985 resultados para Bayesian logistic regression
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Background Little information exists regarding the interaction effects of obesity with long-term air pollution exposure on cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and stroke in areas of high pollution. The aim of the present study is to examine whether obesity modifies CVD-related associations among people living in an industrial province of northeast China. Methods We studied 24,845 Chinese adults, aged 18 to 74 years old, from three Northeastern Chinese cities in 2009 utilizing a cross-sectional study design. Body weight and height were measured by trained observers. Overweight and obesity were defined as a body mass index (BMI) between 25–29.9 and ≥ 30 kg/m2, respectively. Prevalence rate and related risk factors of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were investigated by a questionnaire. Three-year (2006–2008) average concentrations of particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxides (NO2), and ozone (O3) were measured by fixed monitoring stations. All the participants lived within 1 km of air monitoring sites. Two-level logistic regression (personal level and district-specific pollutant level) was used to examine these effects, controlling for covariates. Results We observed significant interactions between exposure and obesity on CVDs and stroke. The associations between annual pollutant concentrations and CVDs and stroke were strongest in obese subjects (OR 1.15–1.47 for stroke, 1.33–1.59 for CVDs), less strong in overweight subjects (OR 1.22–1.35 for stroke, 1.07–1.13 for CVDs), and weakest in normal weight subjects (OR ranged from 0.98–1.01 for stroke, 0.93–1.15 for CVDs). When stratified by gender, these interactions were significant only in women. Conclusions Study findings indicate that being overweight and obese may enhance the effects of air pollution on the prevalence of CVDs and stroke in Northeastern metropolitan China. Further studies will be needed to investigate the temporality of BMI relative to exposure and onset of disease.
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Suboptimal restraint use, particularly the incorrect use of restraints, is a significant and widespread problem among child vehicle occupants, and increases the risk of injury. Previous research has identified comfort as a potential factor influencing suboptimal restraint use. Both the real comfort experienced by the child and the parent’s perception of the child’s comfort are reported to influence the optimal use of restraints. Problems with real comfort may lead the child to misuse the restraint in their attempt to achieve better comfort whilst parent-perceived discomfort has been reported as a driver for premature graduation and inappropriate restraint choice. However, this work has largely been qualitative. There has been no research that objectively studies either the association between real and parental perceived comfort, or any association between comfort and suboptimal restraint use. One barrier to such studies is the absence of validated tools for quantifying real comfort in children. We aimed to develop methods to examine both real and parent-perceived comfort and examine their effects on suboptimal restraint use. We conducted online parent surveys (n=470) to explore what drives parental perceptions of their child’s comfort in restraint systems (study 1) and used data from field observation studies (n=497) to examine parent-perceived comfort and its relationship with observed restraint use (study 2). We developed methods to measure comfort in children in a laboratory setting (n=14) using video analysis to estimate a Discomfort Avoidance Behaviour (DAB) score, pressure mapping and adapted survey tools to differentiate between comfortable and induced discomfort conditions (study 3). Preliminary analysis of our recent online survey of Australian parents (study 1) indicates that 23% of parents report comfort as a consideration when making a decision to change restraints. Logistic regression modelling of data collected during the field observation study (study 2) revealed that parent-perceived discomfort was not significantly associated with premature graduation. Contrary to expectation, children of parents who reported that their child was comfortable were almost twice as likely to have been incorrectly restrained (p<0.01, 95% CI 1.24 - 2.77). In the laboratory study (study 3) we found our adapted survey tools did not provide a reliable measurement of real comfort among children. However our DAB score was able to differentiate between comfortable and induced discomfort conditions and correlated well with pressure mapping. Our results suggest that while some parents report concern about their child’s comfort, parent-reported comfort levels were not associated with restraint choice. If comfort is important for optimal restraint use, it is likely to be the real comfort of the child rather than that reported by the parent. The method we have developed for studying real comfort can be used in naturalistic studies involving child occupants to further understand this relationship. This work will be of interest to vehicle and child restraint manufacturers interested in improving restraint design for young occupants as well as researchers and other stakeholders interested in reducing the incidence of restraint misuse among children.
