Forecast calibration and combination: a simple Bayesian approach for ENSO

This study presents a new simple approach for combining empirical with raw (i.e., not bias corrected) coupled model ensemble forecasts in order to make more skillful interval forecasts of ENSO. A Bayesian normal model has been used to combine empirical and raw coupled model December SST Niño-3.4 index forecasts started at the end of the preceding July (5-month lead time). The empirical forecasts were obtained by linear regression between December and the preceding July Niño-3.4 index values over the period 1950–2001. Coupled model ensemble forecasts for the period 1987–99 were provided by ECMWF, as part of the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) project. Empirical and raw coupled model ensemble forecasts alone have similar mean absolute error forecast skill score, compared to climatological forecasts, of around 50% over the period 1987–99. The combined forecast gives an increased skill score of 74% and provides a well-calibrated and reliable estimate of forecast uncertainty.

Combining competition from Lolium perenne and an insect-fungus combination to control Rumex obtusifolius seedlings

Although adult Rumex obtusifolius are problematic weeds, their seedlings are poor competitors against Lolium perenne, particularly in established swards. We investigated the possibility of using this weakness to augment control of R. obtusifolius seedlings with combinations of Gastrophysa viridula (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) and the rust fungus Uromyces rumicis. Rumex obtusifolius seedlings were grown in competition with L. perenne sown at different rates and times after R. obtusifolius: they competed successfully with L. perenne when sown 21 days before the grass. Sowing both species at the same time resulted in a dominant grass sward, with R. obtusifolius becoming dominant when sown 42 days prior to L. perenne. Grass sowing rate had no effect on R. obtusifolius growth or biomass. A second experiment investigated how competition from L. perenne sown 21 days after R. obtusifolius combined with damage from G. viridula and/or U. rumicis (applied at either the 3-4- or 10-13-leaf stage, or at both stages) affected the growth and final biomass of R. obtusifolius. Beetle grazing at the latter leaf stage was the only treatment that reduced R. obtusifolius biomass, although rust infection at the earlier application led to an increase in shoot and root weight. The results are discussed in terms of the potential for use of these agents in the field.

Evaluation of data for atmospheric models: master equation/RRKM calculations on the combination reaction, BrO+NO2 -> BrONO2, a conundrum

Experimental data for the title reaction were modeled using master equation (ME)/RRKM methods based on the Multiwell suite of programs. The starting point for the exercise was the empirical fitting provided by the NASA (Sander, S. P.; Finlayson-Pitts, B. J.; Friedl, R. R.; Golden, D. M.; Huie, R. E.; Kolb, C. E.; Kurylo, M. J.; Molina, M. J.; Moortgat, G. K.; Orkin, V. L.; Ravishankara, A. R. Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Atmospheric Studies, Evaluation Number 15; Jet Propulsion Laboratory: Pasadena, California, 2006)(1) and IUPAC (Atkinson, R.; Baulch, D. L.; Cox, R. A.: R. F. Hampson, J.; Kerr, J. A.; Rossi, M. J.; Troe, J. J. Phys. Chem. Ref. Data. 2000, 29, 167) 2 data evaluation panels, which represents the data in the experimental pressure ranges rather well. Despite the availability of quite reliable parameters for these calculations (molecular vibrational frequencies (Parthiban, S.; Lee, T. J. J. Chem. Phys. 2000, 113, 145)3 and a. value (Orlando, J. J.; Tyndall, G. S. J. Phys. Chem. 1996, 100,. 19398)4 of the bond dissociation energy, D-298(BrO-NO2) = 118 kJ mol(-1), corresponding to Delta H-0(circle) = 114.3 kJ mol(-1) at 0 K) and the use of RRKM/ME methods, fitting calculations to the reported data or the empirical equations was anything but straightforward. Using these molecular parameters resulted in a discrepancy between the calculations and the database of rate constants of a factor of ca. 4 at, or close to, the low-pressure limit. Agreement between calculation and experiment could be achieved in two ways, either by increasing Delta H-0(circle) to an unrealistically high value (149.3 kJ mol(-1)) or by increasing , the average energy transferred in a downward collision, to an unusually large value (> 5000 cm(-1)). The discrepancy could also be reduced by making all overall rotations fully active. The system was relatively insensitive to changing the moments of inertia in the transition state to increase the centrifugal effect. The possibility of involvement of BrOONO was tested and cannot account for the difficulties of fitting the data.

