A Multi-Agent Simulation of Retail Management Practices

We apply Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) to investigate a set of problems in a retail context. Specifically, we are working to understand the relationship between human resource management practices and retail productivity. Despite the fact we are working within a relatively novel and complex domain, it is clear that intelligent agents do offer potential for developing organizational capabilities in the future. Our multi-disciplinary research team has worked with a UK department store to collect data and capture perceptions about operations from actors within departments. Based on this case study work, we have built a simulator that we present in this paper. We then use the simulator to gather empirical evidence regarding two specific management practices: empowerment and employee development.

Predictive Models for Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus Spread Dynamics, Considering Frankliniella occidentalis Specific Life Processes as Influenced by the Virus

Several models have been studied on predictive epidemics of arthropod vectored plant viruses in an attempt to bring understanding to the complex but specific relationship between the three cornered pathosystem (virus, vector and host plant), as well as their interactions with the environment. A large body of studies mainly focuses on weather based models as management tool for monitoring pests and diseases, with very few incorporating the contribution of vector's life processes in the disease dynamics, which is an essential aspect when mitigating virus incidences in a crop stand. In this study, we hypothesized that the multiplication and spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in a crop stand is strongly related to its influences on Frankliniella occidentalis preferential behavior and life expectancy. Model dynamics of important aspects in disease development within TSWV-F. occidentalis-host plant interactions were developed, focusing on F. occidentalis' life processes as influenced by TSWV. The results show that the influence of TSWV on F. occidentalis preferential behaviour leads to an estimated increase in relative acquisition rate of the virus, and up to 33% increase in transmission rate to healthy plants. Also, increased life expectancy; which relates to improved fitness, is dependent on the virus induced preferential behaviour, consequently promoting multiplication and spread of the virus in a crop stand. The development of vector-based models could further help in elucidating the role of tri-trophic interactions in agricultural disease systems. Use of the model to examine the components of the disease process could also boost our understanding on how specific epidemiological characteristics interact to cause diseases in crops. With this level of understanding we can efficiently develop more precise control strategies for the virus and the vector.

Optimizing last mile delivery using public transport with multiagent based control

The majority of research work carried out in the field of Operations-Research uses methods and algorithms to optimize the pick-up and delivery problem. Most studies aim to solve the vehicle routing problem, to accommodate optimum delivery orders, vehicles etc. This paper focuses on green logistics approach, where existing Public Transport infrastructure capability of a city is used for the delivery of small and medium sized packaged goods thus, helping improve the situation of urban congestion and greenhouse gas emissions reduction. It carried out a study to investigate the feasibility of the proposed multi-agent based simulation model, for efficiency of cost, time and energy consumption. Multimodal Dijkstra Shortest Path algorithm and Nested Monte Carlo Search have been employed for a two-phase algorithmic approach used for generation of time based cost matrix. The quality of the tour is dependent on the efficiency of the search algorithm implemented for plan generation and route planning. The results reveal a definite advantage of using Public Transportation over existing delivery approaches in terms of energy efficiency.

Modelling reactive and proactive behaviour in simulation

This research investigated the simulation model behaviour of a traditional and combined discrete event as well as agent based simulation models when modelling human reactive and proactive behaviour in human centric complex systems. A departmental store was chosen as human centric complex case study where the operation system of a fitting room in WomensWear department was investigated. We have looked at ways to determine the efficiency of new management policies for the fitting room operation through simulating the reactive and proactive behaviour of staff towards customers. Once development of the simulation models and their verification had been done, we carried out a validation experiment in the form of a sensitivity analysis. Subsequently, we executed a statistical analysis where the mixed reactive and proactive behaviour experimental results were compared with some reactive experimental results from previously published works. Generally, this case study discovered that simple proactive individual behaviour could be modelled in both simulation models. In addition, we found the traditional discrete event model performed similar in the simulation model output compared to the combined discrete event and agent based simulation when modelling similar human behaviour.

