Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Vom Finanz- zum Wissenschaftsbetrug : Methode, den Irrungen in der medizinischen Literatur beizukommen [From financial to scientific fraud : Methods to detect discrepancies in the medical literature].

Fraud is as old as Mankind. There are an enormous number of historical documents which show the interaction between truth and untruth; therefore it is not really surprising that the prevalence of publication discrepancies is increasing. More surprising is that new cases especially in the medical field generate such a huge astonishment. In financial mathematics a statistical tool for detection of fraud is known which uses the knowledge of Newcomb and Benford regarding the distribution of natural numbers. This distribution is not equal and lower numbers are more likely to be detected compared to higher ones. In this investigation all numbers contained in the blinded abstracts of the 2009 annual meeting of the Swiss Society of Anesthesia and Resuscitation (SGAR) were recorded and analyzed regarding the distribution. A manipulated abstract was also included in the investigation. The χ(2)-test was used to determine statistical differences between expected and observed counts of numbers. There was also a faked abstract integrated in the investigation. A p<0.05 was considered significant. The distribution of the 1,800 numbers in the 77 submitted abstracts followed Benford's law. The manipulated abstract was detected by statistical means (difference in expected versus observed p<0.05). Statistics cannot prove whether the content is true or not but can give some serious hints to look into the details in such conspicuous material. These are the first results of a test for the distribution of numbers presented in medical research.

Multivariate QST-FST comparisons: a neutrality test for the evolution of the g matrix in structured populations.

Neutrality tests in quantitative genetics provide a statistical framework for the detection of selection on polygenic traits in wild populations. However, the existing method based on comparisons of divergence at neutral markers and quantitative traits (Q(st)-F(st)) suffers from several limitations that hinder a clear interpretation of the results with typical empirical designs. In this article, we propose a multivariate extension of this neutrality test based on empirical estimates of the among-populations (D) and within-populations (G) covariance matrices by MANOVA. A simple pattern is expected under neutrality: D = 2F(st)/(1 - F(st))G, so that neutrality implies both proportionality of the two matrices and a specific value of the proportionality coefficient. This pattern is tested using Flury's framework for matrix comparison [common principal-component (CPC) analysis], a well-known tool in G matrix evolution studies. We show the importance of using a Bartlett adjustment of the test for the small sample sizes typically found in empirical studies. We propose a dual test: (i) that the proportionality coefficient is not different from its neutral expectation [2F(st)/(1 - F(st))] and (ii) that the MANOVA estimates of mean square matrices between and among populations are proportional. These two tests combined provide a more stringent test for neutrality than the classic Q(st)-F(st) comparison and avoid several statistical problems. Extensive simulations of realistic empirical designs suggest that these tests correctly detect the expected pattern under neutrality and have enough power to efficiently detect mild to strong selection (homogeneous, heterogeneous, or mixed) when it is occurring on a set of traits. This method also provides a rigorous and quantitative framework for disentangling the effects of different selection regimes and of drift on the evolution of the G matrix. We discuss practical requirements for the proper application of our test in empirical studies and potential extensions.

Schistosomiasis mansoni: follow-up of control program based on parasitologic and serologic methods in a Brazilian community of low endemicity

A field survey on schistosomiais was carried out in 1998, in the municipality of Pedro de Toledo, a low endemic area in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. According to the parasitologic Kato-Katz method, the prevalence rate was 1.6%, with an infection intensity of 40.9 eggs per gram of stool. By the immunofluorescence test (IFT) for detection of IgG and IgM antibodies in the serum, IgG-IFT and IgM-IFT, respectively, prevalence indices of 33.2% and 33.5% were observed. To assess the impact of the schistosomiasis control program in the area, parasitologic and serologic data obtained in 1998, analyzed according to the age, sex, and residence zone, were compared to previous data obtained in a epidemiologic study carried out in 1980, when prevalence indices were of 22.8% and 55.5%, respectively by Kato-Katz and IgG-IFT. A significant fall of the prevalence was observed, indicating that the control measures were effective. Nonetheless, residual transmission was observed, demonstrating the need for a joint effort to include new approaches for better understanding the real situation and improving the control of the disease in low endemic areas.

