Impacts of foreign exchange auctions on the informal market rate in Myanmar

Since the abolition of the official peg and the introduction of a managed float in April 2012, the Central Bank of Myanmar has operated the daily two–way auctions of foreign exchange aimed at smoothing exchange rate fluctuations. Despite the reforms to the foreign exchange regime, however, informal trading of foreign exchange remains pervasive. Using the daily informal exchange rate and Central Bank auction data, this study examines the impacts of auctions on the informal market rate. First, a VAR analysis indicates that the official rate did not Granger cause the informal rate. Second, GARCH models indicate that the auctions did not reduce the conditional variance of the informal rate returns. Overall, the auctions have only a quite modest impact on the informal exchange rate.

Measuring smile curves in global value chains

The concept and logic of the "smile curve" in the context of global value chains has been widely used and discussed at the individual firm level, but rarely identified and investigated at the country and industry levels by using real data. This paper proposes an idea, based on an inter-country input-output model, to consistently measure both the strength and length of linkages between producers and consumers along global value chains. This idea allows for better identification and mapping of smile curves for countries and industries according to their positions and degrees of participation in a given conceptual value chain. Using the 1995-2011 World Input-Output Tables, several conceptual value chains are investigated, including exports of electrical and optical equipment from China and Mexico and exports of automobiles from Japan and Germany. The identified smile curves provide a very intuitive and visual image, which can significantly improve our understanding of the roles played by different countries and industries in global value chains. Further, the smile curves help identify the benefits gained by these countries and industries through their participation in global trade.

Production fragmentation, upstreamness, and value-added : evidence from factory Asia 1990-2005

We exploit the recent release of the 2005 Asian Input-Output Matrix to dress a picture of the geographic fragmentation of value added in Factory Asia from 1990 to 2005. We document 3 stylized facts. The first is that the average share of foreign value added embedded in production rose by about 7 percentage points between 1990 and 2005, from 9% to 16%. The second is that, contrary to popular belief, China's production embeds a smaller share of foreign value added than other Factory Asia countries'. Between 1990 and 2005 among Factory Asia countries China grew most after Japan as a source of value added to other countries' production. Third, country-industries at the upstream and downstream extremities of the supply chain embed a smaller share of foreign value added than those with intermediate levels of upstreamness.

Measuring the costs of FTA utilization : evidence from transaction-level import data of Thailand

In this study, we measure the utilization costs of free trade agreement (FTA) tariff schemes. To do that, we use shipment-level customs data on Thai imports, which identify not only firms, source country, and commodity but also tariff schemes. We propose several measures as a proxy for FTA utilization costs. The example includes the minimum amount of firm-level savings on tariff payments, i.e., trade values under FTA schemes multiplied by the tariff margin, in all transactions. Consequently, the median costs for FTA utilization in 2008, for example, are estimated to be approximately US$2,000 for exports from China, US$300 for exports from Australia, and US$1,000 for exports from Japan. We also found that FTA utilization costs differ by rule of origin and industry.

Using the input-output approach to measure participation in GVCs : the case of Costa Rica

In order to illustrate how the input-output approach can be used to explore various aspects of a country's participation in GVCs, this paper applies indicators derived from the concept of trade in value-added (TiVA) to the case of Costa Rica. We intend to provide developing countries that seek to foster GVC-driven structural transformation with an example that demonstrates an effective way to measure progress. The analysis presented in this paper makes use of an International Input-Output Table (IIOT) that was constructed by including Costa Rica's first Input-Output Table (IOT) into an existing IIOT. The TiVA indicator has been used to compare and contrast import flows, export flows and bilateral trade balances in terms of gross trade and trade in value-added. The country's comparative advantage is discussed based on a TiVA-related indicator of revealed comparative advantage. The paper also decomposes the domestic content of value added in each sector and measures the degree of fragmentation in the value chains in which Costa Rica participates, highlighting the partner countries that add the most value.

ANALISANDO A RELAÇÃO DOS VOLUMES DE EXPORTAÇÃO E DE IMPORTAÇÃO, PIB, TAXAS DE CÂMBIO E INFLAÇÃO NO PERÍODO DE 2004 A 2014.

Esta dissertação visa deslumbrar uma análise macroeconômica do Brasil, especialmente no que se refere à relação dos índices mensais dos volumes das exportações e das importações com os volumes mensais do PIB, da Taxa SELIC e as Taxas de Câmbio, conforme dados coletados no período de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2014, através de pesquisa literária referente aos históricos sobre cada conceito envolvido no âmbito da macroeconomia das varáveis estudadas. Foi realizado um estudo de caso embasado em dados de sites governamentais, no período delimitado, empregando-se o método de regressão linear, com base na Teoria da correlação de Pearson, demonstrando os resultados obtidos no período do estudo para as varáveis estudadas. Desta maneira, conseguiu-se estudar e analisar como as variáveis dependentes (resposta): volume das exportações e volume das importações estão relacionadas com as varáveis independentes (explicativas): PIB, Taxa Selic e taxa de Câmbio. Os resultados apurados no presente estudo permitem identificar que existe correlação moderada e negativa, quando analisadas a Taxa Selic e a Taxa de Câmbio com os volumes das exportações e das importações, enquanto o PIB apresenta correlação forte e positiva na análise com os volumes das exportações e das importações

Enhancing the Brazil-EU Strategic Partnership: From the Bilateral and Regional to the Global. CEPS Paperback. October 2013

This book examines the Brazil-EU Strategic Partnership and is the result of a project that ‘twinned’ five sets of eminent Brazilian and European scholars to investigate themes of undoubted strategic significance: macroeconomics, trade policy, climate change, foreign policy and continental regionalism. Results show that while the two parties cannot claim to determine global policies, they can develop a specialist niche in global affairs, working together in the avant-garde of those searching for workable global solutions, seeking to bridge the frequent wide differences between the West and the rest, or North and South, or old powers and new ones.

