Space-Time Smoothing Models for Surveillance and Complex Survey Data

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Are diagnosis specific outcome indicators based on administrative data useful in assessing quality of hospital care?

Background: Hospital performance reports based on administrative data should distinguish differences in quality of care between hospitals from case mix related variation and random error effects. A study was undertaken to determine which of 12 diagnosis-outcome indicators measured across all hospitals in one state had significant risk adjusted systematic ( or special cause) variation (SV) suggesting differences in quality of care. For those that did, we determined whether SV persists within hospital peer groups, whether indicator results correlate at the individual hospital level, and how many adverse outcomes would be avoided if all hospitals achieved indicator values equal to the best performing 20% of hospitals. Methods: All patients admitted during a 12 month period to 180 acute care hospitals in Queensland, Australia with heart failure (n = 5745), acute myocardial infarction ( AMI) ( n = 3427), or stroke ( n = 2955) were entered into the study. Outcomes comprised in-hospital deaths, long hospital stays, and 30 day readmissions. Regression models produced standardised, risk adjusted diagnosis specific outcome event ratios for each hospital. Systematic and random variation in ratio distributions for each indicator were then apportioned using hierarchical statistical models. Results: Only five of 12 (42%) diagnosis-outcome indicators showed significant SV across all hospitals ( long stays and same diagnosis readmissions for heart failure; in-hospital deaths and same diagnosis readmissions for AMI; and in-hospital deaths for stroke). Significant SV was only seen for two indicators within hospital peer groups ( same diagnosis readmissions for heart failure in tertiary hospitals and inhospital mortality for AMI in community hospitals). Only two pairs of indicators showed significant correlation. If all hospitals emulated the best performers, at least 20% of AMI and stroke deaths, heart failure long stays, and heart failure and AMI readmissions could be avoided. Conclusions: Diagnosis-outcome indicators based on administrative data require validation as markers of significant risk adjusted SV. Validated indicators allow quantification of realisable outcome benefits if all hospitals achieved best performer levels. The overall level of quality of care within single institutions cannot be inferred from the results of one or a few indicators.

Quantitative justification for target concentration intervention - parameter variability and predictive performance using population pharmacokinetic models for aminoglycosides

Aims [1] To quantify the random and predictable components of variability for aminoglycoside clearance and volume of distribution [2] To investigate models for predicting aminoglycoside clearance in patients with low serum creatinine concentrations [3] To evaluate the predictive performance of initial dosing strategies for achieving an aminoglycoside target concentration. Methods Aminoglycoside demographic, dosing and concentration data were collected from 697 adult patients (>=20 years old) as part of standard clinical care using a target concentration intervention approach for dose individualization. It was assumed that aminoglycoside clearance had a renal and a nonrenal component, with the renal component being linearly related to predicted creatinine clearance. Results A two compartment pharmacokinetic model best described the aminoglycoside data. The addition of weight, age, sex and serum creatinine as covariates reduced the random component of between subject variability (BSVR) in clearance (CL) from 94% to 36% of population parameter variability (PPV). The final pharmacokinetic parameter estimates for the model with the best predictive performance were: CL, 4.7 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1); intercompartmental clearance (CLic), 1 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1); volume of central compartment (V-1), 19.5 l 70 kg(-1); volume of peripheral compartment (V-2) 11.2 l 70 kg(-1). Conclusions Using a fixed dose of aminoglycoside will achieve 35% of typical patients within 80-125% of a required dose. Covariate guided predictions increase this up to 61%. However, because we have shown that random within subject variability (WSVR) in clearance is less than safe and effective variability (SEV), target concentration intervention can potentially achieve safe and effective doses in 90% of patients.

