MARECHIARA-phytoplankton long-term time-series (1984-2006) at the fixed coastal station in the Gulf of Naples, Southern Tyrrhenian Sea

The "MARECHIARA-phytoplankton" dataset contains phytoplankton data collected in the ongoing time-series at Stn MC ( 40°48.5' N, 14°15' E) in the Gulf of Naples. This dataset spans over the period 1984-2006 and contains data of phytoplankton species composition and abundance. Phytoplankton sampling was regularly conducted from January 1984 till July 1991 and in 1995-2006. Sampling was interrupted from August 1991 till January 1995. The sampling frequency was fortnightly till 1991 and weekly since 1995. Phytoplankton samples were collected at 0.5 m depth using Niskin bottles and immediately fixed with formaldehyde (0.8-1.6% final concentration) for species identification and counts.

Influence of denitrifiers abundance on N2O emissions in long term tillage system under a rainfed legume crop

Current studies about nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from legume crops have raised considerable doubt, observing a high variability between sites (0.03-7.09 kg N2O–N ha−1 y -1) [1]. This high variability has been associated to climate and soil conditions, legume species and soil management practices (e.g. conservation or conventional tillage). Conservation tillage (i.e. no tillage (NT) and minimum tillage (MT)) has spread during the last decades because promotes several positive effects (increase of soil organic content, reduction of soil erosion and enhancement of carbon (C) sequestration). However, these benefits could be partly counterbalanced by negative effects on the release of N2O emissions. Among processes responsible for N2O production and consumption in soils, denitrification plays an importantrole both in tilled and no-tilled ropping systems [2]. Recently, amplification of functional bacterial genes involved in denitrification is being used to examine denitrifiers abundance and evaluate their influence on N2O emissions. NirK and nirS are functional genes encoding the cytochrome cd1 and copper nitrite reductase, which is the key enzyme regulating the denitrification process.

Financial Sector Development and Integration in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean: Towards a long-term sustainable transition. MEDPRO Policy Paper No. 7, April 2013

This MEDPRO Policy Paper examines the trends and prospects in financial-sector development and integration in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries and concludes with an agenda for a long-term sustainable transition where finance turns to be a positive stimulus to long-term growth.

Evaluating trends in abundance of immature green turtles, Chelonia mydas, in the Greater Caribbean

Many long-lived marine species exhibit life history traits. that make them more vulnerable to overexploitation. Accurate population trend analysis is essential for development and assessment of management plans for these species. However, because many of these species disperse over large geographic areas, have life stages inaccessible to human surveyors, and/or undergo complex developmental migrations, data on trends in abundance are often available for only one stage of the population, usually breeding adults. The green turtle (Chelonia mydas) is one of these long-lived species for which population trends are based almost exclusively on either numbers of females that emerge to nest or numbers of nests deposited each year on geographically restricted beaches. In this study, we generated estimates of annual abundance for juvenile green turtles at two foraging grounds in the Bahamas based on long-term capture-mark-recapture (CMR) studies at Union Creek (24 years) and Conception Creek (13 years), using a two-stage approach. First, we estimated recapture probabilities from CMR data using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models in the software program MARK; second, we estimated annual abundance of green turtles. at both study sites using the recapture probabilities in a Horvitz-Thompson type estimation procedure. Green turtle abundance did not change significantly in Conception Creek, but, in Union Creek, green turtle abundance had successive phases of significant increase, significant decrease, and stability. These changes in abundance resulted from changes in immigration, not survival or emigration. The trends in abundance on the foraging grounds did not conform to the significantly increasing trend for the major nesting population at Tortuguero, Costa Rica. This disparity highlights the challenges of assessing population-wide trends of green turtles and other long-lived species. The best approach for monitoring population trends may be a combination of (1) extensive surveys to provide data for large-scale trends in relative population abundance, and (2) intensive surveys, using CMR techniques, to estimate absolute abundance and evaluate the demographic processes' driving the trends.

Reduced between-hospital variation in short term survival after acute myocardial infarction: the result of improved cardiac care?

