ESTABLISHMENT TECHNIQUES FOR TROPICAL LEGUMES IN THE UNDERSTORY OF A EUCALYPTUS PLANTATION

This study evaluated establishment methods for a mixture of herbaceous forage legumes [Centrosema acutifolium, Clitoria ternatea, Pueraria phaseoloides, Stylosanthes Campo Grande (Stylosanthes capitata + S. macrocephala), Calopogonium mucunoides, Lablab purpureus, Arachis pintoi, and Aeschynomene villosa] under the shade of an Eucalyptus grandis plantation submitted to thinning (40%) 8 years after planting in Anhembi, São Paulo (22°40'S, 48°10'W, altitude of 455 m). The experiment started in December 2008 and consisted of the comparison of the following four types of seed incorporation by light disc harrowing: (1) broadcast sowing without seed incorporation; disc harrowing before (2) or after (3) planting, and (4) disc harrowing before and after planting. Ninety days after planting, the number of legume plants/m2 and the percentage of ground cover by the plants varied between the treatments tested; however, the treatments had no effect on the dry matter accumulation of forage legumes. Disc harrowing before planting yielded superior results compared to the treatments without disc harrowing and disc harrowing after planting. At the end of the experimental period, the plots contained Arachis, Centrosema, Stylosanthes, and Pueraria. The dry matter accumulated by Centrosema corresponded to 73% of total dry matter yield of the plots. The participation of Arachis, Centrosema and Stylosanthes in final dry matter composition of the plots varied according to establishment method. The advantages of the use of species mixtures rather than monocultures in the understory of forest plantations were discussed.

ABOVEGROUND AND BELOWGROUND BIOMASS AND CARBON ESTIMATES FOR CLONAL EUCALYPTUS TREES IN SOUTHEAST BRAZIL

Eucalyptus plantations represent a short term and cost efficient alternative for sequestrating carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Despite the known potential of forest plantations of fast growing species to store carbon in the biomass, there are relatively few studies including precise estimates of the amount of carbon in these plantations. In this study it was determined the carbon content in the stems, branches, leaves and roots of a clonal Eucalyptus grandis plantation in the Southeast of Brazil. We developed allometric equations to estimate the total amount of carbon and total biomass, and produced an estimate of the carbon stock in the stand level. Altogether, 23 sample trees were selected for aboveground biomass assessment. The roots of 9 of the 23 sampled trees were partially excavated to assess the belowground biomass at a singletree level. Two models with DBH, H and DBH2H were tested. The average relative share of carbon content in the stem, branch, leaf and root compartments was 44.6%, 43.0%, 46.1% and 37.8%, respectively, which is smaller than the generic value commonly used (50%). The best-fit allometric equations to estimate the total amount of carbon and total biomass had DBH2H as independent variable. The root-to-shoot ratio was relatively stable (C.V. = 27.5%) probably because the sub-sample was composed of clones. Total stand carbon stock in the Eucalyptus plantation was estimated to be 73.38 MgC ha-1, which is within the carbon stock range for Eucalyptus plantations.

NON-DESTRUCTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE ROOT SYSTEM AND TREE GROWTH PARAMETERS

ABSTRACT The productivity of Eucalyptus at plantations is increasing and has undergone a variety of research studies. Most research is dealing with simple dendrometric variables like the DBH (diameter at breast height) and tree height, or more complex variables including crown parameters or variables concerning photosynthesis. The root systems, however, have not been well analyzed yet. The objective of the study was to analyze the root system with a non-destructive method and to evaluate possible correlations with dendrometric variables of the tree (DBH, height, crown expansion). A small experimental plantation with 39 even-aged, 6-year-old trees of Eucalyptus grandis x urophylla has been investigated within this study. The results of the study show the highest correlation of the root areas with the crown expansion. In general, the root area shows a significantly bigger expansion in the eucalypt plantation than the tree crown, with a more homogeneous development.

