Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Probable consequences of the mitigation of citrus canker eradication methodology in Sao Paulo state

Probable consequences of the mitigation of citrus canker eradication methodology in Sao Paulo state Recently the Sao Paulo state government mitigated its citrus canker eradication methodology adopted since 1999. In April 2009 at least 99.8% of commercial sweet orange orchards were free of citrus canker in Sao Paulo state. Consequently the mitigation of the eradication methodology reduced the high level of safety and the competitiveness of the citrus production sector in Sao Paulo state, Brazil. Therefore we suggest the re-adoption of the same eradication methodology of citrus canker adopted in Sao Paulo from 1999 to 2009, or the adoption of a new methodology, effective for citrus canker suppression, because in new sample surveys citrus canker was detected in >0.36% of affected orchards. This incidence threshold was calculated by using the Duncan test (P <= 0.05) to compare the yearly sample surveys conducted in Sao Paulo state to estimate citrus canker incidence between 1999 and 2009. The calculated minimum significant level was 0.28% among sample surveys and the lowest citrus canker incidence in Sao Paulo state was 0.08%, occurring in 2001. Thus, as an alternative, we suggest the adoption of a new eradication methodology for citrus canker suppression when a new sample survey detected >0.36% of affected orchards in Sao Paulo state, Brazil.

Sensory evaluation and physicochemical optimisation of soy-based desserts using response surface methodology

The objective of this study was to develop a dessert that contains soy protein (SP) (1%, 2%, 3%) and guava juice (GJ) (22%, 27%, 32%) using Response Surface Methodology (RSM) as the optimisation technique. Water activity, physical stability, colour, acidity, pH, iron, and carotenoid contents were analysed. Affective tests were performed to determine the degree of liking of colour, creaminess, and acceptability. The results showed that GJ increased the values of redness, hue angle, chromaticity, acidity, and carotenoid content, while SP reduced water activity. Optimisation suggested a dessert containing 32% GJ and 1.17% SP as the best proportion of these components. This sample was considered a source of fibres, ascorbic acid, copper, and iron and garnered scores above the level of `slightly liked` for sensory attributes. Moreover, RSM was shown to be an adequate approach for modelling the physicochemical parameters and the degree of liking of creaminess of desserts. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physical Stability Assessment and Sensory Optimization of a Dairy-Free Emulsion Using Response Surface Methodology

Desserts made with soy cream, which are oil-in-water emulsions, are widely consumed by lactose-intolerant individuals in Brazil. In this regard, this study aimed at using response surface methodology (RSM) to optimize the sensory attributes of a soy-based emulsion over a range of pink guava juice (GJ: 22% to 32%) and soy protein (SP: 1% to 3%). WHC and backscattering were analyzed after 72 h of storage at 7 degrees C. Furthermore, a rating test was performed to determine the degree of liking of color, taste, creaminess, appearance, and overall acceptability. The data showed that the samples were stable against gravity and storage. The models developed by RSM adequately described the creaminess, taste, and appearance of the emulsions. The response surface of the desirability function was used successfully in the optimization of the sensory properties of dairy-free emulsions, suggesting that a product with 30.35% GJ and 3% SP was the best combination of these components. The optimized sample presented suitable sensory properties, in addition to being a source of dietary fiber, iron, copper, and ascorbic acid.

Evaluation of natural and synthetic compounds according to their antioxidant activity using a multivariate approach

The antioxidant activity of natural and synthetic compounds was evaluated using five in vitro methods: ferric reducing/antioxidant power (FRAP), 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydradzyl (DPPH), oxygen radical absorption capacity (ORAL), oxidation of an aqueous dispersion of linoleic acid accelerated by azo-initiators (LAOX), and oxidation of a meat homogenate submitted to a thermal treatment (TBARS). All results were expressed as Trolox equivalents. The application of multivariate statistical techniques suggested that the phenolic compounds (caffeic acid, carnosic acid, genistein and resveratrol), beyond their high antioxidant activity measured by the DPPH, FRAP and TBARS methods, showed the highest ability to react with the radicals in the ORAC methodology, compared to the other compounds evaluated in this study (ascorbic acid, erythorbate, tocopherol, BHT, Trolox, tryptophan, citric acid, EDTA, glutathione, lecithin, methionine and tyrosine). This property was significantly correlated with the number of phenolic rings and catecholic structure present in the molecule. Based on a multivariate analysis, it is possible to select compounds from different clusters and explore their antioxidant activity interactions in food products.

