COSMOS - Congestion management strategies and methods in urban sites.

The paper describes the strategies for Congestion and Incident Management (CIM) on the basis of Automatic Congestion and Incident Detection (ACID) that COSMOS will develop, implement in SCOOT, UTOPIA and MOTION, and validate and demonstrate in London, Piraeus and Torino. Four levels of operation were defined for CIM: strategies, tactics, tools and realisation. The strategies for CIM form the top level of this hierarchy. They have to reflect the strategic requirements of the system operators. The tactics are the means that can be employed by the strategies to achieve particular goals in particular situations. The tools that are used by the tactics relate to the elements of the signal plan and the ways in which they can be modified. Strategies, tactics and tools are generally common to all three systems, while the realisation of individual strategies and tactical decisions, through the use of particular common sets of tools, will generally be system specific. For the covering abstract, see IRRD 490001.

Non-Perturbative Methods in Quantum Field Theory and Quantum Gravity

This thesis considers non-perturbative methods in quantum field theory with applications to gravity and cosmology. In particular, there are chapters on black hole holography, inflationary model building, and the conformal bootstrap.

SEMIPARAMETRIC METHODS IN THE ESTIMATION OF TAIL PROBABILITIES AND EXTREME QUANTILES

In quantitative risk analysis, the problem of estimating small threshold exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles arise ubiquitously in bio-surveillance, economics, natural disaster insurance actuary, quality control schemes, etc. A useful way to make an assessment of extreme events is to estimate the probabilities of exceeding large threshold values and extreme quantiles judged by interested authorities. Such information regarding extremes serves as essential guidance to interested authorities in decision making processes. However, in such a context, data are usually skewed in nature, and the rarity of exceedance of large threshold implies large fluctuations in the distribution's upper tail, precisely where the accuracy is desired mostly. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is a branch of statistics that characterizes the behavior of upper or lower tails of probability distributions. However, existing methods in EVT for the estimation of small threshold exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles often lead to poor predictive performance in cases where the underlying sample is not large enough or does not contain values in the distribution's tail. In this dissertation, we shall be concerned with an out of sample semiparametric (SP) method for the estimation of small threshold probabilities and extreme quantiles. The proposed SP method for interval estimation calls for the fusion or integration of a given data sample with external computer generated independent samples. Since more data are used, real as well as artificial, under certain conditions the method produces relatively short yet reliable confidence intervals for small exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles.

I. Quantal effects in biochemical cooperativity and a proposed mechanism for the differentiation of calcium signaling in synaptic plasticity. II. Evolutionary algorithms for the optimization of methods in computational chemistry

In Part 1 of this thesis, we propose that biochemical cooperativity is a fundamentally non-ideal process. We show quantal effects underlying biochemical cooperativity and highlight apparent ergodic breaking at small volumes. The apparent ergodic breaking manifests itself in a divergence of deterministic and stochastic models. We further predict that this divergence of deterministic and stochastic results is a failure of the deterministic methods rather than an issue of stochastic simulations.

Ergodic breaking at small volumes may allow these molecular complexes to function as switches to a greater degree than has previously been shown. We propose that this ergodic breaking is a phenomenon that the synapse might exploit to differentiate Ca$^{2+}$ signaling that would lead to either the strengthening or weakening of a synapse. Techniques such as lattice-based statistics and rule-based modeling are tools that allow us to directly confront this non-ideality. A natural next step to understanding the chemical physics that underlies these processes is to consider \textit{in silico} specifically atomistic simulation methods that might augment our modeling efforts.

In the second part of this thesis, we use evolutionary algorithms to optimize \textit{in silico} methods that might be used to describe biochemical processes at the subcellular and molecular levels. While we have applied evolutionary algorithms to several methods, this thesis will focus on the optimization of charge equilibration methods. Accurate charges are essential to understanding the electrostatic interactions that are involved in ligand binding, as frequently discussed in the first part of this thesis.

