Land and labor reallocation in pre-modern Japan : a case of a northeastern village in 1720-1870

In agricultural societies, adjusting land and labor according to changes of labor endowment that result from family life cycle events is premised on making full use of resources for each farming household and for the economy as a whole. This paper examines how and how well households in pre-modern Japan reallocated land and labor, using a population register covering 150 years from 1720–1870 for a village in the Tohoku region. We find that households reacted to equalize their production factors; land-scarce households tended to acquire or rent-in land and out-migrate their kin members, while land-abundant households tended to release or rent-out land, in-migrate kin members, or employ non-kin members. Estimates suggest that more than 80% of the surplus or deficit area of land was resolved if the household rented or "sold" land. We discuss a potential underlying mechanism; namely, that the village's collective responsibility for tax payment (murauke) motivated both individual households and the village as a whole to reallocate land and labor for the efficient use of resources.

Impacts of the EU Biofuel Target on Agricultural Markets and Land Use - A Comparative Modelling Assessment

The Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) requires that 20% of the EU's energy needs should come from renewable sources by 2020, and includes a target for the transport sector of 10% from biofuels. This report analyses and discusses the global impacts of this biofuel target on agricultural production, markets and land use, as simulated by three agricultural sector models, AGLINK-COSIMO, ESIM and CAPRI. The impacts identified include higher EU production of ethanol and biodiesel, and of the crops used to produce them, as well as more imports of both biofuels. Trade flows of biofuel feedstocks also change to reflect greater EU demand, including a significant increase in vegetable oil imports. However, as the extra demand is small in world market terms, the impact on world market prices is limited. With the EU biofuel target, global use of land for crop cultivation is higher by 5.2 million hectares. About one quarter is area within the EU, some of which would otherwise have left agriculture.

Carbon allocation in north-western Amazon forests (Colombia)