A work domain analysis framework for modelling intensive care unit patients

Work domain analysis (WDA) has been applied to a range of complex work domains, but few WDAs have been undertaken in medical contexts. One pioneering effort suggested that clinical abstraction is not based on means-ends relations, whereas another effort downplayed the role of bio-regulatory mechanisms. In this paper it is argued that bio-regulatory mechanisms that govern physiological behaviour must be part of WDA models of patients as the systems at the core of intensive care units. Furthermore it is argued that because the inner functioning of patients is not completely known, clinical abstraction is based on hypothetico-deductive abstract reasoning. This paper presents an alternative modelling framework that conforms to the broader aspirations of WDA. A modified version of the viable systems model is used to represent the patient system as a nested dissipative structure while aspects of the recognition primed decision model are used to represent the information resources available to clinicians in ways that support lsquoif...thenrsquo conceptual relations. These two frameworks come together to form the recursive diagnostic framework, which may provide a more appropriate foundation for information display design in the intensive care unit.

Evaluation of 1-site and 5-site models of methane on its adsorption on graphite and in graphitic slit pores

In this paper, we evaluate the performance of the 1- and 5-site models of methane on the description of adsorption on graphite surfaces and in graphitic slit pores. These models have been known to perform well in the description of the fluid-phase behavior and vapor-liquid equilibria. Their performance in adsorption is evaluated in this work for nonporous graphitized thermal carbon black, and simulation results are compared with the experimental data of Avgul and Kiselev (Chemistry and Physics of Carbon; Dekker: New York, 1970; Vol. 6, p 1). On this nonporous surface, it is found that these models perform as well on isotherms at various temperatures as they do on the experimental isosteric heat for adsorption on a graphite surface. They are then tested for their performance in predicting the adsorption isotherms in graphitic slit pores, in which we would like to explore the effect of confinement on the molecule packing. Pore widths of 10 and 20 angstrom are chosen in this investigation, and we also study the effects of temperature by choosing 90.7, 113, and 273 K. The first two are for subcritical conditions, with 90.7 K being the triple point of methane and 113 K being its boiling point. The last temperature is chosen to represent the supercritical condition so that we can investigate the performance of these models at extremely high pressures. We have found that for the case of slit pores investigated in this paper, although the two models yield comparable pore densities (provided the accessible pore width is used in the calculation of pore density), the number of particles predicted by the I-site model is always greater than that predicted by the 5-site model, regardless of whether temperature is subcritical or supercritical. This is due to the packing effect in the confined space such that a methane molecule modeled as a spherical particle in the I-site model would pack better than the fused five-sphere model in the case of the 5-site model. Because the 5-site model better describes the liquid- and solid-phase behavior, we would argue that the packing density in small pores is better described with a more detailed 5-site model, and care should be exercised when using the 1-site model to study adsorption in small pores.

Determinants in the development of advanced nursing practice: a case study of primary-care settings in Hong Kong

Different factors have been shown to influence the development of models of advanced nursing practice (ANP) in primary-care settings. Although ANP is being developed in hospitals in Hong Kong, China, it remains undeveloped in primary care and little is known about the factors determining the development of such a model. The aims of the present study were to investigate the contribution of different models of nursing practice to the care provided in primary-care settings in Hong Kong, and to examine the determinants influencing the development of a model of ANP in such settings. A multiple case study design was selected using both qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection. Sampling methods reflected the population groups and stage of the case study. Sampling included a total population of 41 nurses from whom a secondary volunteer sample was drawn for face-to-face interviews. In each case study, a convenience sample of 70 patients were recruited, from whom 10 were selected purposively for a semi-structured telephone interview. An opportunistic sample of healthcare professionals was also selected. The within-case and cross-case analysis demonstrated four major determinants influencing the development of ANP: (1) current models of nursing practice; (2) the use of skills mix; (3) the perceived contribution of ANP to patient care; and (4) patients' expectations of care. The level of autonomy of individual nurses was considered particularly important. These determinants were used to develop a model of ANP for a primary-care setting. In conclusion, although the findings highlight the complexity determining the development and implementation of ANP in primary care, the proposed model suggests that definitions of advanced practice are appropriate to a range of practice models and cultural settings. However, the findings highlight the importance of assessing the effectiveness of such models in terms of cost and long-term patient outcomes.

