Investigation of the accuracy of historical irradiance products and interannual variability of solar irradiance using Met Office ground data

Met Office station data from 1980 to 2012 has been used to characterise the interannual variability of incident solar irradiance across the UK. The same data are used to evaluate four popular historical irradiance products to determine which are most suitable for use by the UK PV industry for site selection and system design. The study confirmed previous findings that interannual variability is typically 3–6% and weighted average probability of a particular percentage deviation from the mean at an average site in the UK was calculated. This weighted average showed that fewer than 2% of site-years could be expected to fall below 90% of the long-term site mean. The historical irradiance products were compared against Met Office station data from the input years of each product. This investigation has found that all products perform well. No products have a strong spatial trend. Meteonorm 7 is most conservative (MBE = −2.5%), CMSAF is most optimistic (MBE = +3.4%) and an average of all four products performs better than any one individual product (MBE = 0.3%)

Dynamic game soundtrack generation in response to a continously varying emotional trajectory

Dynamic soundtracking presents various practical and aesthetic challenges to composers working with games. This paper presents an implementation of a system addressing some of these challenges with an affectively-driven music generation algorithm based on a second order Markov-model. The system can respond in real-time to emotional trajectories derived from 2-dimensions of affect on the circumplex model (arousal and valence), which are mapped to five musical parameters. A transition matrix is employed to vary the generated output in continuous response to the affective state intended by the gameplay.

Motor imagery induced EEG patterns in spinal cord injury patients and their impact on Brain-Computer Interface accuracy

OBJECTIVE: Assimilating the diagnosis complete spinal cord injury (SCI) takes time and is not easy, as patients know that there is no 'cure' at the present time. Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) can facilitate daily living. However, inter-subject variability demands measurements with potential user groups and an understanding of how they differ to healthy users BCIs are more commonly tested with. Thus, a three-class motor imagery (MI) screening (left hand, right hand, feet) was performed with a group of 10 able-bodied and 16 complete spinal-cord-injured people (paraplegics, tetraplegics) with the objective of determining what differences were present between the user groups and how they would impact upon the ability of these user groups to interact with a BCI. APPROACH: Electrophysiological differences between patient groups and healthy users are measured in terms of sensorimotor rhythm deflections from baseline during MI, electroencephalogram microstate scalp maps and strengths of inter-channel phase synchronization. Additionally, using a common spatial pattern algorithm and a linear discriminant analysis classifier, the classification accuracy was calculated and compared between groups. MAIN RESULTS: It is seen that both patient groups (tetraplegic and paraplegic) have some significant differences in event-related desynchronization strengths, exhibit significant increases in synchronization and reach significantly lower accuracies (mean (M) = 66.1%) than the group of healthy subjects (M = 85.1%). SIGNIFICANCE: The results demonstrate significant differences in electrophysiological correlates of motor control between healthy individuals and those individuals who stand to benefit most from BCI technology (individuals with SCI). They highlight the difficulty in directly translating results from healthy subjects to participants with SCI and the challenges that, therefore, arise in providing BCIs to such individuals.

Video stimuli reduce object-directed imitation accuracy: a novel two-person motion-tracking approach

Imitation is an important form of social behavior, and research has aimed to discover and explain the neural and kinematic aspects of imitation. However, much of this research has featured single participants imitating in response to pre-recorded video stimuli. This is in spite of findings that show reduced neural activation to video vs. real life movement stimuli, particularly in the motor cortex. We investigated the degree to which video stimuli may affect the imitation process using a novel motion tracking paradigm with high spatial and temporal resolution. We recorded 14 positions on the hands, arms, and heads of two individuals in an imitation experiment. One individual freely moved within given parameters (moving balls across a series of pegs) and a second participant imitated. This task was performed with either simple (one ball) or complex (three balls) movement difficulty, and either face-to-face or via a live video projection. After an exploratory analysis, three dependent variables were chosen for examination: 3D grip position, joint angles in the arm, and grip aperture. A cross-correlation and multivariate analysis revealed that object-directed imitation task accuracy (as represented by grip position) was reduced in video compared to face-to-face feedback, and in complex compared to simple difficulty. This was most prevalent in the left-right and forward-back motions, relevant to the imitator sitting face-to-face with the actor or with a live projected video of the same actor. The results suggest that for tasks which require object-directed imitation, video stimuli may not be an ecologically valid way to present task materials. However, no similar effects were found in the joint angle and grip aperture variables, suggesting that there are limits to the influence of video stimuli on imitation. The implications of these results are discussed with regards to previous findings, and with suggestions for future experimentation.

Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts

Existing empirical evidence has frequently observed that professional forecasters are conservative and display herding behaviour. Whilst a large number of papers have considered equities as well as macroeconomic series, few have considered the accuracy of forecasts in alternative asset classes such as real estate. We consider the accuracy of forecasts for the UK commercial real estate market over the period 1999-2011. The results illustrate that forecasters display a tendency to under-estimate growth rates during strong market conditions and over-estimate when the market is performing poorly. This conservatism not only results in smoothed estimates but also implies that forecasters display herding behaviour. There is also a marked difference in the relative accuracy of capital and total returns versus rental figures. Whilst rental growth forecasts are relatively accurate, considerable inaccuracy is observed with respect to capital value and total returns.

The accuracy of HADS and GHQ-12 in detecting psychiatric morbidity in breast cancer patients

Objective: Psychological problems should be identified in breast cancer patients proactively if doctors and nurses are to help them cope with the challenges imposed by their illness. Screening is one possible way to identify emotional problems proactively. Self-report questionnaires can be useful alternatives to carrying out psychiatric interviews during screening, because interviewing a large number of patients can be impractical due to limited resources. Two such measures are the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the General Health Questionnaire-12 (GHQ-12). Method: The present study aimed to compare the performance of the GHQ-12, and the HADS Unitary Scale and its subscales to that of the Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia (SADS) in identifying patients with affective disorders, including DSM major depression and generalized anxiety disorder. The sample consisted of 296 female breast cancer patients who underwent surgery for breast cancer a year previously. Results: A small number of patients (11%) were identified as having DSM major depression or generalized anxiety disorder based on SADS score. The findings indicate that the optimal thresholds in detecting generalized anxiety disorder and DSM major depression with the HADS anxiety and depression subscales were ≥ 8 and ≥ 7, with 93.3% and 77.3% sensitivity, respectively, and 77.9% and 87.1% specificity, respectively. They also had a 21% and 36% positive predictive value, respectively. Using the HADS Unitary Scale the optimal threshold for detecting affective disorders was ≥ 12, with 88.9% sensitivity, 80.7% specificity, and a 35% positive predictive value. In detecting affective disorders, the optimal threshold on the GHQ-12 was ≥ 2, with 77.8% sensitivity and 70.2% specificity. This scale also had a 24% positive predictive value. In detecting generalized anxiety disorder and DSM major depression, the optimal thresholds on the GHQ-12 were ≥ 2 and ≥ 4 with 73.3% and 77.3% sensitivity, respectively, and 67.5% and 82% specificity, respectively. The scale also had 12% and 29% positive predictive values, respectively. Conclusion: The HADS Unitary Scale and its subscales were effective in identifying affective disorders. They can be used as screening measures in breast cancer patients. The GHQ-12 was less accurate in detecting affective disorders than the HADS, but it can also be used as a screening instrument to detect affective disorders, generalized anxiety disorder, and DSM major depression.

Multicamera trajectory analysis for semantic behaviour characterisation

In this paper we propose an innovative approach for behaviour recognition, from a multicamera environment, based on translating video activity into semantics. First, we fuse tracks from individual cameras through clustering employing soft computing techniques. Then, we introduce a higher-level module able to translate fused tracks into semantic information. With our proposed approach, we address the challenge set in PETS 2014 on recognising behaviours of interest around a parked vehicle, namely the abnormal behaviour of someone walking around the vehicle.