Reliability and validity of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) imbedded within a general health risk screening questionnaire: results of a survey in 332 primary care patients.

BACKGROUND: Self-administered, general health risk screening questionnaires that are administered while patients wait in the doctor's office may be a reasonable and timesaving approach to address the requirements of preventive medicine in a typical 10-min medical visit. The psychometric characteristics of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) incorporated within a health questionnaire (H-AUDIT) have not been examined. METHODS: The reliability and validity of the self-administered AUDIT were compared between the H-AUDIT and the AUDIT used as a single scale (S-AUDIT) in 332 primary care patients. RESULTS: No major demographic or alcohol use characteristics were found between the 166 subjects who completed the H-AUDIT and the 166 individuals who completed the S-AUDIT. The test-retest reliability of the 166 subjects who completed the H-AUDIT [estimated by Spearman correlation coefficient at a 6-week interval (0.88), internal consistency (total correlation coefficients for all items ranged from 0.38 to 0.69; Cronbach alpha index 0.85), and the sensitivity and specificity of the H-AUDIT were used to identify at-risk drinkers' areas under receiver operating characteristic (0.77) and alcohol-dependent subjects' areas under receiver operating characteristic (0.89)] was similar to the same measurements obtained with the 166 individuals who completed the S-AUDIT. CONCLUSIONS: The AUDIT incorporated in a health risk screening questionnaire is a reliable and valid self-administered instrument to identify at-risk drinkers and alcohol-dependent individuals in primary care settings.

Use of molecular methods in identification of Candida Species and evaluation of fluconazole resistance

The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of one of the molecular typing methods such as PCR (polymerase chain reaction) following by RFLP (restriction fragment length polymorphism) analysis in the identification of Candida species and then to differentiate the identified azole susceptible and resistant Candida albicans strains by using AP-PCR (arbitrarily primed-polymerase chain reaction). The identification of Candida species by PCR and RFLP analysis was based on the size and primary structural variation of rDNA intergenic spacer regions (ITS). Forty-four clinical Candida isolates comprising 5 species were included to the study. The amplification products were digested individually with 3 different restriction enzymes: HaeIII, DdeI, and BfaI. All the isolates tested yielded the expected band patterns by PCR and RFLP analysis. The results obtained from this study demonstrate that Candida species can be differentiated as C. albicans and non-C. albicans strains only by using HaeIII restriction enzyme and BfaI maintains the differentiation of these non-C. albicans species. After identification Candida species with RFLP analysis, C. albicans strains were included to the AP-PCR test. By using AP-PCR, fluconazole susceptible and resistant strains were differentiated. Nine fluconazole susceptible and 24 fluconazole resistant C. albicans were included to the study. Fluconazole resistant strains had more bands when evaluating with the agarose gel electrophoresis but there were no specific discriminatory band patterns to warrant the differentiation of the resistance. The identification of Candida species with the amplification of intergenic spacer region and RFLP analysis is a practical, short, and a reliable method when comparing to the conventional time-consuming Candida species identification methods. The fluconazole susceptibility testing with AP-PCR seems to be a promising method but further studies must be performed for more specific results.

Evaluation of four methods for detecting the beta-lactamase activity in Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolated in Cuba

Four methods (chromogenic, acidimetric, inhibition, and iodometric) for demonstration of the beta-lactamase production by 70 isolates of Neisseria gonorrhoeae, were evaluated in Cuba. There was 100% correlation between all beta-lactamase methods and the standardized penicillin dilution susceptibility test for penicillinase-non-producing N. gonorrhoeae. For penicillinase-producing N. gonorrhoeae strains, there was a perfect correlation between the chromogenic method and penicillin susceptibility testing, but one and two strains failed to give a positive result for beta-lactamase with the inhibition/acidimetric and the iodometric methods, respectively. There was a high concordance between the chromogenic method, considered as gold standard and the rest of penicillinase tests evaluated: Kappa Index (KI) = 0.98 for inhibition/acidimetric methods and KI = 0.97 for the iodometric method. The four methods evaluated were accurate, reproducible, easily readable, economical, and ease to use for screening primary isolates of N. gonorrhoeae in Cuba. We recommended the use of the inhibition method, when testing the penicillinase activity in gonococcal isolates in provincial and municipal reference laboratories.

