Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5A degrees N-15A degrees S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8A degrees C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4A degrees C and in winter between 3 and 5A degrees C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.

Early Increase in Autoantibodies Against Human Oxidized Low-Density Lipoprotein in Hypertensive Patients After Blood Pressure Control

BACKGROUND Oxidized lipoproteins and antioxidized low-density lipoprotein (anti-oxLDL) antibodies (Abs) have been detected in plasma in response to blood pressure (BP) elevation, suggesting the participation of the adaptive immune system. Therefore, treatment of hypertension may act on the immune response by decreasing oxidation stimuli. However, this issue has not been addressed. Thus, we have here analyzed anti-oxLDL Abs in untreated (naive) hypertensive patients shortly after initiation of anti hypertensive therapeutic regimens. METHODS Titers of anti-oxLDL Abs were measured in subjects with recently diagnosed hypertension on stage 1 (n = 94), in primary prevention of coronary disease, with no other risk factors, and naive of anti hypertensive medication at entry. Subjects were randomly assigned to receive perindopril, hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ), or indapamide (INDA) for 12 weeks, with additional perindopril if necessary to achieve BP control. Abs against copper-oxidized LDL were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS Twelve-week antihypertensive treatment reduced both office-based and 24-h ambulatory BP measurements (P < 0.0005). The decrease in BP was accompanied by reduction in thiobarbituric acid-reactive substances (TBARS) (P < 0.05), increase in anti-oxLDL Ab titers (P < 0.005), and improvement in flow-mediated dilation (FMD) (P < 0.0005), independently of treatment. Although BP was reduced, we observed favorable changes in anti-oxLDL titers and FMD. CONCLUSIONS We observed that anti-oxLDL Ab titers increase after antihypertensive therapy in primary prevention when achieving BP targets. Our results are in agreement with the concept that propensity to oxidation is increased by essential hypertension and anti-oxLDL Abs may be protective and potential biomarkers for the follow-up of hypertension treatment.