Real options and game theoretical approaches to real estate development projects: multiple equilibria and the implications of different tie-breaking rules

This paper contributes to a fast growing literature which introduces game theory in the analysis of real option investments in a competitive setting. Specifically, in this paper we focus on the issue of multiple equilibria and on the implications that different equilibrium selections may have for the pricing of real options and for subsequent strategic decisions. We present some theoretical results of the necessary conditions to have multiple equilibria and we show under which conditions different tie-breaking rules result in different economic decisions. We then present a numerical exercise using the in formation set obtained on a real estate development in South London. We find that risk aversion reduces option value and this reduction decreases marginally as negative externalities decrease.

Instructions for an Audio Performance/Scissors Music

‘Instructions for an Audio Performance/Scissors Recording’ is a score for a performance using an amplified scissors that can be downloaded and interpreted by a performer anywhere in the world. The file functions as a manual for the performer with guidance for creating the instrument and preparing the performance space while it also provides a template for the actual sonic pattern to be followed in the live performance. Created originally for ‘Storageroom’ an online platform featuring complete exhibitions that are available for download, the piece was exhibited and interpreted in a live performance by Ayelet Lerman for the File Transfer Protocol, the contemporary section of the Haifa-Jerusalem-Tel Aviv exhibition at the Museum of Art, Haifa, Israel.

Formal theory building for the avalanche game: explaining counter-intuitive behaviour of a complex system using geometrical and human behavioural/physiological effects

In 'Avalanche', an object is lowered, players staying in contact throughout. Normally the task is easily accomplished. However, with larger groups counter-intuitive behaviours appear. The paper proposes a formal theory for the underlying causal mechanisms. The aim is to not only provide an explicit, testable hypothesis for the source of the observed modes of behaviour-but also to exemplify the contribution that formal theory building can make to understanding complex social phenomena. Mapping reveals the importance of geometry to the Avalanche game; each player has a pair of balancing loops, one involved in lowering the object, the other ensuring contact. For more players, sets of balancing loops interact and these can allow dominance by reinforcing loops, causing the system to chase upwards towards an ever-increasing goal. However, a series of other effects concerning human physiology and behaviour (HPB) is posited as playing a role. The hypothesis is therefore rigorously tested using simulation. For simplicity a 'One Degree of Freedom' case is examined, allowing all of the effects to be included whilst rendering the analysis more transparent. Formulation and experimentation with the model gives insight into the behaviours. Multi-dimensional rate/level analysis indicates that there is only a narrow region in which the system is able to move downwards. Model runs reproduce the single 'desired' mode of behaviour and all three of the observed 'problematic' ones. Sensitivity analysis gives further insight into the system's modes and their causes. Behaviour is seen to arise only when the geometric effects apply (number of players greater than degrees of freedom of object) in combination with a range of HPB effects. An analogy exists between the co-operative behaviour required here and various examples: conflicting strategic objectives in organizations; Prisoners' Dilemma and integrated bargaining situations. Additionally, the game may be relatable in more direct algebraic terms to situations involving companies in which the resulting behaviours are mediated by market regulations. Finally, comment is offered on the inadequacy of some forms of theory building and the case is made for formal theory building involving the use of models, analysis and plausible explanations to create deep understanding of social phenomena.

Good machine performance in Turing’s imitation game

In this paper we consider transcripts which originated from a practical series of Turing’s Imitation Game which was held on 23rd June 2012 at Bletchley Park, England. In some cases the tests involved a 3-participant simultaneous comparison of two hidden entities whereas others were the result of a direct 2-participant interaction. Each of the transcripts considered here resulted in a human interrogator being fooled, by a machine, into concluding that they had been conversing with a human. Particular features of the conversation are highlighted, successful ploys on the part of each machine discussed and likely reasons for the interrogator being fooled are considered. Subsequent feedback from the interrogators involved is also included

Game-theoretic aspects of international mergers: Theory and case studies

This paper studies the exclusion of potential competition as a motivating factor for international mergers. We propose a simple game-theoretic framework in order to discuss the conditions under which mergers that prevent reciprocal domestic competition will occur. Our analysis highlights the shortcomings of antitrust policies based on pre-merger/post-merger concentration comparisons. A review of several recent European cases suggests that actual merger policy often fails to consider potential competition.

An experiment on subjective game valuations

We report experimental results on a prisoners' dilemma implemented in a way which allows us to elicit incentive−compatible valuations of the game. We test the hypothesis that players' valuations coincide with their Nash equilibrium earnings. Our results offer significantly less support for this hypothesis than for the prediction of Dominant Strategy (DS) play.

The Kasparov-World Game

Kasparov-World, initiated by Microsoft and also sponsored by First USA, was a novel correspondence game played on the World Wide Web at one ply per day. This was the first time that any group had attempted to form on the Web and then solve shared problems against fixed, short-term deadlines. The first author first became involved in his role as a Web consultant, observing the dynamics and effectiveness of the group. These are fully described, together with observations on the technological contribution and the second author's post-hoc computation of some relevant Endgame Tables.