Los estudios sobre la asignación del carbono en los ecosistemas forestales proporcionan información esencial para la comprensión de las diferencias espaciales y temporales en el ciclo del carbono de tal forma que pueden aportar información a los modelos y, así predecir las posibles respuestas de los bosques a los cambios en el clima. Dentro de este contexto, los bosques Amazónicos desempeñan un papel particularmente importante en el balance global del carbono; no obstante, existen grandes incertidumbres en cuanto a los controles abióticos en las tasas de la producción primaria neta (PPN), la asignación de los productos de la fotosíntesis a los diferentes componentes o compartimentos del ecosistema (aéreo y subterráneo) y, cómo estos componentes de la asignación del carbono responden a eventos climáticos extremos. El objetivo general de esta tesis es analizar los componentes de la asignación del carbono en bosques tropicales maduros sobre suelos contrastantes, que crecen bajo condiciones climáticas similares en dos sitios ubicados en la Amazonia noroccidental (Colombia): el Parque Natural Nacional Amacayacu y la Estación Biológica Zafire. Con este objetivo, realicé mediciones de los componentes de la asignación del carbono (biomasa, productividad primaria neta, y su fraccionamiento) a nivel ecosistémico y de la dinámica forestal (tasas anuales de mortalidad y reclutamiento), a lo largo de ocho años (20042012) en seis parcelas permanentes de 1 hectárea establecidas en cinco tipos de bosques sobre suelos diferentes (arcilloso, franco-arcilloso, franco-arcilloso-arenoso, franco-arenoso y arena-francosa). Toda esta información me permitió abordar preguntas específicas que detallo a continuación. En el Capítulo 2 evalúe la hipótesis de que a medida que aumenta la fertilidad del suelo disminuye la cantidad del carbono asignado a la producción subterránea (raíces finas con diámetro <2 mm). Y para esto, realicé mediciones de la masa y la producción de raíces finas usando dos métodos: (1) el de los cilindros de crecimiento y, (2) el de los cilindros de extracción secuencial. El monitoreo se realizó durante 2.2 años en los bosques con suelos más contrastantes: arcilla y arena-francosa. Encontré diferencias significativas en la masa de raíces finas y su producción entre los bosques y, también con respecto a la profundidad del suelo (010 y 1020 cm). El bosque sobre arena-francosa asignó más carbono a las raíces finas que el bosque sobre arcillas. La producción de raíces finas en el bosque sobre arena-francosa fue dos veces más alta (media ± error estándar = 2.98 ± 0.36 y 3.33 ± 0.69 Mg C ha1 año1, con el método 1 y 2, respectivamente), que para el bosque sobre arcillas, el suelo más fértil (1.51 ± 0.14, método 1, y desde 1.03 ± 0.31 a 1.36 ± 0.23 Mg C ha1 año1, método 2). Del mismo modo, el promedio de la masa de raíces finas fue tres veces mayor en el bosque sobre arena-francosa (5.47 ± 0.17 Mg C ha1) que en el suelo más fértil (de 1.52 ± 0.08 a 1.82 ± 0.09 Mg C ha1). La masa de las raíces finas también mostró un patrón temporal relacionado con la lluvia, mostrando que la producción de raíces finas disminuyó sustancialmente en el período seco del año 2005. Estos resultados sugieren que los recursos del suelo pueden desempeñar un papel importante en los patrones de la asignación del carbono entre los componentes aéreo y subterráneo de los bosques tropicales; y que el suelo no sólo influye en las diferencias en la masa de raíces finas y su producción, sino que también, en conjunto con la lluvia, sobre la estacionalidad de la producción. En el Capítulo 3 estimé y analicé los tres componentes de la asignación del carbono a nivel del ecosistema: la biomasa, la productividad primaria neta PPN, y su fraccionamiento, en los mismos bosques del Capítulo 2 (el bosque sobre arcillas y el bosque sobre arena-francosa). Encontré diferencias significativas en los patrones de la asignación del carbono entre los bosques; el bosque sobre arcillas presentó una mayor biomasa total y aérea, así como una PPN, que el bosque sobre arena-francosa. Sin embargo, la diferencia entre los dos bosques en términos de la productividad primaria neta total fue menor en comparación con las diferencias entre la biomasa total de los bosques, como consecuencia de las diferentes estrategias en la asignación del carbono a los componentes aéreo y subterráneo del bosque. La proporción o fracción de la PPN asignada a la nueva producción de follaje fue relativamente similar entre los dos bosques. Nuestros resultados de los incrementos de la biomasa aérea sugieren una posible compensación entre la asignación del carbono al crecimiento de las raíces finas versus el de la madera, a diferencia de la compensación comúnmente asumida entre la parte aérea y la subterránea en general. A pesar de estas diferencias entre los bosques en términos de los componentes de la asignación del carbono, el índice de área foliar fue relativamente similar entre ellos, lo que sugiere que el índice de área foliar es más un indicador de la PPN total que de la asignación de carbono entre componentes. En el Capítulo 4 evalué la variación espacial y temporal de los componentes de la asignación del carbono y la dinámica forestal de cinco tipos e bosques amazónicos y sus respuestas a fluctuaciones en la precipitación, lo cual es completamente relevante en el ciclo global del carbono y los procesos biogeoquímicos en general. Estas variaciones son así mismo importantes para evaluar los efectos de la sequía o eventos extremos sobre la dinámica natural de los bosques amazónicos. Evalué la variación interanual y la estacionalidad de los componentes de la asignación del carbono y la dinámica forestal durante el periodo 2004−2012, en cinco bosques maduros sobre diferentes suelos (arcilloso, franco-arcilloso, franco-arcilloso-arenoso, franco-arenoso y arena-francosa), todos bajo el mismo régimen local de precipitación en la Amazonia noroccidental (Colombia). Quería examinar sí estos bosques responden de forma similar a las fluctuaciones en la precipitación, tal y como pronostican muchos modelos. Consideré las siguientes preguntas: (i) ¿Existe una correlación entre los componentes de la asignación del carbono y la dinámica forestal con la precipitación? (ii) ¿Existe correlación entre los bosques? (iii) ¿Es el índice de área foliar (LAI) un indicador de las variaciones en la producción aérea o es un reflejo de los cambios en los patrones de la asignación del carbono entre bosques?. En general, la correlación entre los componentes aéreo y subterráneo de la asignación del carbono con la precipitación sugiere que los suelos juegan un papel importante en las diferencias espaciales y temporales de las respuestas de estos bosques a las variaciones en la precipitación. Por un lado, la mayoría de los bosques mostraron que los componentes aéreos de la asignación del carbono son susceptibles a las fluctuaciones en la precipitación; sin embargo, el bosque sobre arena-francosa solamente presentó correlación con la lluvia con el componente subterráneo (raíces finas). Por otra parte, a pesar de que el noroeste Amazónico es considerado sin una estación seca propiamente (definida como <100 mm meses −1), la hojarasca y la masa de raíces finas mostraron una alta variabilidad y estacionalidad, especialmente marcada durante la sequía del 2005. Además, los bosques del grupo de suelos francos mostraron que la hojarasca responde a retrasos en la precipitación, al igual que la masa de raíces finas del bosque sobre arena-francosa. En cuanto a la dinámica forestal, sólo la tasa de mortalidad del bosque sobre arena-francosa estuvo correlacionada con la precipitación (ρ = 0.77, P <0.1). La variabilidad interanual en los incrementos en el tallo y la biomasa de los individuos resalta la importancia de la mortalidad en la variación de los incrementos en la biomasa aérea. Sin embargo, las tasas de mortalidad y las proporciones de individuos muertos por categoría de muerte (en pie, caído de raíz, partido