European Union and its member states as a collective actor in WTO decision-making process. ACES Cases No. 2010.3

This paper will outline and analyze the decision-making process in WTO matters. First, the players of the decision-making process -- the Council of the European Union (Council), the Trade Policy Committee, the Commission, and the European Parliament -- will be examined. Then the distinction will be made between decision-making in initiating WTO disputes and decision-making conducting trade agreement negotiations in the WTO. Then, decision-making practices in WTO matters will be assessed against constitutional principles of transparency, accountability, and legitimacy. After this assessment, conclusions will be drawn.

The WTO and Female Labor Rights in Developing Countries. IES WORKING PAPER 3/2008

The impacts of WTO on women’s labour rights in the developing countries have been raised to the international agenda by various nongovernmental organizations. On the one hand it is assumed that international trade policies are gender neutral. On the other hand a number of authors hold the view that the negative impacts of WTO policies are more pronounced on female than male workers. This paper takes a critical look at these claims. It argues that the impact of the WTO system, the driving force of trade liberalization, on women’s labour rights in the developing countries is a complicated issue, because the effects have been both negative and positive. In support of this claim, this paper first briefly reviews the international framework for the protection of women’s labour rights. Next, the WTO agreements and policies are analysed insofar as they are relevant for the protection of women’s labour rights. The analysis covers, for example, the use of the trade policy review mechanism and restrictions of trade on grounds of violation of public morals.. Finally, a case study is conducted on the situation of female workers in Bangladesh and Pakistan, countries that have recently undergone a liberalization of trade in the textiles and clothing sectors. It is concluded that the increase of international trade in the developing countries has created many work opportunities for women, helped them to become more independent and allowed them to participate in the society more actively. However, it is at the same time posited that in order to comply with its own objectives of raising standards of living and full employment, the WTO should engage itself in active policies to overcome the negative aspects of trade on female workers in the developing countries.

2016 already puts its mark on the economic map of Europe. CEPS Essay No. 22/8 January 2016

The start of 2016 brought highly symbolic changes to the trade policy map of Europe between the EU- and Russian-led blocs, as the EU’s Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with Ukraine entered into force provisionally, while Russia moved in precisely the opposite direction by scrapping its free trade agreement with Ukraine. However the ongoing changes go far wider and deeper. The energy sector and major industries see disengagement between Ukraine and Russia, and Russia’s share in Ukrainian trade is falling substantially. New transport corridors with China may offer synergies with trade opportunities for all three DCFTA states, with Georgia first in line. Visa liberalisation for the entire DCFTA space is now firmly in prospect. Divergent macroeconomic trends between a recovering eurozone and recession in Russia will accentuate the changes in trade structures. A better organisation of the pan-European economic space is surely desirable, but prospects for links between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union remain problematic.

The Principle of Common Concern and Climate Change

Effective policies combating global warming and incentivising reduction of greenhouse gases face fundamental collective action problems. States defending short term interests avoid international commitments and seek to benefit from measures combating global warming taken elsewhere. The paper explores the potential of Common Concern as an emerging principle of international law, in particular international environmental law, in addressing collective action problems and the global commons. It expounds the contours of the principle, its relationship to common heritage of mankind, to shared and differentiated responsibility and to public goods. It explores its potential to provide the foundations not only for international cooperation, but also to justify, and delimitate at the same time, unilateral action at home and deploying extraterritorial effects in addressing the challenges of global warming and climate change mitigation. As unilateral measures mainly translate into measures of trade policy, the principle of Common Concern is inherently linked and limited by existing legal disciplines in particular of the law of the World Trade Organization.

The great Dominion; studies of Canada;

Introductory.--The North-west.--The Canadian Pacific railway.--Coal.--Eastern Canada.--British Columbia.--Northern Canada: the great fur country.--Trade relations and trade policy.--Labour, education and political tendencies.

La matriz de insumo-producto de América del Sur: principales supuestos y consideraciones metodológicas

Esta nota ha sido preparada como resultado del proyecto conjunto de la Comisión Económica para América latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) y el Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA) del Brasil para la elaboración de una matriz de insumo-producto interconectada para los países de América del Sur, instrumento que a su vez será de utilidad para el análisis de cadenas de valor en esa región.

The influence of regionalization and psychic distance on the direction of Australian exports

International business research has identified separately two distinct influences on the direction of firm internationalisation. One of those influences is psychic distance, the other is regionalisation. This paper sets out to test the influences of regionalisation and psychic distance on the direction of Australian merchandise exports. The paper applies a quantitative methodology using a multiple regression model on a large, purposively compiled data set. Unlike most previous outward internationalisation studies, which use the firm as the unit of analysis, this paper uses aggregated Australian export values by country destination and export category over an extended time period, 1990 to 2004. The findings show that regionalisation is the dominant influence on the direction of Australian merchandise exports. This has important trade policy implications for Australian state and federal governments, related export promotion agencies and for managers of Australian firms, as well as for international business researchers generally.