Scenario planning:teaching how to anticipate perceived environmental uncertainty within strategy development

Scenario Planning is a strategy tool with growing popularity in both academia and practical situations. Current practices in the teaching of scenario planning are largely based on existing literature which utilises scenario planning to develop strategies for the future, primarily considering the assessment of perceived macro-external environmental uncertainties. However there is a body of literature hitherto ignored by scenario planning researchers, which suggests that Perceived Environmental Uncertainty (PEU) influences micro-external or industrial environmental as well as the internal environment of the organisation. This paper provides a review of the most dominant theories on scenario planning process, demonstrates the need to consider PEU theory within scenario planning and presents how this can be done. The scope of this paper is to enhance the scenario planning process as a tool taught for Strategy Development. A case vignette is developed based on published scenarios to demonstrate the potential utilisation of the proposed process.

A systems approach to strategic manpower planning for technological development under conditions of manpower scarcity and centralised control

This thesis deals with the integration of the manpower criterion with the strategic decision making processes of technological projects in developing countries. This integration is to be achieved by ensuring the involvement of the actors, who have relevant roles and responsibilities along the whole life cycle of the project, in the strategic decision making phases of the project. The relevance of the actors is ascertained by the use of a responsibility index which relates their responsibility to the project's constituent stages. In the context of a technological project in a typical centrally-planned developing environment, the actors are identified as Arbiters, Planners, Implementors and Operators and their roles, concerns and objectives are derived. In this context, the actors are usually government and non-government organisations. Hence, decision making will involve multiple agencies as well as multiple criteria. A methodology covering the whole decision-making process, from options generation to options selection, and adopting Saaty's Analytical Hierarchy Process as an operational tool is proposed to deal with such multiple-criteria, multipleagency decision situations. The methodology is intended to integrate the consideration of the relevant criteria, the prevailing environmental and policy factors, and the concerns and objectives of the relevant actors into a unifying decision-making process which strives to facilitate enlightened decision making and to enhance learning and interaction. An extensive assessment of the methodology's feasibility, based on a specific technological project within the Iraqi oil industry is included, and indicates that the methodology should be both useful and implementable.

The planning and management of health for development:a model for Zimbabwe

In this thesis, I view the historical background of Zimbabwe to show the patterns of traditional life that existed prior to settlerism. The form, nature, pace and impact of settlerism and colonialism up to the time of independence are also discussed to show how they affected the health of the population and the pace of development of the country. The political, social and economic underdevelopment of the African people that occurred in Zimbabwe prior to independence was a result of deliberate, politically motivated and controlled policy initiatives. These led to inequatable, inadequate, inappropriate and inaccessible health care provision. It is submitted that since it was the politics that determined the pace of underdevelopment, it must be the politics that must be at the forefront of the development strategy adopted. In the face of the amed conflict that existed in Zimbabwe, existing frameworks of analyses are shown to be inadequate for planning purposes because of their inability to provide indications about the stability of future outcomes. The Metagame technique of analysis of options is proposed as a methology that can be applied in such situations. It rejects deterministic predicative models as misleading and advocates an interactive model based on objective and subjective valuation of human behaviour. In conclusion, the search for stable outcomes rather than optimal and best solutions strategies is advocated in decision making in organisations of all sizes.

Industrial new product planning:a study of the sources of new product ideas and the development of new product proposals in the UK computer industry

This thesis presents a study of the sources of new product ideas and the development of new product proposals in an organisation in the UK Computer Industry. The thesis extends the work of von Hippel by showing how the phenomenon which he describes as "the Customer Active Paradigm for new product idea generation" can be observed to operate in this Industry. Furthermore, this thesis contrasts his Customer Active Paradigm with the more usually encountered Manufacturer Active Paradigm. In a second area, the thesis draws a number of conclusions relating to methods of market research, confirming existing observations and demonstrating the suitability of flexible interview strategies in certain circumstances. The thesis goes on to demonstrate the importance of free information flow within the organisation, making it more likely that sought and unsought opportunities can be exploited. It is shown that formal information flows and documents are a necessary but not sufficient means of influencing the formation of the organisation's dominant ideas on new product areas. The findings also link the work of Tushman and Katz on the role of "Gatekeepers" with the work of von Hippel by showing that the role of gatekeeper is particularly appropriate and useful to an organisation changing from Customer Active to Manufacturer Active methods of idea generation. Finally, the thesis provides conclusions relating to the exploitation of specific new product opportunities facing the sponsoring organisation.