Inverse Spectral Methods in Acoustic Normal Mode Velocimetry of High Reynolds Number Spherical Couette Flows

Experimental geophysical fluid dynamics often examines regimes of fluid flow infeasible for computer simulations. Velocimetry of zonal flows present in these regimes brings many challenges when the fluid is opaque and vigorously rotating; spherical Couette flows with molten metals are one such example. The fine structure of the acoustic spectrum can be related to the fluid’s velocity field, and inverse spectral methods can be used to predict and, with sufficient acoustic data, mathematically reconstruct the velocity field. The methods are to some extent inherited from helioseismology. This work develops a Finite Element Method suitable to matching the geometries of experimental setups, as well as modelling the acoustics based on that geometry and zonal flows therein. As an application, this work uses the 60-cm setup Dynamo 3.5 at the University of Maryland Nonlinear Dynamics Laboratory. Additionally, results obtained using a small acoustic data set from recent experiments in air are provided.

Using Research Methods in Human Computer Interaction to Design Technology for Resilience

Research in human computer interaction (HCI) covers both technological and human behavioural concerns. As a consequence, the contributions made in HCI research tend to be aware to either engineering or the social sciences. In HCI the purpose of practical research contributions is to reveal unknown insights about human behaviour and its relationship to technology. Practical research methods normally used in HCI include formal experiments, field experiments, field studies, interviews, focus groups, surveys, usability tests, case studies, diary studies, ethnography, contextual inquiry, experience sampling, and automated data collection. In this paper, we report on our experience using the evaluation methods focus groups, surveys and interviews and how we adopted these methods to develop artefacts: either interface’s design or information and technological systems. Four projects are examples of the different methods application to gather information about user’s wants, habits, practices, concerns and preferences. The goal was to build an understanding of the attitudes and satisfaction of the people who might interact with a technological artefact or information system. Conversely, we intended to design for information systems and technological applications, to promote resilience in organisations (a set of routines that allow to recover from obstacles) and user’s experiences. Organisations can here also be viewed within a system approach, which means that the system perturbations even failures could be characterized and improved. The term resilience has been applied to everything from the real estate, to the economy, sports, events, business, psychology, and more. In this study, we highlight that resilience is also made up of a number of different skills and abilities (self-awareness, creating meaning from other experiences, self-efficacy, optimism, and building strong relationships) that are a few foundational ingredients, which people should use along with the process of enhancing an organisation’s resilience. Resilience enhances knowledge of resources available to people confronting existing problems.

Teen Girls’ Perspectives on Their Current Dietary Habits and Food Choices: A Qualitative Study in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Rapid socioeconomic development in Saudi Arabia, as a result of oil revenues, has had profound effects on people’s lifestyles, including the transformation of people’s dietary habits. Such dietary transformations, known as the nutrition transition, are common in countries undergoing rapid socioeconomic changes. This transition is significant in Saudi Arabia as the traditional Saudi diet is considered a healthy one. Adoption of the Western diet has had negative health effects on the Saudi population, especially adolescents. As evidenced in many studies, adolescents are the most affected population when it comes to changes in dietary habits and physical activity. Adolescence is a vulnerable stage of life when dietary habits are developed, often lasting into adulthood, and may not be easily changed. In the case of Saudi Arabia, youth or adolescents represent almost 60% of the population; therefore, the eating habits they develop now could have profound consequences for population health in the future. To develop effective health promotion strategies, it is important to understand the sociocultural factors that influence the dietary habits and food choices of Saudi teens. I conducted two semi-structured, open-ended interviews, using photo-elicitation techniques, with 12 Saudi girls, aged 15-16 years. Analysis of the data shows four factors that pulled the participants toward eating home cooked traditional food and five factors that pushed participants away from eating home cooked traditional foods. The research suggests that despite the attractiveness of modern, Western ways of eating for Saudi teen girls, parents still play a key role in encouraging and supporting them to eat healthy food.