MODELING AND SIMULATION OF RELIEF INFLUENCE ON EUCALYPTUS FORESTS: INTERACTION BETWEEN SOLAR IRRADIANCE AND PRODUCTIVITY

ABSTRACT This study aimed to verify the differences in radiation intensity as a function of distinct relief exposure surfaces and to quantify these effects on the leaf area index (LAI) and other variables expressing eucalyptus forest productivity for simulations in a process-based growth model. The study was carried out at two contrasting edaphoclimatic locations in the Rio Doce basin in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Two stands with 32-year-old plantations were used, allocating fixed plots in locations with northern and southern exposure surfaces. The meteorological data were obtained from two automated weather stations located near the study sites. Solar radiation was corrected for terrain inclination and exposure surfaces, as it is measured based on the plane, perpendicularly to the vertical location. The LAI values collected in the field were used. For the comparative simulations in productivity variation, the mechanistic 3PG model was used, considering the relief exposure surfaces. It was verified that during most of the year, the southern surfaces showed lower availability of incident solar radiation, resulting in up to 66% losses, compared to the same surface considered plane, probably related to its geographical location and higher declivity. Higher values were obtained for the plantings located on the northern surface for the variables LAI, volume and mean annual wood increase, with this tendency being repeated in the 3PG model simulations.

Root exudation of imazapyr by eucalypt, cultivated in soil

Imazapyr has been used to control stump sprouting in stand of Eucalyptus plantations, where herbicide is applied to the tree trunk before cutting. The herbicide is applied exclusively on the stump to be killed, but little is known about the final fate of the molecule. Imazapyr exudation via roots of eucalypt grown in soil as the substrate was evaluated under greenhouse conditions. Different herbicide doses (0.000, 0.375, 0.750, 1.125, 1.500, and 3.000 kg ha-1 a.i.) were applied on the aerial parts of 8-month-old Eucalyptus grandis clonal seedlings, cultivated in pots with 18.0 dm³ of soil. Forty days after this treatment, the eucalypt plants were cut and a lateral opening in the containers was made and the plants inclined 90º, with plants sensitive to herbicide presence (sorghum and cucumber) sown into the openings along the exposed soil surface. After 15-day sowing, toxicity symptoms on the shoots as well as the shoot and root system dry biomass of the bio-indicators were evaluated. The results suggest that eucalypt roots do exude imazapyr, and/or its metabolites, at concentrations high enough to cause toxicity to the bio-indicators. Toxicity effects were observed in all plants sown along the exposed soil profile of the container, with higher intensity at higher doses.

Chlorophyll fluorescence in guanandi tree (Calophyllum brasiliense) after herbicide application

Chlorophyll fluorescence is currently used as a rapid diagnostic and nondestructive method to detect and quantify damage on the photosynthetic apparatus of leaves on weeds, crops and ornamental/coniferous trees in response to both environmental stress and herbicides. This study aimed to evaluate chlorophyll fluorescence in guanandi plants (Calophyllum brasiliense) after application of different postemergence herbicides. The experiment was performed in a completely randomized design, with six treatments (control, bentazon, sulfentrazone, isoxaflutole, atrazine and glyphosate) and five replications. The herbicide treatments were applied with a stationary sprayer, and electron transport rate (ETR) was subsequently analyzed with OS5p Multi-Mode Chlorophyll Fluorometer. In the monitored period, guanandi plants subjected to atrazine showed higher sensitivity to chlorophyll fluorescence than the other treatments. Although bentazon is a photosystem II inhibitor, it showed no major changes in electron transport for the studied species and in the monitored period. In summary, ETR is a good parameter to evaluate the effect of some herbicides on Calophyllum brasiliense plants.

