e-Research Methods Theme 7 Data Analysis ZIP

Source files for theme 7

Plasmapheresis vs. immunoglobulin in autoimmune neurologic diseases: a meta-analysis

Objectives: to evaluate the efficacy and safety of human immunoglobulin versus plasmapheresis in the management of autoimmune neurologic diseases. Likewise, length of hospital stay and duration of ventilator support were compared. Methods: Randomized controlled trials and analytical observational studies of more than 10 cases, were reviewed. Cochrane Neuromuscular Disease Group trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, HINARI Ovid, the Database of abstracts of reviews of effectiveness and the Economic evaluation Database were searched as data source. Reference lists were examined for further relevant articles. A random-effect model was used to derive a pooled risk ratio. Results: 725 articles were found and 27 met the criteria for a population studied of 4717 cases: 14 articles were about Guillain Barré syndrome, 10 of Myasthenia Gravis, one of Sydenham Chorea, one of Chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy, and one of PANDAS. No evidence was found in favor of any of the two treatments as regards effectiveness (OR 0.94, IC 0.63 – 1.41, p= 0.77) or ventilator support time; IGIV had a significant better safety profile than plasmapheresis (OR 0.70, IC 0.51 – 0.96, p= 0.03) and patients needed less time of hospital stay (p=0.03). Conclusions: There is no evidence for superiority in the effectiveness of immunoglobulin or plasmapheresis in the management of autoimmune neurologic diseases. Nevertheless, patients treated with immunoglobulin have statistically significant less adverse effects, a shorter hospital stay and a tendency of less ventilator support time. These premises could lead to fewer costs for health services but an economic study should be done.

Cartoons and economics: general analysis based on colombian economic cartoons

May cartoons be considered as a viable and credible source for the study of economics? There is hardly any research on the subject, even though there is a quite significant amount of cartoons with economic content. This suggests that economics (and economists) have not paid enough attention and do not incorporate in their analysis a relevant primary source. The present paper aims to explore the value of using cartoons as a complementary primary source in economic analysis. We present a way of analyzing economic history through cartoons; first, reviewing cartoons which describe particular historical circumstances and second, examining cartoons that represent generic economic situations and are not necessarily linked to a historical period. We choose 17 cartoons, from different cartoonist, especially Colombian cartoonists that may give us an idea of economic matters and economic history.

Response of the benthic macroinvertebrate community to a point source in La Tordera stream (Catalonia, NE Spain)

Vam monitoritzar paràmetres físics i químics, macroinvertebrats bentònics, clorofil·la a, productors primaris i matèria orgànica durant un any (2001-2002) per examinar els efectes d'una font puntual sobre la composició taxonòmica, la estructura de la comunitat, l'organització funcional, la utilització de l'habitat i la estoquiometria al riu la Tordera (Catalunya). Aigües avall de la font puntual, concentració de nutrients, cabal i conductivitat eren majors que al tram d'aigües amunt, mentre que oxigen dissolt era menor. La densitat de macroinvertebrats era més elevada al tram d'aigües avall però la biomassa era similar als dos trams. La riquesa taxonòmica al tram de dalt era un 20% més alt que al tram de baix. Els anàlisis d'ordenació separen clarament els dos trams en el primer eix, mentre que els dos trams presentaven una pauta temporal similar en el segon eix. La similaritat entre els dos trams en composició taxonòmica, densitats i biomasses després de les crescudes d'abril i maig de 2002, indiquen que les pertorbacions del cabal poden actuar com a un mecanisme de reinici de la comunitat bentònica i jugar un paper important per a la restauració d'ecosistemes fluvials. Els dos trams presentaven una biomassa de perifiton, plantes vasculars, CPOM i FPOM similars, mentre que clorofil·la a, algues filamentoses, molses i SPOM eren majors al tram d'aigües avall. La densitat relativa de trituradors era menor sota la font puntual mentre que col·lectors i filtradors van ser afavorits. La biomassa relativa de trituradors també era menor sota la font puntual, però la biomassa de col·lectors i depredadors va augmentar. Les relacions entre densitat de grups tròfics i els seus recursos eren rarament significatives. La relació s'explicava millor amb la biomassa de macroinvertebrats. Els dos trams compartien la mateixa relació per raspadors, col·lectors i filtradors però no per trituradors i depredadors. La densitat i la biomassa de macroinvertebrats es trobaven positivament correlacionades amb la quantitat de recursos tròfics i la complexitat d'habitat, mentre que la riquesa taxonòmica es trobava negativament relacionada amb paràmetres hidràulics. La influència dels substrats inorgànics prenia menor rellevància per a la distribució dels macroinvertebrats. Els anàlisis d'ordenació mostren com les variables del microhabitat de major rellevància eren CPOM, clorofil·la a, algues filamentoses i velocitat. La cobertura de sorra només era significativa per al tram d'aigües amunt i les molses, al d'aigües avall. El número de correlacions significatives entre macroinvertebrats i les variables del microhabitat era més elevat per al tram de dalt que per al de baix, bàsicament per diferències en composició taxonòmica. La biomassa de macroinvertebrats va aportar una informació semblant a la obtinguda per la densitat. Perifiton i molses tenien uns continguts de nutrients similars en els dos trams. Els %C i %N d'algues filamentoses també eren similars en els dos trams però el %P sota la font puntual era el doble que al tram de dalt. Les relacions estoquiomètriques en CPOM, FPOM i SPOM eren considerablement menors sota la font puntual. Els continguts elementals i relacions van ser molt variables entre taxons de macroinvertebrats però no van resultar significativament diferents entre els dos trams. Dípters, tricòpters i efemeròpters presentaven una estoquiometria similar, mentre que el C i el N eren inferiors en moluscs i el P en coleòpters. Els depredadors presentaven un contingut en C i N més elevat que la resta de grups tròfics, mentre que el P era major en els filtradors. Els desequilibris elementals entre consumidors i recursos eren menors en el tram d'aigües avall. A la tardor i l'hivern la major font de nutrients va ser la BOM mentre que a la primavera i a l'estiu va ser el perifiton.

