Real Estate Investment and Uncertainty: Econometric Modelling using Finnish Data

The purpose of this paper is to test for the effect of uncertainty in a model of real estate investment in Finland during the hihhly cyclical period of 1975 to 1998. We use two alternative measures of uncertainty. The first measure is the volatility of stock market returns and the second measure is the heterogeneity in the answers of the quarterly business survey of the Confederation of Finnish Industry and Employers. The econometric analysis is based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model and the paper applies a 'general-to-specific' modelling approach. We find that the measure of heterogeneity is significant in the model, but the volatility of stock market returns is not. The empirical results give some evidence of an uncertainty-induced threshold slowing down real estate investment in Finland.

Guessing under source uncertainty with side information

We study the problem of guessing the realization of a finite alphabet source, when some side information is provided, in a setting where the only knowledge the guesser has about the source and the correlated side information is that the joint source is one among a family. We define a notion of redundancy, identify a quantity that measures this redundancy, and study its properties. We then identify good guessing strategies that minimize the supremum redundancy (over the family). The minimum value measures the richness of the uncertainty class.

Scheduling parallel batch processors with incompatible job families using ant colony optimization

The present work concerns with the static scheduling of jobs to parallel identical batch processors with incompatible job families for minimizing the total weighted tardiness. This scheduling problem is applicable in burn-in operations and wafer fabrication in semiconductor manufacturing. We decompose the problem into two stages: batch formation and batch scheduling, as in the literature. The Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) based algorithm called ATC-BACO algorithm is developed in which ACO is used to solve the batch scheduling problems. Our computational experimentation shows that the proposed ATC-BACO algorithm performs better than the available best traditional dispatching rule called ATC-BATC rule.

Protein sequence design on the basis of topology optimization techniques -Using continuous modeling of discrete amino acid types

The notion of optimization is inherent in protein design. A long linear chain of twenty types of amino acid residues are known to fold to a 3-D conformation that minimizes the combined inter-residue energy interactions. There are two distinct protein design problems, viz. predicting the folded structure from a given sequence of amino acid monomers (folding problem) and determining a sequence for a given folded structure (inverse folding problem). These two problems have much similarity to engineering structural analysis and structural optimization problems respectively. In the folding problem, a protein chain with a given sequence folds to a conformation, called a native state, which has a unique global minimum energy value when compared to all other unfolded conformations. This involves a search in the conformation space. This is somewhat akin to the principle of minimum potential energy that determines the deformed static equilibrium configuration of an elastic structure of given topology, shape, and size that is subjected to certain boundary conditions. In the inverse-folding problem, one has to design a sequence with some objectives (having a specific feature of the folded structure, docking with another protein, etc.) and constraints (sequence being fixed in some portion, a particular composition of amino acid types, etc.) while obtaining a sequence that would fold to the desired conformation satisfying the criteria of folding. This requires a search in the sequence space. This is similar to structural optimization in the design-variable space wherein a certain feature of structural response is optimized subject to some constraints while satisfying the governing static or dynamic equilibrium equations. Based on this similarity, in this work we apply the topology optimization methods to protein design, discuss modeling issues and present some initial results.

Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Distributed nonlinear optimization algorithms for general network problems

There are a number of large networks which occur in many problems dealing with the flow of power, communication signals, water, gas, transportable goods, etc. Both design and planning of these networks involve optimization problems. The first part of this paper introduces the common characteristics of a nonlinear network (the network may be linear, the objective function may be non linear, or both may be nonlinear). The second part develops a mathematical model trying to put together some important constraints based on the abstraction for a general network. The third part deals with solution procedures; it converts the network to a matrix based system of equations, gives the characteristics of the matrix and suggests two solution procedures, one of them being a new one. The fourth part handles spatially distributed networks and evolves a number of decomposition techniques so that we can solve the problem with the help of a distributed computer system. Algorithms for parallel processors and spatially distributed systems have been described.There are a number of common features that pertain to networks. A network consists of a set of nodes and arcs. In addition at every node, there is a possibility of an input (like power, water, message, goods etc) or an output or none. Normally, the network equations describe the flows amoungst nodes through the arcs. These network equations couple variables associated with nodes. Invariably, variables pertaining to arcs are constants; the result required will be flows through the arcs. To solve the normal base problem, we are given input flows at nodes, output flows at nodes and certain physical constraints on other variables at nodes and we should find out the flows through the network (variables at nodes will be referred to as across variables).The optimization problem involves in selecting inputs at nodes so as to optimise an objective function; the objective may be a cost function based on the inputs to be minimised or a loss function or an efficiency function. The above mathematical model can be solved using Lagrange Multiplier technique since the equalities are strong compared to inequalities. The Lagrange multiplier technique divides the solution procedure into two stages per iteration. Stage one calculates the problem variables % and stage two the multipliers lambda. It is shown that the Jacobian matrix used in stage one (for solving a nonlinear system of necessary conditions) occurs in the stage two also.A second solution procedure has also been imbedded into the first one. This is called total residue approach. It changes the equality constraints so that we can get faster convergence of the iterations.Both solution procedures are found to coverge in 3 to 7 iterations for a sample network.The availability of distributed computer systems — both LAN and WAN — suggest the need for algorithms to solve the optimization problems. Two types of algorithms have been proposed — one based on the physics of the network and the other on the property of the Jacobian matrix. Three algorithms have been deviced, one of them for the local area case. These algorithms are called as regional distributed algorithm, hierarchical regional distributed algorithm (both using the physics properties of the network), and locally distributed algorithm (a multiprocessor based approach with a local area network configuration). The approach used was to define an algorithm that is faster and uses minimum communications. These algorithms are found to converge at the same rate as the non distributed (unitary) case.