Feasibility of the use of recycled nutrients in fast growing pulpwood production

The application of pulp and paper mill (PPM) sludge in agriculture and forestry has been acknowledged as soil amendments and a plant nutrient source. The main objectives of this study were to evaluate the total cost of the use of recycled nutrients from PPM sludge in fast growing pulpwood production, and the financial profitability of fast growing pulpwood production with the use of these recycled nutrients. The investment and production costs of fast growing pulpwood plantation were directly acquired from a previous research, while the other data was compiled through different studies. The total cost of the use of PPM sludge was evaluated based on assumed factors. Discounted cash flow method was used to evaluate the financial profitability, using NPV and IRR as indicators. The results of estimated sludge nutrient contents were 16.2 g N, 2.9 g P, and 2.4 g K kg-1 of dry sludge. The sludge application rate was estimated at 1.36 Mg/ha in the first year. The total cost of the use of PPM sludge involved transport and spreading cost of US$49.15/dry ton. The fertilization cost applied in the financial model was designed in 3 different options and their results were as follows: option (1) was taken directly from the reference research (US$97/ha); option (2) was the use of sludge alone (US$66.75/ha); and option (3) was the use of sludge and TSP fertilizer (US$83.80/ha). The average NPV without discounting was US$248,180 while the IRRs ranged between approximately 3-4% with an average of 3.63%. Although option (2) and (3) contributed to higher IRRs compared to option (1), this increase was still not significant as the IRR was not sensitive to the total fertilization cost. The advantages are that this practice can be performed at a lower cost and the application rate can be still increased if necessary. It is better for forest plantations compared to agriculture and consequently supports reforestation program. In addition, it can be similarly applied in wood biomass production. A disadvantage is that the IRRs were not very favorable compared to the criterion of 11%. The sludge high in C:N ratio can cause nitrogen immobilization, and regulatory concerns may restrict and complicate the use of sludge landspreading and contribute to additional costs and processes.

Physiological quality of coffee seeds produced under different levels of solar radiation and maturation stages

In Brazil, although the coffee plantations are predominantly grown under full sunlight, the use of agroforestry systems can lead to socioeconomic advantages, thus providing a favorable environment to the crop by promoting its sustainability as well as environmental preservation. However, there is a lack of information on physiological quality of the coffee seeds produced under different levels of solar radiation. Within this context, the objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of different levels of solar radiation and maturation stages on the physiological quality of coffee (Coffea arabica L.) seeds, cv. Acaiá Cerrado MG-1474. Three levels of solar radiation (plants grown under full sunlight; under plastic screens of 35% shading; and under plastic screens of 50% shading) and three maturation stages (cherry, greenish-yellow and green) were assessed. Physiological quality of seeds was assessed by using germination test, first count of germination, abnormal seedlings, dead seeds, and seedlings with open cotyledonary leaves. Electrophoretic analysis of isoenzymes catalase, esterase, superoxide dismutase and peroxidase was also performed. With the evolution of development the coffee seeds presents increases on physiological quality, and at its beginning the seeds show improvements on quality with the reduction of solar radiation.

An investigation of sugar feeding by black flies (Diptera: Simuliidae)

