Ambiguity on the insurer's side: the demand for insurance

Empirical evidence suggests that ambiguity is prevalent in insurance pricing and underwriting, and that often insurers tend to exhibit more ambiguity than the insured individuals (e.g., [23]). Motivated by these findings, we consider a problem of demand for insurance indemnity schedules, where the insurer has ambiguous beliefs about the realizations of the insurable loss, whereas the insured is an expected-utility maximizer. We show that if the ambiguous beliefs of the insurer satisfy a property of compatibility with the non-ambiguous beliefs of the insured, then there exist optimal monotonic indemnity schedules. By virtue of monotonicity, no ex-post moral hazard issues arise at our solutions (e.g., [25]). In addition, in the case where the insurer is either ambiguity-seeking or ambiguity-averse, we show that the problem of determining the optimal indemnity schedule reduces to that of solving an auxiliary problem that is simpler than the original one in that it does not involve ambiguity. Finally, under additional assumptions, we give an explicit characterization of the optimal indemnity schedule for the insured, and we show how our results naturally extend the classical result of Arrow [5] on the optimality of the deductible indemnity schedule.

Ambiguity on the insurer's side: the demand for insurance

Empirical evidence suggests that ambiguity is prevalent in insurance pricing and underwriting, and that often insurers tend to exhibit more ambiguity than the insured individuals (e.g., [23]). Motivated by these findings, we consider a problem of demand for insurance indemnity schedules, where the insurer has ambiguous beliefs about the realizations of the insurable loss, whereas the insured is an expected-utility maximizer. We show that if the ambiguous beliefs of the insurer satisfy a property of compatibility with the non-ambiguous beliefs of the insured, then there exist optimal monotonic indemnity schedules. By virtue of monotonicity, no ex-post moral hazard issues arise at our solutions (e.g., [25]). In addition, in the case where the insurer is either ambiguity-seeking or ambiguity-averse, we show that the problem of determining the optimal indemnity schedule reduces to that of solving an auxiliary problem that is simpler than the original one in that it does not involve ambiguity. Finally, under additional assumptions, we give an explicit characterization of the optimal indemnity schedule for the insured, and we show how our results naturally extend the classical result of Arrow [5] on the optimality of the deductible indemnity schedule.

The Financial Statement Insurance Alternative to Auditor Liability

These articles evaluate using financial statement insurance (FSI) to reduce the frequency and magnitude of audit failure. The FSI concept was pioneered by Josh Ronen, NYU Accounting Professor, who has modeled its economic aspects. My paper examines FSI’s efficacy from policy and legal perspectives. I conclude that while the model is not perfect, it promises considerable advantages over the current model. While some of the existing system’s imperfections are sustained or reappear in different guises, none of the existing imperfections appears to be aggravated and the rest likely are mitigated significantly. So I prescribe a framework to permit companies, on an experimental-basis and with investor approval, to use FSI as an optional alternative to financial statement auditing backed by auditor liability.

Drought Climatology of Indo-Gangetic Region of India Using Remote Sensing and Crop Growth Simulation Models

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Cochin University of Science and Technology

Algal blooms and zooplankton standing crop along the southwest coast of India

Dept. of Marine Biology, Microbiology and Biochemistry,CUSAT

Impact of Climatic Variability and Drought on Crop Yields in Kerala

In the present investigation, the impacts of the variability of the climatic parameters on the yields of major crops grown in the State are analyzed. In particular, the effects of rainfall variability on the water balances of the different regions in the State have been studied. Through this analysis the drought climatology of the region has been studied along with an overview of the climatic shifts involved in individual years. The relationship between weather parameters and crop yields over the State has been analyzed with case studies of two crops- coconut and paddy. Crop-weather models for forecasting coconut and paddy yields have been developed, which could be used for planning purposes

An agroclimatic assessment of the crop growth potential of south india

Usually, under rainfed conditions the growing period exists in the humid months. Hence, for agricultural planning knowledge about the variabilities of the duration of the humid seasons are very much needed. The crucial problem affecting agriculture is the persistency in receiving a specific amount of rainfall during a short period. Agricultural operations and decision making are highly dependent on the probability of receiving given amounts of rainfall; such periods should match the water requirements of different phenological phases of the crops. While prolonged dry periods during sensitive phases are detrimental to their growth and lower the yields, excess of rainfall causes soil erosion and loss of soil nutrients. These factors point to the importance of evaluation of wet and dry spells. In this study the weekly rainfall data have been analysed to estimate the probability of wet and dry periods at all selected stations of each agroclimatic zone and the crop growth potentials of the growing seasons have been analysed. The thesis consists of six Chapters.