y desaparecido), no mostraron tendencias claras relacionadas con la sequía. Curiosamente, la hojarasca, el incremento en la biomasa aérea y las tasas de reclutamiento mostraron una alta correlación entre los bosques, en particular dentro del grupo de los bosques con suelos francos. Sin embargo, el índice de área foliar estimado para los bosques con suelos más contrastantes (arcilla y arena-francosa), no presentó correlación significativa con la lluvia; no obstante, estuvo muy correlacionado entre bosques; índice de área foliar no reflejó las diferencias en la asignación de los componentes del carbono, y su respuesta a la precipitación en estos bosques. Por último, los bosques estudiados muestran que el noroeste amazónico es susceptible a fenómenos climáticos, contrario a lo propuesto anteriormente debido a la ausencia de una estación seca propiamente dicha. ABSTRACT Studies of carbon allocation in forests provide essential information for understanding spatial and temporal differences in carbon cycling that can inform models and predict possible responses to changes in climate. Amazon forests play a particularly significant role in the global carbon balance, but there are still large uncertainties regarding abiotic controls on the rates of net primary production (NPP) and the allocation of photosynthetic products to different ecosystem components; and how the carbon allocation components of Amazon forests respond to extreme climate events. The overall objective of this thesis is to examine the carbon allocation components in old-growth tropical forests on contrasting soils, and under similar climatic conditions in two sites at the Amacayacu National Natural Park and the Zafire Biological Station, located in the north-western Amazon (Colombia). Measurements of above- and below-ground carbon allocation components (biomass, net primary production, and its partitioning) at the ecosystem level, and dynamics of tree mortality and recruitment were done along eight years (20042012) in six 1-ha plots established in five Amazon forest types on different soils (clay, clay-loam, sandy-clay-loam, sandy-loam and loamy-sand) to address specific questions detailed in the next paragraphs. In Chapter 2, I evaluated the hypothesis that as soil fertility increases the amount of carbon allocated to below-ground production (fine-roots) should decrease. To address this hypothesis the standing crop mass and production of fine-roots (<2 mm) were estimated by two methods: (1) ingrowth cores and, (2) sequential soil coring, during 2.2 years in the most contrasting forests: the clay-soil forest and the loamy-sand forest. We found that the standing crop fine-root mass and its production were significantly different between forests and also between soil depths (0–10 and 10–20 cm). The loamysand forest allocated more carbon to fine-roots than the clay-soil forest, with fine-root production in the loamy-sand forest twice (mean ± standard error = 2.98 ± 0.36 and 3.33 ± 0.69 Mg C ha −1 yr −1, method 1 and 2, respectively) as much as for the more fertile claysoil forest (1.51 ± 0.14, method 1, and from 1.03 ± 0.31 to 1.36 ± 0.23 Mg C ha −1 yr −1, method 2). Similarly, the average of standing crop fine-root mass was three times higher in the loamy-sand forest (5.47 ± 0.17 Mg C ha1) than in the more fertile soil (from 1.52 ± 0.08 a 1.82 ± 0.09 Mg C ha1). The standing crop fine-root mass also showed a temporal pattern related to rainfall, with the production of fine-roots decreasing substantially in the dry period of the year 2005. These results suggest that soil resources may play an important role in patterns of carbon allocation of below-ground components, not only driven the differences in the biomass and its production, but also in the time when it is produced. In Chapter 3, I assessed the three components of stand-level carbon allocation (biomass, NPP, and its partitioning) for the same forests evaluated in Chapter 2 (clay-soil forest and loamy-sand forest). We found differences in carbon allocation patterns between these two forests, showing that the forest on clay-soil had a higher aboveground and total biomass as well as a higher above-ground NPP than the loamy-sand forest. However, differences between the two types of forests in terms of stand-level NPP were smaller, as a consequence of different strategies in the carbon allocation of above- and below-ground components. The proportional allocation of NPP to new foliage production was relatively similar between the two forests. Our results of aboveground biomass increments and fine-root production suggest a possible trade-off between carbon allocation to fine-roots versus wood growth (as it has been reported by other authors), as opposed to the most commonly assumed trade-off between total above- and below-ground production. Despite these differences among forests in terms of carbon allocation components, the leaf area index showed differences between forests like total NPP, suggesting that the leaf area index is more indicative of total NPP than carbon allocation. In Chapter 4, I evaluated the spatial and temporal variation of carbon allocation components and forest dynamics of Amazon forests as well as their responses to climatic fluctuations. I evaluated the intra- and inter-annual variation of carbon allocation components and forest dynamics during the period 2004−2012 in five forests on different soils (clay, clay-loam, sandy-clay-loam, sandy-loam and loamy-sand), but growing under the same local precipitation regime in north-western Amazonia (Colombia). We were interested in examining if these forests respond similarly to rainfall fluctuations as many models predict, considering the following questions: (i) Is there a correlation in carbon allocation components and forest dynamics with precipitation? (ii) Is there a correlation among forests? (iii) Are temporal responses in leaf area index (LAI) indicative of variations of above-ground production or a reflection of changes in carbon allocation patterns among forests?. Overall, the correlation of above- and below-ground carbon allocation components with rainfall suggests that soils play an important role in the spatial and temporal differences of responses of these forests to rainfall fluctuations. On the one hand, most forests showed that the above-ground components are susceptible to rainfall fluctuations; however, there was a forest on loamy-sand that only showed a correlation with the below-ground component (fine-roots). On the other hand, despite the fact that north-western Amazonia is considered without a conspicuous dry season (defined as <100 mm month−1), litterfall and fine-root mass showed high seasonality and variability, particularly marked during the drought of 2005. Additionally, forests of the loam-soil group showed that litterfall respond to time-lags in rainfall as well as and the fine-root mass of the loamy-sand forest. With regard to forest dynamics, only the mortality rate of the loamy-sand forest was significantly correlated with rainfall (77%). The observed inter-annual variability of stem and biomass increments of individuals highlighted the importance of the mortality in the above-ground biomass increment. However, mortality rates and death type proportion did not show clear trends related to droughts. Interestingly, litterfall, above-ground biomass increment and recruitment rates of forests showed high correlation among forests, particularly within the loam-soil forests group. Nonetheless, LAI measured in the most contrasting forests (clay-soil and loamysand) was poorly correlated with rainfall but highly correlated between forests; LAI did not reflect the differences in the carbon allocation components, and their response to rainfall on these forests. Finally, the forests studied highlight that north-western Amazon forests are also susceptible to climate fluctuations, contrary to what has been proposed previously due to their lack of a pronounced dry season.