Although much research has been conducted on blood-meal acquisition in adult female black flies (Diptera: Simuliidae), the same cannot be said for sugarmeals. Both sexes feed on sugar which provides energy for flight and it has been commonly held that nectar is the major carbohydrate source. This thesis addresses the question of whether a non-floral carbohydrate source, specifically homopteran honeydew, is ingested by male and female black flies. Black flies reared in the laboratory have been observed to readily ingest freshly excreted and older (dry) honeydew when presented with honeydew coated tamarack branches. Field work was conducted in Algonquin Park, Ontario in the spring and summer of 1993. Three separate studies were designed to test whether homopteran honeydew is an important carbohydrate source for black flies and whether flies from different habitats utilize different sugar sources. The sugars melezitose and / or stachyose are known to occur in a variety of homopteran honeydews and therefore were used as indicators of honeydew feeding by black flies. In the first study, black flies were collected with insect nets from a stand of Larix larcina heavily infested with honeydew - producing homopterans (Adelges lariciatus). Six black fly species were captured: Simulium venustum, S. rostra tum, S. vittatum, Stegopterna mutata, S. aureum and S. quebecense. Samples of honeydew and individual black flies were tested using thin layer chromatography (T. L. C.) with fructose, glucose, sucrose, turanose, melezitose, raffinose and stachyose as standards. All sugars except turanose and melezitose were found in the adelgid honeydew samples. Since the sugar melezitose was absent from ~ honeydew samples, stachyose was used to indicate that black flies were feeding from this particular honeydew source. Of the 201 black flies tested, 194 contained sugars which occurred in 16 combinations. Stachyose combinations excluding melezitose, present in 45.9 % of flies, were used to indicate that black flies had been feeding on the adelgid honeydew. In the second study, black flies were collected in the morning and evening on 8 collection dates, using a vehicle mounted insect net. The crops and midguts of 10 male and 10 female Simulium venustum were dissected on each sample date. In total the gut contents of 320 individual flies were analysed by T. L. C. The sugars identified from these flies were present in the following proportions: fructose (100.0%), glucose (100.0%), sucrose/turanose (50.4%), melezitose (30.3%), raffinose (18.8%) and stachyose (8.7%). These sugars occurred in fourteen different combinations. It is argued that the presence of melezitose and / or stachyose indicates that black flies had fed on homopteran honeydew. Significantly more female flies (40.0%) than male flies (27.5%) had fed on honeydew. In the third study, adult black flies were sampled by sweep netting vegetation in four habitats in the morning and evening on 8 collection dates. The habitats are as follows: (1) Davies Bog, (2) Abandoned Air Field (dominated by blueberries, Vaccinium spp.), (3) Deciduous Habitat and (4) Coniferous Habitat. Sugars in the crops and midguts of female flies were tested by T. L. C. and, for S. venustum, it was found that significantly fewer flies (18.8%) from the Air Field contained honeydew than from the other three sites (Davies Bog, 34.4%; Deciduous Habitat, 36.2%; Coniferous Habitat, 25.0%). Of the 1287 black flies tested individually by T. L. C. 441 (34.3%) contained melezitose and / or stachyose sugars indicating that this proportion of the population were feeding from Homopteran honeydew. It is therefore clear that floral (nectar) sugars are not the only source of carbohydrates available to black flies.

Aspects of spatial and habitat ecology of multiple Anopheles species (Diptera: Culicidae): malaria vectors in the highlands and foothills of Ecuador