Geometrical Methods in Multivariate Risk Management: Algorithms and Applications

This thesis builds a framework for evaluating downside risk from multivariate data via a special class of risk measures (RM). The peculiarity of the analysis lies in getting rid of strong data distributional assumptions and in orientation towards the most critical data in risk management: those with asymmetries and heavy tails. At the same time, under typical assumptions, such as the ellipticity of the data probability distribution, the conformity with classical methods is shown. The constructed class of RM is a multivariate generalization of the coherent distortion RM, which possess valuable properties for a risk manager. The design of the framework is twofold. The first part contains new computational geometry methods for the high-dimensional data. The developed algorithms demonstrate computability of geometrical concepts used for constructing the RM. These concepts bring visuality and simplify interpretation of the RM. The second part develops models for applying the framework to actual problems. The spectrum of applications varies from robust portfolio selection up to broader spheres, such as stochastic conic optimization with risk constraints or supervised machine learning.

A qualitative impairment in face perception in Alzheimer’s disease : evidence from a reduced face inversion effect

Prevalent face recognition difficulties in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have typically been attributed to the underlying episodic and semantic memory impairment. The aim of the current study was to determine if AD patients are also impaired at the perceptual level for faces, more specifically at extracting a visual representation of an individual face. To address this question, we investigated the matching of simultaneously presented individual faces and of other nonface familiar shapes (cars), at both upright and inverted orientation, in a group of mild AD patients and in a group of healthy older controls matched for age and education. AD patients showed a reduced inversion effect (i.e., larger performance for upright than inverted stimuli) for faces, but not for cars, both in terms of error rates and response times. While healthy participants showed a much larger decrease in performance for faces than for cars with inversion, the inversion effect did not differ significantly for faces and cars in AD. This abnormal inversion effect for faces was observed in a large subset of individual patients with AD. These results suggest that AD patients have deficits in higher-level visual processes, more specifically at perceiving individual faces, a function that relies on holistic representations specific to upright face stimuli. These deficits, combined with their memory impairment, may contribute to the difficulties in recognizing familiar people that are often reported in patients suffering from the disease and by their caregivers.

Catch composition, catch rates and size selectivity of three long-line methods in the Algarve (southern Portugal)

Three long-line methods have been studied in the Algarve: 1) small-hook long-line for inshore (less than 30 m) ‘white’ sea breams (Sparidae); 2) small-hook long-line for deeper water (40-60 m) ‘red’ sea breams; and 3) deep water (500-700 m) semi-pelagic long-line for hake Merluccius merluccius (Linnaeus, 1758). Selectivity studies were carried out with three hook sizes in the first two cases: Mustad round-bent Quality 2369 hooks, numbers 15, 13, and 11, baited with a standardsized razor-shell Ensis siliqua (Linnaeus, 1758). Four hook sizes (numbers 10, 9, 7, and 5) of Stell round-bent, eyed hooks were used in the semi-pelagic long-line selectivity study, baited with a half of a standard-sized sardine. Some factors affecting catch composition and catch rates of the small hook long-lines were also evaluated: bait, gangion length, setting time, fishing ground, and depth. Species diversity was relatively high, with 40, 36 and 27 species, respectively, in the three studies. However, the catches were dominated by a limited number of species. Catch rates (number of fish per 100 hooks) were variable (< 5 %; > 20 %), with a general decrease in catch rate with increasing hook size in all the studies. In general, the catch size distributions for the different hook sizes for each species were highly overlapping, with little or no evidence of differences in size selectivity. Hooks caught a wide size-range for each species, with few or no illegal-sized fish, in most cases. Some implications of these results for the management of multi-species, multi-gear fisheries are discussed.