Relationship between sublethal injury and microbial inactivation by the combination of high hydrostatic pressure and citral or tert-butyl hydroquinone

The aim was to investigate (i) the occurrence of sublethal injury in Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli, and Saccharomyces cerevisiae after high hydrostatic pressure (HHP) treatment as a function of the treatment medium pH and composition and (ii) the relationship between the occurrence of sublethal injury and the inactivating effect of a combination of HHP and two antimicrobial compounds, tert-butyl hydroquinone (TBHQ) and citral. The three microorganisms showed a high proportion of sublethally injured cells (up to 99.99% of the surviving population) after HHP. In E. coli and L. monocytogenes, the extent of inactivation and sublethal injury depended on the pH and the composition of the treatment medium, whereas in S. cerevisiae, inactivation and sublethal injury were independent of medium pH or composition under the conditions tested. TBHQ alone was not lethal to E. coli or L. monocytogenes but acted synergistically with HHP and 24-h refrigeration, resulting in a viability decrease of >5 log(10) cycles of both organisms. The antimicrobial effect of citral depended on the microorganism and the treatment medium pH. Acting alone for 24 h under refrigeration, 1,000 ppm of citral caused a reduction of 5 log(10) cycles of E. coli at pH 7.0 and almost 3 log(10) cycles of L. monocytogenes at pH 4.0. The combination of citral and HHP also showed a synergistic effect. Our results have confirmed that the detection of sublethal injury after HHP may contribute to the identification of those treatment conditions under which HHP may act synergistically with other preserving processes.

Effect of small, acid-soluble proteins on spore resistance and germination under a combination of pressure and heat treatment

To find the range of pressure required for effective high-pressure inactivation of bacterial spores and to investigate the role of alpha/beta-type small, acid-soluble proteins (SASP) in spores under pressure treatment, mild heat was combined with pressure (room temperature to 65 degrees C and 100 to 500 MPa) and applied to wild-type and SASP-alpha(-/)beta(-) Bacillus subtilis spores. On the one hand, more than 4 log units of wild-type spores were reduced after pressurization at 100 to 500 MPa and 65 degrees C, On the other hand, the number of surviving mutant spores decreased by 2 log units at 100 MPa and by more than 5 log units at 500 MPa. At 500 MPa and 65 degrees C, both wild-type and mutant spore survivor counts were reduced by 5 log units. Interestingly, pressures of 100, 200, and 300 MPa at 65 degrees C inactivated wild-type SASP-alpha(+)/beta(+) spores more than mutant SASP-alpha(-)/beta(-) spores, and this was attributed to less pressure-induced germination in SASP-alpha(-)/beta(-) spores than in wild-type SASP-alpha(+)/beta(+) spores. However, there was no difference in the pressure resistance between SASP-alpha(+)/beta(+) and SASP-alpha(-)/beta(-) spores at 100 MPa and ambient temperature (approximately 22 degrees C) for 30 min. A combination of high pressure and high temperature is very effective for inducing spore germination, and then inactivation of the germinated spore occurs because of the heat treatment. This study showed that alpha/beta-type SASP play a role in spore inactivation by increasing spore germination under 100 to 300 MPa at high temperature.

A new blind equalization algorithm based on convex combination

The convex combination is a mathematic approach to keep the advantages of its component algorithms for better performance. In this paper, we employ convex combination in the blind equalization to achieve better blind equalization. By combining the blind constant modulus algorithm (CMA) and decision directed algorithm, the combinative blind equalization (CBE) algorithm can retain the advantages from both. Furthermore, the convergence speed of the CBE algorithm is faster than both of its component equalizers. Simulation results are also given to verify the proposed algorithm.

Self-assembled healable materials through a combination of pi-pi stacking and hydrogen bonding

The discovery of polymers with stimuli responsive physical properties is a rapidly expanding area of research. At the forefront of the field are self-healing polymers, which, when fractured can regain the mechanical properties of the material either autonomically, or in response to a stimulus. It has long been known that it is possible to promote healing in conventional thermoplastics by heating the fracture zone above the Tg of the polymer under pressure. This process requires reptation and subsequent re-entanglement of macromolecules across the fracture void, which serves to bridge, and ‘heal’ the crack. The timescale for this mechanism is highly dependent on the molecular weight of the polymer being studied. This process is in contrast to that required to affect healing in supramolecular polymers such as the plasticised, hydrogen bonded elastomer reported by Leibler et al. The disparity in bond energies between the non-covalent and covalent bonds within supramolecular polymers results in fractures propagating through scission of the comparatively weak supramolecular interactions, rather than through breaking the stronger, covalent bonds. Thus, during the healing process the macromolecules surrounding the fracture site only need sufficient energy to re-engage their supramolecular interactions in order to regenerate the strength of the pristine material. Herein we describe the design, synthesis and optimization of a new class of supramolecular polymer blends that harness the reversible nature of pi-pi stacking and hydrogen bonding interactions to produce self-supporting films with facile healable characteristics.

On combination of SMOTE and particle swarm optimization based radial basis function classifier for imbalanced problems

The combination of the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) and the radial basis function (RBF) classifier is proposed to deal with classification for imbalanced two-class data. In order to enhance the significance of the small and specific region belonging to the positive class in the decision region, the SMOTE is applied to generate synthetic instances for the positive class to balance the training data set. Based on the over-sampled training data, the RBF classifier is constructed by applying the orthogonal forward selection procedure, in which the classifier structure and the parameters of RBF kernels are determined using a particle swarm optimization algorithm based on the criterion of minimizing the leave-one-out misclassification rate. The experimental results on both simulated and real imbalanced data sets are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm.

Geostatistical radar-raingauge combination with nonparametric correlograms: methodological considerations and application in Switzerland

Modelling spatial covariance is an essential part of all geostatistical methods. Traditionally, parametric semivariogram models are fit from available data. More recently, it has been suggested to use nonparametric correlograms obtained from spatially complete data fields. Here, both estimation techniques are compared. Nonparametric correlograms are shown to have a substantial negative bias. Nonetheless, when combined with the sample variance of the spatial field under consideration, they yield an estimate of the semivariogram that is unbiased for small lag distances. This justifies the use of this estimation technique in geostatistical applications. Various formulations of geostatistical combination (Kriging) methods are used here for the construction of hourly precipitation grids for Switzerland based on data from a sparse realtime network of raingauges and from a spatially complete radar composite. Two variants of Ordinary Kriging (OK) are used to interpolate the sparse gauge observations. In both OK variants, the radar data are only used to determine the semivariogram model. One variant relies on a traditional parametric semivariogram estimate, whereas the other variant uses the nonparametric correlogram. The variants are tested for three cases and the impact of the semivariogram model on the Kriging prediction is illustrated. For the three test cases, the method using nonparametric correlograms performs equally well or better than the traditional method, and at the same time offers great practical advantages. Furthermore, two variants of Kriging with external drift (KED) are tested, both of which use the radar data to estimate nonparametric correlograms, and as the external drift variable. The first KED variant has been used previously for geostatistical radar-raingauge merging in Catalonia (Spain). The second variant is newly proposed here and is an extension of the first. Both variants are evaluated for the three test cases as well as an extended evaluation period. It is found that both methods yield merged fields of better quality than the original radar field or fields obtained by OK of gauge data. The newly suggested KED formulation is shown to be beneficial, in particular in mountainous regions where the quality of the Swiss radar composite is comparatively low. An analysis of the Kriging variances shows that none of the methods tested here provides a satisfactory uncertainty estimate. A suitable variable transformation is expected to improve this.

A largely intolerable combination of two mainly unconnected texts: 1. Description of the Barefoot in the Head event, at BHQU, NY, 12/11/09; 2. Fictioning and the End

An evaluation of the 'Barefoot in the Head' performance event, I co-curated with Alun Rowlands and Mark Beasley, at Bruce High Quality Foundation University, New York, as part of Performa 09 New York, 12 November 2009 - an examination of my own performance and the other performances occurring simultaneously at the event.

Combination of moderate vacuum frying with high vacuum drainage: relationship between process conditions and oil uptake

This paper explores the possibility of combining moderate vacuum frying followed by post-frying high vacuum application during the oil drainage stage, with the aim to reduce oil content in potato chips. Potato slices were initially vacuum fried under two operating conditions (140 °C, 20 kPa and 162 °C, 50.67 kPa) until the moisture content reached 10 and 15 % (wet basis), prior to holding the samples in the head space under high vacuum level (1.33 kPa). This two-stage process was found to lower significantly the amount of oil taken up by potato chips by an amount as high as 48 %, compared to drainage at the same pressure as the frying pressure. Reducing the pressure value to 1.33 kPa reduced the water saturation temperature (11 °C), causing the product to continuously lose moisture during the course of drainage. Continuous release of water vapour prevented the occluded surface oil from penetrating into the product structure and released it from the surface of the product. When frying and drainage occurred at the same pressure, the temperature of the product fell below the water saturation temperature soon after it was lifted out of the oil, which resulted in the oil getting sucked into the product. Thus, lowering the pressure after frying to a value well below the frying pressure is a promising method to lower oil uptake by the product.