967 resultados para Bayesian hypothesis testing
Resumo:
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection poses one of the greatest challenges to tuberculosis (TB) control, with TB killing more people with HIV infection than any other condition. The standards in this chapter cover provider-initiated HIV counselling and testing and the care of HIV-infected patients with TB. All TB patients who have not previously been diagnosed with HIV infection should be encouraged to have an HIV test. Failing to do so is to deny people access to the care and treatment they might need, especially in the context of the wider availability of treatments that prevent infections associated with HIV A clearly defined plan of care for those found to be co-infected with TB and HIV should be in place., with procedures to ensure that the patient has access to this care before offering routine testing for HIV in persons with TB. It is acknowledged that people caring for TB patients should ensure that those who are HIV positive are transferred for the appropriate ongoing care once their TB treatment has been completed. In some cases, referral for specialised HIV-related treatment and care may be necessary during treatment for TB. The aim of these standards is to enable patients to remain as healthy as possible, whatever their HIV status.
Resumo:
Motivation: Understanding the patterns of association between polymorphisms at different loci in a population ( linkage disequilibrium, LD) is of fundamental importance in various genetic studies. Many coefficients were proposed for measuring the degree of LD, but they provide only a static view of the current LD structure. Generative models (GMs) were proposed to go beyond these measures, giving not only a description of the actual LD structure but also a tool to help understanding the process that generated such structure. GMs based in coalescent theory have been the most appealing because they link LD to evolutionary factors. Nevertheless, the inference and parameter estimation of such models is still computationally challenging. Results: We present a more practical method to build GM that describe LD. The method is based on learning weighted Bayesian network structures from haplotype data, extracting equivalence structure classes and using them to model LD. The results obtained in public data from the HapMap database showed that the method is a promising tool for modeling LD. The associations represented by the learned models are correlated with the traditional measure of LD D`. The method was able to represent LD blocks found by standard tools. The granularity of the association blocks and the readability of the models can be controlled in the method. The results suggest that the causality information gained by our method can be useful to tell about the conservability of the genetic markers and to guide the selection of subset of representative markers.
Resumo:
This paper describes the modeling of a weed infestation risk inference system that implements a collaborative inference scheme based on rules extracted from two Bayesian network classifiers. The first Bayesian classifier infers a categorical variable value for the weed-crop competitiveness using as input categorical variables for the total density of weeds and corresponding proportions of narrow and broad-leaved weeds. The inferred categorical variable values for the weed-crop competitiveness along with three other categorical variables extracted from estimated maps for the weed seed production and weed coverage are then used as input for a second Bayesian network classifier to infer categorical variables values for the risk of infestation. Weed biomass and yield loss data samples are used to learn the probability relationship among the nodes of the first and second Bayesian classifiers in a supervised fashion, respectively. For comparison purposes, two types of Bayesian network structures are considered, namely an expert-based Bayesian classifier and a naive Bayes classifier. The inference system focused on the knowledge interpretation by translating a Bayesian classifier into a set of classification rules. The results obtained for the risk inference in a corn-crop field are presented and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Several studies have shown that austenitic stainless steels are suitable for use in the final phases of orthodontic treatments, such as finishing and retention. These steels demonstrate appropriate mechanical properties, such as high ultimate tensile strength and good corrosion resistance. A new class of materials, the austenic-ferritic stainless steels, is substituting for austenitic stainless steels in several industrial applications where these properties are necessary. This work supports the hypothesis that orthodontic wires of austenic-ferritic stainless steels can replace austenitic stainless steels. The advantages are cost reduction and decrease of the nickel hypersensitivity effect in patients undergoing orthodontic treatments. The object of this study was to evaluate wires of austenitic-ferritic stainless steel SEW 410 Nr. 14517 (Cr26Ni6Mo3Cu3) produced by cold working through rolling and drawing processes. Tests were performed to evaluate the ultimate tensile strength, hardness, ductility, and formability. In accordance with technical standards the wires exhibited ultimate tensile strength and ductility suitable for orthodontic clinical applications. These austenitie-ferritic wires can be an alternative to substitute the common commercial wires of austenic stainless steels with the advantage of decreasing the nickel content.
