Análise quantitativa de dispersão de vazamentos de substâncias inflamáveis e/ou tóxicas em ambientes com barreiras ou semi confinados.

Com o atual desenvolvimento industrial e tecnológico da sociedade, a presença de substâncias inflamáveis e/ou tóxicas aumentou significativamente em um grande número de atividades. A possível dispersão de gases perigosos em instalações de armazenamento ou em operações de transporte representam uma grande ameaça à saúde e ao meio ambiente. Portanto, a caracterização de uma nuvem inflamável e/ou tóxica é um ponto crítico na análise quantitativa de riscos. O objetivo principal desta tese foi fornecer novas perspectivas que pudessem auxiliar analistas de risco envolvidos na análise de dispersões em cenários complexos, por exemplo, cenários com barreiras ou semi-confinados. A revisão bibliográfica mostrou que, tradicionalmente, modelos empíricos e integrais são usados na análise de dispersão de substâncias tóxicas / inflamáveis, fornecendo estimativas rápidas e geralmente confiáveis ao descrever cenários simples (por exemplo, dispersão em ambientes sem obstruções sobre terreno plano). No entanto, recentemente, o uso de ferramentas de CFD para simular dispersões aumentou de forma significativa. Estas ferramentas permitem modelar cenários mais complexos, como os que ocorrem em espaços semi-confinados ou com a presença de barreiras físicas. Entre todas as ferramentas CFD disponíveis, consta na bibliografia que o software FLACS® tem bom desempenho na simulação destes cenários. Porém, como outras ferramentas similares, ainda precisa ser totalmente validado. Após a revisão bibliográfica sobre testes de campo já executados ao longo dos anos, alguns testes foram selecionados para realização de um exame preliminar de desempenho da ferramenta CFD utilizado neste estudo. Foram investigadas as possíveis fontes de incertezas em termos de capacidade de reprodutibilidade, de dependência de malha e análise de sensibilidade das variáveis de entrada e parâmetros de simulação. Os principais resultados desta fase foram moldados como princípios práticos a serem utilizados por analistas de risco ao realizar análise de dispersão com a presença de barreiras utilizando ferramentas CFD. Embora a revisão bibliográfica tenha mostrado alguns dados experimentais disponíveis na literatura, nenhuma das fontes encontradas incluem estudos detalhados sobre como realizar simulações de CFD precisas nem fornecem indicadores precisos de desempenho. Portanto, novos testes de campo foram realizados a fim de oferecer novos dados para estudos de validação mais abrangentes. Testes de campo de dispersão de nuvem de propano (com e sem a presença de barreiras obstruindo o fluxo) foram realizados no campo de treinamento da empresa Can Padró Segurança e Proteção (em Barcelona). Quatro testes foram realizados, consistindo em liberações de propano com vazões de até 0,5 kg/s, com duração de 40 segundos em uma área de descarga de 700 m2. Os testes de campo contribuíram para a reavaliação dos pontos críticos mapeados durante as primeiras fases deste estudo e forneceram dados experimentais para serem utilizados pela comunidade internacional no estudo de dispersão e validação de modelos. Simulações feitas utilizando-se a ferramenta CFD foram comparadas com os dados experimentais obtidos nos testes de campo. Em termos gerais, o simulador mostrou bom desempenho em relação às taxas de concentração da nuvem. O simulador reproduziu com sucesso a geometria complexa e seus efeitos sobre a dispersão da nuvem, mostrando claramente o efeito da barreira na distribuição das concentrações. No entanto, as simulações não foram capazes de representar toda a dinâmica da dispersão no que concerne aos efeitos da variação do vento, uma vez que as nuvens simuladas diluíram mais rapidamente do que nuvens experimentais.