Community-based programs to promote care seat restraints in children 0-16 years - A systematic review

Study Objective: Community-based models for injury prevention have become an accepted part of the overall injury control strategy. This systematic review of the scientific literature examines the evidence for their effectiveness in reducing injury due to inadequate car seat restraint use in children 0-16 years of age. Methods: A comprehensive search of the literature was performed using the following study selection criteria: community-based intervention study: target population was children aged 0-16 years of age; outcome measure was either injury rates due to motor vehicle crashes or observed changes in child restraint use; and use of community control or historical control in the study design. Quality assessment and data abstraction was guided by a standardized procedure and performed independently by two authors. Data synthesis was in tabular and text form with meta-analysis not being possible due to the discrepancy in methods and measures between the studies. Results: This review found eight studies, that met all the inclusion criteria. In the studies that measured injury outcomes, significant reductions in risk of motor vehicle occupant injury (33-55%) were reported in the study communities. For those studies reporting observed car seat restraint use the community-based programs were successful in increasing toddler restraint use in 1-5 year aged children by up to 11%; child booster seat use in 4-8 year aged children by up to 13%; rear restraint use in children aged 0-15 years by 8%; a 50% increase in restraint use in pre-school aged children in a high-risk community; and a 44% increase in children aged 5-11 years. Conclusion: While this review highlights that there is some evidence to support the effectiveness of community-based programs to promote car restraint use and/or motor vehicle occupant injury, limitations in the evaluation methodologies of the studies requires the results to be interpreted with caution. There is clearly a need for further high quality program evaluation research to develop an evidence base. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Controlled trial of multidisciplinary care teams for acutely ill medical inpatients: enhanced multidisciplinary care

Background: Acute hospital general medicine services care for ageing complex patients, using the skills of a range of health-care providers. Evidence suggests that comprehensive early assessment and discharge planning may improve efficiency and outcomes of care in older medical patients. Aim: To enhance assessment, communication, care and discharge planning by restructuring consistent, patient-centred multidisciplinary teams in a general medicine service. Methods: Prospective controlled trial enrolling 1538 consecutive medical inpatients. Intervention units with additional allied health staff formed consistent multidisciplinary teams aligned with inpatient admitting units rather than wards; implemented improved communication processes for early information collection and sharing between disciplines; and specified shared explicit discharge goals. Control units continued traditional, referral-based multidisciplinary models with existing staffing levels. Results: Access to allied health services was significantly enhanced. There was a trend to reduced index length of stay in the intervention units (7.3 days vs 7.8 days in control units, P = 0.18), with no change in 6-month readmissions. in-hospital mortality was reduced from 6.4 to 3.9% (P = 0.03); less patients experienced functional decline in hospital (P = 0.04) and patients' ratings of health status improved (P = 0.02). Additional staffing costs were balanced by potential bed-day savings. Conclusion: This model of enhanced multidisciplinary inpatient care has provided sustainable efficiency gains for the hospital and improved patient outcomes.

A pragmatic 2 × 2 × 2 factorial cluster randomized controlled trial of educational outreach visiting and case conferencing in palliative care—methodology of the Palliative Care Trial [ISRCTN 81117481]

The demand for palliative care is increasing, yet there are few data on the best models of care nor well-validated interventions that translate current evidence into clinical practice. Supporting multidisciplinary patient-centered palliative care while successfully conducting a large clinical trial is a challenge. The Palliative Care Trial (PCT) is a pragmatic 2 x 2 x 2 factorial cluster randomized controlled trial that tests the ability of educational outreach visiting and case conferencing to improve patient-based outcomes such as performance status and pain intensity. Four hundred sixty-one consenting patients and their general practitioners (GPs) were randomized to the following: (1) GP educational outreach visiting versus usual care, (2) Structured patient and caregiver educational outreach visiting versus usual care and (3) A coordinated palliative care model of case conferencing versus the standard model of palliative care in Adelaide, South Australia (3:1 randomization). Main outcome measures included patient functional status over time, pain intensity, and resource utilization. Participants were followed longitudinally until death or November 30, 2004. The interventions are aimed at translating current evidence into clinical practice and there was particular attention in the trial's design to addressing common pitfalls for clinical studies in palliative care. Given the need for evidence about optimal interventions and service delivery models that improve the care of people with life-limiting illness, the results of this rigorous, high quality clinical trial will inform practice. Initial results are expected in mid 2005. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Family centred care: a review of qualitative studies