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Background and Purpose Randomized trials have demonstrated reduced morbidity and mortality with stroke unit care; however, the effect on length of stay, and hence the economic benefit, is less well-defined. In 2001, a multidisciplinary stroke unit was opened at our institution. We observed whether a stroke unit reduces length of stay and in-hospital case fatality when compared to admission to a general neurology/medical ward. Methods A retrospective study of 2 cohorts in the Foothills Medical Center in Calgary was conducted using administrative databases. We compared a cohort of stroke patients managed on general neurology/medical wards before 2001, with a similar cohort of stroke patients managed on a stroke unit after 2003. The length of stay was dichotomized after being centered to 7 days and the Charlson Index was dichotomized for analysis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare the length of stay and case fatality in 2 cohorts, adjusted for age, gender, and patient comorbid conditions defined by the Charlson Index. Results Average length of stay for patients on a stroke unit (n=2461) was 15 days vs 19 days for patients managed on general neurology/medical wards (n=1567). The proportion of patients with length of stay >7 days on general neurology/medical wards was 53.8% vs 44.4% on the stroke unit (difference 9.4%; P<0.0001). The adjusted odds of a length of stay >7 days was reduced by 30% (P<0.0001) on a stroke unit compared to general neurology/medical wards. Overall in-hospital case fatality was reduced by 4.5% with stroke unit care. Conclusions We observed a reduced length of stay and reduced in-hospital case-fatality in a stroke unit compared to general neurology/medical wards.
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Background: Prediction of outcome after stroke is important for triage decisions, prognostic estimates for family and for appropriate resource utilization. Prognostication must be timely and simply applied. Several scales have shown good prognostic value. In Calgary, the Orpington Prognostic Score (OPS) has been used to predict outcome as an aid to rehabilitation triage. However, the OPS has not been assessed at one week for predictive capability. Methods: Among patients admitted to a sub-acute stroke unit, OPS from the first week were examined to determine if any correlation existed between final disposition after rehabilitation and first week score. The predictive validity of the OPS at one week was compared to National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score at 24 hours using logistic regression and receiver operator characteristics analysis. The primary outcome was final disposition after discharge from the stroke unit if the patient went directly home, or died, or from the inpatient rehabilitation unit. Results: The first week OPS was highly predictive of final disposition. However, no major advantage in using the first week OPS was observed when compared to 24h NIHSS score. Both scales were equally predictive of final disposition of stroke patients, post rehabilitation. Conclusion: The first week OPS can be used to predict final outcome. The NIHSS at 24h provides the same prognostic information.
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Objective To analyze the ability to discriminate between healthy individuals and individuals with chronic nonspecific low back pain (CNLBP) by measuring the relation between patient-reported outcomes and objective clinical outcome measures of the erector spinae (ES) muscles using an ultrasound during maximal isometric lumbar extension. Design Cross-sectional study with screening and diagnostic tests with no blinded comparison. Setting University laboratory. Participants Healthy individuals (n=33) and individuals with CNLBP (n=33). Interventions Each subject performed an isometric lumbar extension. With the variables measured, a discriminate analysis was performed using a value ≥6 in the Roland and Morris disability questionnaire (RMDQ) as the grouping variable. Then, a logistic regression with the functional and architectural variables was performed. A new index was obtained from each subject value input in the discriminate multivariate analysis. Main Outcome Measures Morphologic muscle variables of the ES muscle were measured through ultrasound images. The reliability of the measures was calculated through intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). The relation between patient-reported outcomes and objective clinical outcome measures was analyzed using a discriminate function from standardized values of the variables and an analysis of the reliability of the ultrasound measurement. Results The reliability tests show an ICC value >.95 for morphologic and functional variables. The independent variables included in the analysis explained 42% (P=.003) of the dependent variable variance. Conclusions The relation between objective variables (electromyography, thickness, pennation angle) and a subjective variable (RMDQ ≥6) and the capacity of this relation to identify CNLBP within a group of healthy subjects is moderate. These results should be considered by clinicians when treating this type of patient in clinical practice.