Rashtriya Swasthya Bhima Yojana-Comprehensive Health Insurance Scheme (Rsby-Chis) In Kerala: A Study On The Effectiveness And Utilization Of The Scheme With Special Reference To Ernakulam And Wayanad Districts

Health insurance has become a necessity for the common man, next to food, clothing and shelter. The financing of health expense is either catastrophic or sometimes even frequently contracted illnesses, is a major cause of mental agony for the common man. The cost of care may sometimes result in the complete erosion of the family savings or may even lead to indebtedness as many studies on causes of rural indebtedness bear testimony (Jayalakshmi, 2006). A suitable cover by way of health insurance is all that is required to cope with such situations. Health care insurance rightly provides the mechanism for both individuals and families to mitigate the financial burden of medical expenses in the present context. Hence a well designed affordable health insurance policy is the need of the hour.Therefore, it is very significant to study the extent to which the beneficiaries in Kerala make use of the benefits provided by a social health insurance scheme like RSBY-CHIS. Based on the above pertinent points, this study assumes national relevance even though the geographical area of the study is limited to two districts of Kerala. The findings of the study will bring forth valuable inputs on the services availed by the beneficiaries of RSBYCHIS and take appropriate measures to improve the effectiveness of the scheme whereby maximum quality benefit could be availed by the poorest of the poor and develop the scheme as a real dawn of the new era of health for them

Determinants of Consumer Purchase Decisions of Health Insurance in Kerala

This research work was to study the level of awareness of consumers about health insurance concept and market, consumer perceptions about health insurance providers, schemes and various factors that influence buying decision of health insurance. There is need to bring entire age group – high risk and low risk under health insurance cover. Widening the cover of health insurance calls for indepth understanding of consumer thinking and extensive marketing efforts based on that. Hence the study of consumer perceptions and the impact of different contributing factors on consumer purchase decision assume significance to the marketer. Understanding the consumer thinking on health insurance will also be of relevance to governmental/non governmental agencies, as affordable health care to all is a policy objective of the government and new schemes are being launched in this area.

Wireless Sensor Networks for Paddy Field Crop Monitoring Application in Kuttanad

The evolution of wireless sensor network technology has enabled us to develop advanced systems for real time monitoring. In the present scenario wireless sensor networks are increasingly being used for precision agriculture. The advantages of using wireless sensor networks in agriculture are distributed data collection and monitoring, monitor and control of climate, irrigation and nutrient supply. Hence decreasing the cost of production and increasing the efficiency of production.This paper describes the application of wireless sensor network for crop monitoring in the paddy fields of kuttand, a region of Kerala, the southern state of India.