Objectives: To re-examine interhospital variation in 30 day survival after acute myocardial infarction ( AMI) 10 years on to see whether the appointment of new cardiologists and their involvement in emergency care has improved outcome after AMI. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Acute hospitals in Scotland. Participants: 61 484 patients with a first AMI over two time periods: 1988 - 1991; and 1998 - 2001. Main outcome measures: 30 day survival. Results: Between 1988 and 1991, median 30 day survival was 79.2% ( interhospital range 72.1 - 85.1%). The difference between highest and lowest was 13.0 percentage points ( age and sex adjusted, 12.1 percentage points). Between 1998 and 2001, median survival rose to 81.6% ( and range decreased to 78.0 - 85.6%) with a difference of 7.6 ( adjusted 8.8) percentage points. Admission hospital was an independent predictor of outcome at 30 days during the two time periods ( p< 0.001). Over the period 1988 - 1991, the odds ratio for death ranged, between hospitals, from 0.71 ( 95% confidence interval ( CI) 0.58 to 0.88) to 1.50 ( 95% CI 1.19 to 1.89) and for the period 1998 - 2001 from 0.82 ( 95% CI 0.60 to 1.13) to 1.46 ( 95% CI 1.07 to 1.99). The adjusted risk of death was significantly higher than average in nine of 26 hospitals between 1988 and 1991 but in only two hospitals between 1998 and 2001. Conclusions: The average 30 day case fatality rate after admission with an AMI has fallen substantially over the past 10 years in Scotland. Between-hospital variation is also considerably less notable because of better survival in the previously poorly performing hospitals. This suggests that the greater involvement of cardiologists in the management of AMI has paid dividends.

Trends for in situ and invasive melanoma in Queensland, Australia, 1982-2002

Objectives Queensland, the north-eastern state of Australia, has the highest incidence of melanoma in the world. Control measures started earlier here than probably anywhere else in the world; early detection programmes started in the 1960s and primary prevention in the 1980s. Data from the population-based Queensland Cancer Registry therefore provide an internationally unique data source with which to assess trends for in situ and invasive melanomas and to consider the implications for early detection and primary prevention. Methods We used Poisson regression to estimate the annual percentage change in rates across 21 years of incidence data for in situ and invasive lesions, stratified by age and sex. Joinpoint analyses were used to assess whether there had been a statistically significant change in the trends. Results In situ melanomas increased by 10.4% (95% CI: 10.1%, 11.1%) per year among males and 8.4% (7.9%, 8.9%) per year among females. The incidence of invasive lesions also increased, but not as quickly; males 2.6% (2.4%, 2.8%), females 1.2% (0.9%, 1.5%). Valid data on thickness was only available for 1991 to 2002 and for this period thin-invasive lesions were increasing faster than thick-invasive lesions (for example, among males: thin 3.8%, thick 2.0%). We found some suggestive evidence of lower proportionate increase for the most recent years for both in-situ and invasive lesions, but this did not achieve statistical significance. Among people younger than 35 years, the incidence of invasive melanoma was stable and there was a suggestion of a birth cohort effect from about 1958. Mortality rates were stable across all ages, and there was a suggestion of decreasing rates among young women, although this did not achieve statistical significance. Conclusion Age-standardised incidence is continuing to increase and this, in combination with a shift to proportionately more in situ lesions, suggests that the stabilisation of mortality rates is due, in large part, to earlier detection. For primary prevention, after a substantial period of sustained effort in Queensland, there is some suggestive, but not definitive, evidence that progress is being made. Incidence rates are stabilising in those younger than 35 years and the proportionate increase for both in situ and invasive lesions appears to be lower for the most recent period compared with previous periods. However, even taking the most favourable view of these trends, primary prevention is unlikely to lead to decreases in the overall incidence rate of melanoma for at least another 20 years. Consequently, the challenge for primary prevention programmes will be to maintain momentum over the long term. If this can be achieved, the eventual public-health benefits are likely to be substantial.