An Empirical Comparison of Reuse in Embedded and Nonembedded Systems

High-quality software, delivered on time and budget, constitutes a critical part of most products and services in modern society. Our government has invested billions of dollars to develop software assets, often to redevelop the same capability many times. Recognizing the waste involved in redeveloping these assets, in 1992 the Department of Defense issued the Software Reuse Initiative. The vision of the Software Reuse Initiative was "To drive the DoD software community from its current "re-invent the software" cycle to a process-driven, domain-specific, architecture-centric, library-based way of constructing software.'' Twenty years after issuing this initiative, there is evidence of this vision beginning to be realized in nonembedded systems. However, virtually every large embedded system undertaken has incurred large cost and schedule overruns. Investigations into the root cause of these overruns implicates reuse. Why are we seeing improvements in the outcomes of these large scale nonembedded systems and worse outcomes in embedded systems? This question is the foundation for this research. The experiences of the Aerospace industry have led to a number of questions about reuse and how the industry is employing reuse in embedded systems. For example, does reuse in embedded systems yield the same outcomes as in nonembedded systems? Are the outcomes positive? If the outcomes are different, it may indicate that embedded systems should not use data from nonembedded systems for estimation. Are embedded systems using the same development approaches as nonembedded systems? Does the development approach make a difference? If embedded systems develop software differently from nonembedded systems, it may mean that the same processes do not apply to both types of systems. What about the reuse of different artifacts? Perhaps there are certain artifacts that, when reused, contribute more or are more difficult to use in embedded systems. Finally, what are the success factors and obstacles to reuse? Are they the same in embedded systems as in nonembedded systems? The research in this dissertation is comprised of a series of empirical studies using professionals in the aerospace and defense industry as its subjects. The main focus has been to investigate the reuse practices of embedded systems professionals and nonembedded systems professionals and compare the methods and artifacts used against the outcomes. The research has followed a combined qualitative and quantitative design approach. The qualitative data were collected by surveying software and systems engineers, interviewing senior developers, and reading numerous documents and other studies. Quantitative data were derived from converting survey and interview respondents' answers into coding that could be counted and measured. From the search of existing empirical literature, we learned that reuse in embedded systems are in fact significantly different from nonembedded systems, particularly in effort in model based development approach and quality where the development approach was not specified. The questionnaire showed differences in the development approach used in embedded projects from nonembedded projects, in particular, embedded systems were significantly more likely to use a heritage/legacy development approach. There was also a difference in the artifacts used, with embedded systems more likely to reuse hardware, test products, and test clusters. Nearly all the projects reported using code, but the questionnaire showed that the reuse of code brought mixed results. One of the differences expressed by the respondents to the questionnaire was the difficulty in reuse of code for embedded systems when the platform changed. The semistructured interviews were performed to tell us why the phenomena in the review of literature and the questionnaire were observed. We asked respected industry professionals, such as senior fellows, fellows and distinguished members of technical staff, about their experiences with reuse. We learned that many embedded systems used heritage/legacy development approaches because their systems had been around for many years, before models and modeling tools became available. We learned that reuse of code is beneficial primarily when the code does not require modification, but, especially in embedded systems, once it has to be changed, reuse of code yields few benefits. Finally, while platform independence is a goal for many in nonembedded systems, it is certainly not a goal for the embedded systems professionals and in many cases it is a detriment. However, both embedded and nonembedded systems professionals endorsed the idea of platform standardization. Finally, we conclude that while reuse in embedded systems and nonembedded systems is different today, they are converging. As heritage embedded systems are phased out, models become more robust and platforms are standardized, reuse in embedded systems will become more like nonembedded systems.

Chloride Penetration Prediction in Concrete through an Empirical Model Based on Constant Flux Diffusion

An empirical model based on constant flux is presented for chloride transport through concrete in atmospherical exposure conditions. A continuous supply of chlorides is assumed as a constant mass flux at the exposed concrete surface. The model is applied to experimental chloride profiles obtained from a real marine structure, and results are compared with the classical error-function model. The proposed model shows some advantages. It yields a better predictive capacity than the classical error-function model. The previously observed chloride surface concentration increases are compatible with the proposed model. Nevertheless, the predictive capacity of the model can fail if the concrete microstructure changes with time. The model seems to be appropriate for well-maturated concretes exposed to a marine environment in atmospherical conditions.