Comparison between splenic and lymph node aspirations as sampling methods for the parasitological detection of Leishmania chagasi infection in dogs

The sensitivities of spleen and lymph node cultures for the diagnosis of canine visceral leishmaniasis were compared in 64 anti-Leishmania antibody positive dogs from an endemic area in Brazil. The sensitivity of spleen cultures for Leishmania detection was 97.9%; in lymph node cultures it was 25%. Positive spleen culture was more frequent (p = 0.048, Fisher's exact probability test) in symptomatic (28 out of 33 animals) than in asymptomatic animals (19 out of 31 animals). These results support the use of spleen instead of lymph node aspiration as the choice method for the parasitological diagnosis of the infection.

Rapid Diagnostic Test-Based Management of Malaria: An Effectiveness Study in Papua New Guinean Infants With Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax Malaria.

Background. In malaria-endemic areas it is recommended that febrile children be tested for malaria by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) or blood slide (BS) and receive effective malaria treatment only if results are positive. However, RDTs are known to perform less well for Plasmodium vivax. We evaluated the safety of withholding antimalarial drugs from young Papua New Guinean children with negative RDT results in areas with high levels of both Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax infections. Methods. longitudinal prospective study of children aged 3-27 months visiting outpatient clinics for fever. RDT was administered at first visit. RDT and microscopy were performed if children returned because of persistent symptoms. Outcomes were rates of reattendance and occurrence of severe illnesses. Results. Of 5670 febrile episodes, 3942 (70%) involved a negative RDT result. In 133 cases (3.4%), the children reattended the clinic within 7 days for fever, of whom 29 (0.7%) were parasitemic by RDT or microscopy. Of children who reattended, 24 (0.7%) presented with a severe illness: 2 had lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) with low-density P. vivax on BS; 2 received a diagnosis of P. vivax malaria on the basis of RDT but BSs were negative; 16 had LRTIs; 3 had alternative diagnoses. Of these 24, 22 were cured at day 28. Two children died of illnesses other than malaria and were RDT and BS negative at the initial and subsequent visits. Conclusion. Treatment for malaria based on RDT results is safe and feasible even in infants living in areas with moderate to high endemicity for both P. falciparum and P. vivax infections.

Methods for detection and confirmation of Hematide?/peginesatide in anti-doping samples.

Since the 1990's, cheating athletes have abused substances to increase their oxygen transport capabilities; among these substances, recombinant EPO is the most well known. Currently, other investigational pharmaceutical products are able to produce an effect similar to EPO but without having chemical structures related to EPO; these are the synthetic erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESAs). Peginesatide (also known as Hematide?) is being developed by Affymax and Takeda and, if approved by regulatory authorities, could soon be released on the international market. To detect potential athletic abuse of this product and deter athletes who consider cheating, we initiated a collaboration to implement a detection test for anti-doping purposes. Peginesatide is a synthetic, PEGylated, investigational, peptide-based erythropoiesis-stimulating agent that is designed and engineered to stimulate specifically the erythropoietin receptor dimer that governs erythropoiesis. It is undetectable using current anti-doping tests due to its lack of sequence homology to EPO. To detect and deter potential abuse of peginesatide, we initiated an industry/antidoping laboratory collaboration to develop and validate screening and confirmation assays so that they would be available before peginesatide reaches the market. We describe a screening ELISA and a confirmation assay consisting of immune-purification followed by separation with SDS-PAGE and revelation with Western double blotting. Both assays can detect 0.5 ng/mL concentrations of peginesatide in blood samples, enabling detection for several days after administration of a physiologically relevant dose. This initial report describes experimental characterization of these assays, including testing with a blinded set of samples from a clinical study conducted in healthy volunteers.