Quantifying short-term dynamics of Parkinson's disease using self-reported symptom data from an internet social network

Background: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is an incurable neurological disease with approximately 0.3% prevalence. The hallmark symptom is gradual movement deterioration. Current scientific consensus about disease progression holds that symptoms will worsen smoothly over time unless treated. Accurate information about symptom dynamics is of critical importance to patients, caregivers, and the scientific community for the design of new treatments, clinical decision making, and individual disease management. Long-term studies characterize the typical time course of the disease as an early linear progression gradually reaching a plateau in later stages. However, symptom dynamics over durations of days to weeks remains unquantified. Currently, there is a scarcity of objective clinical information about symptom dynamics at intervals shorter than 3 months stretching over several years, but Internet-based patient self-report platforms may change this. Objective: To assess the clinical value of online self-reported PD symptom data recorded by users of the health-focused Internet social research platform PatientsLikeMe (PLM), in which patients quantify their symptoms on a regular basis on a subset of the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Ratings Scale (UPDRS). By analyzing this data, we aim for a scientific window on the nature of symptom dynamics for assessment intervals shorter than 3 months over durations of several years. Methods: Online self-reported data was validated against the gold standard Parkinson’s Disease Data and Organizing Center (PD-DOC) database, containing clinical symptom data at intervals greater than 3 months. The data were compared visually using quantile-quantile plots, and numerically using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. By using a simple piecewise linear trend estimation algorithm, the PLM data was smoothed to separate random fluctuations from continuous symptom dynamics. Subtracting the trends from the original data revealed random fluctuations in symptom severity. The average magnitude of fluctuations versus time since diagnosis was modeled by using a gamma generalized linear model. Results: Distributions of ages at diagnosis and UPDRS in the PLM and PD-DOC databases were broadly consistent. The PLM patients were systematically younger than the PD-DOC patients and showed increased symptom severity in the PD off state. The average fluctuation in symptoms (UPDRS Parts I and II) was 2.6 points at the time of diagnosis, rising to 5.9 points 16 years after diagnosis. This fluctuation exceeds the estimated minimal and moderate clinically important differences, respectively. Not all patients conformed to the current clinical picture of gradual, smooth changes: many patients had regimes where symptom severity varied in an unpredictable manner, or underwent large rapid changes in an otherwise more stable progression. Conclusions: This information about short-term PD symptom dynamics contributes new scientific understanding about the disease progression, currently very costly to obtain without self-administered Internet-based reporting. This understanding should have implications for the optimization of clinical trials into new treatments and for the choice of treatment decision timescales.

Creating lift versus building the base:current trends in marketing dynamics

Markets are dynamic by nature, and marketing efforts can be directed to stimulate, reduce, or to utilize these dynamics. The field of marketing dynamics aims at modeling the effects of marketing actions and policies on short-term performance (“lift”) and on long-term performance (“base”). One of the core questions within this field is: “How do marketing efforts affect outcome metrics such as revenues, profits, or shareholder value over time?” Developments in statistical modeling and new data sources allow marketing scientists to provide increasingly comprehensive answers to this question. We present an outlook on developments in modeling marketing dynamics and specify research directions.

Supply chain "mega-trends":current status and future trends

The supply chain management (SCM) concept has become embedded in the thinking of many organisations in recent years. Originally introduced by management consultants in the early 1980s, SCM has a strong focus on integration of processes across functions within firms, as well as between the organisations that comprise the wider extended enterprise. There is a significant body of research to support the notion that the consistent delivery of value to customers is predicated on higher levels of intra-firm and inter-firm integration. Putting the supply chain integration (SCI) concept into practice is critically dependent on the ability of firms to manage material, money and information flows in a holistic manner. It also depends on the way in which relationships between key supply chain actors are managed. This article explores the “mega-trends” that are evident across most sectors and which have a potentially significant impact on the ability of organisations to put SCM theory into practice. The late Don Bowersox and his colleagues from Michigan State University introduced the idea of supply chain “mega-trends” over a decade ago in their widely cited article in the Journal of Business Logistics (Bowersox et al., 2000). This article explores the current status of these “mega-trends” in an Irish context based on research being undertaken at the National Institute for Transport and Logistics (NITL). It also identifies some key factors that are likely to impact upon progress in these key areas in the medium term.