Estimating Design-Flood Discharges for Streams in Iowa Using Drainage-Basin and Channel-Geometry Characteristics, HR-322, 1993

Drainage-basin and channel-geometry multiple-regression equations are presented for estimating design-flood discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years at stream sites on rural, unregulated streams in Iowa. Design-flood discharge estimates determined by Pearson Type-III analyses using data collected through the 1990 water year are reported for the 188 streamflow-gaging stations used in either the drainage-basin or channel-geometry regression analyses. Ordinary least-squares multiple-regression techniques were used to identify selected drainage-basin and channel-geometry regions. Weighted least-squares multiple-regression techniques, which account for differences in the variance of flows at different gaging stations and for variable lengths in station records, were used to estimate the regression parameters. Statewide drainage-basin equations were developed from analyses of 164 streamflow-gaging stations. Drainage-basin characteristics were quantified using a geographic-information-system (GIS) procedure to process topographic maps and digital cartographic data. The significant characteristics identified for the drainage-basin equations included contributing drainage area, relative relief, drainage frequency, and 2-year, 24-hour precipitation intensity. The average standard errors of prediction for the drainage-basin equations ranged from 38.6% to 50.2%. The GIS procedure expanded the capability to quantitatively relate drainage-basin characteristics to the magnitude and frequency of floods for stream sites in Iowa and provides a flood-estimation method that is independent of hydrologic regionalization. Statewide and regional channel-geometry regression equations were developed from analyses of 157 streamflow-gaging stations. Channel-geometry characteristics were measured on site and on topographic maps. Statewide and regional channel-geometry regression equations that are dependent on whether a stream has been channelized were developed on the basis of bankfull and active-channel characteristics. The significant channel-geometry characteristics identified for the statewide and regional regression equations included bankfull width and bankfull depth for natural channels unaffected by channelization, and active-channel width for stabilized channels affected by channelization. The average standard errors of prediction ranged from 41.0% to 68.4% for the statewide channel-geometry equations and from 30.3% to 70.0% for the regional channel-geometry equations. Procedures provided for applying the drainage-basin and channel-geometry regression equations depend on whether the design-flood discharge estimate is for a site on an ungaged stream, an ungaged site on a gaged stream, or a gaged site. When both a drainage-basin and a channel-geometry regression-equation estimate are available for a stream site, a procedure is presented for determining a weighted average of the two flood estimates.

Design, conduct, and analyses of Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98: a randomized, double-blind, phase-III study comparing letrozole and tamoxifen as adjuvant endocrine therapy for postmenopausal women with receptor-positive, early breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Aromatase inhibitors provide superior disease control when compared with tamoxifen as adjuvant therapy for postmenopausal women with endocrine-responsive early breast cancer. PURPOSE: To present the design, history, and analytic challenges of the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 trial: an international, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, phase-III study comparing the aromatase inhibitor letrozole with tamoxifen in this clinical setting. METHODS: From 1998-2003, BIG 1-98 enrolled 8028 women to receive monotherapy with either tamoxifen or letrozole for 5 years, or sequential therapy of 2 years of one agent followed by 3 years of the other. Randomization to one of four treatment groups permitted two complementary analyses to be conducted several years apart. The first, reported in 2005, provided a head-to-head comparison of letrozole versus tamoxifen. Statistical power was increased by an enriched design, which included patients who were assigned sequential treatments until the time of the treatment switch. The second, reported in late 2008, used a conditional landmark approach to test the hypothesis that switching endocrine agents at approximately 2 years from randomization for patients who are disease-free is superior to continuing with the original agent. RESULTS: The 2005 analysis showed the superiority of letrozole compared with tamoxifen. The patients who were assigned tamoxifen alone were unblinded and offered the opportunity to switch to letrozole. Results from other trials increased the clinical relevance about whether or not to start treatment with letrozole or tamoxifen, and analysis plans were expanded to evaluate sequential versus single-agent strategies from randomization. LIMITATIONS: Due to the unblinding of patients assigned tamoxifen alone, analysis of updated data will require ascertainment of the influence of selective crossover from tamoxifen to letrozole. CONCLUSIONS: BIG 1-98 is an example of an enriched design, involving complementary analyses addressing different questions several years apart, and subject to evolving analytic plans influenced by new data that emerge over time.

