Essays in equilibrium asset pricing

This thesis consists of four essays in equilibrium asset pricing. The main topic is investors' heterogeneity: I investigates the equilibrium implications for the financial markets when investors have different attitudes toward risk. The first chapter studies why expected risk and remuneration on the aggregate market are negatively related, even if intuition and standard theory suggest a positive relation. I show that the negative trade-off can obtain in equilibrium if investors' beliefs about economic fundamentals are procyclically biased and the market Sharpe ratio is countercyclical. I verify that such conditions hold in the real markets and I find empirical support for the risk-return dynamics predicted by the model. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay studies how het¬erogeneity in risk preferences interacts with other sources of heterogeneity and how this affects asset prices in equilibrium. Using perceived macroeconomic un¬certainty as source of heterogeneity, the model helps to explain some patterns of financial returns, even if heterogeneity is small as suggested by survey data. The second essay determines conditions such that equilibrium prices have analytical solutions when investors have heterogeneous risk attitudes and macroeconomic fundamentals feature latent uncertainty. This approach provides additional in-sights to the previous literature where models require numerical solutions. The third chapter studies why equity claims (i.e. assets paying a single future dividend) feature premia and risk decreasing with the horizon, even if standard models imply the opposite shape. I show that labor relations helps to explain the puzzle. When workers have bargaining power to exploit partial income insurance within the firm, wages are smoother and dividends are riskier than in a standard economy. Distributional risk among workers and shareholders provides a rationale to the equity short-term risk, which leads to downward sloping term structures of premia and risk for equity claim. Résumé Cette thèse se compose de quatre essais dans l'évaluation des actifs d'équilibre. Le sujet principal est l'hétérogénéité des investisseurs: J'étudie les implications d'équilibre pour les marchés financiers où les investisseurs ont des attitudes différentes face au risque. Le première chapitre étudie pourquoi attendus risque et la rémunération sur le marché global sont liées négativement, même si l'intuition et la théorie standard suggèrent une relation positive. Je montre que le compromis négatif peut obtenir en équilibre si les croyances des investisseurs sur les fondamentaux économiques sont procyclique biaisées et le ratio de Sharpe du marché est anticyclique. Je vérifier que ces conditions sont réalisées dans les marchés réels et je trouve un appui empirique à la dynamique risque-rendement prédites par le modèle. Le deuxième chapitre se compose de deux essais. Le première essai étudie com¬ment hétérogénéité dans les préférences de risque inter agit avec d'autres sources d'hétérogénéité et comment cela affecte les prix des actifs en équilibre. Utili¬sation de l'incertitude macroéconomique perù comme source d'hétérogénéité, le modèle permet d'expliquer certaines tendances de rendements financiers, même si l'hétérogénéité est faible comme suggéré par les données d'enquête. Le deuxième essai détermine des conditions telles que les prix d'équilibre disposer de solutions analytiques lorsque les investisseurs ont des attitudes des risques hétérogènes et les fondamentaux macroéconomiques disposent d'incertitude latente. Cette approche fournit un éclairage supplémentaire à la littérature antérieure où les modèles nécessitent des solutions numériques. Le troisième chapitre étudie pourquoi les equity-claims (actifs que paient un seul dividende futur) ont les primes et le risque décroissante avec l'horizon, mme si les modèles standards impliquent la forme opposée. Je montre que les relations de travail contribue à expliquer l'énigme. Lorsque les travailleurs ont le pouvoir de négociation d'exploiter assurance revenu partiel dans l'entreprise, les salaires sont plus lisses et les dividendes sont plus risqués que dans une économie standard. Risque de répartition entre les travailleurs et les actionnaires fournit une justification à le risque à court terme, ce qui conduit à des term-structures en pente descendante des primes et des risques pour les equity-claims.

Director of Public Health annual report 2013 and additional core tables Recognising diversity in Public Health

The fifth Director of Public Health Annual Report for Northern Ireland, launched on 16 June 2014, celebrates diversity in our population.Diversity is about people and how we value and appreciate those who are not like us. People differ in all sorts of ways which may not always be obvious or visible. These differences might include race and ethnicity, culture and belief, gender and sexuality, age and social status, ability, and use of health and social care services

Additional effect of hypnosis in an in-patient detoxification program: results of a pilot clinical trial

The present study aims to examine the additional effects of hypnosis in the reduction of withdrawal syndrome in an inpatient detoxification treatment program. Thirty-two in-patients aged between 18 and 65 meeting the DSM-IV criteria for multiple substance dependence were randomly assigned to hypnosis condition (two sessions of standardized Ericksonian technique) or control condition (two sessions of standardized support interview). The primary outcome measures were the Short Opiate Withdrawal Scale (SOWS) and Visual Analogue Scales (withdrawal symptoms, craving, depressive mood, anxiety and nervousness). Significant reductions for most outcome measures were found for the total sample. Hypnosis was effective in reducing withdrawal symptoms, however, without significant differences compared to control group.