Localización óptima de una planta de bioetanol a partir de tubérculos de pataca (Helianthus tuberosus l.) en la Cuenca del Duero

El objetivo del presente trabajo es determinar la localización óptima de una planta de producción de 30.000 m3/año de bioetanol a partir de tubérculos de pataca (Helianthus tuberosus L.) cultivada en regadío, en tierras de barbecho de la Cuenca Hidrográfica del Duero (CH Duero). Inicialmente se elaboró, a partir de datos bibliográficos, un modelo de producción de pataca en base a una ecuación de regresión que relaciona datos experimentales de rendimientos de variedades tardías con variables agroclimáticas. Así se obtuvo una función de producción basada en la cantidad de agua disponible (precipitación efectiva + dosis de riego) y en la radiación global acumulada en el periodo brotación‐senescencia del cultivo. A continuación se estima la superficie potencial de cultivo de pataca en la CH Duero a partir de la superficie arable en regadío cartografiada por el Sistema de Ocupación del Suelo (SIOSE), a la cual se le aplican, en base a los requerimientos del cultivo, unas restricciones climáticas, edafológicas, topográficas y logísticas mediante el uso de Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG). La proporción de superficie de regadío restringida se cuantifica a escala municipal con el fin de calcular la superficie de barbecho en regadío apta para el cultivo de pataca. A partir de las bases de datos georreferenciadas de precipitación, radiación global, y la dotación de agua para el riego de cultivos no específicos establecida en el Plan Hidrológico de la Cuenca del Duero a escala comarcal, se estimó la producción potencial de tubérculos de pataca sobre la superficie de barbecho de regadío según el modelo de producción elaborado. Así, en las 53.360 ha de barbecho en regadío aptas para el cultivo de pataca se podrían producir 3,8 Mt de tubérculos al año (80 % de humedad) (761.156 t ms/año) de los que se podría obtener 304.462 m3/año de bioetanol, considerando un rendimiento en la transformación de 12,5 kg mf/l de etanol. Se estiman los costes de las labores de cultivo de pataca así como los costes de la logística de suministro a una planta de transformación considerando una distancia media de transporte de 25 km, en base a las hojas de cálculo de utilización de aperos y maquinaria agrícola oficiales del Ministerio de Agricultura, Alimentación y Medio Ambiente (MAGRAMA). Considerando el balance de costes asociados a la producción de bioetanol (costes de transformación, distribución y transporte del producto, costes estructurales de la planta, ahorro de costes por la utilización de las vinazas generadas en el proceso como fertilizante y un beneficio industrial), se ha estimado que el coste de producción de bioetanol a partir de tubérculos de pataca asciende a 61,03 c€/l. Se calculan los beneficios fiscales para el Estado por el cultivo de 5.522 ha de pataca que suministren la materia prima necesaria para una planta de bioetanol de 30.000 m3/año, en concepto de cotizaciones a la Seguridad Social de los trabajadores, impuestos sobre el valor añadido de los productos consumidos, impuesto sobre sociedades y ahorro de las prestaciones por desempleo. Se obtuvieron unos beneficios fiscales de 10,25 c€ por litro de bioetanol producido. El coste de producción de bioetanol depende del rendimiento de tubérculos por hectárea y de la distancia de transporte desde las zonas de producción de la materia prima hasta la planta. Se calculó la distancia máxima de transporte para que el precio de coste del bioetanol producido sea competitivo con el precio de mercado del bioetanol. Como resultado se determinó que el precio del bioetanol (incluido un beneficio industrial del 15%) de la planta sería igual o inferior al precio de venta en el mercado (66,35 c€/l) con una distancia máxima de transporte de 25 km y un rendimiento mínimo del cultivo de 60,1 t mf/ha. Una vez conocido el área de influencia de la planta según la distancia de transporte máxima, se determinó la localización óptima de la planta de producción de bioetanol mediante un proceso de ubicación‐asignación realizado con SIG. Para ello se analizan los puntos candidatos a la ubicación de la planta según el cumplimiento de unos requerimientos técnicos establecidos (distancia a fuentes de suministro eléctrico y de recursos hídricos, distancia a estaciones de ferrocarril, distancia a núcleos urbanos y existencia de Espacios Naturales Protegidos) que minimizan la distancia de transporte maximizando la cantidad de biomasa disponible según la producción potencial estimada anteriormente. Por último, la superficie destinada al cultivo de pataca en el área de influencia de la planta se determina en base a un patrón de distribución del cultivo alrededor de una agroindustria. Dicho patrón se ha obtenido a partir del análisis del grado de ocupación del cultivo de la remolacha en función de la distancia de transporte a la planta azucarera de Miranda de Ebro (Burgos). El patrón resultante muestra que la relación entre el grado de ocupación del suelo por el cultivo y la distancia de transporte a la planta siguen una ecuación logística. La localización óptima que se ha obtenido mediante la metodología descrita se ubica en el municipio leonés de El Burgo Ranero, donde la producción potencial de tubérculos de pataca en la