Sustainable Road Management in Texas : network-level flexible pavement structural condition analysis using data mining techniques

The research team recognized the value of network-level Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) testing to evaluate the structural condition trends of flexible pavements. However, practical limitations due to the cost of testing, traffic control and safety concerns and the ability to test a large network may discourage some agencies from conducting the network-level FWD testing. For this reason, the surrogate measure of the Structural Condition Index (SCI) is suggested for use. The main purpose of the research presented in this paper is to investigate data mining strategies and to develop a prediction method of the structural condition trends for network-level applications which does not require FWD testing. The research team first evaluated the existing and historical pavement condition, distress, ride, traffic and other data attributes in the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) Pavement Maintenance Information System (PMIS), applied data mining strategies to the data, discovered useful patterns and knowledge for SCI value prediction, and finally provided a reasonable measure of pavement structural condition which is correlated to the SCI. To evaluate the performance of the developed prediction approach, a case study was conducted using the SCI data calculated from the FWD data collected on flexible pavements over a 5-year period (2005 – 09) from 354 PMIS sections representing 37 pavement sections on the Texas highway system. The preliminary study results showed that the proposed approach can be used as a supportive pavement structural index in the event when FWD deflection data is not available and help pavement managers identify the timing and appropriate treatment level of preventive maintenance activities.

A review of current statistical methodologies for in storage sampling and surveillance in the grains industry

Effective, statistically robust sampling and surveillance strategies form an integral component of large agricultural industries such as the grains industry. Intensive in-storage sampling is essential for pest detection, Integrated Pest Management (IPM), to determine grain quality and to satisfy importing nation’s biosecurity concerns, while surveillance over broad geographic regions ensures that biosecurity risks can be excluded, monitored, eradicated or contained within an area. In the grains industry, a number of qualitative and quantitative methodologies for surveillance and in-storage sampling have been considered. Primarily, research has focussed on developing statistical methodologies for in storage sampling strategies concentrating on detection of pest insects within a grain bulk, however, the need for effective and statistically defensible surveillance strategies has also been recognised. Interestingly, although surveillance and in storage sampling have typically been considered independently, many techniques and concepts are common between the two fields of research. This review aims to consider the development of statistically based in storage sampling and surveillance strategies and to identify methods that may be useful for both surveillance and in storage sampling. We discuss the utility of new quantitative and qualitative approaches, such as Bayesian statistics, fault trees and more traditional probabilistic methods and show how these methods may be used in both surveillance and in storage sampling systems.

Scheduling techniques to optimise rail operations

In Australia, railway systems play a vital role in transporting the sugarcane crop from farms to mills. The sugarcane transport system is very complex and uses daily schedules, consisting of a set of locomotives runs, to satisfy the requirements of the mill and harvesters. The total cost of sugarcane transport operations is very high; over 35% of the total cost of sugarcane production in Australia is incurred in cane transport. Efficient schedules for sugarcane transport can reduce the cost and limit the negative effects that this system can have on the raw sugar production system. There are several benefits to formulating the train scheduling problem as a blocking parallel-machine job shop scheduling (BPMJSS) problem, namely to prevent two trains passing in one section at the same time; to keep the train activities (operations) in sequence during each run (trip) by applying precedence constraints; to pass the trains on one section in the correct order (priorities of passing trains) by applying disjunctive constraints; and, to ease passing trains by solving rail conflicts by applying blocking constraints and Parallel Machine Scheduling. Therefore, the sugarcane rail operations are formulated as BPMJSS problem. A mixed integer programming and constraint programming approaches are used to describe the BPMJSS problem. The model is solved by the integration of constraint programming, mixed integer programming and search techniques. The optimality performance is tested by Optimization Programming Language (OPL) and CPLEX software on small and large size instances based on specific criteria. A real life problem is used to verify and validate the approach. Constructive heuristics and new metaheuristics including simulated annealing and tabu search are proposed to solve this complex and NP-hard scheduling problem and produce a more efficient scheduling system. Innovative hybrid and hyper metaheuristic techniques are developed and coded using C# language to improve the solutions quality and CPU time. Hybrid techniques depend on integrating heuristic and metaheuristic techniques consecutively, while hyper techniques are the complete integration between different metaheuristic techniques, heuristic techniques, or both.

Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.

The relationship between Bayesian motor unit number estimation and histological measurements of motor neurons in wild-type and SOD1 G93A mice

Objective: To assess the relationship between Bayesian MUNE and histological motor neuron counts in wild-type mice and in an animal model of ALS. Methods: We performed Bayesian MUNE paired with histological counts of motor neurons in the lumbar spinal cord of wild-type mice and transgenic SOD1 G93A mice that show progressive weakness over time. We evaluated the number of acetylcholine endplates that were innervated by a presynaptic nerve. Results: In wild-type mice, the motor unit number in the gastrocnemius muscle estimated by Bayesian MUNE was approximately half the number of motor neurons in the region of the spinal cord that contains the cell bodies of the motor neurons supplying the hindlimb crural flexor muscles. In SOD1 G93A mice, motor neuron numbers declined over time. This was associated with motor endplate denervation at the end-stage of disease. Conclusion: The number of motor neurons in the spinal cord of wild-type mice is proportional to the number of motor units estimated by Bayesian MUNE. In SOD1 G93A mice, there is a lower number of estimated motor units compared to the number of spinal cord motor neurons at the end-stage of disease, and this is associated with disruption of the neuromuscular junction. Significance: Our finding that the Bayesian MUNE method gives estimates of motor unit numbers that are proportional to the numbers of motor neurons in the spinal cord supports the clinical use of Bayesian MUNE in monitoring motor unit loss in ALS patients. © 2012 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology.

Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a methodology for designing experiments for efficiently estimating the parameters of models with computationally intractable likelihoods. The approach combines a commonly used methodology for robust experimental design, based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to ensure that no likelihood evaluations are required. The utility function considered for precise parameter estimation is based upon the precision of the ABC posterior distribution, which we form efficiently via the ABC rejection algorithm based on pre-computed model simulations. Our focus is on stochastic models and, in particular, we investigate the methodology for Markov process models of epidemics and macroparasite population evolution. The macroparasite example involves a multivariate process and we assess the loss of information from not observing all variables.

Measurements of particle emissions from nanotechnology processes, with assessment of measuring techniques and workplace controls

The overall aim of this project was to contribute to existing knowledge regarding methods for measuring characteristics of airborne nanoparticles and controlling occupational exposure to airborne nanoparticles, and to gather data on nanoparticle emission and transport in various workplaces. The scope of this study involved investigating the characteristics and behaviour of particles arising from the operation of six nanotechnology processes, subdivided into nine processes for measurement purposes. It did not include the toxicological evaluation of the aerosol and therefore, no direct conclusion was made regarding the health effects of exposure to these particles. Our research included real-time measurement of sub, and supermicrometre particle number and mass concentration, count median diameter, and alveolar deposited surface area using condensation particle counters, an optical particle counter, DustTrak photometer, scanning mobility particle sizer, and nanoparticle surface area monitor, respectively. Off-line particle analysis included scanning and transmission electron microscopy, energy-dispersive x-ray spectrometry, and thermal optical analysis of elemental carbon. Sources of fibrous and non-fibrous particles were included.

On the efficacy of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts

The performance of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet as well understood as their univariate counterparts. This paper aims to evaluate the efficacy of a range of traditional statistical-based methods for multivariate forecast evaluation together with methods based on underlying considerations of economic theory. It is found that a statistical-based method based on likelihood theory and an economic loss function based on portfolio variance are the most effective means of identifying optimal forecasts of conditional covariance matrices.

Determining the detection capabilities of existing real time measurement techniques for different engineered nanoparticles

The application of nanotechnology products has increased significantly in recent years. With their broad range of applications, including electronics, food and agriculture, power and energy, scientific instruments, clothing, cosmetics, buildings, biomedical and health, etc (Catanzariti, 2008), nanomaterials are an indispensible part of human life.