Subjective Aspects of People with Chronic Ulcers: a Qualitative Study in Brazil and Portugal

Introduction: The experience built in the process of living with chronic ulcer is marked by changes such as the inability to work, to relate socially and causes the need to adapt to a routine care. Understanding this network of meanings is important to develop techniques of individual or collective care. Objective: To understand impregnated subjectivities in the everyday experiences of Brazilian and Portuguese patients with chronic ulcers, in the light of the Oral History of life. Method: Comparative study with a qualitative approach, using Oral History as method and technique. The network of collaborators, formed by males and females, aged 39-82 years, was structured into two groups, one consisting of 06 people in Natal/RN, Brazil and another composed of 10 people in Évora/Portugal. In both groups, the narratives were collected through open questions, which were recorded, transcribed and analyzed by the technique of thematic content analysis. Results: Through the analysis, three themes were revealed: Social repercussion in Brazil and in Portugal; Trajectory of theinjured person; and Coping mechanisms. Conclusion: Changes were observed in social life, leading contributors to isolation, in addition to confronting the stigma experienced. There were also identified points as the reinterpretation of chronic wound carrier about their disease and coping strategies of their chroniccondition.

Machine Learning Unsupervised Methods in the Design of an On-board Health Monitoring System for Satellite Applications

The dissertation starts by providing a description of the phenomena related to the increasing importance recently acquired by satellite applications. The spread of such technology comes with implications, such as an increase in maintenance cost, from which derives the interest in developing advanced techniques that favor an augmented autonomy of spacecrafts in health monitoring. Machine learning techniques are widely employed to lay a foundation for effective systems specialized in fault detection by examining telemetry data. Telemetry consists of a considerable amount of information; therefore, the adopted algorithms must be able to handle multivariate data while facing the limitations imposed by on-board hardware features. In the framework of outlier detection, the dissertation addresses the topic of unsupervised machine learning methods. In the unsupervised scenario, lack of prior knowledge of the data behavior is assumed. In the specific, two models are brought to attention, namely Local Outlier Factor and One-Class Support Vector Machines. Their performances are compared in terms of both the achieved prediction accuracy and the equivalent computational cost. Both models are trained and tested upon the same sets of time series data in a variety of settings, finalized at gaining insights on the effect of the increase in dimensionality. The obtained results allow to claim that both models, combined with a proper tuning of their characteristic parameters, successfully comply with the role of outlier detectors in multivariate time series data. Nevertheless, under this specific context, Local Outlier Factor results to be outperforming One-Class SVM, in that it proves to be more stable over a wider range of input parameter values. This property is especially valuable in unsupervised learning since it suggests that the model is keen to adapting to unforeseen patterns.

Drug of abuse analysis: new methods in herbal and biological matrices for medicinal chemistry and forensic investigation

In this Ph.D. project, original and innovative approaches for the quali-quantitative analysis of abuse substances, as well as therapeutic agents with abuse potential and related compounds were designed, developed and validated for application to different fields such as forensics, clinical and pharmaceutical. All the parameters involved in the developed analytical workflows were properly and accurately optimised, from sample collection to sample pretreatment up to the instrumental analysis. Advanced dried blood microsampling technologies have been developed, able of bringing several advantages to the method as a whole, such as significant reduction of solvent use, feasible storage and transportation conditions and enhancement of analyte stability. At the same time, the use of capillary blood allows to increase subject compliance and overall method applicability by exploiting such innovative technologies. Both biological and non-biological samples involved in this project were subjected to optimised pretreatment techniques developed ad-hoc for each target analyte, making also use of advanced microextraction techniques. Finally, original and advanced instrumental analytical methods have been developed based on high and ultra-high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC,UHPLC) coupled to different detection means (mainly mass spectrometry, but also electrochemical, and spectrophotometric detection for screening purpose), and on attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR) for solid-state analysis. Each method has been designed to obtain highly selective, sensitive yet sustainable systems and has been validated according to international guidelines. All the methods developed herein proved to be suitable for the analysis of the compounds under investigation and may be useful tools in medicinal chemistry, pharmaceutical analysis, within clinical studies and forensic investigations.