superficie de barbecho situada en un radio de acción de 25 km es de 375.665 t mf/año, superando las 375.000 t mf requeridas anualmente por la planta de bioetanol. ABSTRACT Jerusalem artichoke (Helianthus tuberosus L.) is a harsh crop with a high potential for biomass production. Its main use is related to bioethanol production from the carbohydrates, inulin mainly, accumulated in its tubers at the end of the crop cycle. The aerial biomass could be used as solid biofuel to provide energy to the bioethanol production process. Therefore, Jerusalem artichoke is a promising crop as feedstock for biofuel production in order to achieve the biofuels consumption objectives established by the Government of Spain (PER 2011‐2020 and RDL 4/2013) and the European Union (Directive 2009/28/EC). This work aims at the determination of the optimal location for a 30,000 m3/year bioethanol production plant from Jerusalem artichoke tubers in the Duero river basin. With this purpose, a crop production model was developed by means of a regression equation that relates experimental yield data of late Jerusalem artichoke varieties with pedo‐climatic parameters from a bibliographic data matrix. The resulting crop production model was based on the crop water availability (including effective rainfall and irrigation water supplied) and on global radiation accumulated in the crop emergence‐senescence period. The crop potential cultivation area for Jerusalem artichoke in the Duero basin was estimated using the georeferenced irrigated arable land from the “Sistema de Ocupación del Suelo” (SIOSE) of Spain. Climatic, soil, slope and logistic restrictions were considered by means of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The limited potential growing area was then applied to a municipality scale in order to calculate the amount of fallow land suitable for Jerusalem artichoke production. Rainfall and global radiation georeferenced layers as well as data of irrigation water supply for crop production (established within the Duero Hydrologic Plan) were use to estimate the potential production of Jerusalem artichoke tubers in the suitable fallow land according to the crop production model. As a result of this estimation, there are 53,360 ha of fallow land suitable for Jerusalem artichoke production in the Duero basin, where 3.8 M t fm/year could be produced. Considering a bioethanol processing yield of 12.5 kg mf per liter of bioethanol, the above mentioned tuber potential production could be processed in 304,462 m3/year of bioethanol. The Jerusalem crop production costs and the logistic supply costs (considering an average transport distance of 25 km) were estimated according to official agricultural machinery cost calculation sheets of the Minister of Agriculture of Spain (MAGRAMA). The bioethanol production cost from Jerusalem artichoke tubers was calculated considering bioethanol processing, transport and structural costs, industrial profits as well as plant cost savings from the use of vinasses as fertilizer. The resulting bioetanol production cost from Jerusalem artichoke tubers was 61.03 c€/l. Additionally, revenues for the state coffers regarding Social Security contributions, added value taxes of consumed raw materials, corporation tax and unemployment benefit savings due to the cultivation of 5,522 ha of Jerusalem artichoke for the 30.000 m3/year bioethanol plant supply were calculated. The calculated revenues amounted to 10.25 c€/l. Bioethanol production cost and consequently the bioethanol plant economic viability are strongly related to the crop yield as well as to road transport distance from feedstock production areas to the processing plant. The previously estimated bioethanol production cost was compared to the bioethanol market price in order to determine the maximum supply transport distance and the minimum crop yield to reach the bioethanol plant economic viability. The results showed that the proposed plant would be economically viable at a maximum transport distance of 25 km and at a crop yield not less than 60.1 t fm/ha. By means of a GIS location‐allocation analysis, the optimal bioethanol plant location was determined. Suitable candidates were detected according to several plant technical requirements (distance to power and water supply sources, distance to freight station, and distance to urban areas and to Natural Protected Areas). The optimal bioethanol plant location must minimize the supply transport distance whereas it maximizes the amount of available biomass according to the previously estimated biomass potential production. Lastly, the agricultural area around the bioethanol plant finally dedicated to Jerusalem artichoke cultivation was planned according to a crop distribution model. The crop distribution model was established from the analysis of the relation between the sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.) cropping area and the road transport distance from the sugar processing plant of Miranda de Ebro (Burgos, North of Spain). The optimal location was situated in the municipality of ‘El Burgo Ranero’ in the province of León. The potential production of Jerusalem artichoke tubers in the fallow land within 25 km distance from the plant location was 375,665 t fm/year, which exceeds the amount of biomass yearly required by the bioethanol plant.