Using multilevel modeling and mixed methods to make theoretical progress in microfoundations for strategy research

The microfoundations research agenda presents an expanded theoretical perspective because it considers individuals, their characteristics, and their interactions as relevant variables to help us understand firm-level strategic issues. However, microfoundations empirical research faces unique challenges because processes take place at different levels of analysis and these multilevel processes must be considered simultaneously. We describe multilevel modeling and mixed methods as methodological approaches whose use will allow for theoretical advancements. We describe key issues regarding the use of these two types of methods and, more importantly, discuss pressing substantive questions and topics that can be addressed with each of these methodological approaches with the goal of making theoretical advancements regarding the microfoundations research agenda and strategic management studies in general.

Testing a new Free Core Nutation empirical model

The Free Core Nutation (FCN) is a free mode of the Earth's rotation caused by the different material characteristics of the Earth's core and mantle. This causes the rotational axes of those layers to slightly diverge from each other, resulting in a wobble of the Earth's rotation axis comparable to nutations. In this paper we focus on estimating empirical FCN models using the observed nutations derived from the VLBI sessions between 1993 and 2013. Assuming a fixed value for the oscillation period, the time-variable amplitudes and phases are estimated by means of multiple sliding window analyses. The effects of using different a priori Earth Rotation Parameters (ERP) in the derivation of models are also addressed. The optimal choice of the fundamental parameters of the model, namely the window width and step-size of its shift, is searched by performing a thorough experimental analysis using real data. The former analyses lead to the derivation of a model with a temporal resolution higher than the one used in the models currently available, with a sliding window reduced to 400 days and a day-by-day shift. It is shown that this new model increases the accuracy of the modeling of the observed Earth's rotation. Besides, empirical models determined from USNO Finals as a priori ERP present a slightly lower Weighted Root Mean Square (WRMS) of residuals than IERS 08 C04 along the whole period of VLBI observations, according to our computations. The model is also validated through comparisons with other recognized models. The level of agreement among them is satisfactory. Let us remark that our estimates give rise to the lowest residuals and seem to reproduce the FCN signal in more detail.

On the development of a theory of traveler attitude-behavior interrelationships: volume II: theoretical and empirical findings. Final report.

Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, Mass.

Modeling Depression Progression Dynamics from Electronic Health Record

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

A review of flow modeling for dense medium cyclones

A critical assessment is presented for the existing fluid flow models used for dense medium cyclones (DMCs) and hydrocyclones. As the present discussion indicates, the understanding of dense medium cyclone flow is still far from the complete. However, its similarity to the hydrocyclone provides a basis for improved understanding of fluid flow in DMCs. The complexity of fluid flow in DMCs is basically due to the existence of medium as well as the dominance of turbulent particle size and density effects on separation. Both the theoretical and experimental analysis is done with respect to two-phase motions and solid phase flow in hydrocyclones or DMCs. A detailed discussion is presented on the empirical, semiempirical, and the numerical models based upon both the vorticity-stream function approach and Navier-Stokes equations in their primitive variables and in cylindrical coordinates available in literature. The existing equations describing turbulence and multiphase flows in cyclone are also critically reviewed.

A framework of issues in large process modeling projects

As process management projects have increased in size due to globalised and company-wide initiatives, a corresponding growth in the size of process modeling projects can be observed. Despite advances in languages, tools and methodologies, several aspects of these projects have been largely ignored by the academic community. This paper makes a first contribution to a potential research agenda in this field by defining the characteristics of large-scale process modeling projects and proposing a framework of related issues. These issues are derived from a semi -structured interview and six focus groups conducted in Australia, Germany and the USA with enterprise and modeling software vendors and customers. The focus groups confirm the existence of unresolved problems in business process modeling projects. The outcomes provide a research agenda which directs researchers into further studies in global process management, process model decomposition and the overall governance of process modeling projects. It is expected that this research agenda will provide guidance to researchers and practitioners by focusing on areas of high theoretical and practical relevance.