Does Uncertainty Affect Investment and Labor Demand?

This paper analyzes the effect of uncertainty on investment and labor demand for Finnish firms during the time period 1987 – 2000. Utilizing a stock return based measure of uncertainty decomposed into systematic and idiosyncratic components, the results reveal that idiosyncratic uncertainty significantly reduces both investment and labor demand. Idiosyncratic uncertainty seems to influence investment in the current period, whereas the depressing effect on labor demand appears with a one-year lag. The results provide support that the depressing effect of idiosyncratic uncertainty on investment is stronger for small firms in comparison to large firms. Some evidence is reported regarding differential effects of uncertainty on labor demand conditional on firm characteristics. Most importantly, the depressing effect of lagged idiosyncratic uncertainty on labor demand tends to be stronger for diversified firms compared with focused firms.

Optimization of sample preparation for next-generation sequencing with Illumina Genome Analyzer II

The growing interest for sequencing with higher throughput in the last decade has led to the development of new sequencing applications. This thesis concentrates on optimizing DNA library preparation for Illumina Genome Analyzer II sequencer. The library preparation steps that were optimized include fragmentation, PCR purification and quantification. DNA fragmentation was performed with focused sonication in different concentrations and durations. Two column based PCR purification method, gel matrix method and magnetic bead based method were compared. Quantitative PCR and gel electrophoresis in a chip were compared for DNA quantification. The magnetic bead purification was found to be the most efficient and flexible purification method. The fragmentation protocol was changed to produce longer fragments to be compatible with longer sequencing reads. Quantitative PCR correlates better with the cluster number and should thus be considered to be the default quantification method for sequencing. As a result of this study more data have been acquired from sequencing with lower costs and troubleshooting has become easier as qualification steps have been added to the protocol. New sequencing instruments and applications will create a demand for further optimizations in future.

Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) for multi-objective design optimization of composite structures

In this paper, we present a generic method/model for multi-objective design optimization of laminated composite components, based on Vector Evaluated Artificial Bee Colony (VEABC) algorithm. VEABC is a parallel vector evaluated type, swarm intelligence multi-objective variant of the Artificial Bee Colony algorithm (ABC). In the current work a modified version of VEABC algorithm for discrete variables has been developed and implemented successfully for the multi-objective design optimization of composites. The problem is formulated with multiple objectives of minimizing weight and the total cost of the composite component to achieve a specified strength. The primary optimization variables are the number of layers, its stacking sequence (the orientation of the layers) and thickness of each layer. The classical lamination theory is utilized to determine the stresses in the component and the design is evaluated based on three failure criteria: failure mechanism based failure criteria, maximum stress failure criteria and the tsai-wu failure criteria. The optimization method is validated for a number of different loading configurations-uniaxial, biaxial and bending loads. The design optimization has been carried for both variable stacking sequences, as well fixed standard stacking schemes and a comparative study of the different design configurations evolved has been presented. Finally the performance is evaluated in comparison with other nature inspired techniques which includes Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Artificial Immune System (AIS) and Genetic Algorithm (GA). The performance of ABC is at par with that of PSO, AIS and GA for all the loading configurations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inventory Routing - A Strategic Management Accounting Perspective

