A method for Estimating the Degree of Uncertainty With Respect to Life Cycle Assessment During Design

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to estimate a product's environmental impact. Using LCA during the earlier stages of design may produce erroneous results since information available on the product's lifecycle is typically incomplete at these stages. The resulting uncertainty must be accounted for in the decision-making process. This paper proposes a method for estimating the environmental impact of a product's life cycle and the associated degree of uncertainty of that impact using information generated during the design process. Total impact is estimated based on aggregation of individual product life cycle processes impacts. Uncertainty estimation is based on assessing the mismatch between the information required and the information available about the product life cycle in each uncertainty category, as well as their integration. The method is evaluated using pre-defined scenarios with varying uncertainty. DOI: 10.1115/1.4002163]

Direct stability evaluation of power systems with detailed generator models using structure-preserving energy functions

Energy-based direct methods for transient stability analysis are potentially useful both as offline tools for planning purposes as well as for online security assessment. In this paper, a novel structure-preserving energy function (SPEF) is developed using the philosophy of structure-preserving model for the system and detailed generator model including flux decay, transient saliency, automatic voltage regulator (AVR), exciter and damper winding. A simpler and yet general expression for the SPEF is also derived which can simplify the computation of the energy function. The system equations and the energy function are derived using the centre-of-inertia (COI) formulation and the system loads are modelled as arbitrary functions of the respective bus voltages. Application of the proposed SPEF to transient stability evaluation of power systems is illustrated with numerical examples.

Dynamic security assessment of power systems using structure-preserving energy functions

An application of direct methods to dynamic security assessment of power systems using structure-preserving energy functions (SPEF) is presented. The transient energy margin (TEM) is used as an index for checking the stability of the system as well as ranking the contigencies based on their severity. The computation of the TEM requires the evaluation of the critical energy and the energy at fault clearing. Usually this is done by simulating the faulted trajectory, which is time-consuming. In this paper, a new algorithm which eliminates the faulted trajectory estimation is presented to calculate the TEM. The system equations and the SPEF are developed using the centre-of-inertia (COI) formulation and the loads are modelled as arbitrary functions of the respective bus voltages. The critical energy is evaluated using the potential energy boundary surface (PEBS) method. The method is illustrated by considering two realistic power system examples.

On the Fekete-Szego problem for concave univalent functions

We consider the Fekete-Szego problem with real parameter lambda for the class Co(alpha) of concave univalent functions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aspiration-based utility functions in a planning model for timber flow management.

The study presents a theory of utility models based on aspiration levels, as well as the application of this theory to the planning of timber flow economics. The first part of the study comprises a derivation of the utility-theoretic basis for the application of aspiration levels. Two basic models are dealt with: the additive and the multiplicative. Applied here solely for partial utility functions, aspiration and reservation levels are interpreted as defining piecewisely linear functions. The standpoint of the choices of the decision-maker is emphasized by the use of indifference curves. The second part of the study introduces a model for the management of timber flows. The model is based on the assumption that the decision-maker is willing to specify a shape of income flow which is different from that of the capital-theoretic optimum. The utility model comprises four aspiration-based compound utility functions. The theory and the flow model are tested numerically by computations covering three forest holdings. The results show that the additive model is sensitive even to slight changes in relative importances and aspiration levels. This applies particularly to nearly linear production possibility boundaries of monetary variables. The multiplicative model, on the other hand, is stable because it generates strictly convex indifference curves. Due to a higher marginal rate of substitution, the multiplicative model implies a stronger dependence on forest management than the additive function. For income trajectory optimization, a method utilizing an income trajectory index is more efficient than one based on the use of aspiration levels per management period. Smooth trajectories can be attained by squaring the deviations of the feasible trajectories from the desired one.

Empirical torsional potential functions from protein structure data. Phi- and psi-potentials for non-glycyl amino acid residues.

The torsional potential functions Vt(phi) and Vt(psi) around single bonds N--C alpha and C alpha--C, which can be used in conformational studies of oligopeptides, polypeptides and proteins, have been derived, using crystal structure data of 22 globular proteins, fitting the observed distribution in the (phi, psi)-plane with the value of Vtot(phi, psi), using the Boltzmann distribution. The averaged torsional potential functions, obtained from various amino acid residues in L-configuration, are Vt(phi) = 1.0 cos (phi + 60 degrees); Vt(psi) = 0.5 cos (psi + 60 degrees) - 1.0 cos (2 psi + 30 degrees) - 0.5 cos (3 psi + 30 degrees). The dipeptide energy maps Vtot(phi, psi) obtained using these functions, instead of the normally accepted torsional functions, were found to explain various observations, such as the absence of the left-handed alpha helix and the C7 conformation, and the relatively high density of points near the line psi = 0 degrees. These functions derived from observational data on protein structures, will, it is hoped, explain various previously unexplained facts in polypeptide conformation.

Estimation of variables at ungaged locations by empirical orthogonal functions

A technique based on empirical orthogonal functions is used to estimate hydrologic time-series variables at ungaged locations. The technique is applied to estimate daily and monthly rainfall, temperature and runoff values. The accuracy of the method is tested by application to locations where data are available. The second-order characteristics of the estimated data are compared with those of the observed data. The results indicate that the method is quick and accurate.

Exploring glueball wave functions on the lattice

We calculate the string tension and 0++ and 2++ glueball masses in pure gauge QCD using an improved lattice action. We compare various smearing methods, and find that the best glueball signal is obtained using smeared Wilson loops of a size of about 0.5 fm. Our results for mass ratios m0++/√σ=3.5(3) and m2++/m0++=1.6(2) are consistent with those computed with the simple plaquette action.