LC-UV Methodology for Simultaneous Determination of Lamivudine and Zidovudine in Plasma by Liquid-Liquid Extraction

This study describes an accurate, sensitive, and specific chromatographic method for the simultaneous quantitative determination of lamivudine and zidovudine in human blood plasma, using stavudine as an internal standard. The chromatographic separation was performed using a C8 column (150 x 4.6 mm, 5 mu m), and ultraviolet absorbency detection at 270 nm with gradient elution. Two mobile phases were used. Phase A contained 10 mM potassium phosphate and 3% acetonitrile, whereas Phase B contained methanol. A linear gradient was used with a variability of A-B phase proportion from 98-2% to 72-28%, respectively. The drug extraction was performed with two 4 mL aliquots of ethyl acetate.

Processing optimization of probiotic yogurt containing glucose oxidase using response surface methodology

Exposure to oxygen may induce a lack of functionality of probiotic dairy foods because the anaerobic metabolism of probiotic bacteria compromises during storage the maintenance of their viability to provide benefits to consumer health. Glucose oxidase can constitute a potential alternative to increase the survival of probiotic bacteria in yogurt because it consumes the oxygen permeating to the inside of the pot during storage, thus making it possible to avoid the use of chemical additives. This research aimed to optimize the processing of probiotic yogurt supplemented with glucose oxidase using response surface methodology and to determine the levels of glucose and glucose oxidase that minimize the concentration of dissolved oxygen and maximize the Bifidobacterium longum count by the desirability function. Response surface methodology mathematical models adequately described the process, with adjusted determination coefficients of 83% for the oxygen and 94% for the B. longum. Linear and quadratic effects of the glucose oxidase were reported for the oxygen model, whereas for the B. longum count model an influence of the glucose oxidase at the linear level was observed followed by the quadratic influence of glucose and quadratic effect of glucose oxidase. The desirability function indicated that 62.32 ppm of glucose oxidase and 4.35 ppm of glucose was the best combination of these components for optimization of probiotic yogurt processing. An additional validation experiment was performed and results showed acceptable error between the predicted and experimental results.

Synergism on antioxidant activity between natural compounds optimized by response surface methodology

Despite the increase in the use of natural compounds in place of synthetic derivatives as antioxidants in food products, the extent of this substitution is limited by cost constraints. Thus, the objective of this study was to explore the synergism on the antioxidant activity of natural compounds, for further application in food products. Three hydrosoluble compounds (x(1) = caffeic acid, x(2) = carnosic acid, and x(3) = glutathione) and three liposoluble compounds (x(1) = quercetin, x(2) = rutin, and x(3) = genistein) were mixed according to a ""centroid simplex design"". The antioxidant activity of the mixtures was analyzed by the ferric reducing antioxidant power (FRAP) and oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAL) methodologies, and activity was also evaluated in an oxidized mixed micelle prepared with linoleic acid (LAOX). Cubic polynomial models with predictive capacity were obtained when the mixtures were submitted to the LAOX methodology ((y) over cap = 0.56 x(1) + 0.59 x(2) + 0.04 x(3) + 0.41 x(1)x(2) - 0.41 x(1)x(3) - 1.12 x(2)x(3) - 4.01 x(1)x(2)x(3)) for the hydrosoluble compounds, and to FRAP methodology ((y) over cap = 3.26 x(1) + 2.39 x(2) + 0.04 x(3) + 1.51 x(1)x(2) + 1.03 x(1)x(3) + 0.29 x(1)x(3) + 3.20 x(1)x(2)x(3)) for the liposoluble compounds. Optimization of the models suggested that a mixture containing 47% caffeic acid + 53% carnosic acid and a mixture containing 67% quercetin + 33% rutin were potential synergistic combinations for further evaluation using a food matrix.

Evaluation of flow regimes in a semi-cylindrical spouted bed through statistical, mutual information, spectral and Hurst`s analysis

Hydrodynamic studies were conducted in a semi-cylindrical spouted bed column of diameter 150 mm, height 1000 mm, conical base included angle of 60 degrees and inlet orifice diameter 25 mm. Pressure transducers at several axial positions were used to obtain pressure fluctuation time series with 1.2 and 2.4 mm glass beads at U/U-ms from 0.3 to 1.6, and static bed depths from 150 to 600 mm. The conditions covered several flow regimes (fixed bed, incipient spouting, stable spouting, pulsating spouting, slugging, bubble spouting and fluidization). Images of the system dynamics were also acquired through the transparent walls with a digital camera. The data were analyzed via statistical, mutual information theory, spectral and Hurst`s Rescaled Range methods to assess the potential of these methods to characterize the spouting quality. The results indicate that these methods have potential for monitoring spouted bed operation.