Simulating customer experience and word-of-mouth in retail: a case study

Agents offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. In this paper we describe the development of agent-based simulation models, designed to help to understand the relationship between people management practices and retail performance. We report on the current development of our simulation models which includes new features concerning the evolution of customers over time. To test the features we have conducted a series of experiments dealing with customer pool sizes, standard and noise reduction modes, and the spread of customers’ word of mouth. To validate and evaluate our model, we introduce new performance measure specific to retail operations. We show that by varying different parameters in our model we can simulate a range of customer experiences leading to significant differences in performance measures. Ultimately, we are interested in better understanding the impact of changes in staff behavior due to changes in store management practices. Our multi-disciplinary research team draws upon expertise from work psychologists and computer scientists. Despite the fact we are working within a relatively novel and complex domain, it is clear that intelligent agents offer potential for fostering sustainable organizational capabilities in the future.

TRAFFIC IMPACT ANALYSIS OF SEVERAL DYNAMIC LANE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR CONGESTION MITIGATION BASED ON DTA MODEL

Persistent daily congestion has been increasing in recent years, particularly along major corridors during selected periods in the mornings and evenings. On certain segments, these roadways are often at or near capacity. However, a conventional Predefined control strategy did not fit the demands that changed over time, making it necessary to implement the various dynamical lane management strategies discussed in this thesis. Those strategies include hard shoulder running, reversible HOV lanes, dynamic tolls and variable speed limit. A mesoscopic agent-based DTA model is used to simulate different strategies and scenarios. From the analyses, all strategies aim to mitigate congestion in terms of the average speed and average density. The largest improvement can be found in hard shoulder running and reversible HOV lanes while the other two provide more stable traffic. In terms of average speed and travel time, hard shoulder running is the most congested strategy for I-270 to help relieve the traffic pressure.

NEAR INFRARED SPECTROSCOPY FOR ESTIMATING SUGARCANE BAGASSE CONTENT IN MEDIUM DENSITY FIBERBOARD

Medium density fiberboard (MDF) is an engineered wood product formed by breaking down selected lignin-cellulosic material residuals into fibers, combining it with wax and a resin binder, and then forming panels by applying high temperature and pressure. Because the raw material in the industrial process is ever-changing, the panel industry requires methods for monitoring the composition of their products. The aim of this study was to estimate the ratio of sugarcane (SC) bagasse to Eucalyptus wood in MDF panels using near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least square (PLS) regressions were performed. MDF panels having different bagasse contents were easily distinguished from each other by the PCA of their NIR spectra with clearly different patterns of response. The PLS-R models for SC content of these MDF samples presented a strong coefficient of determination (0.96) between the NIR-predicted and Lab-determined values and a low standard error of prediction (similar to 1.5%) in the cross-validations. A key role of resins (adhesives), cellulose, and lignin for such PLS-R calibrations was shown. PLS-DA model correctly classified ninety-four percent of MDF samples by cross-validations and ninety-eight percent of the panels by independent test set. These NIR-based models can be useful to quickly estimate sugarcane bagasse vs. Eucalyptus wood content ratio in unknown MDF samples and to verify the quality of these engineered wood products in an online process.

Shallow landslide prediction in the Serra do Mar, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Various methods are currently used in order to predict shallow landslides within the catchment scale. Among them, physically based models present advantages associated with the physical description of processes by means of mathematical equations. The main objective of this research is the prediction of shallow landslides using TRIGRS model, in a pilot catchment located at Serra do Mar mountain range, Sao Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. Susceptibility scenarios have been simulated taking into account different mechanical and hydrological values. These scenarios were analysed based on a landslide scars map from the January 1985 event, upon which two indexes were applied: Scars Concentration (SC - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells with scars within the catchment) and Landslide Potential (LP - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells in that same class). The results showed a significant agreement between the simulated scenarios and the scar's map. In unstable areas (SF <= 1), the SC values exceeded 50% in all scenarios. Based on the results, the use of this model should be considered an important tool for shallow landslide prediction, especially in areas where mechanical and hydrological properties of the materials are not well known.