Aim. To review systematically qualitative studies, which were found during a literature search for a Cochrane systematic review of the use of family centred care in children's hospitals. Background. Family centred care has become a cornerstone of paediatric practice, however, its effectiveness is not known. No single definition exists, rather a list of elements that constitute family centred care. However, it is recognized to involve the parents in care planning for a child in health services. A new definition is presented here. Methods. The papers were found in wide range of databases, by hand searching and by contacting the authors where necessary, using terms given in detail in the protocol in the Cochrane Library, in 2004. Qualitative studies could not be used for statistical analysis, but are still important to the review and so are described separately in this paper. Results. Negotiation between staff and families, perceptions held by both parents and staff roles influenced the delivery of family centred care. A sub-theme of cost of family centred care to families and staffs was discovered and this included both financial and emotional costs. Conclusion. Further research is needed to generate evidence about family centred care in situations arising from modern models of care in which family centred care is thought to be an inherent part, but which leave families with the care of sick children with little or no support. Relevance to clinical practice. Family centred care is said to be used widely in practice. More research is needed to ensure that is it being implemented correctly.

Impact of Australia's Better Outcomes in Mental Health Care program on psychologists

The aim of this paper was to consider the impact on psychologists of one component of the Australian Government's Better Outcomes in Mental Health Care (BOiMHC) program, namely the Access to Allied Psychological Services (ATAPS) component. This supports psychologists and general practitioners (GPs) to work together to provide optimal mental health care, via 102 projects being conducted by Divisions of General Practice. The paper was informed by data from five sources: a project-based minimum dataset; local project evaluation reports; a forum; a survey of projects: and a survey of Australian Psychological Society (APS) members. Taken together, the data from these sources showed that a significant number of psychologists are providing services through the projects, and the majority are finding it a positive and professionally rewarding experience. There is considerable variability regarding models of retaining, locating and referring to psychologists, and there are pros and cons associated with each. The major problem identified by psychologists is the level of remuneration. BOiMHC is currently moving into a new phase of continuation and expansion, and consideration was given to whether the data point to any changes that could be made to the ATAPS projects during this period of transition. In the main, the data suggest that the status quo should be retained, but the issue of remuneration must be addressed.

Why are health care interventions delivered over the internet? A systematic review of the published literature

Background: As Internet use grows, health interventions are increasingly being delivered online. Pioneering researchers are using the networking potential of the Internet, and several of them have evaluated these interventions. Objective: The objective was to review the reasons why health interventions have been delivered on the Internet and to reflect on the work of the pioneers in this field in order to inform future research. Methods: We conducted a qualitative systematic review of peer-reviewed evaluations of health interventions delivered to a known client/patient group using networked features of the Internet. Papers were reviewed for the reasons given for using the Internet, and these reasons were categorized. Results: We included studies evaluating 28 interventions plus 9 interventions that were evaluated in pilot studies. The interventions were aimed at a range of health conditions. Reasons for Internet delivery included low cost and resource implications due to the nature of the technology; reducing cost and increasing convenience for users; reduction of health service costs; overcoming isolation of users; the need for timely information; stigma reduction; and increased user and supplier control of the intervention. A small number of studies gave the existence of Internet interventions as the only reason for undertaking an evaluation of this mode of delivery. Conclusions: One must remain alert for the unintended effects of Internet delivery of health interventions due to the potential for reinforcing the problems that the intervention was designed to help. Internet delivery overcomes isolation of time, mobility, and geography, but it may not be a substitute for face-to-face contact. Future evaluations need to incorporate the evaluation of cost, not only to the health service but also to users and their social networks. When researchers report the outcomes of Internet-delivered health care interventions, it is important that they clearly state why they chose to use the Internet, preferably backing up their decision with theoretical models and exploratory work. Evaluation of the effectiveness of a health care intervention delivered by the Internet needs to include comparison with more traditional modes of delivery to answer the following question: What are the added benefits or disadvantages of Internet use that are particular to this mode of delivery? © Griffiths, Frances, Lindenmeyer, Antje, Powell, John, Thorogood, Margaret.