Cardiorespiratory responses to the 30-15 intermittent ice test

PURPOSE: In this study, the authors compared the cardiorespiratory responses between the 30-15 Intermittent Ice Test (30-15(IIT)) and the 30-15 Intermittent Fitness Test (30-15(IFT)) in semiprofessional hockey players. METHODS: Ten players (age 24 ± 6 y) from a Swiss League B team performed the 30-15(IIT) and 30-15(IFT) in random order (13 ± 4 d between trials). Cardiorespiratory variables were measured with a portable gas analyzer. Ventilatory threshold (VT), respiratory-compensation point (RCP), and maximal speeds were measured for both tests. Peak blood lactate ([La(peak)]) was measured at 1 min postexercise. RESULTS: Compared with 30-15(IFT), 30-15(IIT) peak heart rate (HR(peak); mean ± SD 185 ± 7 vs 189 ± 10 beats/min, P = .02) and peak oxygen consumption (VO(2peak)); 60 ± 7 vs 62.7 ± 4 mL/min/kg, P = .02) were lower, whereas [La(peak)] was higher (10.9 ± 1 vs 8.6 ± 2 mmol/L, P < .01) for the 30-15(IIT). VT and RCP values during the 30-15(IIT) and 30-15(IFT) were similar for %HR(peak) (76.3% ± 5% vs 75.5% ± 3%, P = .53, and 90.6% ± 3% vs. 89.8% ± 3%, P = .45) and % VO(2peak) (62.3% ± 5% vs 64.2% ± 6%, P = .46, and 85.9% ± 5% vs 84.0% ± 7%, P = .33). VO(2peak ))(r = .93, P < .001), HR(peak) (r = .86, P = .001), and final velocities (r = .69, P = .029) were all largely to almost perfectly correlated. CONCLUSIONS: Despite slightly lower maximal cardiorespiratory responses than in the field-running version of the test, the on-ice 30-15(IIT) is of practical interest since it is a specific maximal test with a higher anaerobic component.

A flow cytometry based oligotrophic pollutant exposure test to detect bacterial growth inhibition and cell injury.

Toxicity of chemical pollutants in aquatic environments is often addressed by assays that inquire reproductive inhibition of test microorganisms, such as algae or bacteria. Those tests, however, assess growth of populations as a whole via macroscopic methods such as culture turbidity or colony-forming units. Here we use flow cytometry to interrogate the fate of individual cells in low-density populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens SV3 exposed or not under oligotrophic conditions to a number of common pollutants, some of which derive from oil contamination. Cells were stained at regular time intervals during the exposure assay with fluorescent dyes that detect membrane injury (i.e., live-dead assay). Reduction of population growth rates was observed upon toxicant insult and depended on the type of toxicant. Modeling and cell staining indicate that population growth rate decrease is a combined effect of an increased number of injured cells that may or may not multiply, and live cells dividing at normal growth rates. The oligotrophic assay concept presented here could be a useful complement for existing biomarker assays in compliance with new regulations on chemical effect studies or, more specifically, for judging recovery after exposure to fluctuating toxicant conditions.

Evaluation of rapid alternative methods for drug susceptibility testing in clinical isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

A study was carried out to compare the performance of a commercial method (MGIT) and four inexpensive drug susceptibility methods: nitrate reductase assay (NRA), microscopic observation drug susceptibility (MODS) assay, MTT test, and broth microdilution method (BMM). A total of 64 clinical isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis were studied. The Lowenstein-Jensen proportion method (PM) was used as gold standard. MGIT, NRA, MODS, and MTT results were available on an average of less than 10 days, whereas BMM results could be reported in about 20 days. Most of the evaluated tests showed excellent performance for isoniazid and rifampicin, with sensitivity and specificity values > 90%. With most of the assays, sensitivity for ethambutol was low (62-87%) whereas for streptomycin, sensitivity values ranged from 84 to 100%; NRA-discrepancies were associated with cultures with a low proportion of EMB-resistant organisms while most discrepancies with quantitative tests (MMT and BMM) were seen with isolates whose minimal inhibitory concentrations fell close the cutoff. MGIT is reliable but still expensive. NRA is the most inexpensive and easiest method to perform without changing the organization of the routine PM laboratory performance. While MODS, MTT, and BMM, have the disadvantage from the point of view of biosafety, they offer the possibility of detecting partial resistant strains. This study shows a very good level of agreement of the four low-cost methods compared to the PM for rapid detection of isoniazid, rifampicin and streptomycin resistance (Kappa values > 0.8); more standardization is needed for ethambutol.

Detection of rifampin resistance patterns in Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains isolated in Iran by polymerase chain reaction-single-strand conformation polymorphism and direct sequencing methods

Mutations in the rpoB locus confer conformational changes leading to defective binding of rifampin (RIF) to rpoB and consequently resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Polymerase chain reaction-single-strand conformation polymorphism (PCR-SSCP) was established as a rapid screening test for the detection of mutations in the rpoB gene, and direct sequencing has been unambiguously applied to characterize mutations. A total of 37 of Iranian isolates of M. tuberculosis, 16 sensitive and 21 resistant to RIF, were used in this study. A 193-bp region of the rpoB gene was amplified and PCR-SSCP patterns were determined by electrophoresis in 10% acrylamide gel and silver staining. Also, 21 samples of 193-bp rpoB amplicons with different PCR-SSCP patterns from RIFr and 10 from RIFs were sequenced. Seven distinguishable PCR-SSCP patterns were recognized in the 21 Iranian RIFr strains, while 15 out of 16 RIFs isolates demonstrated PCR-SSCP banding patterns similar to that of sensitive standard strain H37Rv. However one of the sensitive isolates demonstrated a different pattern. There were seen six different mutations in the amplified region of rpoB gene: codon 516(GAC/GTC), 523(GGG/GGT), 526(CAC/TAC), 531(TCG/TTG), 511(CTG/TTG), and 512(AGC/TCG). This study demonstrated the high specificity (93.8%) and sensitivity (95.2%) of PCR-SSCP method for detection of mutation in rpoB gene; 85.7% of RIFr strains showed a single mutation and 14.3% had no mutations. Three strains showed mutations caused polymorphism. Our data support the common notion that rifampin resistance genotypes are generally present mutations in codons 531 and 526, most frequently found in M. tuberculosis populations regardless of geographic origin.

The "help" question doesn't help when screening for major depression: external validation of the three-question screening test for primary care patients managed for physical complaints.

BACKGROUND: Major depression, although frequent in primary care, is commonly hidden behind multiple physical complaints that are often the first and only reason for patient consultation. Major depression can be screened by two validated questions that are easier to use in primary care than the full DSM-IV criteria. A third question, called the "help" question, improves the specificity without apparently decreasing the sensitivity of this screening procedure. We validated the abbreviated screening procedure for major depression with and without the "help" question in primary care patients managed for a physical complaint. METHODS: This diagnostic accuracy study used data from a cohort study called SODA (for SOmatisation Depression Anxiety ) conducted by 24 general practitioners (GPs) in western Switzerland that included patients over 18 years of age with at least one physical complaint at index consultation. Major depression was identified with the full Patient Health Questionnaire. GPs were asked to screen patients for major depression with the three screening questions one year after inclusion. RESULTS: Out of 937 patients with at least one physical complaint, 751 were eligible one year after index consultation. Major depression was diagnosed in 69/724 (9.5%) patients. The sensitivity and specificity of the two-question method alone were 91.3% (95% confidence interval 81.4-96.4%) and 65.0% (95% confidence interval 61.2-68.6%), respectively. Adding the "help" question decreased the sensitivity (59.4% ; 95% confidence interval 47.0-70.9%) but improved the specificity (88.2% ; 95% confidence interval 85.4-90.5%) of the three-question method. CONCLUSIONS: The use of two screening questions for major depression was associated with high sensitivity and low specificity in primary care patients presenting a physical complaint. Adding the "help" question improved the specificity but clearly decreased the sensitivity; when using the "help" question; four out of ten patients with depression will be missed, compared to only one out of ten with the two-question method. Therefore, the "help" question is not useful as a screening question, but may help discussing management strategies.