Preliminary description and slope stability analyses of the 2008 Little Salmon lake and 2007 Mt. Steele landslides, Yukon

In August 2008, reactivation of the Little Salmon Lake landslide occurred. During this event, hundreds of conical mounds of variable size and composition formed in the deposition zone. The characteristics of these landforms are described and a potential mechanism for their formation is proposed. A preliminary slope stability analysis of the 2007 Mount Steele rock and ice avalanche was also undertaken. The orientation of very high persistence (>20 m long) structural planes (e.g., faults, joints and bedding) within bedrock in the source zone was obtained using an airborne-LiDAR digital elevation model and the software COLTOP-3D. Using these discontinuity orientation measurements, kinematic, surface wedge and simple three-dimensional distinct element slope stability analyses were performed.

Prevalence and Distribution of Young Driver Distraction Errors in Naturalistic Driving, TPF-5(207), 2014

Naturalistic driving studies are the latest resource for gathering data associated with driver behavior. The University of Iowa has been studying teen driving using naturalistic methods since 2006. By instrumenting teen drivers’ vehicles with event-triggered video recorders (ETVR), we are able to record a 12-second video clip every time a vehicle exceeds a pre-set g-force threshold. Each of these video clips contains valuable data regarding the frequency and types of distractions present in vehicles driven by today’s young drivers. The 16-year old drivers who participated in the study had a distraction present in nearly half of the events that were captured. While a lot of attention has been given to the distractions associated with technology in the vehicle (cell phones, navigation devices, entertainment systems, etc.), the most frequent type of distraction coded was the presence of teen passengers engaging in conversation (45%). Cognitive distractions, such as singing along with the radio, were the second most common distraction. Cell phone use was the third most common distraction, detected in only 10% of the events containing distraction.

Looking for Validity or Testing It? The Perils of Stepwise Regression, Extreme-Scores Analysis, Heteroscedasticity, and Measurement Error

When researchers introduce a new test they have to demonstrate that it is valid, using unbiased designs and suitable statistical procedures. In this article we use Monte Carlo analyses to highlight how incorrect statistical procedures (i.e., stepwise regression, extreme scores analyses) or ignoring regression assumptions (e.g., heteroscedasticity) contribute to wrong validity estimates. Beyond these demonstrations, and as an example, we re-examined the results reported by Warwick, Nettelbeck, and Ward (2010) concerning the validity of the Ability Emotional Intelligence Measure (AEIM). Warwick et al. used the wrong statistical procedures to conclude that the AEIM was incrementally valid beyond intelligence and personality traits in predicting various outcomes. In our re-analysis, we found that the reliability-corrected multiple correlation of their measures with personality and intelligence was up to .69. Using robust statistical procedures and appropriate controls, we also found that the AEIM did not predict incremental variance in GPA, stress, loneliness, or well-being, demonstrating the importance for testing validity instead of looking for it.

Comparing simulation methods for modelling the errors of stand inventory data

Abstract

Taxonomic status of Hylomys parvus and Hylomys suillus (Insectivora: Erinaceidae): biochemical and morphological analyses

The genus Hylomys was thought to be represented by a single widespread species. Biochemical and morphometric analyses of several Southeast Asian populations reveal that Sumatra is inhabited by two distinct species, the dwarf gymnure (H. parvus) and the lesser gymnure (H. suillus). The absence of interbreeding between these two groups along with their relatively ancient common origins are documented by several diagnostic loci and a large Nei's genetic distance (D = 0.353 +/- 0.035). The dwarf gymnure has been reported only from the slopes of the Mt. Kerinci volcano in Sumatra, where the species lives at higher elevations than its potential competitor, the lesser gymnure. Other populations of Hylomys from Java, Borneo, and Malaysia are more closely related to the Sumatran sample of H. suillus, but they exhibit strong interpopulational genetic differentiation (D = 0.165 +/- 0.040) that may be accounted for by their isolated montane habitat. In addition, a principal-components analysis based on 16 measurements of the skull clearly separates adult specimens of both species. There is little overlap in the measurements between H. suillus (which is larger) and H. parvus. On Sumatra where both species may be sympatric, the notched space between premaxillary tips, soft texture of the fur, and more delicate skull and dentition are diagnostic of H. parvus.