The influence of sentinel lymph node tumour burden on additional lymph node involvement and disease-free survival in cutaneous melanoma: a retrospective analysis of 392 cases

Twenty per cent of sentinel lymph node (SLN)-positive melanoma patients have positive non-SLN lymph nodes in completion lymph node dissection (CLND). We investigated SLN tumour load, non-sentinel positivity and disease-free survival (DFS) to assess whether certain patients could be spared CLND. Sentinel lymph node biopsy was performed on 392 patients between 1999 and 2005. Median observation period was 38.8 months. Sentinel lymph node tumour load did not predict non-SLN positivity: 30.8% of patients with SLN macrometastases (> or =2 mm) and 16.4% with micrometastases (< or =2 mm) had non-SLN positivity (P=0.09). Tumour recurrences after positive SLNs were more than twice as frequent for SLN macrometastases (51.3%) than for micrometastases (24.6%) (P=0.005). For patients with SLN micrometastases, the DFS analysis was worse (P=0.003) when comparing those with positive non-SLNs (60% recurrences) to those without (17.6% recurrences). This difference did not translate into significant differences in DFS: patients with SLN micrometastasis, either with (P=0.022) or without additional positive non-SLNs (P<0.0001), fared worse than patients with tumour-free SLNs. The 2-mm cutoff for SLN tumour load accurately predicts differences in DFS. Non-SLN positivity in CLND, however, cannot be predicted. Therefore, contrary to other studies, no recommendations concerning discontinuation of CLND based on SLN tumour load can be deduced.

Progression from high insulin resistance to type 2 diabetes does not entail additional visceral adipose tissue inflammation.

Obesity is associated with a low-grade chronic inflammation state. As a consequence, adipose tissue expresses pro-inflammatory cytokines that propagate inflammatory responses systemically elsewhere, promoting whole-body insulin resistance and consequential islet β-cell exhaustation. Thus, insulin resistance is considered the early stage of type 2 diabetes. However, there is evidence of obese individuals that never develop diabetes indicating that the mechanisms governing the association between the increase of inflammatory factors and type 2 diabetes are much more complex and deserve further investigation. We studied for the first time the differences in insulin signalling and inflammatory pathways in blood and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) of 20 lean healthy donors and 40 equal morbidly obese (MO) patients classified in high insulin resistance (high IR) degree and diabetes state. We studied the changes in proinflammatory markers and lipid content from serum; macrophage infiltration, mRNA expression of inflammatory cytokines and transcription factors, activation of kinases involved in inflammation and expression of insulin signalling molecules in VAT. VAT comparison of these experimental groups revealed that type 2 diabetic-MO subjects exhibit the same pro-inflammatory profile than the high IR-MO patients, characterized by elevated levels of IL-1β, IL-6, TNFα, JNK1/2, ERK1/2, STAT3 and NFκB. Our work rules out the assumption that the inflammation should be increased in obese people with type 2 diabetes compared to high IR obese. These findings indicate that some mechanisms, other than systemic and VAT inflammation must be involved in the development of type 2 diabetes in obesity.

Phase III trial of consolidation therapy with yttrium-90-ibritumomab tiuxetan compared with no additional therapy after first remission in advanced follicular lymphoma.