Chemical composition observed over the mid-Atlantic and the detection of pollution signatures far from source regions

The atmospheric composition of the central North Atlantic region has been sampled using the FAAM BAe146 instrumented aircraft during the Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) campaign, part of the wider International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT). This paper presents an overview of the ITOP campaign. Between late July and early August 2004, twelve flights comprising 72 hours of measurement were made in a region from approximately 20 to 40°W and 33 to 47°N centered on Faial Island, Azores, ranging in altitude from 50 to 9000 m. The vertical profiles of O3 and CO are consistent with previous observations made in this region during 1997 and our knowledge of the seasonal cycles within the region. A cluster analysis technique is used to partition the data set into air mass types with distinct chemical signatures. Six clusters provide a suitable balance between cluster generality and specificity. The clusters are labeled as biomass burning, low level outflow, upper level outflow, moist lower troposphere, marine and upper troposphere. During this summer, boreal forest fire emissions from Alaska and northern Canada were found to provide a major perturbation of tropospheric composition in CO, PAN, organic compounds and aerosol. Anthropogenic influenced air from the continental boundary layer of the USA was clearly observed running above the marine boundary layer right across the mid-Atlantic, retaining high pollution levels in VOCs and sulfate aerosol. Upper level outflow events were found to have far lower sulfate aerosol, resulting from washout on ascent, but much higher PAN associated with the colder temperatures. Lagrangian links with flights of other aircraft over the USA and Europe show that such signatures are maintained many days downwind of emission regions. Some other features of the data set are highlighted, including the strong perturbations to many VOCs and OVOCs in this remote region.

The Representative Soil Sampling Scheme of England and Wales: a statistical analysis of topsoil nutrient status and pH between 1971 and 2001

The Representative Soil Sampling Scheme of England and Wales has recorded information on the soil of agricultural land in England and Wales since 1969. It is a valuable source of information about the soil in the context of monitoring for sustainable agricultural development. Changes in soil nutrient status and pH were examined over the period 1971-2001. Several methods of statistical analysis were applied to data from the surveys during this period. The main focus here is on the data for 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001. The results of examining change over time in general show that levels of potassium in the soil have increased, those of magnesium have remained fairly constant, those of phosphorus have declined and pH has changed little. Future sampling needs have been assessed in the context of monitoring, to determine the mean at a given level of confidence and tolerable error and to detect change in the mean over time at these same levels over periods of 5 and 10 years. The results of a non-hierarchical multivariate classification suggest that England and Wales could be stratified to optimize future sampling and analysis. To monitor soil quality and health more generally than for agriculture, more of the country should be sampled and a wider range of properties recorded.

The point source method for inverse scattering in the time domain

Many recent inverse scattering techniques have been designed for single frequency scattered fields in the frequency domain. In practice, however, the data is collected in the time domain. Frequency domain inverse scattering algorithms obviously apply to time-harmonic scattering, or nearly time-harmonic scattering, through application of the Fourier transform. Fourier transform techniques can also be applied to non-time-harmonic scattering from pulses. Our goal here is twofold: first, to establish conditions on the time-dependent waves that provide a correspondence between time domain and frequency domain inverse scattering via Fourier transforms without recourse to the conventional limiting amplitude principle; secondly, we apply the analysis in the first part of this work toward the extension of a particular scattering technique, namely the point source method, to scattering from the requisite pulses. Numerical examples illustrate the method and suggest that reconstructions from admissible pulses deliver superior reconstructions compared to straight averaging of multi-frequency data. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Excess open solar magnetic flux from satellite data: 1. Analysis of the third perihelion Ulysses pass