Towards a Modeling Environment for Earth Systems Simulations

The developments of models in Earth Sciences, e.g. for earthquake prediction and for the simulation of mantel convection, are fare from being finalized. Therefore there is a need for a modelling environment that allows scientist to implement and test new models in an easy but flexible way. After been verified, the models should be easy to apply within its scope, typically by setting input parameters through a GUI or web services. It should be possible to link certain parameters to external data sources, such as databases and other simulation codes. Moreover, as typically large-scale meshes have to be used to achieve appropriate resolutions, the computational efficiency of the underlying numerical methods is important. Conceptional this leads to a software system with three major layers: the application layer, the mathematical layer, and the numerical algorithm layer. The latter is implemented as a C/C++ library to solve a basic, computational intensive linear problem, such as a linear partial differential equation. The mathematical layer allows the model developer to define his model and to implement high level solution algorithms (e.g. Newton-Raphson scheme, Crank-Nicholson scheme) or choose these algorithms form an algorithm library. The kernels of the model are generic, typically linear, solvers provided through the numerical algorithm layer. Finally, to provide an easy-to-use application environment, a web interface is (semi-automatically) built to edit the XML input file for the modelling code. In the talk, we will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of this concept in more details. We will also present the modelling environment escript which is a prototype implementation toward such a software system in Python (see www.python.org). Key components of escript are the Data class and the PDE class. Objects of the Data class allow generating, holding, accessing, and manipulating data, in such a way that the actual, in the particular context best, representation is transparent to the user. They are also the key to establish connections with external data sources. PDE class objects are describing (linear) partial differential equation objects to be solved by a numerical library. The current implementation of escript has been linked to the finite element code Finley to solve general linear partial differential equations. We will give a few simple examples which will illustrate the usage escript. Moreover, we show the usage of escript together with Finley for the modelling of interacting fault systems and for the simulation of mantel convection.

Lexical database enrichment through semi-automated morphological analysis

Derivational morphology proposes meaningful connections between words and is largely unrepresented in lexical databases. This thesis presents a project to enrich a lexical database with morphological links and to evaluate their contribution to disambiguation. A lexical database with sense distinctions was required. WordNet was chosen because of its free availability and widespread use. Its suitability was assessed through critical evaluation with respect to specifications and criticisms, using a transparent, extensible model. The identification of serious shortcomings suggested a portable enrichment methodology, applicable to alternative resources. Although 40% of the most frequent words are prepositions, they have been largely ignored by computational linguists, so addition of prepositions was also required. The preferred approach to morphological enrichment was to infer relations from phenomena discovered algorithmically. Both existing databases and existing algorithms can capture regular morphological relations, but cannot capture exceptions correctly; neither of them provide any semantic information. Some morphological analysis algorithms are subject to the fallacy that morphological analysis can be performed simply by segmentation. Morphological rules, grounded in observation and etymology, govern associations between and attachment of suffixes and contribute to defining the meaning of morphological relationships. Specifying character substitutions circumvents the segmentation fallacy. Morphological rules are prone to undergeneration, minimised through a variable lexical validity requirement, and overgeneration, minimised by rule reformulation and restricting monosyllabic output. Rules take into account the morphology of ancestor languages through co-occurrences of morphological patterns. Multiple rules applicable to an input suffix need their precedence established. The resistance of prefixations to segmentation has been addressed by identifying linking vowel exceptions and irregular prefixes. The automatic affix discovery algorithm applies heuristics to identify meaningful affixes and is combined with morphological rules into a hybrid model, fed only with empirical data, collected without supervision. Further algorithms apply the rules optimally to automatically pre-identified suffixes and break words into their component morphemes. To handle exceptions, stoplists were created in response to initial errors and fed back into the model through iterative development, leading to 100% precision, contestable only on lexicographic criteria. Stoplist length is minimised by special treatment of monosyllables and reformulation of rules. 96% of words and phrases are analysed. 218,802 directed derivational links have been encoded in the lexicon rather than the wordnet component of the model because the lexicon provides the optimal clustering of word senses. Both links and analyser are portable to an alternative lexicon. The evaluation uses the extended gloss overlaps disambiguation algorithm. The enriched model outperformed WordNet in terms of recall without loss of precision. Failure of all experiments to outperform disambiguation by frequency reflects on WordNet sense distinctions.