Modelling of global crop production and resulting N2O emissions

Landwirtschaft spielt eine zentrale Rolle im Erdsystem. Sie trägt durch die Emission von CO2, CH4 und N2O zum Treibhauseffekt bei, kann Bodendegradation und Eutrophierung verursachen, regionale Wasserkreisläufe verändern und wird außerdem stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Da all diese Prozesse durch die zugrunde liegenden Nährstoff- und Wasserflüsse eng miteinander verknüpft sind, sollten sie in einem konsistenten Modellansatz betrachtet werden. Dennoch haben Datenmangel und ungenügendes Prozessverständnis dies bis vor kurzem auf der globalen Skala verhindert. In dieser Arbeit wird die erste Version eines solchen konsistenten globalen Modellansatzes präsentiert, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf der Simulation landwirtschaftlicher Erträge und den resultierenden N2O-Emissionen liegt. Der Grund für diese Schwerpunktsetzung liegt darin, dass die korrekte Abbildung des Pflanzenwachstums eine essentielle Voraussetzung für die Simulation aller anderen Prozesse ist. Des weiteren sind aktuelle und potentielle landwirtschaftliche Erträge wichtige treibende Kräfte für Landnutzungsänderungen und werden stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Den zweiten Schwerpunkt bildet die Abschätzung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen, da bislang kein prozessbasiertes N2O-Modell auf der globalen Skala eingesetzt wurde. Als Grundlage für die globale Modellierung wurde das bestehende Agrarökosystemmodell Daycent gewählt. Neben der Schaffung der Simulationsumgebung wurden zunächst die benötigten globalen Datensätze für Bodenparameter, Klima und landwirtschaftliche Bewirtschaftung zusammengestellt. Da für Pflanzzeitpunkte bislang keine globale Datenbasis zur Verfügung steht, und diese sich mit dem Klimawandel ändern werden, wurde eine Routine zur Berechnung von Pflanzzeitpunkten entwickelt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine gute Übereinstimmung mit Anbaukalendern der FAO, die für einige Feldfrüchte und Länder verfügbar sind. Danach wurde das Daycent-Modell für die Ertragsberechnung von Weizen, Reis, Mais, Soja, Hirse, Hülsenfrüchten, Kartoffel, Cassava und Baumwolle parametrisiert und kalibriert. Die Simulationsergebnisse zeigen, dass Daycent die wichtigsten Klima-, Boden- und Bewirtschaftungseffekte auf die Ertragsbildung korrekt abbildet. Berechnete Länderdurchschnitte stimmen gut mit Daten der FAO überein (R2 = 0.66 für Weizen, Reis und Mais; R2 = 0.32 für Soja), und räumliche Ertragsmuster entsprechen weitgehend der beobachteten Verteilung von Feldfrüchten und subnationalen Statistiken. Vor der Modellierung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell stand eine statistische Analyse von N2O-und NO-Emissionsmessungen aus natürlichen und landwirtschaftlichen Ökosystemen. Die als signifikant identifizierten Parameter für N2O (Düngemenge, Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Textur, Feldfrucht, Düngersorte) und NO (Düngemenge, Bodenstickstoffgehalt, Klima) entsprechen weitgehend den Ergebnissen einer früheren Analyse. Für Emissionen aus Böden unter natürlicher Vegetation, für die es bislang keine solche statistische Untersuchung gab, haben Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Lagerungsdichte, Drainierung und Vegetationstyp einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die N2O-Emissionen, während NO-Emissionen signifikant von Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt und Vegetationstyp abhängen. Basierend auf den daraus entwickelten statistischen Modellen betragen die globalen Emissionen aus Ackerböden 3.3 Tg N/y für N2O, und 1.4 Tg N/y für NO. Solche statistischen Modelle sind nützlich, um Abschätzungen und Unsicherheitsbereiche von N2O- und NO-Emissionen basierend auf einer Vielzahl von Messungen zu berechnen. Die Dynamik des Bodenstickstoffs, insbesondere beeinflusst durch Pflanzenwachstum, Klimawandel und Landnutzungsänderung, kann allerdings nur durch die Anwendung von prozessorientierten Modellen berücksichtigt werden. Zur Modellierung von N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell wurde zunächst dessen Spurengasmodul durch eine detailliertere Berechnung von Nitrifikation und Denitrifikation und die Berücksichtigung von Frost-Auftau-Emissionen weiterentwickelt. Diese überarbeitete Modellversion wurde dann an N2O-Emissionsmessungen unter verschiedenen Klimaten und Feldfrüchten getestet. Sowohl die Dynamik als auch die Gesamtsummen der N2O-Emissionen werden befriedigend abgebildet, wobei die Modelleffizienz für monatliche Mittelwerte zwischen 0.1 und 0.66 für die meisten Standorte liegt. Basierend auf der überarbeiteten Modellversion wurden die N2O-Emissionen für die zuvor parametrisierten Feldfrüchte berechnet. Emissionsraten und feldfruchtspezifische Unterschiede stimmen weitgehend mit Literaturangaben überein. Düngemittelinduzierte Emissionen, die momentan vom IPCC mit 1.25 +/- 1% der eingesetzten Düngemenge abgeschätzt werden, reichen von 0.77% (Reis) bis 2.76% (Mais). Die Summe der berechneten Emissionen aus landwirtschaftlichen Böden beträgt für die Mitte der 1990er Jahre 2.1 Tg N2O-N/y, was mit den Abschätzungen aus anderen Studien übereinstimmt.