We use the third perihelion pass by the Ulysses spacecraft to illustrate and investigate the “flux excess” effect, whereby open solar flux estimates from spacecraft increase with increasing heliocentric distance. We analyze the potential effects of small-scale structure in the heliospheric field (giving fluctuations in the radial component on timescales smaller than 1 h) and kinematic time-of-flight effects of longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow. We show that the flux excess is explained by neither very small-scale structure (timescales < 1 h) nor by the kinematic “bunching effect” on spacecraft sampling. The observed flux excesses is, however, well explained by the kinematic effect of larger-scale (>1 day) solar wind speed variations on the frozen-in heliospheric field. We show that averaging over an interval T (that is long enough to eliminate structure originating in the heliosphere yet small enough to avoid cancelling opposite polarity radial field that originates from genuine sector structure in the coronal source field) is only an approximately valid way of allowing for these effects and does not adequately explain or account for differences between the streamer belt and the polar coronal holes.

Factors controlling the distribution of ozone in the West African lower troposphere during the AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis) wet season campaign

Ozone and its precursors were measured on board the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe 146 Atmospheric Research Aircraft during the monsoon season 2006 as part of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) campaign. One of the main features observed in the west African boundary layer is the increase of the ozone mixing ratios from 25 ppbv over the forested area (south of 12° N) up to 40 ppbv over the Sahelian area. We employ a two-dimensional (latitudinal versus vertical) meteorological model coupled with an O3-NOx-VOC chemistry scheme to simulate the distribution of trace gases over West Africa during the monsoon season and to analyse the processes involved in the establishment of such a gradient. Including an additional source of NO over the Sahelian region to account for NO emitted by soils we simulate a mean NOx concentration of 0.7 ppbv at 16° N versus 0.3 ppbv over the vegetated region further south in reasonable agreement with the observations. As a consequence, ozone is photochemically produced with a rate of 0.25 ppbv h−1 over the vegetated region whilst it reaches up to 0.75 ppbv h−1 at 16° N. We find that the modelled gradient is due to a combination of enhanced deposition to vegetation, which decreases the ozone levels by up to 11 pbbv, and the aforementioned enhanced photochemical production north of 12° N. The peroxy radicals required for this enhanced production in the north come from the oxidation of background CO and CH4 as well as from VOCs. Sensitivity studies reveal that both the background CH4 and partially oxidised VOCs, produced from the oxidation of isoprene emitted from the vegetation in the south, contribute around 5–6 ppbv to the ozone gradient. These results suggest that the northward transport of trace gases by the monsoon flux, especially during nighttime, can have a significant, though secondary, role in determining the ozone gradient in the boundary layer. Convection, anthropogenic emissions and NO produced from lightning do not contribute to the establishment of the discussed ozone gradient.

Remote gas detection and quantitative analysis from infrared emission spectra obtained by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy

Techniques for obtaining quantitative values of the temperatures and concentrations of remote hot gaseous effluents from their measured passive emission spectra have been examined in laboratory experiments. The high sensitivity of the spectrometer in the vicinity of the 2397 cm-1 band head region of CO2 has allowed the gas temperature to be calculated from the relative intensity of the observed rotational lines. The spatial distribution of the CO2 in a methane flame has been reconstructed tomographically using a matrix inversion technique. The spectrometer has been calibrated against a black body source at different temperatures and a self absorption correction has been applied to the data avoiding the need to measure the transmission directly. Reconstruction artifacts have been reduced by applying a smoothing routine to the inversion matrix.

Cost-benefit analysis model of badger (Meles meles) culling to reduce cattle herd tuberculosis breakdowns in Britain, with particular reference to badger perturbation

Bovine tuberculosis (TB)is an important economic disease. Badgers (Meles meles) are the wildlife source implicated in many cattle outbreaks of TB in Britain, and extensive badger control is a controversial option to reduce the disease. A badger and cattle population model was developed, simulating TB epidemiology; badger ecology, including postcull social perturbation; and TB-related farm management. An economic cost-benefit module was integrated into the model to assess whether badger control offers economic benefits. Model results strongly indicate that although, if perturbation were restricted, extensive badger culling could reduce rates in cattle, overall an economic loss would be more likely than a benefit. Perturbation of the badger population was a key factor determining success or failure of control. The model highlighted some important knowledge gaps regarding both the spatial and temporal characteristics of perturbation that warrant further research.

Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales

Phytophthora ramorum is a damaging invasive plant pathogen and was first discovered in the UK in 2002. Spatial point analyses were applied to the occurrence of this disease in England and Wales during the period of 2003-2006 in order to assess its spatio-temporal spread. Out of the 4301 garden centres and nurseries (GCN) surveyed, there were 164, 105, 123 and 41 sites with P. ramorum in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively. Spatial analysis of the observed point patterns of GCN outbreaks suggested that these sites were significantly clumped within a radius of ca 60 km in 2003, but not in later years. Further analyses were conducted to determine the relationship of GCN outbreak sites over two consecutive years and thus to infer possible disease spread over time. This analysis suggested that disease spread among GCN sites was most likely to have occurred within a distance of 60 km for 2003-2004, but not for the later years. There were 35, 63, 81 and 58 sites with P. ramorum in the semi-natural environment (SNE). Analyses were carried out to assess whether infected GCN sites could act as an inoculum source of infected SNE plants or vice versa. In all years, there was a significant spatial closeness among GCN and SNE outbreak sites within a distance of 1 km. But a significant relationship over a longer distance (within 60 km) was only observed between cases in 2003 and 2004. These analyses suggest that statutory actions taken so far appear to have reduced the extent of long-distance spread of P. ramorum among garden centres and nurseries, but not the disease spread at a shorter distance between GCN and SNE sites.

A practical approach to a multi-level analysis with a sparse binary outcome within a large surgical trial

Objectives: To assess the potential source of variation that surgeon may add to patient outcome in a clinical trial of surgical procedures. Methods: Two large (n = 1380) parallel multicentre randomized surgical trials were undertaken to compare laparoscopically assisted hysterectomy with conventional methods of abdominal and vaginal hysterectomy; involving 43 surgeons. The primary end point of the trial was the occurrence of at least one major complication. Patients were nested within surgeons giving the data set a hierarchical structure. A total of 10% of patients had at least one major complication, that is, a sparse binary outcome variable. A linear mixed logistic regression model (with logit link function) was used to model the probability of a major complication, with surgeon fitted as a random effect. Models were fitted using the method of maximum likelihood in SAS((R)). Results: There were many convergence problems. These were resolved using a variety of approaches including; treating all effects as fixed for the initial model building; modelling the variance of a parameter on a logarithmic scale and centring of continuous covariates. The initial model building process indicated no significant 'type of operation' across surgeon interaction effect in either trial, the 'type of operation' term was highly significant in the abdominal trial, and the 'surgeon' term was not significant in either trial. Conclusions: The analysis did not find a surgeon effect but it is difficult to conclude that there was not a difference between surgeons. The statistical test may have lacked sufficient power, the variance estimates were small with large standard errors, indicating that the precision of the variance estimates may be questionable.

Factors controlling the distribution of ozone in the West African lower troposphere during the AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis) wet season campaign

Ozone and its precursors were measured on board the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe 146 Atmospheric Research Aircraft during the monsoon season 2006 as part of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) campaign. One of the main features observed in the west African boundary layer is the increase of the ozone mixing ratios from 25 ppbv over the forested area (south of 12 degrees N) up to 40 ppbv over the Sahelian area. We employ a two-dimensional ( latitudinal versus vertical) meteorological model coupled with an O-3-NOx-VOC chemistry scheme to simulate the distribution of trace gases over West Africa during the monsoon season and to analyse the processes involved in the establishment of such a gradient. Including an additional source of NO over the Sahelian region to account for NO emitted by soils we simulate a mean NOx concentration of 0.7 ppbv at 16 degrees N versus 0.3 ppbv over the vegetated region further south in reasonable agreement with the observations. As a consequence, ozone is photochemically produced with a rate of 0.25 ppbv h(-1) over the vegetated region whilst it reaches up to 0.75 ppbv h(-1) at 16 degrees N. We find that the modelled gradient is due to a combination of enhanced deposition to vegetation, which decreases the ozone levels by up to 11 pbbv, and the aforementioned enhanced photochemical production north of 12 degrees N. The peroxy radicals required for this enhanced production in the north come from the oxidation of background CO and CH4 as well as from VOCs. Sensitivity studies reveal that both the background CH4 and partially oxidised VOCs, produced from the oxidation of isoprene emitted from the vegetation in the south, contribute around 5-6 ppbv to the ozone gradient. These results suggest that the northward transport of trace gases by the monsoon flux, especially during nighttime, can have a significant, though secondary, role in determining the ozone gradient in the boundary layer. Convection, anthropogenic emissions and NO produced from lightning do not contribute to the establishment of the discussed ozone gradient.

A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead, we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: <2°C (including simulations in which atmospheric composition is held constant, i.e., in which the only climate change is due to greenhouse gases already emitted), 2–3°C, and >3°C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia, with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia, the far north, and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50°N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming >3°C than for <2°C; some features appear only at higher warming levels. A land carbon sink of ≈1 Pg of C per yr is simulated for the late 20th century, but for >3°C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years, even with atmospheric composition held constant.