The resurgence of malaria in highland regions of Africa, Oceania and recently in South America underlines the importance of the study of the ecology of highland mosquito vectors of malaria. Since the incidence of malaria is limited by the distribution of its vectors, the purpose of this PhD thesis was to examine aspects of the ecology of Anopheles mosquitoes in the Andes of Ecuador, South America. A historical literature and archival data review (Chapter 2) indicated that Anopheles pseudopunctipennis transmitted malaria in highland valleys of Ecuador prior to 1950, although it was eliminated through habitat removal and the use of chemical insecticides. Other anopheline species were previously limited to low-altitude regions, except in a few unconfirmed cases. A thorough larval collection effort (n=438 attempted collection sites) in all road-accessible parts of Ecuador except for the lowland Amazon basin was undertaken between 2008 - 2010 (Chapter 3). Larvae were identified morphologically and using molecular techniques (mitochondrial COl gene), and distribution maps indicated that all five species collected (Anopheles albimanus, An. pseudopunctipennis, Anopheles punctimacula, Anopheles oswaldoi s.l. and Anopheles eiseni) were more widespread throughout highland regions than previously recorded during the 1940s, with higher maximum altitudes for all except An. pseudopunctipennis (1541 m, 1930 m, 1906 m, 1233 m and 1873 m, respectively). During larval collections, to characterize species-specific larval habitat, a variety of abiotic and biotic habitat parameters were measured and compared between species-present and species-absent sites using chi-square tests and stepwise binary logistic regression analyses (Chapter 4). An. albimanus was significantly associated with permanent pools with sand substrates and An. pseudopunctipennis with gravel and boulder substrates. Both species were significantly associated with floating cyanobacterial mats and warmer temperatures, which may limit their presence in cooler highland regions. Anopheles punctimacula was collected more often than expected from algae-free, shaded pools with higher-than-average calculated dissolved oxygen. Anopheles oswaldoi s.l., the species occurring on the Amazonian side of the Andes, was associated with permanent, anthropogenic habitats such as roadside ditches and ponds. To address the hypothesis that human land use change is responsible for the emergence of multiple highland Anopheles species by creating larval habitat, common land uses in the western Andes were surveyed for standing water and potential larval habitat suitability (Chapter 5). Rivers and road edges provided large amounts of potentially suitable anopheline habitat in the western Andes, while cattle pasture also created potentially suitable habitat in irrigation canals and watering ponds. Other common land uses surveyed (banana farms, sugarcane plantations, mixed tree plantations, and empty lots) were usually established on steep slopes and had very little standing water present. Using distribution and larval habitat data, a GIS-based larval habitat distribution model for the common western species was constructed in ArcGIS v.l 0 (ESRI 2010) using derived data layers from field measurements and other sources (Chapter 6). The additive model predicted 76.4 - 97.9% of the field-observed collection localities of An. albimanus, An. pseudopunctipennis and An. punctimacula, although it could not accurately distinguish between species-absent and speciespresent sites due to its coarse scale. The model predicted distributional expansion and/or shift of one or more anopheline species into the following highland valleys with climate warming: Mira/Chota, Imbabura province, Tumbaco, Pichincha province, Pallatanga and Sibambe, Chimborazo province, and Yungilla, Azuay province. These valleys may serve as targeted sites of future monitoring to prevent highland epidemics of malaria. The human perceptions of malaria and mosquitoes in relation to land management practices were assessed through an interview-based survey (n=262) in both highlands and lowlands, of male and female land owners and managers of five property types (Chapter 7). Although respondents had a strong understanding of where the disease occurs in their own country and of the basic relationship among standing water, mosquitoes and malaria, about half of respondents in potential risk areas denied the current possibility of malaria infection on their own property. As well, about half of respondents with potential anopheline larval habitat did not report its presence, likely due to a highly specific definition of suitable mosquito habitat. Most respondents who are considered at risk of malaria currently use at least one type of mosquito bite prevention, most commonly bed nets. In conclusion, this interdisciplinary thesis examines the occurrence of Anopheles species in the lowland transition area and highlands in Ecuador, from a historic, geographic, ecological and sociological perspective.

Larval habitat associations with human land uses, roads, rivers, and land cover for Anopheles albimanus, A. pseudopunctipennis, and A. punctimacula (Diptera: Culicidae) in coastal and highland Ecuador

Larval habitat for three highland Anopheles species: Anopheles albimanus Wiedemann, Anopheles pseudopunctipennis Theobald, and Anopheles punctimacula Dyar and Knab was related to human land uses, rivers, roads, and remotely sensed land cover classifications in the western Ecuadorian Andes. Of the five commonly observed human land uses, cattle pasture (n = 30) provided potentially suitable habitat for A. punctimacula and A. albimanus in less than 14% of sites, and was related in a principal components analysis (PCA) to the presence of macrophyte vegetation, greater surface area, clarity, and algae cover. Empty lots (n = 30) were related in the PCA to incident sunlight and provided potential habitat for A. pseudopunctipennis and A. albimanus in less than 14% of sites. The other land uses surveyed (banana, sugarcane, and mixed tree plantations; n = 28, 21, 25, respectively) provided very little standing water that could potentially be used for larval habitat. River edges and eddies (n = 41) were associated with greater clarity, depth, temperature, and algae cover, which provide potentially suitable habitat for A. albimanus in 58% of sites and A. pseudopunctipennis in 29% of sites. Road-associated water bodies (n = 38) provided potential habitat for A. punctimacula in 44% of sites and A. albimanus in 26% of sites surveyed. Species collection localities were compared to land cover classifications using Geographic Information Systems software. All three mosquito species were associated more often with the category “closed/open broadleaved evergreen and/or semi-deciduous forests” than expected (P ≤ 0.01 in all cases), given such a habitat’s abundance. This study provides evidence that specific human land uses create habitat for potential malaria vectors in highland regions of the Andes.