PURPOSE: We conducted an international, randomized, phase III trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of consolidation with yttrium-90 ((90)Y)-ibritumomab tiuxetan in patients with advanced-stage follicular lymphoma in first remission. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with CD20(+) stage III or IV follicular lymphoma, who achieved a complete response (CR)/unconfirmed CR (CRu) or partial response (PR) after first-line induction treatment, were randomly assigned to receive (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan (rituximab 250 mg/m(2) on day -7 and day 0 followed on day 0 by (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan 14.8 MBq/kg; maximum of 1,184 MBq) or no further treatment (control). The primary end point was progression-free survival (PFS), which was calculated from the time of random assignment. RESULTS: A total of 414 patients (consolidation, n = 208; control, n = 206) were enrolled at 77 centers. (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan consolidation significantly prolonged median PFS (after a median observation time of 3.5 years) in all patients (36.5 v 13.3 months in control arm; hazard ratio [HR] = 0.465; P &lt; .0001) and regardless of whether patients achieved PR (29.3 v 6.2 months in control arm; HR = 0.304; P &lt; .0001) or CR/CRu (53.9 v 29.5 months in control arm; HR = 0.613; P = .0154) after induction treatment. Median PFS with consolidation was prolonged in all Follicular Lymphoma International Prognostic Index risk subgroups. After (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan consolidation, 77% of patients in PR after induction converted to CR/CRu, resulting in a final CR rate of 87%. The most common toxicity with (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan was hematologic, and grade 3 or 4 infections occurred in 8% of patients. CONCLUSION: Consolidation of first remission with (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan in advanced-stage follicular lymphoma is highly effective with no unexpected toxicities, prolonging PFS by 2 years and resulting in high PR-to-CR conversion rates regardless of type of first-line induction treatment.

Comparison of plantar pressure distribution in adolescent runners at low vs. high running velocity.

This study aimed to compare foot plantar pressure distribution while jogging and running in highly trained adolescent runners. Eleven participants performed two constant-velocity running trials either at jogging (11.2 ± 0.9 km/h) or running (17.8 ± 1.4 km/h) pace on a treadmill. Contact area (CA in cm(2)), maximum force (F(max) in N), peak pressure (PP in kPa), contact time (CT in ms), and relative load (force time integral in each individual region divided by the force time integral for the total plantar foot surface, in %) were measured in nine regions of the right foot using an in-shoe plantar pressure device. Under the whole foot, CA, F(max) and PP were lower in jogging than in running (-1.2% [p<0.05], -12.3% [p<0.001] and -15.1% [p<0.01] respectively) whereas CT was higher (+20.1%; p<0.001). Interestingly, we found an increase in relative load under the medial and central forefoot regions while jogging (+6.7% and +3.7%, respectively; [p<0.05]), while the relative load under the lesser toes (-8.4%; p<0.05) was reduced. In order to prevent overloading of the metatarsals in adolescent runners, excessive mileage at jogging pace should be avoided.

Imputation in data fusion of heterogeneous data sets a model-based numerical experiment

Given the very large amount of data obtained everyday through population surveys, much of the new research again could use this information instead of collecting new samples. Unfortunately, relevant data are often disseminated into different files obtained through different sampling designs. Data fusion is a set of methods used to combine information from different sources into a single dataset. In this article, we are interested in a specific problem: the fusion of two data files, one of which being quite small. We propose a model-based procedure combining a logistic regression with an Expectation-Maximization algorithm. Results show that despite the lack of data, this procedure can perform better than standard matching procedures.

Schistosoma mansoni in a low-prevalence area in Brazil: the importance of additional methods for the diagnosis of hard-to-detect individual carriers by low-cost immunological assays

Schistosomiasis diagnosis is based on the detection of eggs in the faeces, which is laborious and lacks sensitivity, especially for patients with a low parasite burden. Immunological assays for specific antibody detection are available, but they usually demonstrate low sensitivity and/or specificity. In this study, two simple immunological assays were evaluated for the detection of soluble Schistosoma mansoni adult worm preparation (SWAP) and egg-specific IgGs. These studies have not yet been evaluated for patients with low parasite burdens. Residents of an endemic area in Brazil donated sera and faecal samples for our study. The patients were initially diagnosed by a rigorous Kato-Katz analysis of 18 thick smears from four different stool samples. The ELISA-SWAP was successful for human diagnosis with 90% sensitivity and specificity, confirming the Kato-Katz diagnosis with nearly perfect agreement, as seen by the Kappa index (0.85). Although the ELISA-soluble S. mansoni egg antigen was 85% sensitive, it exhibited low specificity (80%; Kappa index: 0.75) and was more susceptible to cross-reactivity. We believe that immunological assays should be used in conjunction with Kato-Katz analysis as a supplementary tool for the diagnosis of schistosomiasis for patients with low infection burdens, which are usually hard to detect.

