Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda linha do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

Análise experimental do efeito da diversificação em carteiras de ações: a relação entre risco e quantidade de ativos sob a ótica da estratégia ingênua

The objective is to analyze the relationship between risk and number of stocks of a portfolio for an individual investor when stocks are chosen by "naive strategy". For this, we carried out an experiment in which individuals select actions to reproduce this relationship. 126 participants were informed that the risk of first choice would be an asset average of all standard deviations of the portfolios consist of a single asset, and the same procedure should be used for portfolios composed of two, three and so on, up to 30 actions . They selected the assets they want in their portfolios without the support of a financial analysis. For comparison we also tested a hypothetical simulation of 126 investors who selected shares the same universe, through a random number generator. Thus, each real participant is compensated for random hypothetical investor facing the same opportunity. Patterns were observed in the portfolios of individual participants, characterizing the curves for the components of the samples. Because these groupings are somewhat arbitrary, it was used a more objective measure of behavior: a simple linear regression for each participant, in order to predict the variance of the portfolio depending on the number of assets. In addition, we conducted a pooled regression on all observations by analyzing cross-section. The result of pattern occurs on average but not for most individuals, many of which effectively "de-diversify" when adding seemingly random bonds. Furthermore, the results are slightly worse using a random number generator. This finding challenges the belief that only a small number of titles is necessary for diversification and shows that there is only applicable to a large sample. The implications are important since many individual investors holding few stocks in their portfolios

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

As reações do mercado acionista e obrigacionista dos GIPSI às notícias da Troika durante o período de crise financeira: 2010-2013

A zona euro e mais concretamente o conjunto de países constituído por Grécia, Itália, Portugal, Espanha e Irlanda chamado de GIPSI, atravessam uma das maiores crises desde a Grande Depressão. De forma a ajudar estes países mais afetados, um conjunto de organizações internacionais (FMI/BCE/CE) apelidado de Troika, tem unido esforços para debelar as dificuldades de financiamento e criarem políticas de reforma com o objetivo de devolver a independência e potenciar o crescimento económico dos mesmos. As ações e comunicados destas organizações passaram assim a gozar de uma maior visibilidade e interesse por parte dos investidores. Tendo isso em conta, neste trabalho estudamos o impacto das notícias da Troika nos mercados acionista e obrigacionista dos GIPSI, com um maior foco no mercado português. Em Portugal não encontramos evidência de que as notícias diretamente relacionadas com as ações e comunicações da Troika têm efetivamente impactos significativos, quer no mercado acionista, quer no obrigacionista. No entanto, as notícias de carácter internacional sobre a crise, respeitantes aos outros países afetados, impactaram de forma significativa o PSI 20, especialmente quando estas foram boas, assim como outras notícias relativas a avaliações, anúncios de apoio ou críticas de outras organizações europeias e mundiais, bem como como de líderes de países intervenientes na ajuda aos países afetados e anúncios macroeconómicos, sendo que aqui esse impacto foi mais sentido nas más notícias. No mercado obrigacionista, voltamos a ter impactos significativos dos mesmos tipos de notícias juntando-se aqui as notícias relativas às medidas tomadas pelo Governo português e outros agentes governamentais. Os restantes mercados, Espanha e Grécia apresentaram impactos significativos no mercado acionista e obrigacionista, o que nos leva a confirmar estudos anteriores de que notícias relacionadas com a crise têm efeitos para além do país visado e impactam de forma significativa outros mercados, em especial os mais afetados.

O risco dos bancos, regulação e a crise financeira internacional

Dissertação de Mestrado, Ciências Económicas e Empresariais, 13 de Julho de 2016, Universidade dos Açores.

Educação superior em turismo: o profissional de turismo frente às competências exigidas pelo mercado de trabalho do setor hoteleiro em Natal

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda linha do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

Análise experimental do efeito da diversificação em carteiras de ações: a relação entre risco e quantidade de ativos sob a ótica da estratégia ingênua

The objective is to analyze the relationship between risk and number of stocks of a portfolio for an individual investor when stocks are chosen by "naive strategy". For this, we carried out an experiment in which individuals select actions to reproduce this relationship. 126 participants were informed that the risk of first choice would be an asset average of all standard deviations of the portfolios consist of a single asset, and the same procedure should be used for portfolios composed of two, three and so on, up to 30 actions . They selected the assets they want in their portfolios without the support of a financial analysis. For comparison we also tested a hypothetical simulation of 126 investors who selected shares the same universe, through a random number generator. Thus, each real participant is compensated for random hypothetical investor facing the same opportunity. Patterns were observed in the portfolios of individual participants, characterizing the curves for the components of the samples. Because these groupings are somewhat arbitrary, it was used a more objective measure of behavior: a simple linear regression for each participant, in order to predict the variance of the portfolio depending on the number of assets. In addition, we conducted a pooled regression on all observations by analyzing cross-section. The result of pattern occurs on average but not for most individuals, many of which effectively "de-diversify" when adding seemingly random bonds. Furthermore, the results are slightly worse using a random number generator. This finding challenges the belief that only a small number of titles is necessary for diversification and shows that there is only applicable to a large sample. The implications are important since many individual investors holding few stocks in their portfolios

Estudo comparativo entre técnicas de aprendizado de máquina para estimação de risco de crédito

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Administração, 2016.