Parameter setting and statistical learning

Three main models of parameter setting have been proposed: the Variational model proposed by Yang (2002; 2004), the Structured Acquisition model endorsed by Baker (2001; 2005), and the Very Early Parameter Setting (VEPS) model advanced by Wexler (1998). The VEPS model contends that parameters are set early. The Variational model supposes that children employ statistical learning mechanisms to decide among competing parameter values, so this model anticipates delays in parameter setting when critical input is sparse, and gradual setting of parameters. On the Structured Acquisition model, delays occur because parameters form a hierarchy, with higher-level parameters set before lower-level parameters. Assuming that children freely choose the initial value, children sometimes will miss-set parameters. However when that happens, the input is expected to trigger a precipitous rise in one parameter value and a corresponding decline in the other value. We will point to the kind of child language data that is needed in order to adjudicate among these competing models.

A simple design methodology for elliptical cross-section, transverse, asymmetric, head gradient coils for MRI

A simple design process for the design of elliptical cross-section, transverse gradient coils for use in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is presented. This process is based on a flexible stochastic optimization method and results in designs of high linearity and efficiency with low switching times. A design study of a shielded, transverse asymmetric elliptical coil set for use in neural imaging is presented and includes the minimization of the torques experienced by the gradient set.

Mortality variation across Australia: descriptive data for States and Territories, and statistical divisions

OBJECTIVE: To describe variation in all cause and selected cause-specific mortality rates across Australia. METHODS: Mortality and population data for 1997 were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. All cause and selected cause-specific mortality rates were calculated and directly standardised to the 1997 Australian population in 5-year age groups. Selected major causes of death included cancer, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, accidents and suicide. Rates are reported by statistical division, and State and Territory. RESULTS: All cause age-standardised mortality was 6.98 per 1000 in 1997 and this varied 2-fold from a low in the statistical division of Pilbara, Western Australia (5.78, 95% confidence interval 5.06-6.56), to a high in Northern Territory-excluding Darwin (11.30, 10.67-11.98). Similar mortality variation (all p<0.0001) exists for cancer (1.01-2.23 per 1000) and coronary artery disease (0.99-2.23 per 1000), the two biggest killers. Larger variation (all p<0.0001) exists for cerebrovascular disease (0.7-11.8 per 10,000), diabetes (0.7-6.9 per 10,000), accidents (1.7-7.2 per 10,000) and suicide (0.6-3.8 per 10,000). Less marked variation was observed when analysed by State and Territory. but Northern Territory consistently has the highest age-standardised mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Analysed by statistical division, substantial mortality gradients exist across Australia, suggesting an inequitable distribution of the determinants of health. Further research is required to better understand this heterogeneity.

Small area population disease burden

Small area health statistics has assumed increasing importance as the focus of population and public health moves to a more individualised approach of smaller area populations. Small populations and low event occurrence produce difficulties in interpretation and require appropriate statistical methods, including for age adjustment. There are also statistical questions related to multiple comparisons. Privacy and confidentiality issues include the possibility of revealing information on individuals or health care providers by fine cross-tabulations. Interpretation of small area population differences in health status requires consideration of migrant and Indigenous composition, socio-economic status and rural-urban geography before assessment of the effects of physical environmental exposure and services and interventions. Burden of disease studies produce a single measure for morbidity and mortality - disability adjusted life year (DALY) - which is the sum of the years of life lost (YLL) from premature mortality and the years lived with disability (YLD) for particular diseases (or all conditions). Calculation of YLD requires estimates of disease incidence (and complications) and duration, and weighting by severity. These procedures often mean problematic assumptions, as does future discounting and age weighting of both YLL and YLD. Evaluation of the Victorian small area population disease burden study presents important cross-disciplinary challenges as it relies heavily on synthetic approaches of demography and economics rather than on the empirical methods of epidemiology. Both empirical and synthetic methods are used to compute small area mortality and morbidity, disease burden, and then attribution to risk factors. Readers need to examine the methodology and assumptions carefully before accepting the results.

A time-harmonic inverse methodology for the design of RF coils in MRI

An inverse methodology is described to assist in the design of radio-frequency (RF) coils for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) applications. The time-harmonic electromagnetic Green's functions are used to calculate current on the coil and shield cylinders that will generate a specified internal magnetic field. Stream function techniques and the method of moments are then used to implement this theoretical current density into an RF coil. A novel asymmetric coil operating for a 4.5 T MRI machine was designed and constructed using this methodology and the results are presented.