Structure and representation of correlation functions and the density matrix for a statistical wave field in optics

A systematic structure analysis of the correlation functions of statistical quantum optics is carried out. From a suitably defined auxiliary two‐point function we are able to identify the excited modes in the wave field. The relative simplicity of the higher order correlation functions emerge as a byproduct and the conditions under which these are made pure are derived. These results depend in a crucial manner on the notion of coherence indices and of unimodular coherence indices. A new class of approximate expressions for the density operator of a statistical wave field is worked out based on discrete characteristic sets. These are even more economical than the diagonal coherent state representations. An appreciation of the subtleties of quantum theory obtains. Certain implications for the physics of light beams are cited.

Functions of human papillomavirus E5 oncogene in epithelial cells and in the onset of cervical cancer

Human papillomaviruses (HPVs) are the causal agents of cervical cancer, which is the second most common cancer among women worldwide. Cellular transformation and carcinogenesis depend on the activities of viral E5, E6 and E7 proteins. Alterations in cell-cell contacts and in communication between epithelial cells take place during cervical carcinogenesis, leading to changes in cell morphology, increased cell motility and finally invasion. The aim of this thesis was to study genome-wide effects of the HPV type 16 (HPV-16) E5 protein on the expression of host cell messenger RNAs (mRNAs) and microRNAs by applying microarray technology. The results showed that the HPV-16 E5 protein alters several cellular pathways involved in cellular adhesion, motility and proliferation as well as in the extracellular matrix. The E5 protein was observed to enhance wound healing of epithelial cell monolayers by increasing cell motility in vivo. HPV-16 E5-induced alterations in the expression of cellular microRNAs and their target genes seem to favour increased proliferation and tumorigenesis. E5 was also shown to affect the expression of adherens junction proteins in HaCaT epithelial keratinocytes. In addition, a study of a membrane cytoskeletal cross-linker protein, ezrin, revealed that when activated, it localizes to adherens junctions. The results suggest that ezrin distribution to forming adherens junctions is due to Rac1 activity in epithelial cells. These studies reveal for the first time the holistic effects of HPV-16 E5 protein in promoting precancerous events in epithelial cells. The results contribute to identifyinging novel markers for cervical precancerous stages and to predicting disease behaviour.

Estimation of soil hydraulic properties and their uncertainty: comparison between laboratory and field experiment

Often the soil hydraulic parameters are obtained by the inversion of measured data (e.g. soil moisture, pressure head, and cumulative infiltration, etc.). However, the inverse problem in unsaturated zone is ill-posed due to various reasons, and hence the parameters become non-unique. The presence of multiple soil layers brings the additional complexities in the inverse modelling. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimate (GLUE) is a useful approach to estimate the parameters and their uncertainty when dealing with soil moisture dynamics which is a highly non-linear problem. Because the estimated parameters depend on the modelling scale, inverse modelling carried out on laboratory data and field data may provide independent estimates. The objective of this paper is to compare the parameters and their uncertainty estimated through experiments in the laboratory and in the field and to assess which of the soil hydraulic parameters are independent of the experiment. The first two layers in the field site are characterized by Loamy sand and Loamy. The mean soil moisture and pressure head at three depths are measured with an interval of half hour for a period of 1 week using the evaporation method for the laboratory experiment, whereas soil moisture at three different depths (60, 110, and 200 cm) is measured with an interval of 1 h for 2 years for the field experiment. A one-dimensional soil moisture model on the basis of the finite difference method was used. The calibration and validation are approximately for 1 year each. The model performance was found to be good with root mean square error (RMSE) varying from 2 to 4 cm(3) cm(-3). It is found from the two experiments that mean and uncertainty in the saturated soil moisture (theta(s)) and shape parameter (n) of van Genuchten equations are similar for both the soil types. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Empirical torsional potential functions from protiesn structure DATA Phi- and Psi-Potentials for Non-glycyl Amino Acid Residues

The torsional potential functions Vt(φ) and Vt(ψ) around single bonds N–Cα and Cα-C, which can be used in conformational studies of oligopeptides, polypeptides and proteins, have been derived, using crystal structure data of 22 globular proteins, fitting the observed distribution in the (φ, ψ)-plane with the value of Vtot(φ, ψ), using the Boltzmann distribution. The averaged torsional potential functions, obtained from various amino acid residues in l-configuration, are Vt(φ) = – 1.0 cos (φ + 60°); Vt(ψ) = – 0.5 cos (ψ + 60°) – 1.0 cos (2ψ + 30°) – 0.5 cos (3ψ + 30°). The dipeptide energy maps Vtot(φ, ψ) obtained using these functions, instead of the normally accepted torsional functions, were found to explain various observations, such as the absence of the left-handed alpha helix and the C7 conformation, and the relatively high density of points near the line ψ = 0°. These functions, derived from observational data on protein structures, will, it is hoped, explain various previously unexplained facts in polypeptide conformation.

On a Ratio of Functions of Exponential Random Variables and Some Applications

Consider L independent and identically distributed exponential random variables (r.vs) X-1, X-2 ,..., X-L and positive scalars b(1), b(2) ,..., b(L). In this letter, we present the probability density function (pdf), cumulative distribution function and the Laplace transform of the pdf of the composite r.v Z = (Sigma(L)(j=1) X-j)(2) / (Sigma(L)(j=1) b(j)X(j)). We show that the r.v Z appears in various communication systems such as i) maximal ratio combining of signals received over multiple channels with mismatched noise variances, ii)M-ary phase-shift keying with spatial diversity and imperfect channel estimation, and iii) coded multi-carrier code-division multiple access reception affected by an unknown narrow-band interference, and the statistics of the r.v Z derived here enable us to carry out the performance analysis of such systems in closed-form.