This dissertation develops a strategic management accounting perspective of inventory routing. The thesis studies the drivers of cost efficiency gains by identifying the role of the underlying cost structure, demand, information sharing, forecasting accuracy, service levels, vehicle fleet, planning horizon and other strategic factors as well as the interaction effects among these factors with respect to performance outcomes. The task is to enhance the knowledge of the strategic situations that favor the implementation of inventory routing systems, understanding cause-and-effect relationships, linkages and gaining a holistic view of the value proposition of inventory routing. The thesis applies an exploratory case study design, which is based on normative quantitative empirical research using optimization, simulation and factor analysis. Data and results are drawn from a real world application to cash supply chains. The first research paper shows that performance gains require a common cost component and cannot be explained by simple linear or affine cost structures. Inventory management and distribution decisions become separable in the absence of a set-dependent cost structure, and neither economies of scope nor coordination problems are present in this case. The second research paper analyzes whether information sharing improves the overall forecasting accuracy. Analysis suggests that the potential for information sharing is limited to coordination of replenishments and that central information do not yield more accurate forecasts based on joint forecasting. The third research paper develops a novel formulation of the stochastic inventory routing model that accounts for minimal service levels and forecasting accuracy. The developed model allows studying the interaction of minimal service levels and forecasting accuracy with the underlying cost structure in inventory routing. Interestingly, results show that the factors minimal service level and forecasting accuracy are not statistically significant, and subsequently not relevant for the strategic decision problem to introduce inventory routing, or in other words, to effectively internalize inventory management and distribution decisions at the supplier. Consequently the main contribution of this thesis is the result that cost benefits of inventory routing are derived from the joint decision model that accounts for the underlying set-dependent cost structure rather than the level of information sharing. This result suggests that the value of information sharing of demand and inventory data is likely to be overstated in prior literature. In other words, cost benefits of inventory routing are primarily determined by the cost structure (i.e. level of fixed costs and transportation costs) rather than the level of information sharing, joint forecasting, forecasting accuracy or service levels.

Risk minimization in water quality control problems of a river system

Methodologies are presented for minimization of risk in a river water quality management problem. A risk minimization model is developed to minimize the risk of low water quality along a river in the face of conflict among various stake holders. The model consists of three parts: a water quality simulation model, a risk evaluation model with uncertainty analysis and an optimization model. Sensitivity analysis, First Order Reliability Analysis (FORA) and Monte-Carlo simulations are performed to evaluate the fuzzy risk of low water quality. Fuzzy multiobjective programming is used to formulate the multiobjective model. Probabilistic Global Search Laussane (PGSL), a global search algorithm developed recently, is used for solving the resulting non-linear optimization problem. The algorithm is based on the assumption that better sets of points are more likely to be found in the neighborhood of good sets of points, therefore intensifying the search in the regions that contain good solutions. Another model is developed for risk minimization, which deals with only the moments of the generated probability density functions of the water quality indicators. Suitable skewness values of water quality indicators, which lead to low fuzzy risk are identified. Results of the models are compared with the results of a deterministic fuzzy waste load allocation model (FWLAM), when methodologies are applied to the case study of Tunga-Bhadra river system in southern India, with a steady state BOD-DO model. The fractional removal levels resulting from the risk minimization model are slightly higher, but result in a significant reduction in risk of low water quality. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A method for Estimating the Degree of Uncertainty With Respect to Life Cycle Assessment During Design

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to estimate a product's environmental impact. Using LCA during the earlier stages of design may produce erroneous results since information available on the product's lifecycle is typically incomplete at these stages. The resulting uncertainty must be accounted for in the decision-making process. This paper proposes a method for estimating the environmental impact of a product's life cycle and the associated degree of uncertainty of that impact using information generated during the design process. Total impact is estimated based on aggregation of individual product life cycle processes impacts. Uncertainty estimation is based on assessing the mismatch between the information required and the information available about the product life cycle in each uncertainty category, as well as their integration. The method is evaluated using pre-defined scenarios with varying uncertainty. DOI: 10.1115/1.4002163]

Performance Optimization of Induction Motor-Pump System Using Photovoltaic Energy Source

The optimization of a photovoltaic pumping system based on an induction motor driven pump that is powered by a solar array is presented in this paper. The motor-pump subsystem is analyzed from the point of view of optimizing the power requirement of the induction motor, which has led to an optimum u-f relationship useful in controlling the motor. The complete pumping system is implemented using a dc-dc converter, a three-phase inverter, and an induction motor-pump set. The dc-dc converter is used as a power conditioner and its duty cycle is controlled so as to match the load to the array. A microprocessor-based controller is used to carry out the load-matching.