Probabilistic analysis of water availability for agriculture and associated crop net margins.

Rising water demands are difficult to meet in many regions of the world. In consequence, under meteorological adverse conditions, big economic losses in agriculture can take place. This paper aims to analyze the variability of water shortage in an irrigation district and the effect on farmer?s income. A probabilistic analysis of water availability for agriculture in the irrigation district is performed, through a supply-system simulation approach, considering stochastically generated series of stream-flows. Net margins associated to crop production are as well estimated depending on final water allocations. Net margins are calculated considering either single-crop farming, either a polyculture system. In a polyculture system, crop distribution and water redistribution are calculated through an optimization approach using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) for several scenarios of irrigation water availability. Expected net margins are obtained by crop and for the optimal crop and water distribution. The maximum expected margins are obtained for the optimal crop combination, followed by the alfalfa monoculture, maize, rice, wheat and finally barley. Water is distributed as follows, from biggest to smallest allocation: rice, alfalfa, maize, wheat and barley.

Implications of agricultural production, policy and land use changes on water resource assessment

Una gestión más eficiente y equitativa del agua a escala de cuenca no se puede centrar exclusivamente en el recurso hídrico en sí, sino también en otras políticas y disciplinas científicas. Existe un consenso creciente de que, además de la consideración de las cambiantes condiciones climáticas, es necesaria una integración de ámbitos de investigación tales como la agronomía, planificación del territorio y ciencias políticas y económicas a fin de satisfacer de manera sostenible las demandas de agua por parte de la sociedad y del medio natural. La Política Agrícola Común (PAC) es el principal motor de cambio en las tendencias de paisajes rurales y sistemas agrícolas, pero el deterioro del medio ambiente es ahora una de las principales preocupaciones. Uno de los cambios más relevantes se ha producido con la expansión e intensificación del olivar en España, principalmente con nuevas zonas de regadío o la conversión de olivares de secano a sistemas en regadío. Por otra parte, el cambio de las condiciones climáticas podría ejercer un papel importante en las tendencias negativas de las aportaciones a los ríos, pero no queda claro el papel que podrían estar jugando los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las tendencias negativas de caudal observadas. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo mejorar el conocimiento de los efectos de la producción agrícola, política agraria y cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las condiciones de calidad del agua, respuesta hidrológica y apropiación del agua por parte de la sociedad. En primer lugar, el estudio determina las tendencias existentes de nitratos y sólidos en suspensión en las aguas superficiales de la cuenca del río Guadalquivir durante el periodo de 1998 a 2009. Desde una perspectiva de política agraria, la investigación trata de evaluar mediante un análisis de datos de panel las principales variables, incluyendo la reforma de la PAC de 2003, que están teniendo una influencia en ambos indicadores de calidad. En segundo lugar, la apropiación del agua y el nivel de contaminación por nitratos debido a la producción del aceite de oliva en España se determinan con una evaluación de la huella hídrica (HH), teniendo en cuenta una variabilidad espacial y temporal a largo de las provincias españolas y entre 1997 y 2008. Por último, la tesis analiza los efectos de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las tendencias negativas observadas en la zona alta del Turia, cabecera de la cuenca del río Júcar, durante el periodo 1973-2008 mediante una modelización ecohidrológica. En la cuenca del Guadalquivir cerca del 20% de las estaciones de monitoreo muestran tendencias significativas, lineales o cuadráticas, para cada indicador de calidad de agua. La mayoría de las tendencias significativas en nitratos están aumentando, y la mayoría de tendencias cuadráticas muestran un patrón en forma de U. Los modelos de regresión de datos de panel muestran que las variables más importantes que empeoran ambos indicadores de calidad del agua son la intensificación de biomasa y las exportaciones de ambos indicadores de calidad procedentes de aguas arriba. En regiones en las que el abandono agrícola y/o desintensificación han tenido lugar han mejorado las condiciones de calidad del agua. Para los nitratos, el desacoplamiento de las subvenciones a la agricultura y la reducción de la cuantía de las subvenciones a tierras de regadío subyacen en la reducción observada de la concentración de nitratos. Las medidas de modernización de regadíos y el establecimiento de zonas vulnerables a nitratos reducen la concentración en subcuencas que muestran una tendencia creciente de nitratos. Sin embargo, el efecto de las exportaciones de nitratos procedente de aguas arriba, la intensificación de la biomasa y los precios de los cultivos presentan un mayor peso, explicando la tendencia creciente observada de nitratos. Para los sólidos en suspensión, no queda de forma evidente si el proceso de desacoplamiento ha influido negativa o positivamente. Sin embargo, los mayores valores de las ayudas agrarias aún ligadas a la producción, en particular en zonas de regadío, conllevan un aumento de las tasas de erosión. Aunque la cuenca del Guadalquivir ha aumentado la producción agrícola y la eficiencia del uso del agua, el problema de las altas tasas de erosión aún no ha sido mitigado adecuadamente. El estudio de la huella hídrica (HH) revela que en 1 L de aceite de oliva español más del 99,5% de la HH está relacionado con la producción de la aceituna, mientras que menos del 0,5% se debe a otros componentes, es decir, a la botella, tapón y etiqueta. Durante el período estudiado, la HH verde en secano y en regadío representa alrededor del 72% y 12%, respectivamente, del total de la HH. Las HHs azul y gris representan 6% y 10%, respectivamente. La producción de aceitunas se concentra en regiones con una HH menor por unidad de producto. La producción de aceite de oliva ha aumentado su productividad del agua durante 1997-2008, incentivado por los crecientes precios del aceite, como también lo ha hecho la cantidad de exportaciones de agua virtual. De hecho, las mayores zonas productoras presentan una eficiencia alta del uso y de productividad del agua, así como un menor potencial de contaminación por nitratos. Pero en estas zonas se ve a la vez reflejado un aumento de presión sobre los recursos hídricos locales. El aumento de extracciones de agua subterránea relacionadas con las exportaciones de aceite de oliva podría añadir una mayor presión a la ya estresada cuenca del Guadalquivir, mostrando la necesidad de equilibrar las fuerzas del mercado con los recursos locales disponibles. Los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal juegan un papel importante en el balance del agua de la cuenca alta del Turia, pero no son el principal motor que sustenta la reducción observada de caudal. El aumento de la temperatura es el principal factor que explica las mayores tasas de evapotranspiración y la reducción de caudales. Sin embargo, los cambios de uso de suelo y el cambio climático han tenido un efecto compensatorio en la respuesta hidrológica. Por un lado, el caudal se ha visto afectado negativamente por el aumento de la temperatura, mientras que los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal han compensado positivamente con una reducción de las tasas de evapotranspiración, gracias a los procesos de disminución de la densidad de matorral y de degradación forestal. El estudio proporciona una visión que fortalece la interdisciplinariedad entre la planificación hidrológica y territorial, destacando la necesidad de incluir las implicaciones de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal en futuros planes hidrológicos. Estos hallazgos son valiosos para la gestión de la cuenca del río Turia, y el enfoque empleado es útil para la determinación del peso de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal en la respuesta hidrológica en otras regiones. ABSTRACT Achieving a more efficient and equitable water management at catchment scale does not only rely on the water resource itself, but also on other policies and scientific knowledge. There is a growing consensus that, in addition to consideration of changing climate conditions, integration with research areas such as agronomy, land use planning and economics and political science is required to meet sustainably the societal and environmental water demands. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is a main driver for trends in rural landscapes and agricultural systems, but environmental deterioration is now a principal concern. One of the most relevant changes has occurred with the expansion and intensification of olive orchards in Spain, taking place mainly with new irrigated areas or with the conversion from rainfed to irrigated systems. Moreover, changing climate conditions might exert a major role on water yield trends, but it remains unclear the role that ongoing land use and land cover changes (LULCC) might have on observed river flow trends. This thesis aims to improve the understanding of the effects of agricultural production, policies and LULCC on water quality conditions, hydrological response and human water appropriation. Firstly, the study determines the existing trends for nitrates and suspended solids in the Guadalquivir river basin’s surface waters (south Spain) during the period from 1998 to 2009. From a policy perspective, the research tries to assess with panel data analysis the main drivers, including the 2003 CAP reform, which are having an influence on both water quality indicators. Secondly, water appropriation and nitrate pollution level originating from the production of olive oil in Spain is determined with a water footprint (WF) assessment, considering a spatial temporal variability across the Spanish provinces and from 1997 to 2008 years. Finally, the thesis analyzes the effects of the LULCC on the observed negative trends over the period 1973-2008 in the Upper Turia basin, headwaters of the Júcar river demarcation (east Spain), with ecohydrological modeling. In the Guadalquivir river basin about 20% of monitoring stations show significant trends, linear or quadratic, for each water quality indicator. Most significant trends of nitrates are augmenting than decreasing, and most significant quadratic terms of both indicators exhibit U-shaped patterns. The panel data models show that the most important drivers that are worsening nitrates and suspended solids in the basin are biomass intensification and exports of both water quality indicators from upland regions. In regions that agricultural abandonment and/or de-intensification have taken place the water quality conditions have improved. For nitrates, the decoupling of agricultural subsidies and the reduction of the amount of subsidies to irrigated land underlie the observed reduction of nitrates concentration. Measures of irrigation modernization and establishment of vulnerable zones to nitrates ameliorate the concentration of nitrates in subbasins showing an increasing trend. However, the effect of nitrates load from upland areas, intensification of biomass and crop prices present a greater weight leading to the final increasing trend in this subbasins group, where annual crops dominate. For suspended solids, there is no clear evidence that decoupling process have influenced negatively or positively. Nevertheless, greater values of subsidies still linked to production, particularly in irrigated regions, lead to increasing erosion rates. Although agricultural production has augmented in the basin and water efficiency in the agricultural sector has improved, the issue of high erosion rates has not yet been properly faced. The water footprint (WF) assessment reveals that for 1 L Spanish olive oil more than 99.5% of the WF is related to the olive fruit production, whereas less than 0.5% is due to other components i.e. bottle, cap and label. Over the studied period, the green WF in rainfed and irrigated systems represents about 72% and 12%, respectively, of the total WF. Blue and grey WFs represent 6% and 10%, respectively. The olive production is concentrated in regions with the smallest WF per unit of product. The olive oil production has increased its apparent water productivity from 1997 to 2008 incentivized by growing trade prices, but also did the amount of virtual water exports. In fact, the largest producing areas present high water use efficiency per product and apparent water productivity as well as less nitrates pollution potential, but this enhances the pressure on the available water resources. Increasing groundwater abstractions related to olive oil exports may add further pressure to the already stressed Guadalquivir basin. This shows the need to balance the market forces with the available local resources. Concerning the effects of LULCC on the Upper Turia basin’s streamflow, LULCC play a significant role on the water balance, but it is not the main driver underpinning the observed reduction on Turia's streamflow. Increasing mean temperature is the main factor supporting larger evapotranspiration rates and streamflow reduction. In fact, LULCC and climate change have had an offsetting effect on the streamflow generation during the study period. While streamflow has been negatively affected by increasing temperature, ongoing LULCC have positively compensated with reduced evapotranspiration rates, thanks to mainly shrubland clearing and forest degradation processes. The research provides insight for strengthening the interdisciplinarity between hydrological and spatial planning, highlighting the need to include the implications of LULCC in future hydrological plans. These findings are valuable for the management of the Turia river basin, as well as a useful approach for the determination of the weight of LULCC on the hydrological response in other regions.

