Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended.

A flexible Bayesian model for describing temporal variability of N2O emissions from an Australian pasture

Soil-based emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a well-known greenhouse gas, have been associated with changes in soil water-filled pore space (WFPS) and soil temperature in many previous studies. However, it is acknowledged that the environment-N2O relationship is complex and still relatively poorly unknown. In this article, we employed a Bayesian model selection approach (Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo) to develop a data-informed model of the relationship between daily N2O emissions and daily WFPS and soil temperature measurements between March 2007 and February 2009 from a soil under pasture in Queensland, Australia, taking seasonal factors and time-lagged effects into account. The model indicates a very strong relationship between a hybrid seasonal structure and daily N2O emission, with the latter substantially increased in summer. Given the other variables in the model, daily soil WFPS, lagged by a week, had a negative influence on daily N2O; there was evidence of a nonlinear positive relationship between daily soil WFPS and daily N2O emission; and daily soil temperature tended to have a linear positive relationship with daily N2O emission when daily soil temperature was above a threshold of approximately 19°C. We suggest that this flexible Bayesian modeling approach could facilitate greater understanding of the shape of the covariate-N2O flux relation and detection of effect thresholds in the natural temporal variation of environmental variables on N2O emission.

Security evaluation of Rakaposhi Stream Cipher

Rakaposhi is a synchronous stream cipher, which uses three main components: a non-linear feedback shift register (NLFSR), a dynamic linear feedback shift register (DLFSR) and a non-linear filtering function (NLF). NLFSR consists of 128 bits and is initialised by the secret key K. DLFSR holds 192 bits and is initialised by an initial vector (IV). NLF takes 8-bit inputs and returns a single output bit. The work identifies weaknesses and properties of the cipher. The main observation is that the initialisation procedure has the so-called sliding property. The property can be used to launch distinguishing and key recovery attacks. The distinguisher needs four observations of the related (K,IV) pairs. The key recovery algorithm allows to discover the secret key K after observing 29 pairs of (K,IV). Based on the proposed related-key attack, the number of related (K,IV) pairs is 2(128 + 192)/4 pairs. Further the cipher is studied when the registers enter short cycles. When NLFSR is set to all ones, then the cipher degenerates to a linear feedback shift register with a non-linear filter. Consequently, the initial state (and Secret Key and IV) can be recovered with complexity 263.87. If DLFSR is set to all zeros, then NLF reduces to a low non-linearity filter function. As the result, the cipher is insecure allowing the adversary to distinguish it from a random cipher after 217 observations of keystream bits. There is also the key recovery algorithm that allows to find the secret key with complexity 2 54.

Extensions of the cube attack based on low degree annihilators

At Crypto 2008, Shamir introduced a new algebraic attack called the cube attack, which allows us to solve black-box polynomials if we are able to tweak the inputs by varying an initialization vector. In a stream cipher setting where the filter function is known, we can extend it to the cube attack with annihilators: By applying the cube attack to Boolean functions for which we can find low-degree multiples (equivalently annihilators), the attack complexity can be improved. When the size of the filter function is smaller than the LFSR, we can improve the attack complexity further by considering a sliding window version of the cube attack with annihilators. Finally, we extend the cube attack to vectorial Boolean functions by finding implicit relations with low-degree polynomials.

Revisiting Polya's summation techniques using a spreadsheet : from addition tables to Bernoulli polynomials

Recurrence relations in mathematics form a very powerful and compact way of looking at a wide range of relationships. Traditionally, the concept of recurrence has often been a difficult one for the secondary teacher to convey to students. Closely related to the powerful proof technique of mathematical induction, recurrences are able to capture many relationships in formulas much simpler than so-called direct or closed formulas. In computer science, recursive coding often has a similar compactness property, and, perhaps not surprisingly, suffers from similar problems in the classroom as recurrences: the students often find both the basic concepts and practicalities elusive. Using models designed to illuminate the relevant principles for the students, we offer a range of examples which use the modern spreadsheet environment to powerfully illustrate the great expressive and computational power of recurrences.

Analytical study of implementation issues of NTRU

Nth-Dimensional Truncated Polynomial Ring (NTRU) is a lattice-based public-key cryptosystem that offers encryption and digital signature solutions. It was designed by Silverman, Hoffstein and Pipher. The NTRU cryptosystem was patented by NTRU Cryptosystems Inc. (which was later acquired by Security Innovations) and available as IEEE 1363.1 and X9.98 standards. NTRU is resistant to attacks based on Quantum computing, to which the standard RSA and ECC public-key cryptosystems are vulnerable to. In addition, NTRU has higher performance advantages over these cryptosystems. Considering this importance of NTRU, it is highly recommended to adopt NTRU as part of a cipher suite along with widely used cryptosystems for internet security protocols and applications. In this paper, we present our analytical study on the implementation of NTRU encryption scheme which serves as a guideline for security practitioners who are novice to lattice-based cryptography or even cryptography. In particular, we show some non-trivial issues that should be considered towards a secure and efficient NTRU implementation.

A Doubly curved Quadrilateral finite-element for the analysis of laminated anisotropic thin shells of revoution

The details of development of the stiffness matrix for a doubly curved quadrilateral element suited for static and dynamic analysis of laminated anisotropic thin shells of revolution are reported. Expressing the assumed displacement state over the middle surface of the shell as products of one-dimensional first order Hermite polynomials, it is possible to ensure that the displacement state for the assembled set of such elements, is geometrically admissible. Monotonic convergence of total potential energy is therefore possible as the modelling is successively refined. Systematic evaluation of performance of the element is conducted, considering various examples for which analytical or other solutions are available.