Valorisation de lisier de porc dans une plantation de saules à croissance rapide

Le but de cette étude est de mieux comprendre l’effet d’une fertilisation en lisier de porc sur la productivité d’une plantation de saule tout en évaluant les risques d’impact négatif sur l’environnement. Nous avons évalué la réponse des plants à des quantités croissantes de lisiers en plus de la comparer à celle d’une fertilisation minérale. Nous avons aussi vérifié l’impact du lisier sur les teneurs nutritionnelles du sol ainsi que sur les concentrations en nitrates et phosphore de la solution du sol. Bien que l’azote du lisier soit moins efficace que celui des engrais minéraux, les résultats de notre étude montrent que le lisier est un bon engrais pour les plantations de saules. En effet, les rendements sur deux ans des parcelles ayant reçu les quantités croissantes de lisier étaient de l’ordre de 30,3 à 32,9 t/ha. Nous avons observé l’augmentation des teneurs en nitrate, cuivre et zinc dans le sol en fonction des apports croissants de lisier. Ces teneurs ont d’ailleurs diminué lors de la deuxième saison de croissance, ce qui pourrait être dû au prélèvement par les saules. Les concentrations printanières des eaux de lysimètres indiquent que la quantité maximale de lisier telle que testée lors de nos essais comporte un certain facteur de risque de lessivage des nitrates. Nous n’avons pas analysé la solution du sol des parcelles fertilisées avec des quantités plus faibles de lisier, mais nous pouvons croire qu’elles auraient induit des concentrations en nitrate comportant moins de risque de lessivage tout en assurant une productivité considérable.

Vers une transition forestière en Thaïlande? : analyse causale de l’avancée des forêts à partir du cas de Phetchabun

Selon des thèses développées au cours des années 1990 et 2000, le développement économique constitue à la fois la source et la solution aux problèmes environnementaux. Au sujet des forêts, les transitions forestières (c’est-à-dire le passage de la déforestation à la reforestation) documentées dans certains pays développés seraient causées par des dynamiques universelles intrinsèques au développement et à la modernisation des sociétés. Nos travaux ont porté sur l’application de cette vision optimiste et controversée à l’évolution des superficies forestières en Thaïlande. S’appuyant sur une recension de la littérature, sur des données secondaires ainsi que nos travaux de terrain dans la région de Phetchabun, la thèse offre les apports suivants. Elle démontre que contrairement à l’idée répandue en Thaïlande, le ralentissement de la déforestation a été suivi par une expansion forestière substantielle entre environ 1995 et 2005. Ce regain forestier est lié à la disparition presque complète de l’expansion agricole, à l’établissement de plantations sylvicoles et, surtout, à l’abandon de terres agricoles. Cet abandon agricole découle d’abord et avant tout de la faible et incertaine rentabilité de l’agriculture dans certaines zones non irriguées. Ce phénomène s’explique, entre autres, par la dégradation des sols et par l’incapacité des agriculteurs à contrer l’impact des transformations économiques internes et externes à la Thaïlande. L’accroissement de la pression de conservation n’a pu contribuer à l’expansion forestière que dans certains contextes (projets de reforestation majeurs appuyés par l’armée, communautés divisées, terres déjà abandonnées). Sans en être une cause directe, l’intensification agricole et la croissance des secteurs non agricoles ont rendu moins pénibles la confiscation et l’abandon des terres et ont permis que de tels phénomènes surviennent sans entraîner d’importants troubles sociaux. Dans un contexte d’accroissement des prix agricoles, notamment celui du caoutchouc naturel, une partie du regain forestier aurait été perdu depuis 2005 en raison d’une ré-expansion des surfaces agricoles. Cela illustre le caractère non permanent de la transition forestière et la faiblesse des mesures de conservation lorsque les perspectives de profit sont grandes. La thèse montre que, pour être robuste, une théorie de la transition forestière doit être contingente et reconnaître que les variables macro-sociales fréquemment invoquées pour expliquer les transitions forestières (ex. : démocratisation, intensification agricole, croissance économique) peuvent aussi leur nuire. Une telle théorie doit également prendre en compte des éléments d’explication non strictement économiques et souvent négligés (menaces à la sécurité nationale, épuisement des terres perçues comme arables et libres, degré d’attachement aux terres et capacité d’adaptation et résilience des systèmes agricoles). Finalement, les écrits sur la transition forestière doivent reconnaître qu’elle a généralement impliqué des impacts sociaux et même environnementaux négatifs. Une lecture de la transition forestière plus nuancée et moins marquée par l’obsession de la seule reforestation est seule garante d’une saine gestion de l’environnement en respect avec les droits humains, la justice sociale et le développement durable.

