Investigation of factors driving the costs of operating the 2020 Irish power system with large-scale wind generation

The main goal of this work is to determine the true cost incurred by the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to meet their EU renewable electricity targets. The primary all-island of Ireland policy goal is that 40% of electricity will come from renewable sources in 2020. From this it is expected that wind generation on the Irish electricity system will be in the region of 32-37% of total generation. This leads to issues resulting from wind energy being a non-synchronous, unpredictable and variable source of energy use on a scale never seen before for a single synchronous system. If changes are not made to traditional operational practices, the efficient running of the electricity system will be directly affected by these issues in the coming years. Using models of the electricity system for the all-island grid of Ireland, the effects of high wind energy penetration expected to be present in 2020 are examined. These models were developed using a unit commitment, economic dispatch tool called PLEXOS which allows for a detailed representation of the electricity system to be achieved down to individual generator level. These models replicate the true running of the electricity system through use of day-ahead scheduling and semi-relaxed use of these schedules that reflects the Transmission System Operator's of real time decision making on dispatch. In addition, it carefully considers other non-wind priority dispatch generation technologies that have an effect on the overall system. In the models developed, three main issues associated with wind energy integration were selected to be examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of assumptions presented in other studies. These three issues include wind energy's non-synchronous nature, its variability and spatial correlation, and its unpredictability. This leads to an examination of the effects in three areas: the need for system operation constraints required for system security; different onshore to offshore ratios of installed wind energy; and the degrees of accuracy in wind energy forecasting. Each of these areas directly impact the way in which the electricity system is run as they address each of the three issues associated with wind energy stated above, respectively. It is shown that assumptions in these three areas have a large effect on the results in terms of total generation costs, wind curtailment and generator technology type dispatch. In particular accounting for these issues has resulted in wind curtailment being predicted in much larger quantities than had been previously reported. This would have a large effect on wind energy companies because it is already a very low profit margin industry. Results from this work have shown that the relaxation of system operation constraints is crucial to the economic running of the electricity system with large improvements shown in the reduction of wind curtailment and system generation costs. There are clear benefits in having a proportion of the wind installed offshore in Ireland which would help to reduce variability of wind energy generation on the system and therefore reduce wind curtailment. With envisaged future improvements in day-ahead wind forecasting from 8% to 4% mean absolute error, there are potential reductions in wind curtailment system costs and open cycle gas turbine usage. This work illustrates the consequences of assumptions in the areas of system operation constraints, onshore/offshore installed wind capacities and accuracy in wind forecasting to better inform the true costs associated with running Ireland's changing electricity system as it continues to decarbonise into the near future. This work also proposes to illustrate, through the use of Ireland as a case study, the effects that will become ever more prevalent in other synchronous systems as they pursue a path of increasing renewable energy generation.

The Changing Face of Neolithic and Bronze Age Ireland: A Big Data Approach to the Settlement and Burial Records

This paper synthesizes and discusses the spatial and temporal patterns of archaeological sites in Ireland, spanning the Neolithic period and the Bronze Age transition (4300–1900 cal BC), in order to explore the timing and implications of the main changes that occurred in the archaeological record of that period. Large amounts of new data are sourced from unpublished developer-led excavations and combined with national archives, published excavations and online databases. Bayesian radiocarbon models and context- and sample-sensitive summed radiocarbon probabilities are used to examine the dataset. The study captures the scale and timing of the initial expansion of Early Neolithic settlement and the ensuing attenuation of all such activity—an apparent boom-and-bust cycle. The Late Neolithic and Chalcolithic periods are characterised by a resurgence and diversification of activity. Contextualisation and spatial analysis of radiocarbon data reveals finer-scale patterning than is usually possible with summed-probability approaches: the boom-and-bust models of prehistoric populations may, in fact, be a misinterpretation of more subtle demographic changes occurring at the same time as cultural change and attendant differences in the archaeological record.