Destructive and non-destructive measurements of residual crop residue and phosphorus effects on growth and composition of herbaceous fallow species in the Sahel

Little is known about the residual effects of crop residue (CR) and phosphorus (P) application on the fallow vegetation following repeated cultivation of pearl millet [Pennisetum glaucum (L.) R. Br.] in the Sahel. The objective of this study, therefore, was (i) to measure residual effects of CR, mulched at annual rates of 0, 500, 1000 and 2000 kg CR ha^-1, broadcast P at 0 and 13 kg P ha^-1 and P placement at 0, 1, 3, 5 and 7 kg P ha^-1 on the herbaceous dry matter (HDM) 2 years after the end of the experiment and (ii) to test a remote sensing method for the quantitative estimation of HDM. Compared with unmulched plots, a doubling of HDM was measured in plots that had received at least 500 kg CR ha^-1. Previous broadcast P application led to HDM increases of 14% compared with unfertilised control plots, whereas no residual effects of P placement were detected. Crop residue and P treatments caused significant shifts in flora composition. Digital analysis of colour photographs taken of the fallow vegetation and the bare soil revealed that the number of normalised green band pixels averaged per plot was highly correlated with HDM (r=0.86) and that red band pixels were related to differences in soil surface crusting. Given the traditional use of fallow vegetation as fodder, the results strongly suggest that for the integrated farming systems of the West African Sahel, residual effects of soil amendments on the fallow vegetation should be included in any comprehensive analysis of treatment effects on the agro-pastoral system.

Efficient phosphorus application strategies for increased crop production in sub-Saharan West Africa

Comparable data are lacking from the range of environments found in sub-Saharan West Africa to draw more general conclusions about the relative merits of locally available rockphosphate (RockP) in alleviating phosphorus (P) constraints to crop growth. To fill this gap, a multi-factorial field experiment was conducted over 4 years at eight locations in Niger, Burkina Faso and Togo. These ranged in annual rainfall from 510 to 1300 mm. Crops grown were pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) and maize (Zea mays L.) either continuously or in rotation with cowpea (Vigna unguiculata Walp.) and groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.). Crops were subjected to six P fertiliser treatments comprising RockP and soluble P at different rates and combined with 0 and 60 kg N ha^-1. For legumes, time trend analyses showed P-induced total dry matter (TDM) increases between 28 and 72% only with groundnut. Similarly, rotation-induced raises in cereal TDM compared to cereal monoculture were only observed with groundnut. For cereals, at the same rate of application, RockP was comparable to single superphosphate (SSP) only at two millet sites with topsoil pH-KCl <4.2 and annual average rainfall >600 mm. Across the eight sites NPK placement at 0.4 g P per hill raised average cereal yields between 26 and 220%. This was confirmed in 119 on-farm trials revealing P placement as a promising strategy to overcome P deficiency as the regionally most growth limiting nutrient constraint to cereals.

Multi-site time-trend analysis of soil fertility management effects on crop production in sub-Saharan West Africa

Soil fertility constraints to crop production have been recognized widely as a major obstacle to food security and agro-ecosystem sustainability in sub-Saharan West Africa. As such, they have led to a multitude of research projects and policy debates on how best they should be overcome. Conclusions, based on long-term multi-site experiments, are lacking with respect to a regional assessment of phosphorus and nitrogen fertilizer effects, surface mulched crop residues, and legume rotations on total dry matter of cereals in this region. A mixed model time-trend analysis was used to investigate the effects of four nitrogen and phosphorus rates, annually applied crop residue dry matter at 500 and 2000 kg ha^-1, and cereal-legume rotation versus continuous cereal cropping on the total dry matter of cereals and legumes. The multi-factorial experiment was conducted over four years at eight locations, with annual rainfall ranging from 510 to 1300 mm, in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Togo. With the exception of phosphorus, treatment effects on legume growth were marginal. At most locations, except for typical Sudanian sites with very low base saturation and high rainfall, phosphorus effects on cereal total dry matter were much lower with rock phosphate than with soluble phosphorus, unless the rock phosphate was combined with an annual seed-placement of 4 kg ha^-1 phosphorus. Across all other treatments, nitrogen effects were negligible at 500 mm annual rainfall but at 900 mm, the highest nitrogen rate led to total dry matter increases of up to 77% and, at 1300 mm, to 183%. Mulch-induced increases in cereal total dry matter were larger with lower base saturation, reaching 45% on typical acid sandy Sahelian soils. Legume rotation effects tended to increase over time but were strongly species-dependent.