An approach to the development of expert systems within production planning and control

The thesis presents an account of an attempt to utilize expert systems within the domain of production planning and control. The use of expert systems was proposed due to the problematical nature of a particular function within British Steel Strip Products' Operations Department: the function of Order Allocation, allocating customer orders to a production week and site. Approaches to tackling problems within production planning and control are reviewed, as are the general capabilities of expert systems. The conclusions drawn are that the domain of production planning and control contains both `soft' and `hard' problems, and that while expert systems appear to be a useful technology for this domain, this usefulness has by no means yet been demonstrated. Also, it is argued that the main stream methodology for developing expert systems is unsuited for the domain. A problem-driven approach is developed and used to tackle the Order Allocation function. The resulting system, UAAMS, contained two expert components. One of these, the scheduling procedure was not fully implemented due to inadequate software. The second expert component, the product routing procedure, was untroubled by such difficulties, though it was unusable on its own; thus a second system was developed. This system, MICRO-X10, duplicated the function of X10, a complex database query routine used daily by Order Allocation. A prototype version of MICRO-X10 proved too slow to be useful but allowed implementation and maintenance issues to be analysed. In conclusion, the usefulness of the problem-driven approach to expert systems development within production planning and control is demonstrated but restrictions imposed by current expert system software are highlighted in that the abilities of such software to cope with `hard' scheduling constructs and also the slow processing speeds of such software can restrict the current usefulness of expert systems within production planning and control.

Strategic development of transport systems: a study of the physical constraints on planning processes

Investment in transport infrastructure can be highly sensitive to uncertainty. The scale and lead time of strategic transport programmes are such that they require continuing policy support and accurate forecasting. Delay, cost escalation and abandonment of projects often result if these conditions are not present. In Part One the physical characteristics of infrastructure are identified as a major constraint on planning processes. The extent to which strategies and techniques acknowledge these constraints is examined. A simple simulation model is developed to evaluate the effects on system development of variations in the scale and lead time of investments. In Part Two, two case studies of strategic infrastructure investment are analysed. The absence of a policy consensus for airport location was an important factor in the delayed resolution of the Third London Airport issue. In London itself, the traffic and environmental effects of major highway investment ultimately resulted in the abandonment of plans to construct urban motorways. In both cases, the infrastructure implications of alternative strategies are reviewed with reference to the problems of uncertainty. In conclusion, the scale of infrastructure investment is considered the most important of the constraints on the processes of transport planning. Adequate appraisal of such constraints may best be achieved by evaluation more closely aligned to policy objectives.

An examinaton of how British local authorities are employing strategic planning and management in their economic development function

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT

The development and application of an interactive material requirements planning model

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Phase I Elements- Planning & Development

Draft of outline for "Phase I Elements - Planning & Development" document on the College of Medicine's LCME Accreditation Process.

Medical Education Progress Report: Section B: Phase I Elements - Planning & Development

Outline of the LCME 3-stage Accreditation Process for Medical Education. Details the stages in the College of Medicine's efforts to initiate the accreditation process. Also details the College of Medicine's Implementation Plan and Proposed Timeline for implementation.

Development of a medium-capacity guideway transit planning guide

Rapid population increase and booming economic growth have caused a significant escalation in car ownership in many cities, leading to additional or, multiple traffic problems on congested roadways. The increase of automobiles is generating a significant amount of congestion and pollution in many cities. It has become necessary to find a solution to the ever worsening traffic problems in our cities. Building more roadways is nearly impossible due to the limitations of right-of-way in cities. Studies have shown that guideway transit could provide effective transportation and could stimulate land development. The Medium-Capacity Guideway Transit (MCGT) is one of the alternatives to solve this problem. The objective of this research was to better understand the characteristics of MCGT systems, to investigate the existing MCGT systems around the world and determine the main factors behind the planning of successful systems, and to develop a MCGT planning guide. The factors utilized in this study were determined and were analyzed using Excel. A MCGT Planning Guide was developed using Microsoft Visual Basic. ^ A MCGT was defined as a transit system whose capacity can carry up to 20,000 passengers per hour per direction (pphpd). The results shown that Light Rail Transit (LRT) is favored when peak hour demand is less than 13,000 pphpd. Automated People Mover (APM) is favored when the peak hour demand is more than 18,000 pphpd. APM systems could save up to three times the waiting time cost compared to that of the LRT. If comfort and convenience are important, then using an APM does make sense. However, if cost is the critical factor, then LRT will make more sense because it is reasonable service at a reasonable price. If travel time and safety (accident/crush) costs were included in calculating life-cycle “total” costs, the capital cost advantage of LRT disappeared and APM could become very competitive. The results also included a range of cost-performance criteria for MCGT systems that help planners, engineers, and decision-makers to select the most feasible system for their respective areas. ^