Environmental factors affecting maerl bed structure in Brittany (France)

This study used a large spatial scale approach in order to better quantify the relationships between maerl bed structure and a selection of potentially forcing physical factors. Data on maerl bed structure and morpho-sedimentary characteristics were obtained from recent oceanographic surveys using underwater video recording and grab sampling. Considering the difficulties in carrying out real-time monitoring of highly variable hydrodynamic and physicochemical factors, these were generated by three-dimensional numerical models with high spatial and temporal resolution. The BIOENV procedure indicated that variation in the percentage cover of thalli can best be explained (correlation = 0.76) by a combination of annual mean salinity, annual mean nitrate concentration and annual mean current velocity, while the variation in the proportion of living thalli can best be explained (correlation = 0.47) by a combination of depth and mud content. Linear relationships showed that the percentage cover of maerl thalli was positively correlated with nitrate concentration (R2 = 0.78, P < 0.01) and negatively correlated with salinity (R2 = 0.81, P < 0.01), suggesting a strong effect of estuarine discharge on maerl bed structure, and also negatively correlated with current velocity (R2 = 0.81, P < 0.01). When maerl beds were deeper than 10 m, the proportion of living thalli was always below 30% but when they were shallower than 10 m, it varied between 4 and 100%, and was negatively correlated with mud content (R2 = 0.53, P < 0.01). On the other hand, when mud content was below 10%, the proportion of living thalli showed a negative correlation with depth (R2 = 0.84, P < 0.01). This large spatial scale explanation of maerl bed heterogeneity provides a realistic physical characterization of these ecologically interesting benthic habitats and usable findings for their conservation and management.

Application of GIS in potential beekeeping assessment: Case study of Montesinho Natural Park (Portugal)

Planners require solutions that address routine work needs and seems essential to improving efficiency and productivity. There are a great number of different factors related to beekeeper activity as well the quality and productivity of different bee products. The spatial analysis is a powerful tool for overlap and relates various levels of information on a map, and consequently a very useful for beekeeping activity planning. This work proposes and applies a methodology to potential beekeeping assessment in Montesinho Natural Park, a region in the northwest of Portugal. The beekeeping potential maps were developed with the following data sources: legal standards, vegetation, land use, topography, water resources, roads, electromagnetic fields, and some honey physico-chemical analysis. The design and implementation of spatial analysis model based on Geographic Information System (GIS) to beekeeping planning activities has already been described by Anjos et al (2014). Spatial analysis techniques allows to define the potential beekeeper map supporting the beekeeper management in this region. Anjos O, Silva G, Roque N, Fernandez P, 2014. GIS based analysis to support the beekeeping planning. Book of abstracts of the International Symposium on Bee Products 3rd edition – Annual meeting of the International Honey Commission (IHC), Faculty of medicine, University of Rijeka, p:61

Caracterização da diversidade parasitária em carníveros silvestres e implicações na conservação

