Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARs

This paper is motivated by the recent interest in the use of Bayesian VARs for forecasting, even in cases where the number of dependent variables is large. In such cases, factor methods have been traditionally used but recent work using a particular prior suggests that Bayesian VAR methods can forecast better. In this paper, we consider a range of alternative priors which have been used with small VARs, discuss the issues which arise when they are used with medium and large VARs and examine their forecast performance using a US macroeconomic data set containing 168 variables. We nd that Bayesian VARs do tend to forecast better than factor methods and provide an extensive comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches. Our empirical results show the importance of using forecast metrics which use the entire predictive density, instead of using only point forecasts.

Medium-term protocols for in vivo evaluation of chemical modifiers of carcinogenesis

Cancer development is a long-term multistep process which allows interventional measure before the clincial disease emerges. the detection of natural substances which can block the process of carcinogenesis is a important as the identification of anti-tumoral drugs since they might be used in chemoprevention of cancer in high-risk groups. In vivo rodent models of chemical caecinogenesis have been used to study plant-derived inhibitors of carcinofenesis such as indols, coumarins, isothiocyanates, flavones, phenols and allyl-sulfides. Since the standard in vivo rodent bioassay is prolonged and expensive, shorter reliable protocols are needed. Two in vivo medium-term protocols for evaluation of modifiers of carcinogenesis are presented, one related to liver and the other to bladder cancer. Both protocols use rats, last 8 and 36 weeks and are based on the two-step concept of carcinogenesis: initiation and promotion. The protocols use respectively the development of altered foci of hepatocytes expressing immunochistochemically the placental form of gluthation S-transferase and the appearence of pre-neoplastic urothelium and papillomas as the "end-points". the use of these protocols for detection of plantpderived inhibitors of carcinogenesis appear warranted.

Antimalarial chemotherapy with natural products and chemically defined molecules

In the present work we have described the in vivo antimalarial actrivity of six different plants. Two of them (Verninia brasiliana and Eupatorium squalidum) were tested in a randomic approach among 273 crude extracts from plants; four (Acanhospermum australe, Esenbeckia febrifuga, Lisianthus specious and Tachia guianensis) were selected after screening 22 crude extracts from different medicinal and some of them showed antimalarial activity in vitro. Some aspects of recent research with natural products aiming to produce drugs are discussed.

Postmortem computed tomography angiography, contrast medium administration and toxicological analyses in urine.

Postmortem angiography methods that use water soluble or lipid soluble liquid contrast compounds may potentially modify the composition of fluid-based biological samples and thus influence toxicological findings. In this study, we investigated whether toxicological investigations performed in urine collected prior to and post angiography using Angiofil? mixed with paraffin oil are characterized by different qualitative or quantitative results. In addition, we studied whether diluting samples with 1% and 3% contrast medium solution may modify molecule concentration. A postmortem angiography group consisting of 50 cases and a postmortem group without angiography consisting of 50 cases were formed. In the first group, toxicological investigations were performed in urine samples collected prior to and post angiography as well as in undiluted and diluted samples. In the second group, analyses were performed in undiluted and diluted urine, bile, gastric content, cerebrospinal and pericardial fluids collected during autopsy. The preliminary results indicate that differences may be observed between urine samples collected prior to and post angiography in the number of identified molecules in relation to specific cases. Analyses performed in diluted samples failed to reveal differences that might potentially alter the interpretation of toxicological results in all analyzed specimens for nearly all molecules, except for tetrahydrocannabinol and its metabolites. Though these findings suggest that toxicology might be effectively performed, in very special cases and for a large number of molecules, in biological samples collected after angiography, it remains recommendable to collect biological fluids for toxicology prior to contrast medium injection.

Heterogeneity of Ia antigen expression on myeloblastic leukaemias: correlation with stage of maturation defined by cytochemical markers.

The expression of Ia-like antigen (Ia) has been studied in 55 cases of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) in correlation with the expression of both Sudan Black (SB) and naphthol AS-D chloroacetate esterase (NCAE) stains. Operationally the AML cases were divided into three groups using only NCAE expression on the leukaemic cells: the first group with early maturation stage (MS1) consisted of 30 cases with less than 10% NCAE positive cells (SB: 15-100%): the MS2 group of 14 cases with 10-70% NCAE positive cells (SB: 65-100%) and the MS3 group of 11 cases with 70-100% NCAE positive cells (SB: 89-100%). Ia expression was determined by complement-dependent cytotoxicity, immunofluorescence and immunoperoxidase methods. A similar high percentage (80%) of patients from both group MS1 and MS2 expressed Ia on the surface of 32-100% of the cells. Furthermore, individual comparison of all cases from these two groups showed no correlation between Ia, NCAE and SB expression. Only in the 11 cases from the MS3 group, which included nine cases of promyelocytic leukaemias, was there a correlation between very low expression of Ia antigen with the high NCAE expression. Thus, for AML with a low degree of differentiation the expression of Ia seems to be independent of conventional cytochemical markers of cell maturation.

Use of a selective medium with potassium tellurite to follow intestinal colonization of hospitalized patients by drug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae

Nosocomial infections are a relevant factor in complicating the recovery of patients interned for even minor causes. In attempt to determine their origin it is crucial to consider that their origin is of an endogenous nature. Looking for an acessible expression of intestinal colonization we analyzed fecal samples from 3 separate groups of hospital patients collected after different lenghts of time. For practical reasons one group was studied prospectively and two other groups (patients hospitalized for up to 7 days and patients hospitalized for more than 7 days) were compared to one another. We looked for the emergence of tellurite resistance among Enterobacteriaceae using a selective medium. MacConkey potassium tellurite (MCPT). The frequence of prospectively studied patients with tellurite resistant strains was significantly greater after 7 days of hospitalization. For the two other groups, patients with more than 7 days of hospitalization showed a significant increase of bacterial species and of strains with new antimicrobial resistance markers. High molecular weigth plasmids were detected in some of these strains. These data show that the MCPT medium is a useful tool for the investigation of bowel colonization in hospitalized patients by drug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae.

Trypanosoma cruzi defined antigens in the serological evaluation of an outbreak of acute Chagas disease in Brazil (Catolé do Rocha, Paraíba)

Immunoglobulin G and M humoral response to recombinant protein B13 and glycoconjugate LPPG Trypanosoma cruzi defined antigens was evaluated by ELISA in 18 patients in the acute phase of Chagas disease, who were contaminated on the same occasion. LPPG showed 100% positivity detecting both IgM and IgG antibodies, while positivity of 55-65% was observed for B13. An epimastigote alkaline extract (EPI) also showed high sensitivity for acute IgM (100%) and IgG (90%) antibodies. However LPPG had better discriminatory reactivity since with EPI two patients showed negative IgG and several other sera presented OD values for IgG and IgM antibodies very close to the cutoff. Thus, it is suggested that detection of IgM antibodies by LPPG may be used for diagnosis of the acute phase of Chagas disease. An intense decline of IgG and IgM antibodies to the three antigens was observed in response to anti-T. cruzi chemotherapy in all acute phase patients. After treatment, six (30%) individuals maintained IgG positivity to EPI, LPPG, and B13 with lower reactivity than that measured at the acute phase. For comparison, serology of a group of 22 patients in the chronic phase of Chagas disease and also submitted to chemotherapy was determined. Positive IgM antibodies to EPI, LPPG and B13 were detected in only 5-9% cases. In all chronic-phase patients IgG antibodies highly reactive to the three antigens were present and no significant decrease resulted after benznidazole administration. These observations reinforce previous reports that treatment in the acute phase may reduce or eliminate the parasite.