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The provision of autonomy supportive environments that promote physical activity engagement have become popular in contemporary youth settings. However, questions remain about whether adolescent perceptions of their autonomy have implications for physical activity. The purpose of this investigation was to examine the association between adolescents’ self-reported physical activity and their perceived autonomy. Participants (n = 384 adolescents) aged between 12 and 15 years were recruited from six secondary schools in metropolitan Brisbane, Australia. Self-reported measures of physical activity and autonomy were obtained. Logistic regression with inverse probability weights were used to examine the association between autonomy and the odds of meeting youth physical activity guidelines. Autonomy (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.49-0.76) and gender (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.46-0.83) were negatively associated with meeting physical activity guidelines. However, the model explained only a small amount of the variation in whether youth in this sample met physical activity guidelines (R2 = 0.023). For every 1 unit decrease in autonomy (on an index from 1 to 5), participants were 1.64 times more likely to meet physical activity guidelines. The findings, which are at odds with several previous studies, suggest that interventions designed to facilitate youth physical activity should limit opportunities for youth to make independent decisions about their engagement. However, the small amount of variation explained by the predictors in the model is a caveat, and should be considered prior to applying such suggestions in practical settings. Future research should continue to examine a larger age range, longitudinal observational or intervention studies to examine assertions of causality, as well as objective measurement of physical activity.
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Background and purpose Adaptive radiotherapy (ART) can account for the dosimetric impact of anatomical change in head and neck cancer patients; however it can be resource intensive. Consequently, it is imperative that patients likely to require ART are identified. The purpose of this study was to find predictive factors that identify oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPC) and nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients more likely to need ART. Materials and methods One hundred and ten patients with OPC or NPC were analysed. Patient demographics and tumour characteristics were compared between patients who were replanned and those that were not. Factors found to be significant were included in logistic regression models. Risk profiles were developed from these models. A dosimetric analysis was performed. Results Nodal disease stage, pre-treatment largest involved node size, diagnosis and initial weight (categorised in 2 groups) were identified as significant for inclusion in the model. Two models were found to be significant (p = 0.001), correctly classifying 98.2% and 96.1% of patients respectively. Three ART risk profiles were developed. Conclusion Predictive factors identifying OPC or NPC patients more likely to require ART were reported. A risk profile approach could facilitate the effective implementation of ART into radiotherapy departments through forward planning and appropriate resource allocation.
Females as mobile resources: communal roosts promote the adoption of lek breeding in a temperate bat
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Males of lek-breeding species defend clustered territories from which they display to visiting females. However, the mechanisms leading to the adoption of clustered male display sites are often unknown. In this study, we examined the possibility of a resource-based lek in New Zealand’s lesser short-tailed bat (Mystacina tuberculata) (Mammalia: Chiroptera), by assessing the placement of “singing roosts” used by males in relation to communal roosting sites used by females. The “resource-based lek” model posits that males settle near resources required by females to increase female encounter rates. For most bat species, where females are highly mobile and widely dispersed across landscapes while foraging, communal daytime roosts dominated by females may represent such a resource. Through use of video footage, spatial analyses of singing-roost locations, and passive-integrated transponder tags we confirmed that M. tuberculata employs a lek mating system. We found that male singing roosts were significantly clustered in space, were defended by resident individuals, and were visited by females (who did not receive resources from males) for mating purposes. Transponder records also indicated that some singing roosts were shared between multiple males. Spatial logistic regression indicated that singing-roost locations were associated with communal roosting sites. Communal roosts are selected based on criteria independent of the locations of singing roosts, suggesting that males responded to the location of communal roosts and not the reverse. Mystacina tuberculata thus provides evidence of a resource-based lek, and is only the second bat species worldwide confirmed to use a lek-mating system.
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Background Understanding how different socioeconomic indicators are associated with transport modes provide insight into which interventions might contribute to reducing socioeconomic inequalities in health. The purpose of this study was to examine associations between neighbourhood-level socioeconomic disadvantage, individual-level socioeconomic position (SEP) and usual transport mode. Methods This investigation included 11,036 residents from 200 neighbourhoods in Brisbane, Australia. Respondents self-reported their usual transport mode (car or motorbike, public transport, walking or cycling). Indicators for individual-level SEP were education, occupation, and household income; and neighbourhood disadvantage was measured using a census-derived index. Data were analysed using multilevel multinomial logistic regression. High SEP respondents and residents of the most advantaged neighbourhoods who used a private motor vehicle as their usual form of transport was the reference category. Results Compared with driving a motor vehicle, the odds of using public transport were higher for white collar employees (OR1.68, 95%CrI 1.41-2.01), members of lower income households (OR 1.71 95%CrI 1.25-2.30), and residents of more disadvantaged neighbourhoods (OR 1.93, 95%CrI 1.46-2.54); and lower for respondents with a certificate-level education (OR 0.60, 95%CrI 0.49-0.74) and blue collar workers (OR 0.63, 95%CrI 0.50-0.81). The odds of walking for transport were higher for the least educated (OR 1.58, 95%CrI 1.18-2.11), those not in the labour force (OR 1.94, 95%CrI 1.38-2.72), members of lower income households (OR 2.10, 95%CrI 1.23-3.64), and residents of more disadvantaged neighbourhoods (OR 2.73, 95%CrI 1.46-5.24). The odds of cycling were lower among less educated groups (OR 0.31, 95% CrI 0.19-0.48). Conclusion The relationships between socioeconomic characteristics and transport modes are complex, and provide challenges for those attempting to encourage active forms of transportation. Further work is required exploring the individual- and neighbourhood-level mechanisms behind transport mode choice, and what factors might influence individuals from different socioeconomic backgrounds to change to more active transport modes.