Segmentation and grid generation for numerical simulations of vad connections with patient-specific data

Objectives: We are interested in the numerical simulation of the anastomotic region comprised between outflow canula of LVAD and the aorta. Segmenta¬tion, geometry reconstruction and grid generation from patient-specific data remain an issue because of the variable quality of DICOM images, in particular CT-scan (e.g. metallic noise of the device, non-aortic contrast phase). We pro¬pose a general framework to overcome this problem and create suitable grids for numerical simulations.Methods: Preliminary treatment of images is performed by reducing the level window and enhancing the contrast of the greyscale image using contrast-limited adaptive histogram equalization. A gradient anisotropic diffusion filter is applied to reduce the noise. Then, watershed segmentation algorithms and mathematical morphology filters allow reconstructing the patient geometry. This is done using the InsightToolKit library (www.itk.org). Finally the Vascular Model¬ing ToolKit (www.vmtk.org) and gmsh (www.geuz.org/gmsh) are used to create the meshes for the fluid (blood) and structure (arterial wall, outflow canula) and to a priori identify the boundary layers. The method is tested on five different patients with left ventricular assistance and who underwent a CT-scan exam.Results: This method produced good results in four patients. The anastomosis area is recovered and the generated grids are suitable for numerical simulations. In one patient the method failed to produce a good segmentation because of the small dimension of the aortic arch with respect to the image resolution.Conclusions: The described framework allows the use of data that could not be otherwise segmented by standard automatic segmentation tools. In particular the computational grids that have been generated are suitable for simulations that take into account fluid-structure interactions. Finally the presented method features a good reproducibility and fast application.

Impact of additional cytogenetic aberrations at diagnosis on prognosis of CML: long-term observation of 1151 patients from the randomized CML Study IV.

The prognostic relevance of additional cytogenetic findings at diagnosis of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is unclear. The impact of additional cytogenetic findings at diagnosis on time to complete cytogenetic (CCR) and major molecular remission (MMR) and progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was analyzed using data from 1151 Philadelphia chromosome-positive (Ph(+)) CML patients randomized to the German CML Study IV. At diagnosis, 1003 of 1151 patients (87%) had standard t(9;22)(q34;q11) only, 69 patients (6.0%) had variant t(v;22), and 79 (6.9%) additional cytogenetic aberrations (ACAs). Of these, 38 patients (3.3%) lacked the Y chromosome (-Y) and 41 patients (3.6%) had ACAs except -Y; 16 of these (1.4%) were major route (second Philadelphia [Ph] chromosome, trisomy 8, isochromosome 17q, or trisomy 19) and 25 minor route (all other) ACAs. After a median observation time of 5.3 years for patients with t(9;22), t(v;22), -Y, minor- and major-route ACAs, the 5-year PFS was 90%, 81%, 88%, 96%, and 50%, and the 5-year OS was 92%, 87%, 91%, 96%, and 53%, respectively. In patients with major-route ACAs, the times to CCR and MMR were longer and PFS and OS were shorter (P < .001) than in patients with standard t(9;22). We conclude that major-route ACAs at diagnosis are associated with a negative impact on survival and signify progression to the accelerated phase and blast crisis.

Occurrence, risk factors, diagnosis and treatment of syphilis in the prospective observational Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Annual syphilis testing was reintroduced in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) in 2004. We prospectively studied occurrence, risk factors, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches and treatment of syphilis. METHODS: Over a period of 33 months, participants with positive test results for Treponema pallidum hemagglutination assay were studied using the SHCS database and an additional structured case report form. RESULTS: Of 7244 cohort participants, 909 (12.5%) had positive syphilis serology. Among these, 633 had previously been treated and had no current signs or symptoms of syphilis at time of testing. Of 218 patients with newly detected untreated syphilis, 20% reported genitooral contacts as only risk behavior and 60% were asymptomatic. Newly detected syphilis was more frequent among men who have sex with men (MSM) [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.8, P < 0.001], in persons reporting casual sexual partners (adjusted OR 2.8, P < 0.001) and in MSM of younger age (P = 0.05). Only 35% of recommended cerebrospinal fluid (CFS) examinations were performed. Neurosyphilis was diagnosed in four neurologically asymptomatic patients; all of them had a Venereal Disease Research Laboratory (VDRL) titer of 1:>or=32. Ninety-one percent of the patients responded to treatment with at least a four-fold decline in VDRL titer. CONCLUSION: Syphilis remains an important coinfection in the SHCS justifying reintroduction of routine screening. Genitooral contact is a significant way of transmission and young MSM are at high risk for syphilis. Current guidelines to rule out neurosyphilis by CSF analysis are inconsistently followed in clinical practice. Serologic treatment response is above 90% in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy.