Seasonality and the valuation of commodity options

Price movements in many commodity markets exhibit significant seasonal patterns. However, given an observed futures price, a deterministic seasonal component at the price level is not relevant for the pricing of commodity options. In contrast, this is not true for the seasonal pattern observed in the volatility of the commodity price. Analyzing an extensive sample of soybean, corn, heating oil and natural gas options, we find that seasonality in volatility is an important aspect to consider when valuing these contracts. The inclusion of an appropriate seasonality adjustment significantly reduces pricing errors in these markets and yields more improvement in valuation accuracy than increasing the number of stochastic factors.

Does grammatical aspect affect motion event cognition? A cross-linguistic comparison of English and Swedish speakers

In this article, we explore whether cross-linguistic differences in grammatical aspect encoding may give rise to differences in memory and cognition. We compared native speakers of two languages that encode aspect differently (English and Swedish) in four tasks that examined verbal descriptions of stimuli, online triads matching, and memory-based triads matching with and without verbal interference. Results showed between-group differences in verbal descriptions and in memory-based triads matching. However, no differences were found in online triads matching and in memory-based triads matching with verbal interference. These findings need to be interpreted in the context of the overall pattern of performance, which indicated that both groups based their similarity judgments on common perceptual characteristics of motion events. These results show for the first time a cross-linguistic difference in memory as a function of differences in grammatical aspect encoding, but they also contribute to the emerging view that language fine tunes rather than shapes perceptual processes that are likely to be universal and unchanging.

(Re)enchanting geography? The nature of being critical and the character of critique in human geography

Enchantment is a term frequently used by human geographers to express delight, wonder or that which cannot be simply explained. However, it is a concept that has yet to be subject to sustained critique, specifically how it can be used to progress geographic thought and praxis. This paper makes sense of, and space for, the unintelligibility of enchantment in order to encourage a less repressed, more cheerful way of engaging with the geographies of the world. We track back through our disciplinary heritage to explore how geographers have employed enchantment as a force through which the world inspires affective attachment. We review the terrain of the debate surrounding recent geographical engagements with enchantment, focusing on the nature of being critical and the character of critique in human geography, offering a new ‘enchanted’ stance to our geographical endeavours. We argue that the moment of enchantment has not passed with the current challenging climate; if anything, it is more pressing.

Uso del espacio de cazadores recolectores y paleoambiente Holoceno en el Valle del Río Cisnes de Aisén, Chile

This paper presents results on archaeological research conducted at the Cisnes river basin (~44° S), valley which passes through several environments in western Patagonia, from the westernmost limits of the steppe to the Pacific channels. These are assessed in light of a palaeoenvironmental reconstruction spanning from the Late Pleistocene to the Holocene. Results allow interpreting different ways for approaching the environment; these are exposed both spatially and chronologically. Cultural units defined occupied the space discontinuously and ranking it differentially attending to environmental variability. We correlate our data with available archaeological information for Aisén and adjacent areas. Additionally, we discuss cultural continuity and eventual interaction of steppe hunter-gatherers with peoples from the western archipelagic area.

Chess Endgame News

The DTZ metric indicates the minimaxed 'Depth To Zeroing of the ply-count' for decisive positions. Ronald de Man's DTZ50' metric is a variant of the DTZ metric as moderated by the FIDE 50-move draw-claim rule. DTZ50'-depths are given to '50-move-rule draws' as well as to unconditionally decisive positions. This note defines a two-dimensional taxonomy of positions implicitly defined by DTZ50'. 'Decisive' positions may have values of (wins/losses) v =1/-1 or v = 2/-2. A position's depth in the new DTZ50' metric may be greater than, equal to or less than its DTZ depth. The six parts of the taxonomy are examined in detail, and illustrated by some 40 positions and 16 lines. Positions, lines and the annotation of these lines are supplied in the ancillary data files.

Profile of European adults interested in internet-based personalized nutrition: The Food4Me Study

Purpose Personalised intervention may have greater potential for reducing the global burden of non-communicable diseases and for promoting better health and wellbeing across the life-span than the conventional “one size fits all” approach. However, the characteristics of individuals interested in personalised nutrition (PN) are unclear. Therefore, the aim of this study was to describe the characteristics of European adults interested in taking part in an internet-based PN study. Methods Individuals from seven European countries (UK, Ireland, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Greece and Poland) were invited to participate in the study via the Food4Me website (http://www.food4me.org). Two screening questionnaires were used to collect data on socio-demographic, anthropometric and health characteristics as well as dietary intakes. Results A total of 5662 individuals expressed an interest in the study (mean age 40 ± 12.7; range 15-87 years). Of these 64.6% were female and 96.9% were Caucasian. Overall, 12.9% were smokers and 46.8% reported the presence of a clinically diagnosed disease. Furthermore, 46.9% were overweight or obese and 34.9% were sedentary during leisure time. Assessment of dietary intakes showed that 54.3% of individuals reported consuming at least 5 portions of fruit and vegetables per day, 45.9% consumed more than 3 servings of wholegrains and 37.2% limited their salt intake to less than 5.75g per day. Conclusions Our data indicate that individuals volunteering to participate in an internet-based PN study are broadly representative of the European adult population, most of whom had adequate nutrient intakes but who could benefit from improved dietary choices and greater physical activity. Future use of internet-based PN approaches is thus relevant to a wide target audience.