Recolher dados para actualizar os conhecimento da diversidade parasitária dos mesocarnívoros mais abundantes nas regiões do sul de Portugal e relacionar a dispersão parasitária, a conservação e a saúde humana constituíram os principais objetivos deste estudo. Raposas (Vulpes vulpes), sacarrabos (Herpestes ichneumon), fuinhas (Martes foina), ginetes (Genetta genetta) e texugos (Meles meles) atropelados foram os carnívoros-hospedeiros em estudo. Um grupo de raposas caçadas foi também considerado parte da amostra. A informação geo-referenciada de todos os animais serviu para executar a análise espacial. Realizaram-se necrópsias meticulosas e procedeu­ se à recolha, identificação e preservação dos parasitas encontrados. Pela primeira vez em Portugal é registada a presença do parasita da gineta Ancytostoma martinezi. A correlação entre os factores humanos e ambientais e, a riqueza de espécies foi determinada estatisticamente. Densidade populacional, disponibilidade de égua, tipo de uso de solo e distância mínima às sedes de concelho não apresentaram uma relação estatisticamente significativa com a infecção parasitária das raposas. Os resultados obtidos relativamente à presença de parasitas zoonóticos nos animais silvestres em estudo fomentam o trabalho multidisciplinar entre a Biologia da Conservação e as ciências médicas. ABSTRACT; The aim of this study was to collect data in order to update the information related to the parasitic diversity of the predominant mesocarnívores in the southern regions of Portugal and to establish relationships between the parasite dispersal, conservation and human health. Road killed foxes (Vulpes vulpes), mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon), stone marten (Martes foina), common genets (Genetta genetta) and euroasian badgers (Meles meles) were the considered carnivore-hosts. A sample of hunted foxes was also regarded.AD the animals had geo-reference information, ultimately used for spatial analysis. Thorough necropsies were performed and macroparasites collected, identified and preserved. For the first time in Portugal Ancylostoma martinezi, a common genets parasite.is recorded. Statistical species richness and correlation between human and environmental factors were determined. Human population density, water drainage, soil use, minimum distance to head council cities and the infection status of foxes proved no significant statistical relation. Results obtained on zoonotic parasites present in wild animals enhance the necessity of multidisciplinary work between Biology conservation and medical sciences.

Regional differences of outpatient physician supply as a theoretical economic and empirical generalized linear model

BACKGROUND: Regional differences in physician supply can be found in many health care systems, regardless of their organizational and financial structure. A theoretical model is developed for the physicians' decision on office allocation, covering demand-side factors and a consumption time function. METHODS: To test the propositions following the theoretical model, generalized linear models were estimated to explain differences in 412 German districts. Various factors found in the literature were included to control for physicians' regional preferences. RESULTS: Evidence in favor of the first three propositions of the theoretical model could be found. Specialists show a stronger association to higher populated districts than GPs. Although indicators for regional preferences are significantly correlated with physician density, their coefficients are not as high as population density. CONCLUSIONS: If regional disparities should be addressed by political actions, the focus should be to counteract those parameters representing physicians' preferences in over- and undersupplied regions.

The Spatial Convergence of Knowledge in Portugal

Human resources are an essential element in territorial development. When these are characterized by a high level of training, they also enhance a number of effects in fundamental areas of binomial territorial-social cohesion. In this respect, the existence of higher education institutions throughout the territory allows the spread of human resources’ qualification but, by itself, does not guarantee the retention of these resources in different regions. Thus, the objective of this paper is to undertake a spatial analysis of convergence of knowledge through studying the evolution of the percentage of population with higher education in the periods elapsed between the last three censuses in Portugal. Although that percentage has risen appreciably, the convergence is shown to be (very) insignificant.

THE INFLUENCE OF URBAN FORM AT DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHICAL SCALES ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOR; EVIDENCE FROM U.S. CITIES

Suburban lifestyle is popular among American families, although it has been criticized for encouraging automobile use through longer commutes, causing heavy traffic congestion, and destroying open spaces (Handy, 2005). It is a serious concern that people living in low-density suburban areas suffer from high automobile dependency and lower rates of daily physical activity, both of which result in social, environmental and health-related costs. In response to such concerns, researchers have investigated the inter-relationships between urban land-use pattern and travel behavior within the last few decades and suggested that land-use planning can play a significant role in changing travel behavior in the long-term. However, debates regarding the magnitude and efficiency of the effects of land-use on travel patterns have been contentious over the years. Changes in built-environment patterns is potentially considered a long-term panacea for automobile dependency and traffic congestion, despite some researchers arguing that the effects of land-use on travel behavior are minor, if any. It is still not clear why the estimated impact is different in urban areas and how effective a proposed land-use change/policy is in changing certain travel behavior. This knowledge gap has made it difficult for decision-makers to evaluate land-use plans and policies. In addition, little is known about the influence of the large-scale built environment. In the present dissertation, advanced spatial-statistical tools have been employed to better understand and analyze these impacts at different scales, along with analyzing transit-oriented development policy at both small and large scales. The objective of this research is to: (1) develop scalable and consistent measures of the overall physical form of metropolitan areas; (2) re-examine the effects of built-environment factors at different hierarchical scales on travel behavior, and, in particular, on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and car ownership; and (3) investigate the effects of transit-oriented development on travel behavior. The findings show that changes in built-environment at both local and regional levels could be very influential in changing travel behavior. Specifically, the promotion of compact, mixed-use built environment with well-connected street networks reduces VMT and car ownership, resulting in less traffic congestion, air pollution, and energy consumption.