Toward a successful multinational crop plant genome initiative

Plant genome research is needed as the foundation for an entirely new level of efficiency and success in the application of genetics and breeding to crop plants and products from crop plants. Genetic improvements in crop plants beyond current capabilities are needed to meet the growing world demand not only for more food, but also a greater diversity of food, higher-quality food, and safer food, produced on less land, while conserving soil, water, and genetic resources. Plant biology research, which is poised for dramatic advances, also depends fundamentally on plant genome research. The current Arabidopsis Genome Project has proved of immediate value to plant biology research, but a much greater effort is needed to ensure the full benefits of plant biology and especially plant genome research to agriculture. International cooperation is critical, both because genome projects are too large for any one country and the information forthcoming is of benefit to the world and not just the countries that do the work. Recent research on grass genomes has revealed that, because of extensive senteny and colinearity within linkage groups that make up the chromosomes, new information on the genome of one grass can be used to understand the genomes and predict the location of genes on chromosomes of the other grasses. Genome research applied to grasses as a group thereby can increase the efficiency and effectiveness of breeding for improvement of each member of this group, which includes wheat, corn, and rice, the world’s three most important sources of food.

Drivers of agricultural capital productivity in selected EU member states. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 30, September 2012

The aim of this Working Paper is to provide an empirical analysis of the marginal return on working capital and fixed capital in agriculture, based on data gathered by the Farm Accountancy Data Network from seven EU member states. Particular emphasis is placed on the detection of credit market imperfections. The key idea is to provide farm group-specific estimates of the shadow price of capital, and to use these to analyse the drivers of on-farm capital use in European agriculture. Based on Cobb Douglas estimates of farm-type specific production functions, we find that working capital is typically used in more than economically optimal quantities and often displays negative marginal returns across countries and farm types. This is less often the case with regard to fixed capital, but it is only in a small set of sectors where access to fixed capital appears severely constrained. These sectors include field crop and mixed farms in Denmark, dairy farms in East Germany, as well as mixed farms in Italy and the UK. The relationship between farm financial indicators and the estimated shadow prices of capital varies considerably across countries and sectors. Among the farms with a high shadow price for fixed capital in Denmark, high debt levels and little owned land tended to induce more intensive capital use, which may reflect the liberal Danish banking system. In East Germany, Italy and the UK, high debt levels made farmers more tightly capital constrained. Hence, in the latter group of countries, more traditional mechanisms of capital allocation based on debt capacity seemed to be at work. As a general conclusion, EU agriculture appears to be characterised by overcapitalisation rather than by credit constraints.

Does land fragmentation affect farm performance? A case study from Brittany. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 40, April 2013

Agricultural land fragmentation is widespread and may affect farmers’ decisions and impact farm performance, either negatively or positively. The authors investigated this impact for the western region of Brittany, France, in 2007, regressing a set of performance indicators on a set of fragmentation descriptors. The performance indicators (production costs, yields, revenue, profitability, technical and scale efficiency) were calculated at the farm level using Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) data, while the fragmentation descriptors were calculated at the municipality level using data from the cartographic field pattern registry (RPG). The various fragmentation descriptors enabled the authors to account for not only the traditional number and average size of plots, but also their geographical scattering. They found that farms experienced higher costs of production, lower crop yields and lower profitability where land fragmentation (LF) was more pronounced. Total technical efficiency was not found to be significantly related to any of the municipality LF descriptors used, while scale efficiency was lower where the average distance to the nearest neighbouring plot was greater. Pure technical efficiency was found to be negatively related to the average number of plots in the municipality, with the unexpected result that it was also positively related to the average distance to the nearest neighbouring plot. By simulating the impact of hypothetical consolidation programmes on average pre-tax profits and wheat yield, the study also showed that the marginal benefits of reducing fragmentation may differ with respect to the improved LF dimension and the performance indicator considered. The analysis therefore shows that the measures of land fragmentation usually used in the literature do not reveal the full set of significant relationships with farm performance and that, in particular, measures accounting for distance should be considered more systematically.

Land Use and Production. 1976.

"Part I, covering land use, includes figures for the enlarged European Community for 1958 and 1965, together with those for 1973, 1974 and 1975. Provisional figures are also provided for the most important crop groups in 1976. The EUR 9 totals for 1958 and 1965 are given merely for information as the enlarged Community has been in existence only since 1 January 1973. The figures for EUR 9 for the years 1955 to 1972 may be found in the publication 'Agricultural Statistics' No 2/1974....The statistics on land use cover only the main crop area and not the secondary crop areas under associated crops and catch crops. For information on the methods used in the present document the reader is referred to the common six-language nomenclature for land use and production statistics (pages X —XIII)."

Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

Metropolitan America in transition: implications for land use and transportation planning.

Mode of access: Internet.

Crop report and related data, Federal reclamation projects.

Vols. for 1954-68 accompanied by a separately paged statistical appendix.

Spider ballooning in soybean and non-crop areas of southeast Queensland

Ballooning is a form of aerial movement practiced by most miniature and some adult spiders. Very few studies have investigated the composition and rate of spider ballooning in Australian agroecosystems. Water traps were used to compare ballooning rates in irrigated soybean crops and nearby non-crop areas in southeast Queensland over two summer seasons. The highest ballooning rate (14.8 spiders/m(2) per day) was recorded in a soybean field, non-crop areas (7.0 spiders/m(2) per day) and a dry land mungbean field (6.8 spiders/m(2) per day) having similar rates. Spider ballooning in soybean increased throughout the season and showed three peaks and intervening troughs. A similar pattern in ballooning peaks was observed in non-crop areas however the numbers were lower. Peaks in ballooning activity where synchronised across habitat types and some spider groups. Composition of the ballooning fauna was different from that of the ground-dwelling fauna, some families being present in both. Ballooning is an important behaviour in terms of population dynamics for a number of spider groups in soybean and the implications for pest control are discussed. (C) 2004 Elsevier BN. All rights reserved.

Estimating percolation and lateral water flow on sloping land in rainfed lowland rice ecosystem

Quantifying water losses in paddy fields assists estimation of water availability in rainfed lowland rice ecosystem. Little information is available on water balance in different toposequence positions of sloped rainfed lowland. Therefore, the aim of this work was to quantify percolation and the lateral water flow with special reference to the toposequential variation. Data used for the analysis was collected in Laos and northeast Thailand. Percolation and water tables were measured on a daily basis using a steel cylindrical tube with a lid and perforated PVC tubes, respectively. Percolation rate was determined using linear regression analysis of cumulative percolation. Assuming that the total amount of evaporation and transpiration was equivalent to potential evapotranspiration, the lateral water flow was estimated using the water balance equation. Separate perched water and groundwater tables were observed in paddy fields on coarse-textured soils. The percolation rate varied between 0 and 3 mm/day across locations, and the maximum water loss by lateral movement was more than 20 mm/day. Our results are in agreement with the previously reported findings, and the methodology of estimating water balance components appears reasonably acceptable. With regard to the toposequential variation, the higher the position in the topoesquence, the greater potential for water loss because of higher percolation and lateral flow rates.