Televised Whorf: cognitive restructuring in advanced foreign language learners as a function of audio-visual media exposure

The encoding of goal-oriented motion events varies across different languages. Speakers of languages without grammatical aspect (e.g., Swedish) tend to mention motion endpoints when describing events, e.g., “two nuns walk to a house,”, and attach importance to event endpoints when matching scenes from memory. Speakers of aspect languages (e.g., English), on the other hand, are more prone to direct attention to the ongoingness of motion events, which is reflected both in their event descriptions, e.g., “two nuns are walking.”, and in their non-verbal similarity judgements. This study examines to what extent native speakers of Swedish (n = 82) with English as a foreign language (FL) restructure their categorisation of goal-oriented motion as a function of their English proficiency and experience with the English language (e.g., exposure, learning). Seventeen monolingual native English speakers from the United Kingdom (UK) were engaged for comparison purposes. Data on motion event cognition were collected through a memory-based triads matching task, in which a target scene with an intermediate degree of endpoint orientation was matched with two alternative scenes with low and high degrees of endpoint orientation, respectively. Results showed that the preference among the Swedish speakers of L2 English to base their similarity judgements on ongoingness rather than event endpoints was correlated with their use of English in their everyday lives, such that those who often watched television in English approximated the ongoingness preference of the English native speakers. These findings suggest that event cognition patterns may be restructured through the exposure to FL audio-visual media. The results thus add to the emerging picture that learning a new language entails learning new ways of observing and reasoning about reality.

N1 enhancement in synesthesia during visual and audio-visual perception in semantic cross-modal conflict situations: an ERP study

Synesthesia entails a special kind of sensory perception, where stimulation in one sensory modality leads to an internally generated perceptual experience of another, not stimulated sensory modality. This phenomenon can be viewed as an abnormal multisensory integration process as here the synesthetic percept is aberrantly fused with the stimulated modality. Indeed, recent synesthesia research has focused on multimodal processing even outside of the specific synesthesia-inducing context and has revealed changed multimodal integration, thus suggesting perceptual alterations at a global level. Here, we focused on audio-visual processing in synesthesia using a semantic classification task in combination with visually or auditory-visually presented animated and in animated objects in an audio-visual congruent and incongruent manner. Fourteen subjects with auditory-visual and/or grapheme-color synesthesia and 14 control subjects participated in the experiment. During presentation of the stimuli, event-related potentials were recorded from 32 electrodes. The analysis of reaction times and error rates revealed no group differences with best performance for audio-visually congruent stimulation indicating the well-known multimodal facilitation effect. We found enhanced amplitude of the N1 component over occipital electrode sites for synesthetes compared to controls. The differences occurred irrespective of the experimental condition and therefore suggest a global influence on early sensory processing in synesthetes.

Impact of game bird release on the Adonis blue butterfly Polyommatus bellargus (Lepidoptera Lycaenidae) on chalk grassland

Polyommatus bellargus is a priority species of butterfly in the UK as a result of its scarcity and the rate of population decline over the last few years. In the UK, the species is associated with chalk grassland on hot, south-facing slopes suitable for the growth of the food plant Hippocrepis comosa. Shooting game birds is a popular pastime in the UK. Over 40 million game birds, principally Phasianus colchicus and Alectoris rufa, are bred and released into the countryside each year for shooting interests. There is a concern that the release of such a large number of non-native birds has an adverse effect on native wildlife. A study was carried out over a period of 3 years out to examine whether there was any evidence that A. rufa released into chalk grassland habitat negatively affects populations of P. bellargus. A comparison was made between sites where large numbers of A. rufa were released versus sites where no, or few, birds were released. The study involved the construction of exclosures in these sites to allow an examination of the number of butterflies emerging from H. comosa when the birds were excluded versus when the birds had free range across the area. Where birds were present the on-site vegetation was shorter than where they were absent indicating that the birds were definitely influencing habitat structure. However, the evidence that A. rufa was negatively influencing the number of adult butterflies emerging was not strong, although there was a largely non-significant tendency for higher butterfly emergence when the birds were excluded or absent.

Imbalanced functional link between executive control network and reward network explain the online-game seeking behaviors in Internet gaming disorder

Literatures have shown that Internet gaming disorder (IGD) subjects show impaired executive control and enhanced reward sensitivities than healthy controls. However, how these two networks jointly affect the valuation process and drive IGD subjects' online-game-seeking behaviors remains unknown. Thirty-five IGD and 36 healthy controls underwent a resting-states scan in the MRI scanner. Functional connectivity (FC) was examined within control and reward network seeds regions, respectively. Nucleus accumbens (NAcc) was selected as the node to find the interactions between these two networks. IGD subjects show decreased FC in the executive control network and increased FC in the reward network when comparing with the healthy controls. When examining the correlations between the NAcc and the executive control/reward networks, the link between the NAcc - executive control network is negatively related with the link between NAcc - reward network. The changes (decrease/increase) in IGD subjects' brain synchrony in control/reward networks suggest the inefficient/overly processing within neural circuitry underlying these processes. The inverse proportion between control network and reward network in IGD suggest that impairments in executive control lead to inefficient inhibition of enhanced cravings to excessive online game playing. This might shed light on the mechanistic understanding of IGD.