Time correlation function in systems with two coexisting biological species

We study a stochastic lattice model describing the dynamics of coexistence of two interacting biological species. The model comprehends the local processes of birth, death, and diffusion of individuals of each species and is grounded on interaction of the predator-prey type. The species coexistence can be of two types: With self-sustained coupled time oscillations of population densities and without oscillations. We perform numerical simulations of the model on a square lattice and analyze the temporal behavior of each species by computing the time correlation functions as well as the spectral densities. This analysis provides an appropriate characterization of the different types of coexistence. It is also used to examine linked population cycles in nature and in experiment.

Simulation of Soil Carbon Dynamics under Sugarcane with the CENTURY Model

Currently there is a trend for the expansion of the area cropped with sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.), driven by an increase in the world demand for biofuels, due to economical, environmental, and geopolitical issues. Although sugarcane is traditionally harvested by burning dried leaves and tops, the unburned, mechanized harvest has been progressively adopted. The use of process based models is useful in understanding the effects of plant litter in soil C dynamics. The objective of this work was to use the CENTURY model in evaluating the effect of sugarcane residue management in the temporal dynamics of soil C. The approach taken in this work was to parameterize the CENTURY model for the sugarcane crop, to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C, validating the model through field experiment data, and finally to make predictions in the long term regarding soil C. The main focus of this work was the comparison of soil C stocks between the burned and unburned litter management systems, but the effect of mineral fertilizer and organic residue applications were also evaluated. The simulations were performed with data from experiments with different durations, from 1 to 60 yr, in Goiana and Timbauba, Pernambuco, and Pradopolis, Sao Paulo, all in Brazil; and Mount Edgecombe, Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa. It was possible to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C (R(2) = 0.89). The predictions made with the model revealed that there is, in the long term, a trend for higher soil C stocks with the unburned management. This increase is conditioned by factors such as climate, soil texture, time of adoption of the unburned system, and N fertilizer management.

A Markovian model market-Akerlof`s lemons and the asymmetry of information

In this work we study an agent based model to investigate the role of asymmetric information degrees for market evolution. This model is quite simple and may be treated analytically since the consumers evaluate the quality of a certain good taking into account only the quality of the last good purchased plus her perceptive capacity beta. As a consequence, the system evolves according to a stationary Markov chain. The value of a good offered by the firms increases along with quality according to an exponent alpha, which is a measure of the technology. It incorporates all the technological capacity of the production systems such as education, scientific development and techniques that change the productivity rates. The technological level plays an important role to explain how the asymmetry of information may affect the market evolution in this model. We observe that, for high technological levels, the market can detect adverse selection. The model allows us to compute the maximum asymmetric information degree before the market collapses. Below this critical point the market evolves during a limited period of time and then dies out completely. When beta is closer to 1 (symmetric information), the market becomes more profitable for high quality goods, although high and low quality markets coexist. The maximum asymmetric information level is a consequence of an ergodicity breakdown in the process of quality evaluation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of Ramulosis Disease of Cotton Under Controlled Environment and Field Conditions