Measuring the operational performance of intensive care units using the analytic hierarchy process approach

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to develop a performance measurement model for service operations using the analytic hierarchy process approach. Design/methodology/approach - The study reviews current relevant literature on performance measurement and develops a model for performance measurement. The model is then applied to the intensive care units (ICUs) of three different hospitals in developing nations. Six focus group discussions were undertaken, involving experts from the specific area under investigation, in order to develop an understandable performance measurement model that was both quantitative and hierarchical. Findings - A combination of outcome, structure and process-based factors were used as a foundation for the model. The analyses of the links between them were used to reveal the relative importance of each and their associated sub factors. It was considered to be an effective quantitative tool by the stakeholders. Research limitations/implications - This research only applies the model to ICUs in healthcare services. Practical implications - Performance measurement is an important area within the operations management field. Although numerous models are routinely being deployed both in practice and research, there is always room for improvement. The present study proposes a hierarchical quantitative approach, which considers both subjective and objective performance criteria. Originality/value - This paper develops a hierarchical quantitative model for service performance measurement. It considers success factors with respect to outcomes, structure and processes with the involvement of the concerned stakeholders based upon the analytic hierarchy process approach. The unique model is applied to the ICUs of hospitals in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. The unique application provides a comparative international study of service performance measurement in ICUs of hospitals in three different countries. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Comparing German and British political culture through values : and analysis of the values of health care reform

This research sets out to compare the values in British and German political discourse, especially the discourse of social policy, and to analyse their relationship to political culture through an analysis of the values of health care reform. The work proceeds from the hypothesis that the known differences in political culture between the two countries will be reflected in the values of political discourse, and takes a comparison of two major recent legislative debates on health care reform as a case study. The starting point in the first chapter is a brief comparative survey of the post-war political cultures of the two countries, including a brief account of the historical background to their development and an overview of explanatory theoretical models. From this are developed the expected contrasts in values in accordance with the hypothesis. The second chapter explains the basis for selecting the corpus texts and the contextual information which needs to be recorded to make a comparative analysis, including the context and content of the reform proposals which comprise the case study. It examines any contextual factors which may need to be taken into account in the analysis. The third and fourth chapters explain the analytical method, which is centred on the use of definition-based taxonomies of value items and value appeal methods to identify, on a sentence-by-sentence basis, the value items in the corpus texts and the methods used to make appeals to those value items. The third chapter is concerned with the classification and analysis of values, the fourth with the classification and analysis of value appeal methods. The fifth chapter will present and explain the results of the analysis, and the sixth will summarize the conclusions and make suggestions for further research.

Clinical decision support system for point of care use: ontology driven design and software implementation

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this research was to design a clinical decision support system (CDSS) that supports heterogeneous clinical decision problems and runs on multiple computing platforms. Meeting this objective required a novel design to create an extendable and easy to maintain clinical CDSS for point of care support. The proposed solution was evaluated in a proof of concept implementation. METHODS: Based on our earlier research with the design of a mobile CDSS for emergency triage we used ontology-driven design to represent essential components of a CDSS. Models of clinical decision problems were derived from the ontology and they were processed into executable applications during runtime. This allowed scaling applications' functionality to the capabilities of computing platforms. A prototype of the system was implemented using the extended client-server architecture and Web services to distribute the functions of the system and to make it operational in limited connectivity conditions. RESULTS: The proposed design provided a common framework that facilitated development of diversified clinical applications running seamlessly on a variety of computing platforms. It was prototyped for two clinical decision problems and settings (triage of acute pain in the emergency department and postoperative management of radical prostatectomy on the hospital ward) and implemented on two computing platforms-desktop and handheld computers. CONCLUSIONS: The requirement of the CDSS heterogeneity was satisfied with ontology-driven design. Processing of application models described with the help of ontological models allowed having a complex system running on multiple computing platforms with different capabilities. Finally, separation of models and runtime components contributed to improved extensibility and maintainability of the system.