Uncover the Concealed Link: Gender & Ethnicity-Divided Local Knowledge on the Agro-Ecosystem of a Forest Margin

This research is a study about knowledge interface that aims to analyse knowledge discontinuities, the dynamic and emergent characters of struggles and interactions within gender system and ethnicity differences. The cacao boom phenomenon in Central Sulawesi is the main context for a changing of social relations of production, especially when the mode of production has shifted or is still underway from subsistence to petty commodity production. This agrarian change is not only about a change of relationship and practice, but, as my previous research has shown, also about the shift of knowledge domination, because knowledge construes social practice in a dialectical process. Agroecological knowledge is accumulated through interaction, practice and experience. At the same time the knowledge gained from new practices and experiences changes mode of interaction, so such processes provide the arena where an interface of knowledge is manifested. In the process of agro-ecological knowledge interface, gender and ethnic group interactions materialise in the decision-making of production and resource allocation at the household and community level. At this point, power/knowledge is interplayed to gain authority in decision-making. When authority dominates, power encounters resistance, whereas the dominant power and its resistance are aimed to ensure socio-economic security. Eventually, the process of struggle can be identified through the pattern of resource utilisation as a realisation of production decision-making. Such processes are varied from one community to another, and therefore, it shows uniqueness and commonalities, especially when it is placed in a context of shifting mode of production. The focus is placed on actors: men and women in their institutional and cultural setting, including the role of development agents. The inquiry is informed by 4 major questions: 1) How do women and men acquire, disseminate, and utilise their agro ecological knowledge, specifically in rice farming as a subsistence commodity, as well as in cacao farming as a petty commodity? How and why do such mechanisms construct different knowledge domains between two genders? How does the knowledge mechanism apply in different ethnics? What are the implications for gender and ethnicity based relation of production? ; 2) Using the concept of valued knowledge in a shifting mode of production context: is there any knowledge that dominates others? How does the process of domination occur and why? Is there any form of struggle, strategies, negotiation, and compromise over this domination? How do these processes take place at a household as well as community level? How does it relate to production decision-making? ; 3) Putting the previous questions in two communities with a different point of arrival on a path of agricultural commercialisation, how do the processes of struggle vary? What are the bases of the commonalities and peculiarities in both communities?; 4) How the decisions of production affect rice field - cacao plantation - forest utilisation in the two villages? How does that triangle of resource use reflect the constellation of local knowledge in those two communities? What is the implication of this knowledge constellation for the cacao-rice-forest agroecosystem in the forest margin area? Employing a qualitative approach as the main method of inquiry, indepth and dialogic interviews, participant observer role, and document review are used to gather information. A small survey and children’s writing competition are supplementary to this data collection method. The later two methods are aimed to give wider information on household decision making and perception toward the forest. It was found that local knowledge, particularly knowledge pertaining to rice-forest-cacao agroecology is divided according to gender and ethnicity. This constellation places a process of decision-making as ‘the arena of interface’ between feminine and masculine knowledge, as well as between dominant and less dominant ethnic groups. Transition from subsistence to a commercial mode of production is a context that frames a process where knowledge about cacao commodity is valued higher than rice. Market mechanism, as an external power, defines valued knowledge. Valued knowledge defines the dominant knowledge holder, and decision. Therefore, cacao cultivation becomes a dominant practice. Its existence sacrifices the presence of rice field and the forest. Knowledge about rice production and forest ecosystem exist, but is less valued. So it is unable to challenge the domination of cacao. Various forms of struggles - within gender an ethnicity context - to resist cacao domination are an expression of unequal knowledge possession. Knowledge inequality implies to unequal access to withdraw benefit from market valued crop. When unequal knowledge fails to construct a negotiated field or struggles fail to reveal ‘marginal’ decision, e.g. intensification instead of cacao expansion to the forest, interface only produces divergence. Gender and ethnicity divided knowledge is unabridged, since negotiation is unable to produce new knowledge that accommodates both interests. Rice is loaded by ecological interest to conserve the forest, while cacao is driven by economic interest to increase welfare status. The implication of this unmediated dominant knowledge of cacao production is the construction of access; access to the forest, mainly to withdraw its economic benefit by eliminating its ecological benefit. Then, access to cacao as the social relationship of production to acquire cacao knowledge; lastly, access to defend sustainable benefit from cacao by expansion. ‘Socio-economic Security’ is defined by Access. The convergence of rice and cacao knowledge, however, should be made possible across gender and ethnicity, not only for the sake of forest conservation as the insurance of ecological security, but also for community’s socio-economic security. The convergence might be found in a range of alternative ways to conduct cacao sustainable production, from agroforestry system to intensification.