Identification of putative 1p36 tumor suppressor genes involved in oligodendroglioma development

Oligodendrogliomas are primary neoplasms of the central nervous system (CNS). One of the most common and characteristic chromosomal abnormalities observed in oligodendroglioma is allelic loss of 1p (Reifenberger et al., 1994; Bello et al., 1995). Since 1p loss has been reported for both well-differentiated and anaplastic oligodendroglioma, it is believed to occur early in tumor development (Bello et al., 1995). This allelic loss also has clinical significance, for oligodendroglioma patients with 1p loss generally respond significantly better to combination chemotherapy and have longer average survival than do oligodendroglioma patients without 1p loss (Cairncross et al., 1998). To date, no genes on 1p have been implicated as essential to the development or treatment response of oligodendroglioma. In order to localize and/or identify a gene involved in oligodendroglioma development, I tested 170 oligodendrogliomas for deletions of 1p and tested 26 tumors for differential expression of genes in the region of 1p36. Evidence obtained from these methods implicated two genes, SHREW1 and the gene encoding DNA fragmentation factor beta (DFFB). The function for the SHREW1 locus is currently not well known, but preliminary data suggests that it a novel member of adherens junctions. The DFFB gene is an enhancer for apoptosis. Thus, both SHREW1 and DFFB may be candidates for an oligodendroglioma tumor suppressor. Mutational analysis of both genes did not uncover any mutations. Future studies will evaluate other mechanisms that may be responsible for inactivation of these genes in oligodendrogliomas. ^

DNA vaccination against the novel tumor antigen, MUC18, for the therapy of metastatic melanoma

Melanoma patients with metastases have a very low survival rate and limited treatment options. Therefore, the targeting of melanoma cells when they begin to invade and metastasize would be beneficial. A specific adhesion molecule that is upregulated at the vertical growth phase is the melanoma cell adhesion molecule (MCAM/MUC18). MUC18 is expressed in late primary and metastatic melanoma with little or no expression on normal melanocytes. MUC18 has been demonstrated to have a role in the progression and metastasis of human melanoma. We utilized the alphavirus-based DNA plasmid, SINCp, encoding full length human MUC18 for vaccination against B16F10 murine melanoma cells expressing human MUC18. The alphavirus-based DNA plasmid leads to the expression of large quantities of heterologous protein as well as danger signals due to dsRNA intermediates produced during viral replication. In a preventative primary tumor model and an experimental tumor model, mice vaccinated against human MUC18 had decreased tumor incidence and reduced lung metastases when challenged with B16F10 murine melanoma cells expressing human MUC18. In a therapeutic tumor model, vaccination against human MUC18 reduced the tumor burden in mice with pre-existing lung metastases but did not have a significant effect on therapeutic vaccination in a primary tumor model. We next cloned murine MUC18 into SINCp for use in determining the efficacy of vaccination against murine MUC18 in a syngeneic animal model. Mice were vaccinated and challenged in a primary tumor and experimental metastasis model. In both models, vaccination significantly reduced tumor incidence and lung metastases. Humoral and cell-mediated responses were then determined. Flow cytometry and immunohistochemistry showed that specific antibodies were developed from vaccination against both human and murine MUC18. IgG2a antibody isotype was also developed indicating a Th1 type response. ELISPOT results showed that mice vaccinated against human MUC18 created a specific T cell response to targets expressing human MUC18. Mice vaccinated against murine MUC18 raised specific effector cells against target cells expressing murine MUC18 in a cell killing assay. These results indicate that vaccination against MUC18 developed specific immune responses against MUC18 and were effective in controlling tumor growth in melanoma expressing MUC18. ^

Risk of second primary tumors following treatment of non-small cell lung cancer

Background. The rise in survival rates along with more detailed follow-up using sophisticated imaging studies among non-small lung cancer (NSCLC) patients has led to an increased risk of second primary tumors (SPT) among these cases. Population and hospital based studies of lung cancer patients treated between 1974 and 1996 have found an increasing risk over time for the development of all cancers following treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). During this time the primary modalities for treatment were surgery alone, radiation alone, surgery and post-operative radiation therapy, or combinations of chemotherapy and radiation (sequentially or concurrently). There is limited information in the literature about the impact of treatment modalities on the development of second primary tumors in these patients. ^ Purpose. To investigate the impact of treatment modalities on the risk of second primary tumors in patients receiving treatment with curative intent for non-metastatic (Stage I–III) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). ^ Methods. The hospital records of 1,095 NSCLC patients who were diagnosed between 1980–2001 and received treatment with curative intent at M.D. Anderson Cancer Center with surgery alone, radiation alone (with a minimum total radiation dose of at least 45Gy), surgery and post-operative radiation therapy, radiation therapy in combination with chemotherapy or surgery in combination with chemotherapy and radiation were retrospectively reviewed. A second primary malignancy was be defined as any tumor histologically different from the initial cancer, or of another anatomic location, or a tumor of the same location and histology as the initial tumor having an interval between cancers of at least five years. Only primary tumors occurring after treatment for NSCLC will qualified as second primary tumors for this study. ^ Results. The incidence of second primary tumor was 3.3%/year and the rate increased over time following treatment. The type of NSCLC treatment was not found to have a striking effect upon SPT development. Increased rates were observed in the radiation only and chemotherapy plus radiation treatment groups; but, these increases did not exceed expected random variation. Higher radiation treatment dose, patient age and weight loss prior to index NSCLC treatment were associated with higher SPT development. ^

Preclinical modeling of multi-drug cancer therapies

Anticancer drugs typically are administered in the clinic in the form of mixtures, sometimes called combinations. Only in rare cases, however, are mixtures approved as drugs. Rather, research on mixtures tends to occur after single drugs have been approved. The goal of this research project was to develop modeling approaches that would encourage rational preclinical mixture design. To this end, a series of models were developed. First, several QSAR classification models were constructed to predict the cytotoxicity, oral clearance, and acute systemic toxicity of drugs. The QSAR models were applied to a set of over 115,000 natural compounds in order to identify promising ones for testing in mixtures. Second, an improved method was developed to assess synergistic, antagonistic, and additive effects between drugs in a mixture. This method, dubbed the MixLow method, is similar to the Median-Effect method, the de facto standard for assessing drug interactions. The primary difference between the two is that the MixLow method uses a nonlinear mixed-effects model to estimate parameters of concentration-effect curves, rather than an ordinary least squares procedure. Parameter estimators produced by the MixLow method were more precise than those produced by the Median-Effect Method, and coverage of Loewe index confidence intervals was superior. Third, a model was developed to predict drug interactions based on scores obtained from virtual docking experiments. This represents a novel approach for modeling drug mixtures and was more useful for the data modeled here than competing approaches. The model was applied to cytotoxicity data for 45 mixtures, each composed of up to 10 selected drugs. One drug, doxorubicin, was a standard chemotherapy agent and the others were well-known natural compounds including curcumin, EGCG, quercetin, and rhein. Predictions of synergism/antagonism were made for all possible fixed-ratio mixtures, cytotoxicities of the 10 best-scoring mixtures were tested, and drug interactions were assessed. Predicted and observed responses were highly correlated (r2 = 0.83). Results suggested that some mixtures allowed up to an 11-fold reduction of doxorubicin concentrations without sacrificing efficacy. Taken together, the models developed in this project present a general approach to rational design of mixtures during preclinical drug development. ^

Modifier genes and susceptibility to colorectal cancer in individuals with Lynch syndrome

Lynch syndrome, is caused by inherited germ-line mutations in the DNA mismatch repair genes resulting in cancers at an early age, predominantly colorectal (CRC) and endometrial cancers. Though the median age at onset for CRC is about 45 years, disease penetrance varies suggesting that cancer susceptibility may be modified by environmental or other low-penetrance genes. Genetic variation due to polymorphisms in genes encoding metabolic enzymes can influence carcinogenesis by alterations in the expression and activity level of the enzymes. Variation in MTHFR, an important folate metabolizing enzyme can affect DNA methylation and DNA synthesis and variation in xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes can affect the metabolism and clearance of carcinogens, thus modifying cancer risk. ^ This study examined a retrospective cohort of 257 individuals with Lynch syndrome, for polymorphisms in genes encoding xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes-- CYP1A1 (I462V and MspI), EPHX1 (H139R and Y113H), GSTP1 (I105V and A114V), GSTM1 and GSTT1 (deletions) and folate metabolizing enzyme--MTHFR (C677T and A1298C). In addition, a series of 786 cases of sporadic CRC were genotyped for CYP1A1 I462V and EPHX1 Y113H to assess gene-gene interaction and gene-environment interaction with smoking in a case-only analysis. ^ Prominent findings of this study were that the presence of an MTHFR C677T variant allele was associated with a 4 year later age at onset for CRC on average and a reduced age-associated risk for developing CRC (Hazard ratio: 0.55; 95% confidence interval: 0.36–0.85) compared to the absence of any variant allele in individuals with Lynch syndrome. Similarly, Lynch syndrome individuals heterozygous for CYP1A1 I462V A>G polymorphism developed CRC an average of 4 years earlier and were at a 78% increased age-associated risk (Hazard ratio for AG relative to AA: 1.78; 95% confidence interval: 1.16-2.74) than those with the homozygous wild-type genotype. Therefore these two polymorphisms may be additional susceptibility factors for CRC in Lynch syndrome. In the case-only analysis, evidence of gene-gene interaction was seen between CYP1A1 I462V and EPHX1 Y113H and between EPHX1 Y113H and smoking suggesting that genetic and environmental factors may interact to increase sporadic CRC risk. Implications of these findings are the ability to identify subsets of high-risk individuals for targeted prevention and intervention. ^

Clinical relevance of polymorphic DNA copy number variation (CNV) in African American women with stage I-II breast cancer

Objectives. The chief goal of this study was to analyze copy number variation (CNV) in breast cancer tumors from 25 African American women with early stage breast cancer (BC) using molecular inversion probes (MIP) in order to: (1) compare the degree of CNV in tumors compared to normal lymph nodes, and (2) determine whether gains and/or losses of genes in specific chromosomes differ between pathologic subtypes of breast cancer defined by known prognostic markers, (3) determine whether gains/losses in CN are associated with known oncogenes or tumor suppressor genes, and (4) determine whether increased gains/losses in CN for specific chromosomes were associated with differences in breast cancer recurrence. ^ Methods. Twenty to 37 nanograms of DNA extracted from 25 formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tumor samples and matched normal lymph nodes were added to individual tubes. Oligonucleotide probes with recognition sequences at each terminus were hybridized with a genomic target sequence to form a circular structure. Probes are released from genomic DNA obtained from FFPE samples, and those which have been correctly "circularized" in the proper allele/nucleotide reaction combination are amplified using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) primers. Amplicons were fluorescently labeled and the tag sequences released from the genome homology regions by treatment with uracil-N-glycosylase to cleave the probe at the site where uracils are present, and detected using a complementary tag array developed by Affymetrix. ^ Results. Analysis of CN gains and losses from tumors and normal tissues showed marked differences in tumors with numerous chromosomes affected. Similar changes were not observed in normal lymph nodes. When tumors were stratified into four groups based on expression or lack of expression of the estrogen receptor and HER2/neu, distinct patterns of CNV for different chromosomes were observed. Gains or losses in CN for specific chromosomes correlated with amplifications/deletions of particular oncogenes or tumor suppressor genes (i.e. such as found on chromosome 17) known to be associated with aggressive tumor phenotype and poor prognosis. There was a trend for increases in CN observed for chromosome 17 to correlate inversely with time to recurrence of BC (p=0.14 for trend). CNV was also observed for chromosomes 5, 8, 10, 11, and 16, which are known sites for several breast cancer susceptibility alleles. ^ Conclusions. This study is the first to validate the MIP technique, to correlate differences in gene expression with known prognostic tumor markers, and to correlate significant increases/decreases in CN with known tumor markers associated with prognosis. The results of this study may have far reaching public health implications towards identifying new high-risk groups based on genomic differences in CNP, both with respect to prognosis and response to therapy, and to eventually identify new therapeutic targets for prevention and treatment of this disease. ^

Diabetes genes and risk of prostate cancer in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study

Prostate cancer (PrCa) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, yet the etiology remains uncertain. Meta-analyses show that PrCa risk is reduced by 16% in men with type 2 diabetes (T2D), but the mechanism is unknown. Recent genome-wide association studies and meta-analyses have found single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that consistently predict T2D risk. We evaluated associations of incident PrCa with 14 T2D SNPs in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. From 1987-2000, there were 397 incident PrCa cases ascertained from state or local cancer registries among 6,642 men (1,560 blacks and 5,082 whites) aged 45-64 years at baseline. Genotypes were determined by TaqMan assay. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between PrCa and increasing number of T2D risk-raising alleles for individual SNPs and for genetic risk scores (GRS) comprised of the number of T2D risk-raising alleles across SNPs. Two-way gene-gene interactions were evaluated with likelihood ratio tests. Using additive genetic models, the T2D risk-raising allele was associated with significantly reduced risk of PrCa for IGF2BP2 rs4402960 (hazard ratio [HR]=0.79; P=0.07 among blacks only), SLC2A2 rs5400 (race-adjusted HR=0.85; P=0.05) and UCP2 rs660339 (race-adjusted HR=0.84; P=0.02), but significantly increased risk of PrCa for CAPN10 rs3792267 (race-adjusted HR=1.20; P=0.05). No other SNPs were associated with PrCa using an additive genetic model. However, at least one copy of the T2D risk-raising allele for TCF7L2 rs7903146 was associated with reduced PrCa risk using a dominant genetic model (race-adjusted HR=0.79; P=0.03). These results imply that the T2D-PrCa association may be partly due to shared genetic variation, but these results should be verified since multiple tests were performed. When the combined, additive effects of these SNPs were tested using a GRS, there was nearly a 10% reduction in risk of PrCa per T2D risk-raising allele (race-adjusted HR=0.92; P=0.02). SNPs in IGF2BP2, KCNJ11 and SLC2A2 were also involved in multiple synergistic gene-gene interactions on a multiplicative scale. In conclusion, it appears that the T2D-PrCa association may be due, in part, to common genetic variation. Further knowledge of T2D gene-PrCa mechanisms may improve understanding of PrCa etiology and may inform PrCa prevention and treatment.^

Matrix metalloproteinase-1 as a prognosticator in malignant glioma

The overall purpose of this study was to assess the relationship between the promoter region polymorphism (-2607 1G/2G) of matrix metalloproteinase-1 (MMP-1) polymorphism and outcome in brain tumor patients diagnosed with a primary brain tumor between 1994 and 2000 at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center. The MMP-1 polymorphism was genotyped for all brain tumor patients who participated in the Family Brain Tumor Study and for whom blood samples were available. Relevant covariates were abstracted from medical records for all cases from the original protocol, including information on demographics, tumor histology, therapy and outcome was obtained. The hypothesis was that brain tumor patients with the 2G allele have a poorer prognosis and shorter survival than brain tumor patients with the 1G allele. ^ Experimental Design: Genetic variants for the MMP-1 enzyme were determined by a polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism assay. Comparison was made between the overall survival for cases with the 2G polymorphism and overall survival for cases with the 1G polymorphism using multivariable Cox Proportional-Hazard analysis, controlling for age, sex, Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS), extent of surgery, tumor histology and treatment received. Kaplan-Meier and Cox Proportional-Hazard analyses were utilized to assess if the MMP-1 polymorphisms were related to overall survival. Results: Overall survival was not statistically significantly different between the 2G allele brain tumor patients and the 1G allele patients and there was no statistically significant difference between tumor types. ^ Conclusions: No association was found between MMP-1 polymorphisms and survival in patients with malignant gliomas. ^

A systematic analysis of INO80 in DNA replication

ATP-dependent chromatin remodeling has been shown to be critical for transcription and DNA repair. However, the involvement of ATP-dependent chromatin remodeling in DNA replication remains poorly defined. Interestingly, we found that the INO80 chromatin-remodeling complex is directly involved in the DNA damage tolerance pathways activated during DNA replication. DNA damage tolerance is important for genomic stability and is controlled by formation of either mono-ubiquitinated or multi-ubiquitinated PCNA, which respectively induce error prone or error-free replication bypass of the lesions. In addition, homologous recombination (HR) mediated by the Rad51 pathway is also involved in the DNA damage tolerance pathways. ^ We found that INO80 is specifically recruited to replication origins during S phase in a genome-wide fashion. In addition, DNA combing analysis shows INO80 is required for the resumption of replication at stalled forks induced by methyl methane-sulfonate (MMS). Mechanistically, we find that INO80 is required for PCNA ubiquitination as well as for Rad51 mediated processing of replication forks after MMS treatment. Furthermore, chromatin immunoprecipitation at specific ARSs indicates INO80 is necessary for Rad18 and Rad51 recruitment to replication forks after MMS treatment. Moreover, 2D gel analysis shows INO80 is necessary to process Rad51 mediated intermediates at impeded replication forks. ^ In conclusion, our findings establish a novel role of a chromatin-remodeling complex in DNA damage tolerance pathways and suggest that chromatin remodeling is fundamentally important to ensure faithful replication of DNA and genome stability in eukaryotes. ^

Establishment of a complex inflammatory and protumorigenic microenvironment in mouse pancreas through cyclooxygenase-2 overexpression

Chronic inflammation is an established risk factor in the pathogenesis of many cancers. Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, a malignancy with a particularly dismal prognosis, is no exception. Cyclooxygenase-2, a key enzyme induced by tissue injury, has a critical role in the generation of bioactive lipids known as prostaglandins. COX-2 overexpression is a frequent finding in pancreatic cancer, chronic pancreatitis and pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasias. To explore mechanisms through which chronic inflammation establishes and maintains a protumorigenic environment, we designed a mouse model overexpressing COX-2 in pancreatic parenchyma (BK5.COX-2 mice). We discovered that constitutive expression of COX-2 has a number of important sequelae, including upregulation of additional eicosanoid-generating enzymes and proinflammatory cytokines. Many of these molecular alterations precede the onset of significant histopathological changes. Increased levels of prostaglandins E2, D2, and F2α, 5-, 12-, and 15-hydroxyeiosatetraenoic acid (HETEs) were documented in tumors and pancreata of younger transgenic mice. Using a TaqMan™ Mouse Immune Panel, we detected elevated mRNAs for a number of proinflammatory cytokines (e.g., TNFα, IL-1β, IL-6). ^ Histological examination revealed early changes in the pancreas with similarities to human chronic pancreatitis, including loss of acinar cells, appearance of metaplastic ducts, and increased deposition of stroma. As the lesions progress, features typical of dysplastic and neoplastic cells emerged within the metaplastic ductal complexes, including cellular and nuclear atypia, crowding of cells, and loss of normal tissue architecture. The amount of fibroinflammatory stroma increased considerably; numerous small vessels were evident. A number of immunocytes from both the myeloid and lymphoid lineages were identified in transgenic pancreata. Neutrophils were the earliest to infiltrate, followed shortly by macrophages and mast cells. B and T cells generally began to appear by 8–12 weeks, and organized aggregates of lymphoid cells were often found in advanced lesions. ^ We tested the efficacy of several chemopreventive agents in this model, including celecoxib, a COX-2 selective inhibitor, pentoxifylline, a cytokine inhibitor, curcumin, a polyphenol with antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties, and GW2974, a dual EGFR/ErbB2 inhibitor. Effects on lesion development were modest in the GW2974 and pentoxifylline treated groups, but significant prevention effects were observed with curcumin and celecoxib. ^

Shigellosis in Hidalgo County, Texas 2005--2009: A descriptive study

Shigellosis is a communicable disease harbored primarily by humans. The low infective dose, no vaccine availability, and mild or asymptomatic nature of disease has prevented eradication of Shigella in the United States. In addition, the lack of water and sewage infrastructures which normally contribute to the spread of disease in developing countries, for the most part, is a non-issue in the U.S. making surveillance and risk factor identification important prevention and control measures utilized to reduce the incidence rates of Shigellosis.^ The purpose of this study was to describe the Shigellosis disease burden among the Hidalgo County, Texas population during the 2005-2009 study period and compare these findings with national data available. The potential identification and publication of a health disparity in the form of increased Shigellosis rates among Hidalgo County residents when compared to national rates, especially age-specific rates, are intended to generate public health attention and public health action that will address this issue.^ There were 1,007 confirmed Shigellosis cases reported in Hidalgo County, Texas. An overwhelming majority (79%) of the Shigellosis cases during this time frame occurred in children less than ten years of age. Over the age of 10 through the age of 39, females constituted the majority of cases. Age-specific rates for children four years of age and younger were compared to national rates. The rates for Hidalgo County were higher at 9.2 and 1.8 cases for every one case reported nationally in 2005 and 2006, respectively. The total crude rates of Shigellosis were also higher than the rates available from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) of CDC’s Emerging Infections Program from 2005-2009. As a result, compared to the FoodNet surveillance rates, Hidalgo County experienced above average rates of Shigellosis throughout the study period. The majority of cases were identified in young children under the age of ten.^ The information gathered in this analysis could be used to implement and monitor infection control measures such as hand washing education at facilities that tend to the groups identified at higher risk of infection. In addition, the higher burden of disease found in Hidalgo County requires further study to determine if there are factors associated with an increased risk of Shigellosis in this community and other border communities along the U.S.-Mexico border exist.^

Human DNA ligase and DNA polymerase as molecular targets for heavy metals and anticancer drugs

DNA ligase and DNA polymerase play important roles in DNA replication, repair, and recombination. Frequencies of spontaneous and chemical- and physical-induced mutations are correlated to the fidelity of DNA replication. This dissertation elucidates the mechanisms of the DNA ligation reaction by DNA ligases and demonstrates that human DNA ligase I and DNA polymerase $\alpha$ are the molecular targets for two metal ions, Zn$\sp{2+}$ and Cd$\sp{2+},$ and an anticancer drug, F-ara-ATP.^ Human DNA ligases were purified to homogeneity and their AMP binding domains were mapped. Although their AMP-binding domains are similar, there could be difference between the two ligases in their DNA binding domains.^ The formation of the AMP-DNA intermediate and the successive ligation reaction by human DNA ligases were analyzed. Both reactions showed their substrate specificity for ligases I and II, required Mg2+, and were inhibited by ATP.^ A protein inhibitor from HeLa cells and specific for human DNA ligase I but not ligase II and T4 ligase was discovered. It reversibly inhibited DNA ligation activity but not the AMP-binding activity due to the formation of a reversible ligase I-inhibitor complex.^ F-ara-ATP inhibited human DNA ligase I activity by competing with ATP for the AMP-binding site of DNA ligase I, forming a ligase I-F-ara-AMP complex, as well as when it was incorporated at 3$\sp\prime$-terminus of DNA nick by DNA polymerase $\alpha.$^ All steps of the DNA ligation reaction were inhibited by Zn$\sp{2+}$ and Cd$\sp{2+}$ in a concentration-dependent manner. Both ions did not show the ability to change the fidelity of DNA ligation reaction catalyzed by human DNA ligase I. However, Zn$\sp{2+}$ and Cd$\sp{2+}$ showed their contradictory effects on the fidelity of the reaction by human DNA polymerase $\alpha.$ Zn$\sp{2+}$ decreased the frequency of misinsertion but less affected that of mispair extension. On the contrary, Cd$\sp{2+}$ increased the frequencies of both misinsertion and mispair extension at very low concentration. Our data provided strong evidence in the molecular mechanisms for the mutagenicity of zinc and cadmium, and were comparable with the results previously reported. ^

A Bayesian analysis for spatial processes with application to mapping

In geographical epidemiology, maps of disease rates and disease risk provide a spatial perspective for researching disease etiology. For rare diseases or when the population base is small, the rate and risk estimates may be unstable. Empirical Bayesian (EB) methods have been used to spatially smooth the estimates by permitting an area estimate to "borrow strength" from its neighbors. Such EB methods include the use of a Gamma model, of a James-Stein estimator, and of a conditional autoregressive (CAR) process. A fully Bayesian analysis of the CAR process is proposed. One advantage of this fully Bayesian analysis is that it can be implemented simply by using repeated sampling from the posterior densities. Use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique such as Gibbs sampler was not necessary. Direct resampling from the posterior densities provides exact small sample inferences instead of the approximate asymptotic analyses of maximum likelihood methods (Clayton & Kaldor, 1987). Further, the proposed CAR model provides for covariates to be included in the model. A simulation demonstrates the effect of sample size on the fully Bayesian analysis of the CAR process. The methods are applied to lip cancer data from Scotland, and the results are compared. ^

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

A systematic review of personalized therapy in patients with advanced cancer

Background: An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of cancer at the molecular level has led to the development of personalized cancer therapy based on the mutation status of the tumor. Tailoring treatments to genetic signatures has improved treatment outcomes in patients with advanced cancer. We conducted a meta-analysis to provide a quantitative summary of the response to treatment on a phase I clinical trial matched to molecular aberration in patients with advanced solid tumors. ^ Methods: Original studies that reported the results of phase I clinical trials in patients with advanced cancer treated with matched anti-cancer therapies between January 2006 and November 2011 were identified through an extensive search of Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Library databases. Odds Ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated for each study to assess the strength of an association between objective response rate (ORR) and mutation status. Random effects model was used to estimate the pooled OR and their 95% CI was derived. Funnel plot was used to assess publication bias. ^ Results: Thirteen studies published between January 2006 and November 2011that reported on responses to matched phase I clinical trials in patients with advanced cancer were included in the meta-analysis. Nine studies reported on the responses seen in 538 of the 835 patients with driver mutations responsive to therapy and seven studies on the responses observed in 234 of the 306 patients with mutation predictive for negative response. Random effects model was used to estimate pooled OR, which was 7.767(95% CI = 4.199 − 14.366; p-value=0.000) in patients with activating mutations that were responsive to therapy and 0.287 (95% CI = 0.119 − 0.694; p-value=0.009) in patients with mutation predictive of negative response. ^ Conclusion: It is evident from the meta-analysis that somatic mutations present in tumor tissue of patients are predictive of responses to therapy in patients with advanced cancer in phase I setting. Plethora of research and growing evidence base indicate that selection of patients based on mutation analysis of the tumor and personalizing therapy is a step forward in the war against cancer.^