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Análise dos efeitos no desempenho e risco da melhoria das práticas de sustentabilidade e governança no mercado de capitais brasileiro no período compreendido entre 2005 e 2009

Procurou-se investigar possível associação entre a melhoria de práticas de sustentabilidade e de governança corporativa com melhores desempenhos e menores riscos. Nesse sentido, foram utilizados o retorno sobre os ativos e o retorno sobre o capital próprio como indicadores da variável desempenho. A volatilidade e o beta das empresas, calculado utilizando-se o retorno mensal, no período de 60 meses, das ações das empresas contidas na amostra, foram utilizados como indicadores da variável risco. A variável melhoria das práticas de sustentabilidade e de governança foi mensurada a partir da construção de uma variável dummy que contém o valor 1 quando a empresa participava concomitantemente do Índice de Sustentabilidade Empresarial e do Nível 2 ou Novo Mercado da BM&FBovespa, entendidos como Níveis Diferenciados de Governança Corporativa. Quando essa participação concomitante não ocorre o indicador recebe o valor zero. Uma amostra de 188 empresas, cujas ações apresentaram um mínimo de liquidez, com ações listadas na BM&FBovespa, nos anos de 2005 a 2009, foi selecionada para a aplicação do método das regressões lineares em cross-section para cada um dos anos do período investigado. Como teste de robustez dos resultados foi aplicado o método das regressões lineares com dados em painel. Resultados estatisticamente significativos foram encontrados para a relação entre o indicador de participação conjunta no ISE e no Nível 2 ou Novo Mercado da BM&FBovespa e o retorno sobre ativos. Além desta, outras relações entre essa variável dummy e outras variáveis de controle utilizadas nas regressões lineares, também foram observadas.

Conciliar tensões entre as dimensões social e financeira em projetos de impact investment : um estudo de caso

Mestrado em Ciências Empresariais

Factores económicos do risco sistemático nas carteiras de investimento: o caso português

Dissertação de mest. em Ciências Económicas e Empresariais, Unidade de Ciências Económicas e Empresariais, Univ. do Algarve, 1996

Actuação do Investimento Chinês no Mercado Angolano: Estratégia, Impactos e Tendências

Com o final da guerra civil em 2002 e depois de Angola ver o seu pedido nos países doadores a ser rejeitado, a política externa chinesa encontrou um parceiro em busca de socorro e será uma resposta adequada às preocupações de desenvolvimento e atração de investimentos estrangeiros em Angola. Hoje as relações China-Angola representam um exemplo na propaganda económica da China no seu relacionamento com os países exportadores de recursos naturais, em especial o petróleo, como principal elemento na segurança energética e para o crescimento sustentável da sua economia, e a reconstrução e reparação das infra-estruturas como pilares de desenvolvimento da economia angolana. O modelo das relações sino-angolanas pode ser interpretada da seguinte forma, para a China, Angola oferece possibilidades de garantir fornecimento estável, em troca de ajuda para viabilizar as infra-estruturas para a extracção e a comercialização das riquezas naturais. Angola também é vista para com a China como um aliado na política externa chinesa de ascensão pacífica, na qual a China busca convencer o Mundo de que a sua geopolítica externa e fortalecimento não são ameaças a ordens internacionais e nem para os interesses do Ocidente. A natureza do envolvimento chinês em África aglomera uma multiplicidade de interesses e interliga várias considerações tácticas e estratégicas. A coligação de investimentos em diferentes sectores permitiu o acesso a um conjunto de oportunidades, antes do conhecimento público de outros actores. Como resultado, existem países a expressar ansiedade e preocupação com a escala de actividades da China no continente africano. Esta situação torna-se mais evidente em Angola, onde existe um longo historial de interligação de redes de relacionamento. A complexidade e o crescimento acelerado da relação originaram análises muito enfatizadas em aspectos sectoriais. Uma indagação mais abrangente e p rofunda proporcionará a compreensão necessária para avaliar diversas abordagens.

Fundos de investimento : um tipo societário autônomo e suas principais características

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Direito, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Direito, 2016.