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This thesis assessed the mental health impacts of flooding and explored the key determinants of flood-related mental illness in the coastal region of Bangladesh. This study found significant increase in the prevalence of mental illness after flooding. Flood-exposure and socio-economic factors were significantly associated with post-flood mental illness. These findings may help the policy-makers to improve the early intervention and screening programs and may also have significant public health implications in the control and prevention of flood-related mental illness in Bangladesh.
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BACKGROUND After general surgery, the lower limb experiences some of the highest complication rates. However, little is known about contributing factors to surgical site failure in the lower limb dermatological surgery population. OBJECTIVE To determine the incidence of lower limb surgical site failure and to explore the predictors that contribute to surgical site failure. METHODS A prospective observational study design was used to collect data from 73 participants, from July 2010, to March 2012. Incidence was determined as a percentage of surgical site failure from the total population. Predictors were determined by the use of a binary logistic regression model. RESULTS The surgical site failure rate was 53.4%. Split-skin grafting had a higher failure rate than primary closures, 66% versus 26.1%. Predictors of lower limb surgical site failure were identified as increasing age (p = .04) and the presence of postoperative hematoma (p = .01), with all patients who developed surgical site infection experiencing surgical site failure (p = .01). CONCLUSION Findings from this study confirmed that the lower limb is at high risk of surgical site failure. Two predictors of surgical site failure from this cohort were determined. However, to understand this phenomenon and make recommendations to assist and reduce surgical site complications, further research in this field is required.
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Objective This study aims to identify the main reasons for which first time and multiple users seek medical care through Queensland emergency departments (ED). Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted at eight public EDs among presenting patients (n = 911). The questions measured the socio-demographic characteristics of patients, their beliefs and attitudes towards EDs services, and perceptions of health status. Bivariate and binary logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the differences between first time and multiple users of EDs. Results First time and multiple users accounted for 55.5% and 44.5%, respectively. Multiple users themselves believed to be sicker, have poorer health status, and additional and/or chronic health conditions. Multiple users more strongly believed that their condition required treatment at an ED and perceived their condition as being very serious. Multiple users reported weekly household incomes below $600, and half of the multiple users were not working as compared to 35% first time users. Multivariate analysis showed that multiple use was significantly associated with the existence of additional health problems, having chronic condition, lower self-efficacy, and need for ED treatment. Conclusions Patients who sought care for multiple times at EDs more often than first time users suffered from additional and chronic conditions. Their opinion of an ED as the most suitable place to address their current health problem was stronger than first time users. Any proposed demand management strategies need to address these beliefs together with the reasoning of patients to provide effective and appropriate care outside or within ED services.