Analysis Of Curved Laminated Beams Of Bimodulus Composite-Materials

Composite materials exhibiting different moduli in tension and in compression, commonly called as bimodular composites are being used in many engineering fields. A finite element analysis is carried out for small deflection static behavior of laminated curved beams of bi modulus materials for both solid and hollow circular cross-sections using an iterative procedure. The finite element has 16 d.o.f. and uses the displacement field in terms of first order Hermite in terpolation polynomials. The neutral surface, i.e. the locus of points having zero axial strain is found to vary drastically depending on the loading, lay up schemes and radius of curvature. As il lustrations, plots of the cross-sections of the ruled neutral-surface are presented for some of the investigated cases. Using this element a few problems of curved laminated beams of bimodulus materials are solved for both solid and hollow circular cross-sections.

Instability of laminated composite thin-walled open-section beams

Instability of thin-walled open-section laminated composite beams is studied using the finite element method. A two-noded, 8 df per node thin-walled open-section laminated composite beam finite element has been used. The displacements of the element reference axis are expressed in terms of one-dimensional first order Hermite interpolation polynomials, and line member assumptions are invoked in formulation of the elastic stiffness matrix and geometric stiffness matrix. The nonlinear expressions for the strains occurring in thin-walled open-section beams, when subjected to axial, flexural and torsional loads, are incorporated in a general instability analysis. Several problems for which continuum solutions (exact/approximate) are possible have been solved in order to evaluate the performance of finite element. Next its applicability is demonstrated by predicting the buckling loads for the following problems of laminated composites: (i) two layer (45°/−45°) composite Z section cantilever beam and (ii) three layer (0°/45°/0°) composite Z section cantilever beam.

Bending Of Circular Plate On Elastic-Foundation

The governing differential equation of linear, elastic, thin, circular plate of uniform thickness, subjected to uniformly distributed load and resting on Winkler-Pasternak type foundation is solved using ``Chebyshev Polynomials''. Analysis is carried out using Lenczos' technique, both for simply supported and clamped plates. Numerical results thus obtained by perturbing the differential equation for plates without foundation are compared and are found to be in good agreement with the available results. The effect of foundation on central deflection of the plate is shown in the form of graphs.

Approximate closed-form solutions of realistic true proportional navigation guidance using the Adomian decomposition method

Approximate closed-form solutions of the non-linear relative equations of motion of an interceptor pursuing a target under the realistic true proportional navigation (RTPN) guidance law are derived using the Adomian decomposition method in this article. In the literature, no study has been reported on derivation of explicit time-series solutions in closed form of the nonlinear dynamic engagement equations under the RTPN guidance. The Adomian method provides an analytical approximation, requiring no linearization or direct integration of the non-linear terms. The complete derivation of the Adomian polynomials for the analysis of the dynamics of engagement under RTPN guidance is presented for deterministic ideal case, and non-ideal dynamics in the loop that comprises autopilot and actuator dynamics and target manoeuvre, as well as, for a stochastic case. Numerical results illustrate the applicability of the method.

Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

Finite element analysis of laminated anisotropic thin-walled open-section beams

A finite element analysis of thin-walled open-section laminated anisotropic beams is presented herein. A two-noded, 8 degrees of freedom per node thin-walled open-section laminated anisotropic beam finite element has been developed and used. The displacements of the element reference axes are expressed in terms of one-dimensional first order Hermite interpolation polynomials and line member assumptions are invoked in the formulation of the stiffness matrix. The problems of: 1. (a) an isotropic material Z section straight cantilever beam, and 2. (b) a single-layer (0°) composite Z section straight cantilever beam, for which continuum solutions (exact/approximate) are possible, have been solved in order to evaluate the performance of the finite element. Its applicability has been shown by solving the following problems: 3. (c) a two-layer (45°/−45°) composite Z section straight cantilever beam, 4. (d) a three-layer (0°/45°/0°) composite Z section straight cantilever beam.

A dual-slope analogue-to-digital converter for generating polynomials

A new digital polynomial generator using the principle of dual-slope analogue-to-digital conversion is proposed. Techniques for realizing a wide range of integer as well as fractional coefficients to obtain the desired polynomial have been discussed. The suitability of realizing the proposed polynomial generator in integrated circuit form is also indicated.

Application of partition method to vibration problems of plates

The “partition method” or “sub-domain method” consists of expressing the solution of a governing differential equation, partial or ordinary, in terms of functions which satisfy the boundary conditions and setting to zero the error in the differential equation integrated over each of the sub-domains into which the given domain is partitioned. In this paper, the use of this method in eigenvalue problems with particular reference to vibration of plates is investigated. The deflection of the plate is expressed in terms of polynomials satisfying the boundary conditions completely. Setting the integrated error in each of the subdomains to zero results in a set of simultaneous, linear, homogeneous, algebraic equations in the undetermined coefficients of the deflection series. The algebraic eigenvalue problem is then solved for eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Convergence is examined in a few typical cases and is found to be satisfactory. The results obtained are compared with existing results based on other methods and are found to be in very good agreement.