EA), respectivement A et B, par polymérisation RAFT. La cinétique de copolymérisation des poly(nPAx-co-EA1-x)-block-poly(nPAy-co-EA1-y) et leur composition ont été étudiées afin de caractériser et évaluer les propriétés physico-chimiques des copolymères à bloc aléatoires avec un faible indice de polydispersité . Leurs caractères thermosensibles ont été étudiés en solution aqueuse par spectroscopie UV-Vis, turbidimétrie et analyse de la diffusion dynamique de la lumière (DLS). Les points de trouble (CP) observés des blocs individuels et des copolymères formés démontrent des phases de transitions bien définies lors de la chauffe. Un grand nombre de macromolécules naturels démontrent des réponses aux stimuli externes tels que le pH et la température. Aussi, un troisième monomère, 2-diethylaminoethyl methacrylate (DEAEMA), a été ajouté à la synthèse pour former des copolymères à bloc , sous la forme AnBm-b-ApCq , et qui offre une double réponse (pH et température), modulable en solution. Ce type de polymère, aux multiples stimuli, de la forme poly(nPAx-co-DEAEMA1-x)-block-poly(nPAy-co-EA1-y), a lui aussi été synthétisé par polymérisation RAFT. Les résultats indiquent des copolymères à bloc aléatoires aux propriétés physico-chimiques différentes des premiers diblocs, notamment leur solubilité face aux variations de pH et de température. Enfin, le changement d’hydrophobie des copolymères a été étudié en faisant varier la longueur des séquences des blocs. Il est reconnu que la longueur relative des blocs affecte les mécanismes d’agrégation d’un copolymère amphiphile. Ainsi avec différents stimuli de pH et/ou de température, les expériences effectuées sur des copolymères à blocaléatoires de différentes longueurs montrent des comportements d’agrégation intéressants, évoluant sous différentes formes micellaires, d’agrégats et de vésicules.

Ambiguity on the insurer's side: the demand for insurance

Empirical evidence suggests that ambiguity is prevalent in insurance pricing and underwriting, and that often insurers tend to exhibit more ambiguity than the insured individuals (e.g., [23]). Motivated by these findings, we consider a problem of demand for insurance indemnity schedules, where the insurer has ambiguous beliefs about the realizations of the insurable loss, whereas the insured is an expected-utility maximizer. We show that if the ambiguous beliefs of the insurer satisfy a property of compatibility with the non-ambiguous beliefs of the insured, then there exist optimal monotonic indemnity schedules. By virtue of monotonicity, no ex-post moral hazard issues arise at our solutions (e.g., [25]). In addition, in the case where the insurer is either ambiguity-seeking or ambiguity-averse, we show that the problem of determining the optimal indemnity schedule reduces to that of solving an auxiliary problem that is simpler than the original one in that it does not involve ambiguity. Finally, under additional assumptions, we give an explicit characterization of the optimal indemnity schedule for the insured, and we show how our results naturally extend the classical result of Arrow [5] on the optimality of the deductible indemnity schedule.