L’arbre de régression multivariable et les modèles linéaires généralisés revisités : applications à l’étude de la diversité bêta et à l’estimation de la biomasse d’arbres tropicaux

En écologie, dans le cadre par exemple d’études des services fournis par les écosystèmes, les modélisations descriptive, explicative et prédictive ont toutes trois leur place distincte. Certaines situations bien précises requièrent soit l’un soit l’autre de ces types de modélisation ; le bon choix s’impose afin de pouvoir faire du modèle un usage conforme aux objectifs de l’étude. Dans le cadre de ce travail, nous explorons dans un premier temps le pouvoir explicatif de l’arbre de régression multivariable (ARM). Cette méthode de modélisation est basée sur un algorithme récursif de bipartition et une méthode de rééchantillonage permettant l’élagage du modèle final, qui est un arbre, afin d’obtenir le modèle produisant les meilleures prédictions. Cette analyse asymétrique à deux tableaux permet l’obtention de groupes homogènes d’objets du tableau réponse, les divisions entre les groupes correspondant à des points de coupure des variables du tableau explicatif marquant les changements les plus abrupts de la réponse. Nous démontrons qu’afin de calculer le pouvoir explicatif de l’ARM, on doit définir un coefficient de détermination ajusté dans lequel les degrés de liberté du modèle sont estimés à l’aide d’un algorithme. Cette estimation du coefficient de détermination de la population est pratiquement non biaisée. Puisque l’ARM sous-tend des prémisses de discontinuité alors que l’analyse canonique de redondance (ACR) modélise des gradients linéaires continus, la comparaison de leur pouvoir explicatif respectif permet entre autres de distinguer quel type de patron la réponse suit en fonction des variables explicatives. La comparaison du pouvoir explicatif entre l’ACR et l’ARM a été motivée par l’utilisation extensive de l’ACR afin d’étudier la diversité bêta. Toujours dans une optique explicative, nous définissons une nouvelle procédure appelée l’arbre de régression multivariable en cascade (ARMC) qui permet de construire un modèle tout en imposant un ordre hiérarchique aux hypothèses à l’étude. Cette nouvelle procédure permet d’entreprendre l’étude de l’effet hiérarchisé de deux jeux de variables explicatives, principal et subordonné, puis de calculer leur pouvoir explicatif. L’interprétation du modèle final se fait comme dans une MANOVA hiérarchique. On peut trouver dans les résultats de cette analyse des informations supplémentaires quant aux liens qui existent entre la réponse et les variables explicatives, par exemple des interactions entres les deux jeux explicatifs qui n’étaient pas mises en évidence par l’analyse ARM usuelle. D’autre part, on étudie le pouvoir prédictif des modèles linéaires généralisés en modélisant la biomasse de différentes espèces d’arbre tropicaux en fonction de certaines de leurs mesures allométriques. Plus particulièrement, nous examinons la capacité des structures d’erreur gaussienne et gamma à fournir les prédictions les plus précises. Nous montrons que pour une espèce en particulier, le pouvoir prédictif d’un modèle faisant usage de la structure d’erreur gamma est supérieur. Cette étude s’insère dans un cadre pratique et se veut un exemple pour les gestionnaires voulant estimer précisément la capture du carbone par des plantations d’arbres tropicaux. Nos conclusions pourraient faire partie intégrante d’un programme de réduction des émissions de carbone par les changements d’utilisation des terres.

Piédestal et indépendance féminine : la hiérarchie de genre sudiste pendant la guerre civile et la Reconstruction

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal