A Bayesian destructive weighted Poisson cure rate model and an application to a cutaneous melanoma data

In this article, we propose a new Bayesian flexible cure rate survival model, which generalises the stochastic model of Klebanov et al. [Klebanov LB, Rachev ST and Yakovlev AY. A stochastic-model of radiation carcinogenesis - latent time distributions and their properties. Math Biosci 1993; 113: 51-75], and has much in common with the destructive model formulated by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)]. In our approach, the accumulated number of lesions or altered cells follows a compound weighted Poisson distribution. This model is more flexible than the promotion time cure model in terms of dispersion. Moreover, it possesses an interesting and realistic interpretation of the biological mechanism of the occurrence of the event of interest as it includes a destructive process of tumour cells after an initial treatment or the capacity of an individual exposed to irradiation to repair altered cells that results in cancer induction. In other words, what is recorded is only the damaged portion of the original number of altered cells not eliminated by the treatment or repaired by the repair system of an individual. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are then used to develop Bayesian inference for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a cutaneous melanoma data set analysed by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)] are presented.

Molecular subtype analysis determines the association of advanced breast cancer in Egypt with favorable biology

Background Prognostic markers and molecular breast cancer subtypes reflect underlying biological tumor behavior and are important for patient management. Compared to Western countries, women in North Africa are less likely to be prognosticated and treated based on well-characterized markers such as the estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR) and Her2. We conducted this study to determine the prevalence of breast cancer molecular subtypes in the North African country of Egypt as a measure of underlying biological characteristics driving tumor manifestations. Methods To determine molecular subtypes we characterized over 200 tumor specimens obtained from Egypt by performing ER, PR, Her2, CK5/6, EGFR and Ki67 immunohistochemistry. Results Our study demonstrated that the Luminal A subtype, associated with favorable prognosis, was found in nearly 45% of cases examined. However, the basal-like subtype, associated with poor prognosis, was found in 11% of cases. These findings are in sharp contrast to other parts of Africa in which the basal-like subtype is over-represented. Conclusions Egyptians appear to have favorable underlying biology, albeit having advanced disease at diagnosis. These data suggest that Egyptians would largely profit from early detection of their disease. Intervention at the public health level, including education on the benefits of early detection is necessary and would likely have tremendous impact on breast cancer outcome in Egypt.

Public preferences of the Great Lakes Environment : a Lake Michigan pilot study

The Great Lakes watershed is home to over 40 million people, and the health of the Great Lakes ecosystem is vital to the overall economic, societal, and environmental health of the U.S. and Canada. However, environmental issues related to them are sometimes overlooked. Policymakers and the public face the challenges of balancing economic benefits with the need to conserve and/or replenish regional natural resources to ensure long term prosperity. From the literature review, nine critical stressors of ecological services were delineated, which include pollution and contamination, agricultural erosion, non-native species, degraded recreational resources, loss of wetlands habitat, climate change, risk of clean water shortage, vanishing sand dunes, and population overcrowding; this list was validated through a series of stakeholder discussions and focus groups in Grand Rapids. Focus groups were conducted in Grand Rapids to examine the awareness of, concern with, and willingness to expend resources on these stressors. Stressors that the respondents have direct contact with tend to be the most important. The focus group results show that concern related to pollution and contamination is much higher than for any of the other stressors. Low responses to climate change result in recommendations for outreach programs.

The impact of cancer on the population of Salvador-Bahia, Brazil

The impact of cancer on the population of Salvador-Bahia, Brazil was studied using mortality data available from the Brazilian National Bureau of Vital Statistics. Average annual site, age, and gender specific and adjusted cancer mortality rates were determined for the years 1977-83 and contrasted with United States cancer mortality rates for the year of 1977. The accuracy of the cancer mortality rates generated by this research was determined by comparing the underlying causes of death as coded on death certificates to pathology reports and to hospital diagnosis of a sample of 966 deaths occurring in Salvador during the year of 1983. To further explore the information available on the death certificate, a population based decedent case control study was used to determine the relationship between type of occupation (proxy for exposure) and mortality by cancer sites known to be occupationally related.^ The rates in Salvador for cancer of the stomach, oral cavity, and biliary passages are, on average, two fold higher than the U.S. rates.^ The death certificate was found to be accurate for 65 percent of the 485 cancer deaths studied. Thirty five histologically confirmed cancer deaths were found in a random sample of 481 deaths from other causes. This means that, approximately 700 more deaths may be lost among the remainder 10,073 death certificates stating a cause other than cancer.^ In addition, despite the known limitations of decedent case-control studies, cancers of the oral cavity OR = 2.44, CI = 1.17-5.09, stomach OR = 2.31, CI = 1.18-4.52, liver OR = 4.06, CI = 1.27-12.99, bladder OR = 6.77, CI = 1.5-30.67, and lymphoma OR = 2.55, CI = 1.04-6.25 had elevated point estimates, for different age strata indicating an association between these cancers and occupations that led to exposure to petroleum and its derivates. ^

Effect of chitin on {\it Vibrio cholerae}

Chitin, N-acetylglucosamine and crude shrimp shell were found to support growth and survival of non-01 and 01 Vibrio cholerae species in aquatic microcosms. Growth was found to be concentration-dependent when the amount of chitin used was within the range of 0.5 g/L to 5 g/L. Toxigenic strains of V. cholerae retained their ability to produce cholera toxin in bay water with chitin as the sole source of nutrient. The amount of chitin solubilized in bay water was shown to depend on salinity but not pH. The inability of V. cholerae to grow in dilute (10%) sewage is reported, and its bearing on the adequacy of the currently used fecal coliform count as a measure of shellfish and shellfish harvesting water quality is discussed. ^

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinsonism-dementia complex of Guam: Descriptive epidemiology, secular trends, and birth cohort effects on incidence, 1950--1989

This study describes the patterns of occurrence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and parkinsonism-dementia complex (PDC) of Guam during 1950-1989. Both ALS and PDC occur with high frequency among the indigenous Chamorro population, first recognized in the early 1950's. Reports in the early 1980's indicated that both ALS and PDC were disappearing, due to a purported reduction in exposure to harmful environmental factors as a result of the dramatic changes in lifestyle that took place after World War II. However, this study provides compelling evidence that ALS and PDC have not disappeared on Guam and that rates for both are higher during 1980-1989 than previously reported.^ The patterns of occurrence for both ALS and PDC overlap in most respects: (1) incidence and mortality are decreasing; (2) median age at onset is increasing; (3) males are at increased risk for developing disease; (4) risk is higher for those residing in the south compared to the non-south; and (5) age-specific incidence is decreasing over time except in the oldest age groups.^ Age-specific incidence of ALS and PDC, separately and together, is generally higher for cohorts born before 1920 than for those born after 1920. A significant birth cohort effect on the incidence of PDC for the 1906-1915 birth cohort was found, but not for ALS and for ALS and PDC together. Whether or not a cohort effect, period effect, or both are associated with incidence of ALS and PDC cannot be determined from the data currently available and will require additional follow-up of individuals born after 1920.^ The epidemiological data amassed over this 40-year period provide evidence that supports an environmental exposure model for disease occurrence as opposed to a simple genetic or infectious disease model. Whether neurodegenerative disease in this population occurs as a consequence of a single exposure or is explained by a multifactorial model such as a genetic predisposition with some environmental interaction is yet to be determined. However, descriptive studies such as this can provide clues concerning timing and location of potential adverse exposures but cannot determine etiology, underscoring the urgent need for analytic studies of ALS and PDC to further investigate existing etiologic hypotheses and to test new hypotheses. ^

Patient satisfaction and nursing staff work satisfaction in an urban public teaching hospital

This study examined the level of patient satisfaction and nursing staff work satisfaction at an urban public hospital in the Southwestern United States. The primary objectives of this study were to determine: (1) the level of overall patient satisfaction and satisfaction with specific dimensions of hospital care; (2) the differences in patient satisfaction according to demographic characteristics (age, gender, ethnicity, and education completed) and predispositional factors (perceived health status, perceived level of pain, prior contact with the hospital, and hospital image) and the relative importance of each variable on patient satisfaction; (3) the level of overall work satisfaction and satisfaction with specific dimensions of work experienced by the medical/surgical nursing staff; (4) the differences in work satisfaction experienced by the nursing staff based on demographic variables (age, gender, ethnicity, and marital status) and professional factors (education completed, staff position, the number of years employed with the hospital, and number of years employed in nursing) and the relative importance of each variable on work satisfaction; and (5) to determine the effect of the nursing work milieu on patient and staff satisfaction.^ The study findings showed that patients experienced a moderate to low level of satisfaction with the dimensions of hospital care (admission process, daily care, information, nursing care, physician care, other hospital staff, living arrangements, and overall care). Of the eight dimensions of care, patients reported a relatively positive level of satisfaction (75 percent or better) with only one dimension: physician care. Ethnicity, perceived health status, and hospital image were significantly related to patient satisfaction. Hispanic patients, those who were in good health, and those who felt the hospital had a good image in their community were most satisfied with hospital care. Patients also reported areas of hospital care that needed the most improvement. Responses included: rude staff, better nursing care, and better communication.^ Findings from the nursing satisfaction survey indicated a low level of satisfaction with the dimensions of work (autonomy, pay, professional status, interaction, task requirements, and organizational policies). Only one dimension of work, professional status, received a mean satisfaction score in the positive range. Additionally, staff members were unanimously dissatisfied with their salaries. Frequently mentioned work-related problems reported by the staff included: staffing shortages, heavy patient loads. and excessive paperwork.^ The nursing milieu appeared to have had a significant effect on the satisfaction levels of patients nursing staff employees. The nursing staff were often short staffed, which increased the patient-to-nurse ratio. Consequently, patients did not receive the amount of attention and care they expected from the nursing staff. Crowded patient rooms allowed for little personal space and privacy. Dissatisfaction with living conditions served to influence patients' attitudes and satisfaction levels. These frustrations were often directed toward their primary caregivers, the nursing staff. Consequently, the nursing milieu appeared to directly affect and influence the satisfaction levels of both patients and staff. (Abstract shortened by UMI). ^

Anthropometric measures as a predictor of cephalopelvic disproportion

This study compared three body measurements, height, hip width (bitrochanteric) and foot length, in 120 Hispanic women who had their first birth by cesarean section (N = 60) or by spontaneous vaginal delivery (N = 60). The objective of the study was to see if there were differences in these measurements that could be useful in predicting cephalopelvic disproportion. Data were collected from two public hospitals in Houston Texas over a 10 month period from December 1994 to October 1995. The statistical technique used to evaluate the measures was discriminant analysis.^ Women who delivered by cesarean section were older, shorter, had shorter feet and delivered heavier infants. There were no differences in the bitrochanteric widths of the women or in the mean gestational age or Apgar scores of the infants.^ Significantly more of the mothers and infants were ill following cesarean section delivery. Maternal illness was usually infection; infant illness was primarily infection or respiratory difficulties.^ Discriminant analysis is a technique which allows for classification and prediction to which group a particular entity will belong given a certain set of variables. Using discriminant analysis, with a probability of cesarean section 50 percent, the best combination to classify who would have a cesarean section was height and hip width, correctly classifying 74.2 percent of those who needed surgery. When the probability of cesarean section was 10 percent and probability of vaginal delivery was 90 percent, the best predictor of who would need operative delivery was height, hip width and age, correctly classifying 56.2 percent. In the population from which the study participants were selected the incidence of cephalopelvic disproportion was low, approximately 1 percent.^ With the technologic assistance available in most of the developed world, it is likely that the further pursuit of different measures and their use would not be of much benefit in attempting to predict and diagnose disproportion. However, in areas of the world where much of obstetrics is "hands on", the availability of technology extremely limited, and the incidence of disproportion larger, the use of anthropometric measures might be useful and of some potential benefit. ^

A study of the relationship between physical activity and cardiovascular fitness and coronary heart disease risk factors in female adolescents

The association of measures of physical activity with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors in children, especially those for atherosclerosis, is unknown. The purpose of this study was to determine the association of physical activity and cardiovascular fitness with blood lipids and lipoproteins in pre-adolescent and adolescent girls.^ The study population was comprised of 131 girls aged 9 to 16 years who participated in the Children's Nutrition Research Center's Adolescent Study. The dependent variables, blood lipids and lipoproteins, were measured by standard techniques. The independent variables were physical activity measured as the difference between total energy expenditure (TEE) and basal metabolic rate (BMR), and cardiovascular fitness, VO$\rm\sb{2max}$(ml/min/kg). TEE was measured by the doubly-labeled water (DLW) method, and BMR by whole-room calorimetry. Cardiovascular fitness, VO$\rm\sb{2max}$(ml/min/kg), was measured on a motorized treadmill. The potential confounding variables were sexual maturation (Tanner breast stage), ethnic group, body fat percent, and dietary variables. A systematic strategy for data analysis was used to isolate the effects of physical activity and cardiovascular fitness on blood lipids, beginning with assessment of confounding and interaction. Next, from regression models predicting each blood lipid and controlling for covariables, hypotheses were evaluated by the direction and value of the coefficients for physical activity and cardiovascular fitness.^ The main result was that cardiovascular fitness appeared to be more strongly associated with blood lipids than physical activity. An interaction between cardiovascular fitness and sexual maturation indicated that the effect of cardiovascular fitness on most blood lipids was dependent on the stage of sexual maturation.^ A difference of 760 kcal/d physical activity (which represents the difference between the 25th and 75th percentile of physical activity) was associated with negligible differences in blood lipids. In contrast, a difference in 10 ml/min/kg of VO$\rm\sb{2max}$ or cardiovascular fitness (which represents the difference between the 25th and 75th percentile in cardiovascular fitness) in the early stages of sexual maturation was associated with an average positive difference of 15 mg/100 ml ApoA-1 and 10 mg/100 ml HDL-C. ^

Contribution of the genes of the renin-angiotensin system to interindividual differences in blood pressure levels in Caucasians from Rochester, Minnesota

The Renin-Angiotensin system (RAS) regulates blood pressure through its effects on vascular tone, renal hemodynamics, and renal sodium and fluid balance. The genes encoding the four major components of the RAS, angiotensinogen, renin, angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE), and angiotensin II receptor type 1 (AT1), have been investigated as candidate genes in the pathogenesis of essential hypertension. However, studies have primarily focused on small samples of diseased individuals, and, therefore, have provided little information about the determinants of interindividual variation in blood pressure (BP) in the general population.^ Using data from a large population-based sample from Rochester, MN, I have evaluated the contribution of variation in the region of the RAS genes to interindividual variation in systolic, diastolic, and mean arterial pressure in the population-at-large. Marker genotype data from four polymorphisms located within or very near these genes were first collected on 3,974 individuals from 583 randomly ascertained three-generation pedigrees. Haseman-Elston regression and variance component methods of linkage analysis were then carried out to estimate the proportion of interindividual variance in BP attributable to the effects of variation at these four measured loci.^ A significant effect of the ACE locus on interindividual variation in mean arterial pressure (MAP) was detected in a sample of siblings belonging to the youngest generation. After allowing for measured covariates, this effect accounted for 15-25% of the interindividual variance in MAP, and was even greater in a subset with a positive family history of hypertension. When gender-specific analyses were carried out, this effect was significant in males but not in females. Extended pedigree analyses also provided evidence for an effect of the ACE locus on interindividual variation in MAP, but no difference between males and females was observed. Circumstantial evidence suggests that the ACE gene itself may be responsible for the observed effects on BP, although the possibility that other genes in the region may be at play cannot be excluded.^ No definitive evidence for an effect of the renin, angiotensinogen, or AT1 loci on interindividual variation in BP was obtained in this study, suggesting that the impact of these genes on BP may not be great in the Caucasian population-at-large. However, this does not preclude a larger effect of these genes in some subsets of individuals, especially among those with clinically manifest hypertension or coronary heart disease, or in other populations. ^

Risk factors associated with first symptomatic infection of {\it Cryptosporidium parvum\/} in an infant population in Bilbeis, Egypt

Diarrhea disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in children in developing countries. An estimate of the global mortality caused by diarrhea among children under five years of age was 3.3 million deaths per year. Cryptosporidium parvum was first identified in 1907, but it was not until 1970 that this organism was recognized as a cause of diarrhea in calves. Then it was as late as 1976 that the first reported case of human Cryptosporidiosis occurred. This study was conducted to ascertain the risk factors of first symptomatic infection with Cryptosporidium parvum in a cohort of infants in a rural area of Egypt. The cohort was followed from birth through the first year of life. Univariate and multivariate analyses of data demonstrated that infants greater than six months of age had a two-fold risk of infection compared with infants less than six months of age (RR = 2.17; 95% C.I. = 1.01-4.82). When stratified, male infants greater than six months of age were four times more likely to become infected than male infants less than six months of age. Among female infants, there was no difference in risk between infants greater than six months of age and infants less than six months of age. Female infants less than six months of age were twice more likely to become infected than male infants less than six months of age. The reverse occurred for infants greater than six months of age, i.e., male infants greater than six months of age had twice the risk of infection compared to females of the same age group. Further analysis of the data revealed an increased risk of Cryptosporidiosis infection in infants who were attended in childbirth by traditional childbirth attendants compared to infants who were attended by modern childbirth attendants (nurses, trained midwives, physicians) (RR = 4. 18; 95% C.I. = 1.05-36.06). The final risk factor of significance was the number of people residing in the household. Infants in households which housed more than seven persons had an almost two-fold risk of infection compared with infants in homes with fewer than seven persons. Other risk factors which suggested increased risk were lack of education among the mothers, absence of latrines and faucets in the homes, and mud used as building material for walls and floors in the homes. ^

The angiotensin-converting enzyme insertion/deletion polymorphism and its associations with carotid artery wall thickness and coronary heart disease: The atherosclerosis risk in communities study

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of death in the United States. Recently, renin-angiotensin system (RAS) was found associated with atherosclerosis formation, with angiotensin II inducing vascular smooth muscle cell growth and migration, platelet activation and aggregation, and stimulation of plasminogen activator inhibitor-1. Angiotensin II is converted from angiotensin I by angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE) and this enzyme is mainly genetically determined. The ACE gene has been assigned to chromosome 17q23 and an insertion/deletion (I/D)polymorphism has been characterized by the presence/absence of a 287 bp fragment in intron 16 of the gene. The two alleles form three genotypes, namely, DD, ID and II and the DD genotype has been linked to higher plasma ACE levels and cell ACE activity.^ In this study, the association between the ACE I/D polymorphism and carotid artery wall thickness measured by B-mode ultrasound was investigated in a biracial sample, and the association between the gene and incident CHD was investigated in whites and if the gene-CHD association in whites, if any, was due to the gene effect on atherosclerosis. The study participants are from the prospective Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, including adults aged 45 to 65 years. The present dissertation used a matched case-control design for studying the associations of the ACE gene with carotid artery atherosclerosis and an unmatched case-control design for the association of the gene with CHD. A significant recessive effect of the D allele on carotid artery thickness was found in blacks (OR = 3.06, 95% C.I: 1.11-8.47, DD vs. ID and II) adjusting for age, gender, cigarette smoking, LDL-cholesterol and diabetes. No similar associations were found in whites. The ACE I/D polymorphism is significantly associated with coronary heart disease in whites, and while stratifying data by carotid artery wall thickness, the significant associations were only observed in thin-walled subgroups. Assuming a recessive effect of the D allele, odds ratio was 2.84 (95% C.I:1.17-6.90, DD vs. ID and II) and it was 2.30 (95% C.I:1.22-4.35, DD vs. ID vs. II) assuming a codominant effect of the D allele. No significant associations were observed while comparing thick-walled CHD cases with thin-walled controls. Following conclusions could be drawn: (1) The ACE I/D polymorphism is unlikely to confer appreciable increase in the risk of carotid atherosclerosis in US whites, but may increases the risk of carotid atherosclerosis in blacks. (2) ACE I/D polymorphism is a genetic risk factor for incident CHD in US whites and this effect is separate from the chronic process of atherosclerosis development. Finally, the associations observed here are not causal, since the I/D polymorphism is in an intron, where no ACE proteins are encoded. ^

Incidence, etiology and risk factors of neonatal seizures Harris County, Texas, 1992--1994

This study was conducted to determine the incidence and etiology of neonatal seizures, and evaluate risk factors for this condition in Harris County, Texas, between 1992 and 1994. Potential cases were ascertained from four sources: discharge diagnoses at local hospitals, birth certificates, death certificates, and a clinical study of neonatal seizures conducted concurrent with this study at a large tertiary care center in Houston, Texas. The neonatal period was defined as the first 28 days of life for term infants, and up to 44 weeks gestation for preterm infants.^ There were 207 cases of neonatal seizures ascertained among 116,048 live births, yielding and incidence of 1.8 per 1000. Half of the seizures occurred by the third day of life, 70% within the first week, and 93% within the first 28 days of life. Among 48 preterm infants with seizures 15 had their initial seizure after the 28th day of life. About 25% of all seizures occurred after discharge from the hospital of birth.^ Idiopathic seizures occurred most frequently (0.5/1000 births), followed by seizures attributed to perinatal hypoxia/ischemia (0.4/1000 births), intracranial hemorrhage (0.2/1000 births), infection of the central nervous system (0.2/1000 births), and metabolic abnormalities (0.1/1000 births).^ Risk factors were evaluated based on birth certificate information, using univariate and multivariate analysis (logistic regression). Factors considered included birth weight, gender, ethnicity, place of birth, mother's age, method of delivery, parity, multiple birth and, among term infants, small birth weight for gestational age (SGA). Among preterm infants, very low birth weight (VLBW, $<$1500 grams) was the strongest risk factor, followed by birth in private/university hospitals with a Level III nursery compared with hospitals with a Level II nursery (RR = 2.9), and male sex (RR = 1.8). The effect of very low birth weight varied according to ethnicity. Compared to preterm infants weighing 2000-2999 grams, non-white VLBW infants were 12.0 times as likely to have seizures; whereas white VLBW infants were 2.5 times as likely. Among term infants, significant risk factors included SGA (RR = 1.8), birth in Level III nursery private/university hospitals versus hospitals with Level II nursery (RR = 2.0), and birth by cesarean section (RR = 2.2). ^