Assessing the performance of dynamical trajectory estimates

Estimating trajectories and parameters of dynamical systems from observations is a problem frequently encountered in various branches of science; geophysicists for example refer to this problem as data assimilation. Unlike as in estimation problems with exchangeable observations, in data assimilation the observations cannot easily be divided into separate sets for estimation and validation; this creates serious problems, since simply using the same observations for estimation and validation might result in overly optimistic performance assessments. To circumvent this problem, a result is presented which allows us to estimate this optimism, thus allowing for a more realistic performance assessment in data assimilation. The presented approach becomes particularly simple for data assimilation methods employing a linear error feedback (such as synchronization schemes, nudging, incremental 3DVAR and 4DVar, and various Kalman filter approaches). Numerical examples considering a high gain observer confirm the theory.

Improving power and accuracy of genome-wide association studies via a multi-locus mixed linear model methodology

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been widely used in genetic dissection of complex traits. However, common methods are all based on a fixed-SNP-effect mixed linear model (MLM) and single marker analysis, such as efficient mixed model analysis (EMMA). These methods require Bonferroni correction for multiple tests, which often is too conservative when the number of markers is extremely large. To address this concern, we proposed a random-SNP-effect MLM (RMLM) and a multi-locus RMLM (MRMLM) for GWAS. The RMLM simply treats the SNP-effect as random, but it allows a modified Bonferroni correction to be used to calculate the threshold p value for significance tests. The MRMLM is a multi-locus model including markers selected from the RMLM method with a less stringent selection criterion. Due to the multi-locus nature, no multiple test correction is needed. Simulation studies show that the MRMLM is more powerful in QTN detection and more accurate in QTN effect estimation than the RMLM, which in turn is more powerful and accurate than the EMMA. To demonstrate the new methods, we analyzed six flowering time related traits in Arabidopsis thaliana and detected more genes than previous reported using the EMMA. Therefore, the MRMLM provides an alternative for multi-locus GWAS.

A method of evaluating the accuracy of human body thermoregulation models

Human Body Thermoregulation Models have been widely used in the field of human physiology or thermal comfort studies. However there are few studies on the evaluation method for these models. This paper summarises the existing evaluation methods and critically analyses the flaws. Based on that, a method for the evaluating the accuracy of the Human Body Thermoregulation models is proposed. The new evaluation method contributes to the development of Human Body Thermoregulation models and validates their accuracy both statistically and empirically. The accuracy of different models can be compared by the new method. Furthermore, the new method is not only suitable for the evaluation of Human Body Thermoregulation Models, but also can be theoretically applied to the evaluation of the accuracy of the population-based models in other research fields.

An approximate dynamic programming approach for improving accuracy of lossy data compression by Bloom filters

Bloom filters are a data structure for storing data in a compressed form. They offer excellent space and time efficiency at the cost of some loss of accuracy (so-called lossy compression). This work presents a yes-no Bloom filter, which as a data structure consisting of two parts: the yes-filter which is a standard Bloom filter and the no-filter which is another Bloom filter whose purpose is to represent those objects that were recognised incorrectly by the yes-filter (that is, to recognise the false positives of the yes-filter). By querying the no-filter after an object has been recognised by the yes-filter, we get a chance of rejecting it, which improves the accuracy of data recognition in comparison with the standard Bloom filter of the same total length. A further increase in accuracy is possible if one chooses objects to include in the no-filter so that the no-filter recognises as many as possible false positives but no true positives, thus producing the most accurate yes-no Bloom filter among all yes-no Bloom filters. This paper studies how optimization techniques can be used to maximize the number of false positives recognised by the no-filter, with the constraint being that it should recognise no true positives. To achieve this aim, an Integer Linear Program (ILP) is proposed for the optimal selection of false positives. In practice the problem size is normally large leading to intractable optimal solution. Considering the similarity of the ILP with the Multidimensional Knapsack Problem, an Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP) model is developed making use of a reduced ILP for the value function approximation. Numerical results show the ADP model works best comparing with a number of heuristics as well as the CPLEX built-in solver (B&B), and this is what can be recommended for use in yes-no Bloom filters. In a wider context of the study of lossy compression algorithms, our researchis an example showing how the arsenal of optimization methods can be applied to improving the accuracy of compressed data.