Genetical and environmental analyses of yield in six biparental soybean crosses

The yearly genetic progress obtained by breeding for increased soybean yield has been considered acceptable worldwide. It is common sense, however, that this progress can be improved further if refined breeding techniques, developed from the knowledge of the genetic mechanisms controlling soybean yield, are used. In this paper, data from four cultivars and/or lines and their derived sets of F2, F3, F7, F8, F9 and F10 generations assayed in 17 environments were analyzed to allow an insight of the genetic control of soybean yield under different environmental conditions. The general picture was of a complex polygene system controlling yield in soybeans. Additive genetic effects predominated although dominance was often found to be significant. Complications such as epistasis, linkage and macro and micro genotype x environment (G x E) interactions were also commonly detected. The overall heritability was 0.29. The relative magnitude of the additive effects and the complicating factors allowed the inference that the latter are not a serious problem to the breeder. The low heritability values and the considerable magnitude of G x E interactions for yield, however, indicated that careful evaluation through experiments designed to allow for the presence of these effects is necessary for successful selection.

Addendum to Perception and Interpretation of Advance Warning Signs on County Roads, HR-256, 1985

This contract extension was granted to analyze data obtained in the original contract period at a level of detail not called for in the original contract nor permitted by the time constraints of the original contract schedule. These further analyses focused on two primary questions: I. What sources of variation can be isolated within the overall pattern of driver recognition errors reported previously for the 16 signs tested in Project HR-256? 2. Were there systematic relations among data on the placement of signs in a simulated signing exercise and data on the respondents' ability to detect the presence of a sign in a visual field or their ability to recognize quickly and correctly a sign shown them or the speed with which these same persons can respond to a sign for a driver decision?

Topographic ERP analyses: a step-by-step tutorial review

In this tutorial review, we detail both the rationale for as well as the implementation of a set of analyses of surface-recorded event-related potentials (ERPs) that uses the reference-free spatial (i.e. topographic) information available from high-density electrode montages to render statistical information concerning modulations in response strength, latency, and topography both between and within experimental conditions. In these and other ways these topographic analysis methods allow the experimenter to glean additional information and neurophysiologic interpretability beyond what is available from canonical waveform analyses. In this tutorial we present the example of somatosensory evoked potentials (SEPs) in response to stimulation of each hand to illustrate these points. For each step of these analyses, we provide the reader with both a conceptual and mathematical description of how the analysis is carried out, what it yields, and how to interpret its statistical outcome. We show that these topographic analysis methods are intuitive and easy-to-use approaches that can remove much of the guesswork often confronting ERP researchers and also assist in identifying the information contained within high-density ERP datasets

The relationship between cognitive errors and interpersonal patterns in depressed women.

Individuals with depression process information in an overly negative or biased way (e.g., Henriques & Leitenberg, 2002) and demonstrate significant interpersonal dysfunction (e.g., Zlotnick, Kohn, Keitner, & Della Grotta, 2000). This study examined the relationship between cognitive errors (CEs) and interpersonal interactions in early psychotherapy sessions of 25 female patients with major depression. Transcripts were rated for CEs using the Cognitive Error Rating Scale (Drapeau, Perry, & Dunkley, 2008). Interpersonal patterns were assessed using the Structural Analysis of Social Behavior (Benjamin, 1974). Significant associations were found between CEs and markers of interpersonal functioning in selected contexts. The implications of these findings in bridging the gap between research and practice, enhancing treatment outcome, and improving therapist training are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

Cost-plus-loss analyses of forest inventory strategies based on kNN-assigned reference sample plot data

Abstract

Letter to the Editor : on the value of probability for evaluating results of comparative pattern analyses

This letter to the Editor comments on the article Practical relevance of pattern uniqueness in forensic science by P.T. Jayaprakash (Forensic Science International, in press).

Characterization of mandarin citrus germplasm from Southern Brazil by morphological and molecular analyses

The objective of this work was to characterize mandarin (Citrus spp.) germplasm from Southern Brazil by morphological and molecular analyses. Thirty seven cultivars from 34 distinct mandarin varieties were evaluated by morphological and agronomic traits of leaves, flowers and fruits, and by microsatellite markers. The morphological and agronomic characteristics suggested that almost all varieties can be produced for commercial use, and some, as the Satsuma variety, are recommended for breeding programs. Pooled DNA samples from 1-5 plants belonging to each cultivar were tested. Eight of the nine primers detected polymorphisms. Specific markers were found for some accessions. The dendrogram constructed with the morphological results divided the 37 cultivars into four groups, while that obtained with the microsatellites clustered 35 of the 37 cultivars into three groups only. Generally, intervarietal differences are not high, and this lack of agreement in the two multifactorial analyses indicates that diverse evolutionary factors are acting at these two levels of investigation.