Resumo:
In this work, an algorithm to compute the envelope of non-destructive testing (NDT) signals is proposed. This method allows increasing the speed and reducing the memory in extensive data processing. Also, this procedure presents advantage of preserving the data information for physical modeling applications of time-dependent measurements. The algorithm is conceived to be applied for analyze data from non-destructive testing. The comparison between different envelope methods and the proposed method, applied to Magnetic Bark Signal (MBN), is studied. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Instrumented indentation has been used to investigate the mechanical properties of BETAMATE 1496 (R) Epoxy adhesive. The properties of the adhesive were analyzed by measuring its hardness and its Young`s modulus in samples extracted from six different positions of the front door of a commercial passenger vehicle in two phases of processing: after application of the adhesive in the door assembling (""pre-cured"" state) and after final cure in the painting oven (""cured"" state). Special attention was given to setting the optimal parameters (""creep"" time and unloading time step) for the instrumented indentation testing for the present application. Young`s modulus values around 1.1 +/- 0.2 GPa and hardness values around 0.15 +/- 0.05 GPa were obtained for all samples, irrespective of the variation of the indentation parameters in the testing procedure and of the relative position of the adhesive in the door frame in both states. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The effect of precipitation on the corrosion resistance of AISI 316L(N) stainless steel previously exposed to creep tests at 600 degrees C for periods of up to 10 years, has been studied. The corrosion resistance was investigated in 2 M H(2)SO(4)+0.5 M NaCl+0.01 M KSCN solution at 30 degrees C by electrochemical methods. The results showed that the susceptibility to intergranular corrosion was highly affected by aging at 600 degrees C and creep testing time. The intergranular corrosion resistance decreased by more than twenty times when the creep testing time increased from 7500 h to 85,000 h. The tendency to passivation decreased and less protective films were formed on the creep tested samples. All tested samples also showed susceptibility to pitting. Grain boundary M(23)C(6) carbides were not found after long-term exposure at 600 degrees C and the corrosion behavior of the creep tested samples was attributed to intermetallic phases (mainly sigma phase) precipitation. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Joint generalized linear models and double generalized linear models (DGLMs) were designed to model outcomes for which the variability can be explained using factors and/or covariates. When such factors operate, the usual normal regression models, which inherently exhibit constant variance, will under-represent variation in the data and hence may lead to erroneous inferences. For count and proportion data, such noise factors can generate a so-called overdispersion effect, and the use of binomial and Poisson models underestimates the variability and, consequently, incorrectly indicate significant effects. In this manuscript, we propose a DGLM from a Bayesian perspective, focusing on the case of proportion data, where the overdispersion can be modeled using a random effect that depends on some noise factors. The posterior joint density function was sampled using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms, allowing inferences over the model parameters. An application to a data set on apple tissue culture is presented, for which it is shown that the Bayesian approach is quite feasible, even when limited prior information is available, thereby generating valuable insight for the researcher about its experimental results.
Resumo:
This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.
Resumo:
Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.
Resumo:
The objective of this study was to compare the responses of the Salmonella/microsome microsuspension assay with the new microplate fluctuation protocol (MPF) for the evaluation of the mutagenic activity of environmental samples. Organic extracts of total particulate atmospheric air samples, surface waters, and effluents were tested in dose-response experiments. The assays were performed with strain TA98 in the absence and presence of S9 mix. Both protocols produced similar results, despite the fact that the maximum score of the MPF is limited to 48 wells, whereas in the regular plate assay it is possible to count up to 1,500 colonies using an automatic counter. Similar sensitivities based on the lowest dose that resulted in a positive response were obtained for both assays. The MPF procedure is less laborious (e.g., all-liquid format, use of multi-channel pipettors) and allows for automation of the pipetting and dispensing steps, thus, reducing time of the analysis which is particularly important in environmental quality monitoring programs or in effect-directed analysis. The results show that the MPF procedure is a promising tool to test environmental samples for mutagenic activity. Environ. Mol. Mutagen. 51:31-38, 2010. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
Resumo:
The aim of this research was to perform a stability testing of spray- and spouted bed-dried extracts of Passiflora alata Dryander (Passion flower) under stress storage conditions. Spouted bed- and spray-dried extracts were characterized by determination of the average particle diameter (dP), apparent moisture content (XP), total flavonoid content (TF), and vitexin content. Smaller and more irregular particles were generated by the spouted bed system due to a higher attrition rate (surface erosion) inside the dryer. The SB dryer resulted in an end product with higher concentration of flavonoids (approximate to 10%) and lower moisture content (1.6%, dry basis) than the spray dryer, even with both dryers working at similar inlet drying air temperature and ratio between the extract feed flow rate to drying air flow rate (Ws/Wg). Samples of the spouted bed- and spray-dried extracts were stored at two different temperatures (34 and 45 degrees C) and two different relative humidities (52 and 63% RH for 34 degrees C; 52 and 60% RH for 45 degrees C) in order to perform the stability testing. The dried extracts were stored for 28 days and were analyzed every 4 days. The flavonoid vitexin served as the marker compound, which was assayed during the storage period. Results revealed shelf lives ranging from 9 to 184 days, depending on the drying process and storage conditions.
Resumo:
The received view of an ad hoc hypothesis is that it accounts for only the observation(s) it was designed to account for, and so non-adhocness is generally held to be necessary or important for an introduced hypothesis or modification to a theory. Attempts by Popper and several others to convincingly explicate this view, however, prove to be unsuccessful or of doubtful value, and familiar and firmer criteria for evaluating the hypotheses or modified theories so classified are characteristically available. These points are obscured largely because the received view fails to adequately separate psychology from methodology or to recognise ambiguities in the use of 'ad hoc'.
Resumo:
This paper examines the article system in interlanguage grammar focusing on Japanese learners of English, whose native language lacks articles. It will be demonstrated that for the acquisition of the English article system, count/mass distinctions and definiteness are the crucial factors. Although Japanese does not employ the article system to encode these aspects, it will be argued that they are nevertheless syntactically encoded through its classifier system. Hence, the problem for these learners must be to map these features onto the appropriate surface forms as the Missing Surface Inflection Hypothesis predicts (Prévost & White 2000). This suggestion will further be supported empirically by a fill-in-the article task. It will be concluded that these Japanese learners understand the English article system fairly well, possibly due to their native language, yet have problems with realizing the relevant features (i.e. count/mass distinctions and definiteness) in the target language.