Spatial distribution of triatomines in domiciles of an urban area of the Brazilian Southeast Region

Reports of triatomine infestation in urban areas have increased. We analysed the spatial distribution of infestation by triatomines in the urban area of Diamantina, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Triatomines were obtained by community-based entomological surveillance. Spatial patterns of infestation were analysed by Ripley’s K function and Kernel density estimator. Normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land cover derived from satellite imagery were compared between infested and uninfested areas. A total of 140 adults of four species were captured (100 Triatoma vitticeps, 25 Panstrongylus geniculatus, 8 Panstrongylus megistus, and 7 Triatoma arthurneivai specimens). In total, 87.9% were captured within domiciles. Infection by trypanosomes was observed in 19.6% of 107 examined insects. The spatial distributions of T. vitticeps, P. geniculatus, T. arthurneivai, and trypanosome-positive triatomines were clustered, occurring mainly in peripheral areas. NDVI values were statistically higher in areas infested by T. vitticeps and P. geniculatus. Buildings infested by these species were located closer to open fields, whereas infestations of P. megistus and T. arthurneivai were closer to bare soil. Human occupation and modification of natural areas may be involved in triatomine invasion, exposing the population to these vectors.

Influence of factors in the oral mucosa maturation pattern: a cross-sectional study applying multivariate analyses

Aim: To evaluate the association between oral health status, socio-demographic and behavioral factors with the pattern of maturity of normal epithelial oral mucosa. Methods: Exfoliative cytology specimens were collected from 117 men from the border of the tongue and floor of the mouth on opposite sides. Cells were stained with the Papanicolaou method and classified into: anucleated, superficial cells with nuclei, intermediate and parabasal cells. Quantification was made by selecting the first 100 cells in each glass slide. Sociodemographic and behavioral variables were collected from a structured questionnaire. Oral health was analyzed by clinical examination, recording decayed, missing and filled teeth index (DMFT) and use of prostheses. Multivariable linear regression models were applied. Results: No significant differences for all studied variables influenced the pattern of maturation of the oral mucosa except for alcohol consumption. There was an increase of cell surface layers of the epithelium with the chronic use of alcohol. Conclusions: It is appropriate to use Papanicolaou cytopathological technique to analyze the maturation pattern of exposed subjects, with a strong recommendation for those who use alcohol - a risk factor for oral cancer, in which a change in the proportion of cell types is easily detected.

Factors Contributing to the Academic Performance of BEI Learners

Se analizan los factores que intervienen en el rendimiento académico de los estudiantes del Bachillerato en la Enseñanza del Inglés (BEI) de la Universidad Nacional (Costa Rica). El contexto universitario, el papel de los profesores, la motivación en los estudiantes y los hábitos de estudio son condiciones para fomentar el éxito académico. Según los resultados, los aprendientes necesitan ciertas características personales, motivación y metas para tener éxito en su trabajo académico. Este estudio de caso contribuye a una mejor percepción de los factores que influyen en el mejoramiento de las aptitudes de estudio y aprendizaje, así como los que intervienen en el logro de las metas académicas.This analysis refers to factors contributing to the academic performance of the students majoring in the teaching of English at the Universidad Nacional (Costa Rica). The university context, the professors' role, students' motivation and their study habits are conditions for fostering academic success. The findings indicate that learners need certain personality traits, motivation and goals to succeed in their academic work. This case study provides insight on the factors that influence the enhancement of study skills and leaming, as well as other factors that contribute to the accomplishment of academic goals.

