954 resultados para Bayesian Networks Elicitation GIS Integration
Resumo:
The idea for organizing a cooperative market on Waterville Main Street was proposed by Aime Schwartz in the fall of 2008. The Co-op would entail an open market located on Main Street to provide fresh, local produce and crafts to town locals. Through shorter delivery distances and agreements with local farmers, the co-op theoretically will offer consumers lower prices on produce than can be found in conventional grocery stores, as well as an opportunity to support local agriculture. One of the tasks involved with organizing the Co-op is to source all of the produce from among the hundreds of farmers located in Maine. The purpose of this project is to show how Geographic Information System (GIS) tools can be used to help the Co-op and other businesses a) site nearby farms that carry desired produce and products, and b) determine which farms are closest to the business site. Using GIS for this purpose will make it easier and more efficient to source produce suppliers, and reduce the workload on business planners. GIS Network Analyst is a tool that provides network-based spatial analysis, and can be used in conjunction with traditional GIS technologies to determine not only the geometric distance between points, but also distance over existing networks (like roads). We used Network Analyst to find the closest produce suppliers to the Co-op for specific produce items, and compute how far they are over existing roads. This will enable business planners to source potential suppliers by distance before contacting individual farmers, allowing for more efficient use of their time and a faster planning process.
Resumo:
Canada releases over 150 billion litres of untreated and undertreated wastewater into the water environment every year1. To clean up urban wastewater, new Federal Wastewater Systems Effluent Regulations (WSER) on establishing national baseline effluent quality standards that are achievable through secondary wastewater treatment were enacted on July 18, 2012. With respect to the wastewater from the combined sewer overflows (CSO), the Regulations require the municipalities to report the annual quantity and frequency of effluent discharges. The City of Toronto currently has about 300 CSO locations within an area of approximately 16,550 hectares. The total sewer length of the CSO area is about 3,450 km and the number of sewer manholes is about 51,100. A system-wide monitoring of all CSO locations has never been undertaken due to the cost and practicality. Instead, the City has relied on estimation methods and modelling approaches in the past to allow funds that would otherwise be used for monitoring to be applied to the reduction of the impacts of the CSOs. To fulfill the WSER requirements, the City is now undertaking a study in which GIS-based hydrologic and hydraulic modelling is the approach. Results show the usefulness of this for 1) determining the flows contributing to the combined sewer system in the local and trunk sewers for dry weather flow, wet weather flow, and snowmelt conditions; 2) assessing hydraulic grade line and surface water depth in all the local and trunk sewers under heavy rain events; 3) analysis of local and trunk sewer capacities for future growth; and 4) reporting of the annual quantity and frequency of CSOs as per the requirements in the new Regulations. This modelling approach has also allowed funds to be applied toward reducing and ultimately eliminating the adverse impacts of CSOs rather than expending resources on unnecessary and costly monitoring.
Resumo:
One of the Main Subjects to Be Discussed, in Order to Adjust Latin American Economies to a Regional Integration Network, as Imposed By Mercosul or Other Economic Common Markets, is Related to the Employment and Other Labor Markets Public Policies. the Question to Be Posed Is: Having in Mind the Characteristics of Different Labor Markets and Labor Forces, What are the Impacts of Governmental Measures Presented in the Diverse Economic Conditions of Those Countries. Having in Mind These Impacts, This Paper Aims to Examine the Requisites to Adjust the Labor Structure Standards of Latin American Countries and What Would Be the Reforms to Be Performed By These Countries in Order to Prepare These Markets and Labor Forces to Adapt to Regional Integration Networks Represented By Mercosul, Alca or Other Common Markets. There are Evaluated the Impacts of the Globalization Process, Economic Stabilization and Reform Policies Undertaken By Some Selected Latin American Countries Since the Eighties on the Labor Structure Standards, Considering the Specific Adjustment Measures to Cope With the Negative Effects of These Policies. Next, Some Cases of Europe Union (Eu) Countries Measures to Prepare to Integration is Examined, in Order to Provide Some Elements to Better Understand the Possibilities to Handle With the Extensive Changes in External Conditions. in Sequence Some Statistical Indicatives of the Impacts of These Measures on the Occupational Structuring are Analyzed For a Group of Selected Latin American and Eu Countries.
Resumo:
The aim of this paper is to analyze extremal events using Generalized Pareto Distributions (GPD), considering explicitly the uncertainty about the threshold. Current practice empirically determines this quantity and proceeds by estimating the GPD parameters based on data beyond it, discarding all the information available be10w the threshold. We introduce a mixture model that combines a parametric form for the center and a GPD for the tail of the distributions and uses all observations for inference about the unknown parameters from both distributions, the threshold inc1uded. Prior distribution for the parameters are indirectly obtained through experts quantiles elicitation. Posterior inference is available through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Simulations are carried out in order to analyze the performance of our proposed mode1 under a wide range of scenarios. Those scenarios approximate realistic situations found in the literature. We also apply the proposed model to a real dataset, Nasdaq 100, an index of the financiai market that presents many extreme events. Important issues such as predictive analysis and model selection are considered along with possible modeling extensions.
Resumo:
Online geographic-databases have been growing increasingly as they have become a crucial source of information for both social networks and safety-critical systems. Since the quality of such applications is largely related to the richness and completeness of their data, it becomes imperative to develop adaptable and persistent storage systems, able to make use of several sources of information as well as enabling the fastest possible response from them. This work will create a shared and extensible geographic model, able to retrieve and store information from the major spatial sources available. A geographic-based system also has very high requirements in terms of scalability, computational power and domain complexity, causing several difficulties for a traditional relational database as the number of results increases. NoSQL systems provide valuable advantages for this scenario, in particular graph databases which are capable of modeling vast amounts of inter-connected data while providing a very substantial increase of performance for several spatial requests, such as finding shortestpath routes and performing relationship lookups with high concurrency. In this work, we will analyze the current state of geographic information systems and develop a unified geographic model, named GeoPlace Explorer (GE). GE is able to import and store spatial data from several online sources at a symbolic level in both a relational and a graph databases, where several stress tests were performed in order to find the advantages and disadvantages of each database paradigm.
Resumo:
GPS precise point positioning (PPP) can provide high precision 3-D coordinates. Combined pseudorange and carrier phase observables, precise ephemeris and satellite clock corrections, together with data from dual frequency receivers, are the key factors for providing such levels of precision (few centimeters). In general, results obtained from PPP are referenced to an arbitrary reference frame, realized from a previous free network adjustment, in which satellite state vectors, station coordinates and other biases are estimated together. In order to obtain consistent results, the coordinates have to be transformed to the relevant reference frame and the appropriate daily transformation parameters must be available. Furthermore, the coordinates have to be mapped to a chosen reference epoch. If a velocity field is not available, an appropriated model, such as NNR-NUVEL-IA, has to be used. The quality of the results provided by this approach was evaluated using data from the Brazilian Network for Continuous Monitoring of the Global Positioning System (RBMC), which was processed using GIPSY-OASIS 11 software. The results obtained were compared to SIRGAS 1995.4 and ITRF2000, and reached precision better than 2cm. A description of the fundamentals of the PPP approach and its application in the integration of regional GPS networks with ITRF is the main purpose of this paper.
Resumo:
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Resumo:
Energy policies and technological progress in the development of wind turbines have made wind power the fastest growing renewable power source worldwide. The inherent variability of this resource requires special attention when analyzing the impacts of high penetration on the distribution network. A time-series steady-state analysis is proposed that assesses technical issues such as energy export, losses, and short-circuit levels. A multiobjective programming approach based on the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA) is applied in order to find configurations that maximize the integration of distributed wind power generation (DWPG) while satisfying voltage and thermal limits. The approach has been applied to a medium voltage distribution network considering hourly demand and wind profiles for part of the U.K. The Pareto optimal solutions obtained highlight the drawbacks of using a single demand and generation scenario, and indicate the importance of appropriate substation voltage settings for maximizing the connection of MPG.
Resumo:
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
Resumo:
We propose alternative approaches to analyze residuals in binary regression models based on random effect components. Our preferred model does not depend upon any tuning parameter, being completely automatic. Although the focus is mainly on accommodation of outliers, the proposed methodology is also able to detect them. Our approach consists of evaluating the posterior distribution of random effects included in the linear predictor. The evaluation of the posterior distributions of interest involves cumbersome integration, which is easily dealt with through stochastic simulation methods. We also discuss different specifications of prior distributions for the random effects. The potential of these strategies is compared in a real data set. The main finding is that the inclusion of extra variability accommodates the outliers, improving the adjustment of the model substantially, besides correctly indicating the possible outliers.
Resumo:
We analyze the average performance of a general class of learning algorithms for the nondeterministic polynomial time complete problem of rule extraction by a binary perceptron. The examples are generated by a rule implemented by a teacher network of similar architecture. A variational approach is used in trying to identify the potential energy that leads to the largest generalization in the thermodynamic limit. We restrict our search to algorithms that always satisfy the binary constraints. A replica symmetric ansatz leads to a learning algorithm which presents a phase transition in violation of an information theoretical bound. Stability analysis shows that this is due to a failure of the replica symmetric ansatz and the first step of replica symmetry breaking (RSB) is studied. The variational method does not determine a unique potential but it allows construction of a class with a unique minimum within each first order valley. Members of this class improve on the performance of Gibbs algorithm but fail to reach the Bayesian limit in the low generalization phase. They even fail to reach the performance of the best binary, an optimal clipping of the barycenter of version space. We find a trade-off between a good low performance and early onset of perfect generalization. Although the RSB may be locally stable we discuss the possibility that it fails to be the correct saddle point globally. ©2000 The American Physical Society.
Resumo:
In this article we describe a feature extraction algorithm for pattern classification based on Bayesian Decision Boundaries and Pruning techniques. The proposed method is capable of optimizing MLP neural classifiers by retaining those neurons in the hidden layer that realy contribute to correct classification. Also in this article we proposed a method which defines a plausible number of neurons in the hidden layer based on the stem-and-leaf graphics of training samples. Experimental investigation reveals the efficiency of the proposed method. © 2002 IEEE.
Resumo:
Since the 80s huge efforts have been made to utilize renewable energy sources to generate electric power. An important issue about using renewable energy sources is a Distribution Management System (DMS) in presence of dispersed generators. This paper reports some aspects of integration of the dispersed generators in the DMS. Besides, an investigation of impact of the dispersed generators on the overall performances of the distribution systems in steady state is performed. In order to observe losses in the distribution networks with dispersed generators, several loss allocation methods are applied. Results obtained from case study using IEEE test network, are presented and discussed. © 2003 IEEE.
Resumo:
Includes bibliography
Resumo:
Incluye Bibliografía