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BACKGROUND Hamstring strain injuries (HSIs) represent the most common cause of lost playing time in rugby union. Eccentric knee-flexor weakness and between-limb imbalance in eccentric knee-flexor strength are associated with a heightened risk of hamstring injury in other sports; however these variables have not been explored in rugby union. PURPOSE To determine if lower levels of eccentric knee-flexor strength or greater between-limb imbalance in this parameter during the Nordic hamstring exercise are risk-factors for hamstring strain injury in rugby union. STUDY DESIGN Cohort study; level of evidence, 3. METHODS This prospective study was conducted over the 2014 Super Rugby and Queensland Rugby Union seasons. In total, 178 rugby union players (age, 22.6 ± 3.8 years; height, 185 ± 6.8 cm; mass, 96.5 ± 13.1 kg) had their eccentric knee-flexor strength assessed using a custom-made device during the pre-season. Reports of previous hamstring, quadriceps, groin, calf and anterior cruciate ligament injury were also obtained. The main outcome measure was prospective occurrence of hamstring strain injury. RESULTS Twenty players suffered at least one hamstring strain during the study period. Players with a history of hamstring strain injury had 4.1 fold (RR = 4.1, 95% CI = 1.9 to 8.9, p = 0.001) greater risk of subsequent hamstring injury than players without such history. Between-limb imbalance in eccentric knee-flexor strength of ≥ 15% and ≥ 20% increased the risk of hamstring strain injury 2.4 fold (RR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.1 to 5.5, p = 0.033) and 3.4 fold (RR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.5 to 7.6, p = 0.003), respectively. Lower eccentric knee flexor strength and other prior injuries were not associated with increased risk of future hamstring strain. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that the risk of re-injury was augmented in players with strength imbalances. CONCLUSION Previous hamstring strain injury and between-limb imbalance in eccentric knee-flexor strength were associated with an increased risk of future hamstring strain injury in rugby union. These results support the rationale for reducing imbalance, particularly in players who have suffered a prior hamstring injury, to mitigate the risk of future injury.
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Migraine has been defined as a common disabling primary headache disorder. Epidemiology studies have provided with the undeniable evidence of genetic components as active players in the development of the disease under a polygenic model in which multiple risk alleles exert modest individual effects. Our objective was to test the contribution of a polygenic effect to migraine risk in the Norfolk Island population using a panel of SNPs reported to be disease associated in published migraine GWAS. We also investigated whether individual SNPs were associated with gene expression levels measured in whole-blood. Polygenic scores were calculated in a total of 285 related individuals (74 cases, 211 controls) from the Norfolk Island using 51 SNPs previously reported to be associated with migraine in published GWAS. The association between polygenic score and migraine case-control status was tested using logistic regression. Results indicate that a migraine polygenic risk score was associated with migraine case-control status in this population (P=0.016). This supports the hypothesis that multiple SNPs with weak effects collectively contribute to migraine risk in this population. Amongst the SNPs included in the polygenic model, 4 were associated with the expression of the USMG5 gene, including rs171251 (P = 0.012). Results from this study provide evidence for a polygenic contribution to migraine risk in an isolated population and highlight specific SNPs that regulate the expression of USMG5, a gene critical for mitochondrial function.
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Objectives: Recent association studies by the Australo-Anglo-American Spondyloarthritis Consortium (TASC) in Caucasian European populations from Australia, North America and the UK have identified a number of genes as being associated with ankylosing spondylitis (AS). A candidate gene study in a Han Chinese population was performed based on these findings to identify associated genes in this population. Methods: A case-control study was performed in a Han Chinese population of patients with AS (n=775) and controls (n=1587) from Shanghai and Nanjing. All patients met the modified New York criteria for AS. The cases and controls were genotyped for 115 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) tagging IL23R, ERAP1, STAT3, JAK2, TNFRSF1A and TRADD, as well as other confirmation SNPs from the TASC study, using the Sequenom iPlex and the ABI OpenArray platforms. Statistical analysis of genotyped SNPs was performed using the Cochran - Armitage test for trend and meta-analysis was performed using METAL. SNPs in AS-associated genes in this study were then imputed using MaCH, and association with AS tested by logistic regression. Results: SNPs in TNFRSF1A (rs4149577, p=8.2×10-4), STAT3 (rs2293152, p=0.0015; rs1053005, p=0.017) and ERAP1 (rs27038, p=0.0091; rs27037, p=0.0092) were significantly associated with AS in Han Chinese. Association was also observed between AS and the intergenic region 2p15 (rs10865331, p=0.023). The lack of association between AS and IL23R in Han Chinese was confirmed (all SNPs p>0.1). Conclusions: The study results demonstrate for the first time that genetic polymorphisms in STAT3, TNFRSF1A and 2p15 are associated with AS in Han Chinese, suggesting common pathogenic mechanisms for the disease in Chinese and Caucasian European populations. Furthermore, previous findings demonstrating that ERAP1, but not IL23R, is associated with AS in Chinese patients were confirmed.