Buckwheat as a Cover Crop in Florida: Mycorrhizal Status, Soil Analysis, and Economic Assessment

This thesis analyses buckwheat as a cover crop in Florida. The study was designed to demonstrate: soil enrichment with nutrients, mycorrhizal arbuscular fungi interactions, growth in different soil types, temperature limitations in Florida, and economic benefits for farmers. Buckwheat was planted at the FIU organic garden (Miami, FL) in early November and harvested in middle December. After incorporation of buckwheat residues, soil analyses indicated the ability of buckwheat to enrich soil with major nutrients, in particular, phosphorus. Symbiosis with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi increased inorganic phosphorus uptake and plant growth. Regression analysis on aboveground buckwheat biomass weight and soil characteristics showed that high soil pH was the major limiting factor that affected buckwheat growth. Spatial analysis illustrated that buckwheat could be planted in South Florida throughout the year but might not be planted in North and Central Florida in winter. An economic assessment proved buckwheat to be a profitable cover crop.

Geospatial Data Indexing Analysis and Visualization via Web Services with Autonomic Resource Management

With the exponential growth of the usage of web-based map services, the web GIS application has become more and more popular. Spatial data index, search, analysis, visualization and the resource management of such services are becoming increasingly important to deliver user-desired Quality of Service. First, spatial indexing is typically time-consuming and is not available to end-users. To address this, we introduce TerraFly sksOpen, an open-sourced an Online Indexing and Querying System for Big Geospatial Data. Integrated with the TerraFly Geospatial database [1-9], sksOpen is an efficient indexing and query engine for processing Top-k Spatial Boolean Queries. Further, we provide ergonomic visualization of query results on interactive maps to facilitate the user’s data analysis. Second, due to the highly complex and dynamic nature of GIS systems, it is quite challenging for the end users to quickly understand and analyze the spatial data, and to efficiently share their own data and analysis results with others. Built on the TerraFly Geo spatial database, TerraFly GeoCloud is an extra layer running upon the TerraFly map and can efficiently support many different visualization functions and spatial data analysis models. Furthermore, users can create unique URLs to visualize and share the analysis results. TerraFly GeoCloud also enables the MapQL technology to customize map visualization using SQL-like statements [10]. Third, map systems often serve dynamic web workloads and involve multiple CPU and I/O intensive tiers, which make it challenging to meet the response time targets of map requests while using the resources efficiently. Virtualization facilitates the deployment of web map services and improves their resource utilization through encapsulation and consolidation. Autonomic resource management allows resources to be automatically provisioned to a map service and its internal tiers on demand. v-TerraFly are techniques to predict the demand of map workloads online and optimize resource allocations, considering both response time and data freshness as the QoS target. The proposed v-TerraFly system is prototyped on TerraFly, a production web map service, and evaluated using real TerraFly workloads. The results show that v-TerraFly can accurately predict the workload demands: 18.91% more accurate; and efficiently allocate resources to meet the QoS target: improves the QoS by 26.19% and saves resource usages by 20.83% compared to traditional peak load-based resource allocation.

STAR Modeling of Pulmonary Tuberculosis Delay-Time in Diagnosis

Understanding what characterizes patients who suffer great delays in diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis is of great importance when establishing screening strategies to better control TB. Greater delays in diagnosis imply a higher chance for susceptible individuals to become infected by a bacilliferous patient. A Structured Additive Regression model is attempted in this study in order to potentially contribute to a better characterization of bacilliferous prevalence in Portugal. The main findings suggest the existence of significant regional differences in Portugal, with the fact of being female and/or alcohol dependent contributing to an increased delay-time in diagnosis, while being dependent on intravenous drugs and/or being diagnosed with HIV are factors that increase the chance of an earlier diagnosis of pulmonary TB. A decrease in 2010 to 77% on treatment success in Portugal underlines the importance of conducting more research aimed at better TB control strategies.