Cultural geography and enchantment: the affirmative constitution of geographical research

Thrift [2008. Non-representational theory: space, politics, affect, 65. Abingdon: Routledge] has identified disenchantment as “[o]ne of the most damaging ideas” within social scientific and humanities research. As we have argued elsewhere, “[m]etanarratives of disenchantment and their concomitant preoccupation with destructive power go some way toward accounting for the overwhelmingly ‘critical’ character of geographical theory over the last 40 years” [Woodyer, T. and Geoghegan, H., 2013. (Re)enchanting geography? The nature of being critical and the character of critique in human geography. Progress in Human Geography, 37 (2), 195–214]. Through its experimentation with different ways of working and writing, cultural geography plays an important role in challenging extant habits of critical thinking. In this paper, we use the concept of “enchantment” to make sense of the deep and powerful affinities exposed in our research experiences and how these might be used to pursue a critical, yet more cheerful way of engaging with the geographies of the world.

Phenylephrine and endothelin-1 upregulate connective tissue growth factor in neonatal rat cardiac myocytes.

Cardiac hypertrophy is associated with hypertrophic growth of cardiac myocytes and increased fibrosis. Much is known of the stimuli which promote myocyte hypertrophy and the changes associated with the response, but the links between the two are largely unknown. Using subtractive hybridization, we identified three genes which are acutely (<1 h) upregulated in neonatal rat ventricular myocytes exposed to the alpha-adrenergic agonist, phenylephrine. One represented connective tissue growth factor (CTGF) which is implicated in fibrosis and promotes hypertrophy in other cells. We further examined the expression of CTGF mRNA and protein in cardiac myocytes using quantitative PCR and immunoblotting, confirming that phenylephrine increased CTGF mRNA (maximal within 1 h) and protein (increased over 4 - 24 h). Endothelin-1 promoted a greater, though transient, increase in CTGF mRNA, but the increase in CTGF protein was sustained over 8 h. Neither agonist increased CTGF mRNA in cardiac non-myocytes. By increasing the expression of CTGF in cardiac myocytes, hypertrophic agonists such as phenylephrine and endothelin-1 may promote fibrosis. CTGF may also propagate the hypertrophic response initiated by these agonists.

Rhodosporidium toruloides cultivated in NaCl-enriched glucose-based media: adaptation dynamics and lipid production

In the present report and for the first time in the international literature, the impact of the addition of NaCl upon growth and lipid production on the oleaginous yeast Rhodosporidium toruloides was studied. Moreover, equally for first time, lipid production by R. toruloides was performed under non-aseptic conditions. Therefore, the potentiality of R. toruloides DSM 4444 to produce lipid in media containing several initial concentrations of NaCl with glucose employed as carbon source was studied. Preliminary batch-flask trials with increasing amounts of NaCl revealed the tolerance of the strain against NaCl content up to 6.0% (w/v). However, 4.0% (w/v) of NaCl stimulated lipid accumulation for this strain, by enhancing lipid production up to 71.3% (w/w) per dry cell weight. The same amount of NaCl was employed in pasteurized batch-flask cultures in order to investigate the role of the salt as bacterial inhibiting agent. The combination of NaCl and high glucose concentrations was found to satisfactorily suppress bacterial contamination of R. toruloides cultures under these conditions. Batch-bioreactor trials of the yeast in the same media with high glucose content (up to 150 g/L) resulted in satisfactory substrate assimilation, with almost linear kinetic profile for lipid production, regardless of the initial glucose concentration imposed. Finally, fed-batch bioreactor cultures led to the production of 37.2 g/L of biomass, accompanied by 64.5% (w/w) of lipid yield. Lipid yield per unit of glucose consumed received the very satisfactory value of 0.21 g/g, a value amongst the highest ones in the literature. The yeast lipid produced contained mainly oleic acid and to lesser extent palmitic and stearic acids, thus constituting a perfect starting material for “second generation” biodiesel

Going with the floe

Julia Wilkinson and a Zooniverse citizen-science team examine Arctic auroral data, using observations from the ill-fated 19th-century Arctic exploration ship USS Jeannette.

One-step reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction for the diagnosis of respiratory syncytial virus in children

Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is the main cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections in infants and children. Rapid diagnosis is required to permit appropriate care and treatment and to avoid unnecessary antibiotic use. Reverse transcriptase (RT-PCR) and indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA) methods have been considered important tools for virus detection due to their high sensitivity and specificity. In order to maximize use-simplicity and minimize the risk of sample cross-contamination inherent in two-step techniques, a RT-PCR method using only a single tube to detect HRSV in clinical samples was developed. Nasopharyngeal aspirates from 226 patients with acute respiratory illness, ranging from infants to 5 years old, were collected at the University Hospital of the University of Sao Paulo (HU-USP), and tested using IFA, one-step RT-PCR, and semi-nested RT-PCR. One hundred and two (45.1%) samples were positive by at least one of the three methods, and 75 (33.2%) were positive by all methods: 92 (40.7%) were positive by one-step RT-PCR, 84 (37.2%) by IFA, and 96 (42.5%) by the semi-nested RT-PCR technique. One-step RT-PCR was shown to be fast, sensitive, and specific for RSV diagnosis, without the added inconvenience and risk of false positive results associated with semi-nested PCR. The combined use of these two methods enhances HRSV detection. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New Species of Anops Bell, 1833 (Squamata, Amphisbaenia) from Jalapao Region in the Brazilian Cerrado

A new species of keel-headed amphisbaenian of the genus Anops is described from the Cerrado of the Jalapao region, Tocantins state, Brazil. This new species of Anops is described from a single specimen, which may be easily distinguished from the other species of the genus, Anops bilabialatus and Anops kingii, by showing an extremely narrow head (37.2% head length); a row of eight occipitals anterior to the first body annulus; temporal present, mental and postmental fused; four postgenial rows located between the malars; and two malars posterior to the second infralabial. The new species is the first of the genus found in the Cerrado core area, and, based on the available records, the single species in the genus may be restricted to this region.

Expressão imunohistoquímica do C-MYC na seqüência metaplasia-displasia-adenocarcinoma no esôfago

Introdução e Objetivos: O esôfago de Barrett (BE) desenvolve-se como conseqüência de uma agressão acentuada sobre a mucosa esofágica causada pelo refluxo gastresofágico crônico. É uma lesão precursora e exerce papel importante no desenvolvimento do adenocarcinoma esofágico (ACE). Inúmeras alterações genéticas estão presentes ao longo da transformação tumoral de uma célula, sendo o c-Myc um dos principais genes envolvidos na carcinogênese humana. O objetivo do presente estudo foi determinar a expressão do c-myc em pacientes com EB e com adenocarcinoma esofágico, e avaliar esta prevalência relacionada com a seqüência metaplasia-displasia-adenocarcinoma. Métodos: A expressão da proteína do C-myc foi determinada através da análise imunohistoquímica em quatro grupos diferentes: 31 pacientes com tecido normal, 43 pacientes com EB sem displasia, 11 pacientes com displasia em EB e 37 pacientes com o adenocarcinoma esofágico. O material foi obtido de peças de biópsias ou de ressecção cirúrgica de pacientes atendidos pelo Grupo de Cirurgia de Esôfago, Estômago e Intestino Delgado (GCEEID) do Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre (HCPA) no período de janeiro 1998 a fevereiro 2004. Dados demográficos e endoscópicos (sexo, idade, raça, tamanho hiatal da hérnia e extensão do epitélio colunar esofágico), e as características morfológicas e histopatológicas tumorais (invasão tumoral, comprometimento linfonodal, e diferenciação histológica do tumor) foram analisados. A expressão de c-Myc foi avaliada usando o sistema de escore de imunorreatividade (Immunoreactive Scoring System – ISS). Resultados: Expressão aumentada do c-myc foi encontrada em apenas 9,7% das amostras de epitélio normal, em 37,2% dos pacientes com EB, em 45,5% dos pacientes com displasia e em 73% dos pacientes com adenocarcinoma, com diferença estatística significativa entre os grupos. Nenhuma associação foi identificada quando a expressão do c-Myc foi comparada as características morfológicas e histológicas do tumor ou aos dados endoscópicos. Entretanto, uma correlação linear da expressão do c-myc ao longo da seqüência metaplasia-displasia-adenocarcinoma foi observada. Conclusão: O estudo demonstrou um aumento significativo da expressão do c-Myc no EB, na displasia, e no adenocarcinoma em relação aos controles, bem como uma progressão linear da positividade deste gene ao longo desta seqüência. Estes resultados apontam para um papel importante deste marcador no desenvolvimento do ACE a partir do EB. Esta expressão aumentada do c-Myc em pacientes com EB poderá ajudar a identificar pacientes com risco elevado para o desenvolvimento de adenocarcinoma, contribuindo para um diagnóstico precoce desta doença.

Avaliação das pressões respiratórias máximas em crianças e adolescentes da grande Natal: elaboração de uma equação preditiva

The human respiratory system was so designed that would allow efficient ventilation, regardless of variations in the external environment that may hinder the act of breathing, such an act involves dozens of variables, among them we find the respiratory depression, which is nothing more than respiratory muscle strength. The pressures are widely used in several cases: Neuro-muscular; evolution of pulmonary dysfunction and a predictor for discontinuation of mechanical ventilation. Therefore it was proposed to carry out evaluations of these respiratory pressures for children and adolescents aged 10 to 16 years and propose a predictive equation that involves the anthropometric variables age (A, years), body mass (BM, kilograms) and height (H, meters) with maximal respiratory pressures (maximum inspiratory and expiratory pressure). Evaluations were performed in this age group of students in public and private schools of the Grande Natal , measurements were performed using the analogue manometer, were children and adolescents and their parents gave informed consent. 517 samples were taken, and 250 for males (M), 255 for females (F) and 12 were excluded according to our exclusion criteria. The sample was subdivided into three age groups (10-11, 12-13 and 14 to 16 years old). It was found through the student s t test (p ≤ 0.05) for all variables studied, children and male adolescents had higher means than females, except for the MC. For the correlation between the variables found significant correlation (p <0.05) among all the variables when analyzed as pairs except between MIP and height for females. The development of predictive equations (for p ≤ 0.05) based on three types of strategies adopted were restricted to two association between anthropometric variables isolated, resulting in: for males: MIP = -32.29 + (-2.11*A) + (-0.52*BM), MIP = 9.99 + (-0.36*BM) + (-49.40*H); MEP = 18.54 + 3.53*A + 0, 42*BM, MEP = -33.37 + 2.78*A + 52.18* H, MEP = -17.39 + 0.33*BM + 55.04*H; and, for females we find: MEP = 24.32 + 2.59 * A + 0.24*BM

Qualidade de vida na perspectiva de idosos institucionalizados no Município de Natal - RN

A descriptive and exploratory Study, quantitative in nature, with the aim to assess the Quality of Life (QL) of the elderly leaving in a Long Residence Institution (LRI) according to their own perception. It was conducted in six Public Institutions of Long Residence for Seniors, in the municipality of Natal - RN, in the period of July to August 2007. The data was collected using two structured interview forms: the first, containing questions about socio-demographic aspects and the second - the WHOQUOL-OLD, prepared by the World Health Organization to assess elderly s quality of life. The reference population was 266 old persons, and a random sample, of 43, being 28 women and 15 men, who account for 30%. The results indicated there is a predominance of older women (65.1%) and the average age is 76.6 years; the predominant religion is the Catholic - 44.2% and, 32.6% are unmarried without children. As for schooling and precedence, 41.9% are illiterate and 67.4% come from the rural area. The time of residency in the institution goes between 1 to 5 years for 69.8% of the elderly, 37.2% of them residing in the institution for not having another option. Most elderly informed using medicines. 51.3% said they are taking anti-hypertensive. As for the other aspects of QL: sensory aspects, autonomy, past, present and future activities, social participation, death and dying and intimacy, the WHOQOL-OLD, showed an average total score of 52.9% (scale of 0 to 100), with a tendency to neutrality, denoting that the elderly, in this study, evaluated their QL as neither satisfactory or unsatisfactory. Of all the facets of the instrument of QL, the sensory facet secured the highest average scores (68,1%), showing that the elderly are "happy" in the situation in which they find themselves, not showing significant disabilities. The facet of autonomy, which refers to the independence and the ability to make decisions on their own life, received the lowest average scores (40.7%), showing the dissatisfaction of the elderly on this aspect. The evaluation of the elderly on other facets were: social participation (48.2%); activities past, present and future (44.6%) and intimacy (50.6%), all perceived as neither unsatisfactory or satisfactory. On the item death and dying, the elderly people declared themselves satisfied, with average score of 65.5%. The analysis of the reliability of the WHOQOL-OLD by the Cronbach Alpha showed 0.57, considering the 24 items that cover the instrument, showing regular internal reliability of the instrument, in our reality. The result is probably due to differences between the regions south and east and the broader sociocultural diversity. We believe that the elderly in this study, tended to realize their QL as neutral, considering it as neither unsatisfactory or satisfactory, result likely related to the resignation with the destine, characterized, at the time, by the finitude of life, feeling very common among elderly, or perhaps, even for an accommodation, often accompanied by discouragement, present in the daily life of many of them