Accuracy of Periapical Radiography and Cone-Beam Computed Tomography Scans in Diagnosing Apical Periodontitis Using Histopathological Findings as a Gold Standard

Introduction: The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of two imaging methods in diagnosing apical periodontitis (AP) using histopathological findings as a gold standard. Methods: The periapex of 83 treated or untreated roots of dogs` teeth was examined using periapical radiography (PR), cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans, and histology. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and accuracy of PR and CBCT diagnosis were calculated. Results: PR detected AP in 71% of roots, a CBCT scan detected AP in 84%, and AP was histologically diagnosed in 93% (p = 0.001). Overall, sensitivity was 0.77 and 0.91 for PR and CBCT, respectively. Specificity was 1 for both. Negative predictive value was 0.25 and 0.46 for PR and CBCT, respectively. Positive predictive value was 1 for both. Diagnostic accuracy (true positives + true negatives) was 0.78 and 0.92 for PR and CBCT (p = 0.028), respectively. Conclusion: A CBCT scan was more sensitive in detecting AP compared with PR, which was more likely to miss AP when it was still present. (J Endod 2009;35:1009-1012)

Ex Vivo Accuracy of an Apex Locator Using Digital Signal Processing in Primary Teeth

The purpose of this study was to evaluate ex vivo the accuracy an electronic apex locator during root canal length determination in primary molars. Methods: One calibrated examiner determined the root canal length in 15 primary molars (total=34 root canals) with different stages of root resorption. Root canal length was measured both visually, with the placement of a K-file 1 mm short of the apical foramen or the apical resorption bevel, and electronically using an electronic apex locator (Digital Signal Processing). Data were analyzed statistically using the intraclass correlation (ICC) test. Results: Comparing the actual and electronic root canal length measurements in the primary teeth showed a high correlation (ICC=0.95) Conclusions: The Digital Signal Processing apex locator is useful and accurate for apex foramen location during root canal length measurement in primary molars. (Pediatr Dent 200937:320-2) Received April 75, 2008 vertical bar Lost Revision August 21, 2008 vertical bar Revision Accepted August 22, 2008

Ex vivo evaluation of the accuracy of two electronic apex locators during root canal length determination in primary teeth

Aim To evaluate ex vivo the accuracy of two electronic apex locators during root canal length determination in primary incisor and molar teeth with different stages of physiological root resorption. Methodology One calibrated examiner determined the root canal length in 17 primary incisors and 16 primary molars (total of 57 root canals) with different stages of root resorption based on the actual canal length and using two electronic apex locators. Root canal length was measured both visually, with the placement of a K-file 1 mm short of the apical foramen or the apical resorption bevel, and electronically using two electronic apex locators (Root ZX II - J. Morita Corp. and Mini Apex Locator - SybronEndo) according to the manufacturers` instructions. Data were analysed statistically using the intraclass correlation (ICC) test. Results Comparison of the actual root canal length and the electronic root canal length measurements revealed high correlation (ICC = 0.99), regardless of the tooth type (single-rooted and multi-rooted teeth) or the presence/absence of physiological root resorption. Conclusions Root ZX II and Mini Apex Locator proved useful and accurate for apex foramen location during root canal length measurement in primary incisors and molars.

Accuracy of the iPex multi-frequency electronic apex locator in primary molars: an ex vivo study

P>Aim To evaluate ex vivo the accuracy of the iPex multi-frequency electronic apex locator (NSK Ltd, Tokyo, Japan) for working length determination in primary molar teeth. Methodology One calibrated examiner determined the working length in 20 primary molar teeth (total of 33 root canals). Working length was measured both visually, with the placement of a K-file 1 mm short of the apical foramen or the most coronal limit of root resorption, and electronically using the electronic apex locator iPex, according to the manufacturers` instructions. Data were analysed statistically using the intraclass correlation (ICC) test. Results Comparison of the actual and the electronic measurements revealed high correlation (ICC = 0.99) between the methods, regardless of the presence or absence of physiological root resorption. Conclusions In this laboratory study, the iPex accurately identified the apical foramen or the apical opening location for working length measurement in primary molar teeth.