Colletotrichum gossypii var. cephalosporioides, the fungus that causes ramulosis disease of cotton, is widespread in Brazil and can cause severe yield loss. Because weather conditions greatly affect disease development, the objective of this work was to develop weather-based models to assess disease favorability. Latent period, incidence, and severity of ramulosis symptoms were evaluated in controlled environment experiments using factorial combinations of temperature (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 degrees C) and leaf wetness duration (0, 4, 8, 16, 32, and 64 h after inoculation). Severity was modeled as an exponential function of leaf wetness duration and temperature. At the optimum temperature of disease development, 27 degrees C, average latent period was 10 days. Maximum ramulosis severity occurred from 20 to 30 degrees C, with sharp decreases at lower and higher temperatures. Ramulosis severity increased as wetness periods were increased from 4 to 32 h. In field experiments at Piracicaba, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, cotton plots were inoculated (10(5) conidia ml(-1)) and ramulosis severity was evaluated weekly. The model obtained from the controlled environment study was used to generate a disease favorability index for comparison with disease progress rate in the field. Hourly measurements of solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, leaf wetness duration, rainfall, and wind speed were also evaluated as possible explanatory variables. Both the disease favorability model and a model based on rainfall explained ramulosis growth rate well, with R(2) of 0.89 and 0.91, respectively. They are proposed as models of ramulosis development rate on cotton in Brazil, and weather-disease relationships revealed by this work can form the basis of a warning system for ramulosis development.

Within-stand and seasonal variations of specific leaf area in a clonal Eucalyptus plantation in the Republic of Congo

Specific leaf area (SLA; m(leaf)(2) kg(leaf)(-1)) is a key ecophysiological parameter influencing leaf physiology, photosynthesis, and whole plant carbon gain. Both individual tree-based models and other forest process-based models are generally highly sensitive to this parameter, but information on its temporal or within-stand variability is still scarce. In a 2-4-year-old Eucalyptus plantation in Congo, prone to seasonal drought, the within-stand and seasonal variability in SLA were investigated by means of destructive sampling carried out at 2-month intervals, over a 2-year period. Within-crown vertical gradients of SLA were small. Highly significant relationships were found between tree-average SLA (SLA(t)) and tree size (tree height, H(t), or diameter at breast height, DBH): SLA(t) ranged from about 9 m(2) kg(-1) for dominant trees to about 14-15 m(2) kg(-1) for the smallest trees. The decrease in SLA(t) with increasing tree size was accurately predicted from DBH using power functions. Stand-average SLA varied by about 20% during the year, with lowest values at the end of the 5-month dry season, and highest values about 2-3 months after the onset of the wet season. Variability in leaf water status according to tree size and season is discussed as a possible determinant of both the within-stand and seasonal variations in SM. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pollen abortion rates, nitrogen dioxide by passive diffusive tubes and bioaccumulation in tree barks are effective in the characterization of air pollution

This study aims to evaluate the feasibility of using simple techniques - pollen abortion rates, passive diffusive tubes (NO(2)) and trace element accumulation in tree barks - when determining the area of influence of pollution emissions produced in a traffic corridor. Measurements were performed at 0, 60 and 120 meters from a major road with high vehicular traffic, taking advantage of a sharp gradient that exists between the road and a cemetery. NO(2) values and trace elements measured at 0 meters were significantly higher than those measured at more distant points. Al, S. Cl, V. Fe, Cu, and Zn exhibited a higher concentration in tree barks at the vicinity of the traffic corridor. The same pattern was observed for the pollen abortion rates measured at the three different sites. Our data suggests that simple techniques may be applied either to validate dispersion land-based models in an urban settings or, alternatively, to provide better spatial resolution to air pollution exposure when high-resolution pollution monitoring data are not available. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modification-related porosity formation in hypoeutectic aluminum-silicon alloys

A series of aluminum-10 wt pet silicon castings were produced in sand molds to investigate the effect of modification on porosity formation. Modification with individual additions of either strontium or sodium resulted in a statistically significant increase in the level of porosity compared to unmodified castings. The increase in porosity with modification is due to the presence of numerous dispersed pores, which were absent in the unmodified casting. It is proposed that these pores form as a result of differences in size of the aluminum-silicon eutectic grains between unmodified and modified alloys. A geometric model is developed to show how the size of eutectic grains can influence the amount and distribution of porosity. Unlike traditional feeding-based models, which incorporate the effect: of microstructure on permeability, this model considers what happens when liquid is isolated from the riser and can no longer flow. This simple isolation model complements rather than contradicts existing theories on modification-related porosity formation and should be considered in the development of future comprehensive models.