985 resultados para stock return predictability


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(PDF contains 83 pages.)

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Catch data were collected from three beaches in the Mwanza area of lake Victoria, Tanzania for Oreochromis niloticus (L.), Rastrineobola argentea (Pellegrin) and Lates niloticus (L.). Sampling took place in October 1997 and February, June and September 1998. The CPUE for O. niloticus was 3.9 to 6kg boat super(-1) and for R. argentea from 98 to 282 kg boat super(-1). There was no obvious trend in catch rates for L. niloticus. The modal length for O. niloticus recorded at Chole beach was 34cm TL. In February, fish were larger (41-45 cm) than in the other surveys. Rastrineobola argentea caught in October 1997 had modal length at 65 mm TL with some smaller fish. In February and June prominent length modes occurred at 45 and 58 mm respectively, which may represent the same cohort as the small fish caught in October 1997. In September 1998, there were two length modes at 46 and 60 mm. The 60 mm fish may represent the same cohort seen in previous surveys, suggesting growth from approximately 30 mm to 60 mm in an eleven-month period. Lates niloticus landed at Kayenze beach over the four surveys had a modal length of 46 cm TL. Fish species encountered on the three beaches during the surveys were O. niloticus, R. argentea, Bagrus docmak Forsskall, Clarias gariepinus (Burchell), Protopterus aethiopicus Heckel, Labeo victorians Boulenger, Synodontis afrofischeri Hilgendorf, Synodontis victoriae Boulanger, Schilbe intermedius (L.), Brycinus jacksonii (Boulanger), Mormyrus kannume Forsskall and Haplochromine cichlids

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This thesis is comprised of three chapters, each of which is concerned with properties of allocational mechanisms which include voting procedures as part of their operation. The theme of interaction between economic and political forces recurs in the three chapters, as described below.

Chapter One demonstrates existence of a non-controlling interest shareholders' equilibrium for a stylized one-period stock market economy with fewer securities than states of the world. The economy has two decision mechanisms: Owners vote to change firms' production plans across states, fixing shareholdings; and individuals trade shares and the current production / consumption good, fixing production plans. A shareholders' equilibrium is a production plan profile, and a shares / current good allocation stable for both mechanisms. In equilibrium, no (Kramer direction-restricted) plan revision is supported by a share-weighted majority, and there exists no Pareto superior reallocation.

Chapter Two addresses efficient management of stationary-site, fixed-budget, partisan voter registration drives. Sufficient conditions obtain for unique optimal registrar deployment within contested districts. Each census tract is assigned an expected net plurality return to registration investment index, computed from estimates of registration, partisanship, and turnout. Optimum registration intensity is a logarithmic transformation of a tract's index. These conditions are tested using a merged data set including both census variables and Los Angeles County Registrar data from several 1984 Assembly registration drives. Marginal registration spending benefits, registrar compensation, and the general campaign problem are also discussed.

The last chapter considers social decision procedures at a higher level of abstraction. Chapter Three analyzes the structure of decisive coalition families, given a quasitransitive-valued social decision procedure satisfying the universal domain and ITA axioms. By identifying those alternatives X* ⊆ X on which the Pareto principle fails, imposition in the social ranking is characterized. Every coaliton is weakly decisive for X* over X~X*, and weakly antidecisive for X~X* over X*; therefore, alternatives in X~X* are never socially ranked above X*. Repeated filtering of alternatives causing Pareto failure shows states in X^n*~X^((n+1))* are never socially ranked above X^((n+1))*. Limiting results of iterated application of the *-operator are also discussed.

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Three commercially important fish species, Lates niloticus (L.), Rastrineobola argentea (Pellegrin) and Oreochromis niloticus (L.) that are fished by artisanal fishermen of Lake Victoria, Tanzania part, were studied in Kagera, Mwanza and Mara beaches from October 1997 to July 1999. Catches, effort, exploitation and stock structure were investigated. Beaches for sampling were selected based on importance for landing the above named fish species. The number of boats found on beach that day, the number that lay idle and their means of propulsion were recorded. As many boats as possible were sampled for gear type and gear size. The catches were sorted into species and measured. Variation in the species and size composition of landings was observed between regions, between months and between gears used. The implications of the findings to management are discussed.

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Este trabalho tem por objetivo verificar se há diferença quanto ao nível de significância estatística no cálculo do retorno anormal realizado através de quatro modelos estatísticos utilizados em estudos de eventos, tendo como objeto de estudo empresas no mercado de ações no Brasil durante o período de março de 2003 até julho de 2010 na Bovespa. Considerando a importância do cálculo do retorno anormal nos estudos de eventos, bem como possíveis variações de resultados decorrentes da escolha do modelo de cálculo, este estudo utiliza um tema bastante conhecido, qual seja, o anúncio de recompra de ações feito pela própria companhia emissora dos títulos. A metodologia utilizada nesta pesquisa foi quantitativa, utilizando o estudo de corte transversal. Os resultados apontam que há diferença entre os níveis de significância encontrados. Ao analisar o gráfico dos modelos calculados no período da janela do evento, verificou-se que as empresas que recompraram ações a fizeram quando os papéis estavam com retorno anormal acumulado negativo e, após a recompra, os papéis tiveram retornos anormais acumulados positivos. Recalculou-se os dois modelos que utilizam o Ibovespa em sua fórmula de cálculo, através de um Ibovespa sem ponderação e conclui-se que os resultados apontam na direção de se evitar o uso de índices ponderados de mercado, preferindo a utilização de carteiras compostas apenas com uma ação para cada empresa componente da carteira de controle. Após este recálculo, verificou-se que o modelo que era menos próximo dos demais graficamente era o modelo de retorno ajustado ao mercado ponderado. Por fim, as evidências empíricas indicam que o mercado de capitais brasileiro ajusta tempestivamente os papéis das empresas que realizaram recompra de ações, em linha com o que prescreve a hipótese do mercado eficiente na sua forma semiforte.

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The Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC) hosted a meeting, sponsored jointly by the IATTC and the Australian Fisheries Service, to discuss and report on the strengths and weaknesses of stock assessment techniques used on bluefin tuna stocks in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans and the Mediterranean Sea. The meeting was held in La Jolla, California, on Mat 25-31, 1990.

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[EN] The aim of this paper is to study systematic liquidity at the Euronext Lisbon Stock Exchange. The motivation for this research is provided by the growing interest in financial literature about stock liquidity and the implications of commonality in liquidity for asset pricing since it could represent a source of non-diversifiable risk. Namely, it is analysed whether there exist common factors that drive the variation in individual stock liquidity and the causes of the inter-temporal variation of aggregate liquidity. Monthly data for the period between January 1988 and December 2011 is used to compute some of the most used proxies for liquidity: bid-ask spreads, turnover rate, trading volume, proportion of zero returns and the illiquidity ratio. Following Chordia et al. (2000) methodology, some evidence of commonality in liquidity is found in the Portuguese stock market when the proportion of zero returns is used as a measure of liquidity. In relation to the factors that drive the inter-temporal variation of the Portuguese stock market liquidity, the results obtained within a VAR framework suggest that changes in real economy activity, monetary policy (proxied by changes in monetary aggregate M1) and stock market returns play an important role as determinants of commonality in liquidity.

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The stock of salmon in any river is largely dependent upon the escapement of sufficient fish to ensure that an adequate quantity of ova is deposited and full use is made of all suitable spawning areas. At the present time, no accurate information is available on the numbers of fish entering rivers. Therefore, catch returns provide valuable information on fish stocks. This report summarises the catch returns for salmon in the Lancashire River Authority in the North of England for the years 1960-1964. Rivers included are the Lune, Ribble, Kent, Leven and Duddon.

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In the past stock assessment surveys were generally reactive in response to a particular problem e.g. a pollution incident and as such were limited in the information they provided. A programme of strategic stock assessment would be more beneficial, providing up to date information on the status and composition of the stock. On a national level this could reveal trends in population dynamics and enable comparisons to be made between key rivers and between regions. The Stock Assessment Task Group (1991) has recommended annual strategic surveys for juvenile salmonids and triennial strategic surveys for coarse fish and non- migratory salmonids. The aim of this pilot study was to gain information on species distribution and their relative abundance within the River Lune catchment, and to compare the findings with the surveys carried out between 1981-1985. This would provide valuable information on the current status of the stock and provide an indication of the resources required to conduct such strategic surveys on other river catchments in the North West Region of the National Rivers Authority.

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As instituições financeiras são obrigadas por acordos internacionais, como o Acordo de Basiléia, a avaliar o risco de mercado ao qual a instituição está propensa de forma a evitar possíveis contaminações de desastres financeiros em seu patrimônio. Com o intuito de capturar tais fenômenos, surge a necessidade de construir modelos que capturem com mais acurácia movimentos extremos das séries de retornos. O trabalho teve como principal objetivo aplicar a Teoria do Valor Extremo juntamente com Copulas na estimação de quantis extremos para o VaR. Ele utiliza técnicas de simulação de Monte Carlo, Teoria do Valor Extremo e Cópulas com distribuições gaussianas e t. Em contrapartida, as estimativas produzidas serão comparadas com as de um segundo modelo, chamado de simulação histórica de Monte Carlo filtrada, mais conhecida como filtered historical simulation (FHS). As técnicas serão aplicadas a um portfólio de ações de empresas brasileiras.

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This report presents data from the juvenile salmonid fish stock assessment which is part of the routine Environment Agency riverine monitoring programme. A total of 110 sites was electrofished throughout the Lune catchment between 15th July 1997 and 14th October 1997. These sites included 84 that had been previously sampled in the last comprehensive survey of the catchment, in 1991. The aim of this survey was to assess the distribution and abundance of juvenile salmon and trout in the River Lune catchment and to compare results with those of previous surveys.

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This draft copy of the River Lune juvenile fish stock assessment from 2000 provides "Site Reports" from different water bodies in the Lune catchment. These Site Reports provide brief information on habitat features, fishery classification and comments on species caught and stocking. This document provides no summary or interpretation of the given data.