An empirical investigation of the effect of rights issue announcements on share returns and the determinants of abnormal returns on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange

This thesis examines the effect of rights issue announcements on stock prices by companies listed on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) between 1987 to 1996. The emphasis is to report whether the KLSE is semi strongly efficient with respect to the announcement of rights issues and to check whether the implications of corporate finance theories on the effect of an event can be supported in the context of an emerging market. Once the effect is established, potential determinants of abnormal returns identified by previous empirical work and corporate financial theory are analysed. By examining 70 companies making clean rights issue announcements, this thesis will hopefully shed light on some important issues in long term corporate financing. Event study analysis is used to check on the efficiency of the Malaysian stock market; while cross-sectional regression analysis is executed to identify possible explanators of the rights issue announcements' effect. To ensure the results presented are not contaminated, econometric and statistical issues raised in both analyses have been taken into account. Given the small amount of empirical research conducted in this part of the world, the results of this study will hopefully be of use to investors, security analysts, corporate financial managements, regulators and policy makers as well as those who are interested in capital market based research of an emerging market. It is found that the Malaysian stock market is not semi strongly efficient since there exists a persistent non-zero abnormal return. This finding is not consistent with the hypothesis that security returns adjust rapidly to reflect new information. It may be possible that the result is influenced by the sample, consisting mainly of below average size companies which tend to be thinly traded. Nevertheless, these issues have been addressed. Another important issue which has emerged from the study is that there is some evidence to suggest that insider trading activity existed in this market. In addition to these findings, when the rights issue announcements' effect is compared to the implications of corporate finance theories in predicting the sign of abnormal returns, the signalling model, asymmetric information model, perfect substitution hypothesis and Scholes' information hypothesis cannot be supported.

Modeling the effects of pharmaceutical marketing

Successful innovation of prescription drugs requires a substantial amount of marketing support. There is, however, much concern about the effects of marketing expenditures on the demand of pharmaceutical products (Manchanda et al., Market Lett 16(3/4):293–308, 2005). For example, excessive marketing could stimulate demand for products in the absence of a fundamental need. It also has been suggested that increased marketing expenditures may reduce the price elasticity of demand and allow firms to charge higher prices (Windmeijer et al., Health Econ 15(1):5–18, 2005). In this paper, we present the outcomes of an empirical study in which we determine the effects of pharmaceutical marketing expenditures using a number of frequently used “standardized” models. We determine which models perform best in terms of predictive validity and adequate descriptions of reality. We demonstrate, among others, that the effects of promotional efforts are brand specific and that most standardized models do not provide adequate descriptions of reality. We find that marketing expenditures have no or moderate effects on demand for pharmaceutical products in The Netherlands.

Dynamic causal modeling of load-dependent modulation of effective connectivity within the verbal working memory network

Neuroimaging studies have consistently shown that working memory (WM) tasks engage a distributed neural network that primarily includes the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, the parietal cortex, and the anterior cingulate cortex. The current challenge is to provide a mechanistic account of the changes observed in regional activity. To achieve this, we characterized neuroplastic responses in effective connectivity between these regions at increasing WM loads using dynamic causal modeling of functional magnetic resonance imaging data obtained from healthy individuals during a verbal n-back task. Our data demonstrate that increasing memory load was associated with (a) right-hemisphere dominance, (b) increasing forward (i.e., posterior to anterior) effective connectivity within the WM network, and (c) reduction in individual variability in WM network architecture resulting in the right-hemisphere forward model reaching an exceedance probability of 99% in the most demanding condition. Our results provide direct empirical support that task difficulty, in our case WM load, is a significant moderator of short-term plasticity, complementing existing theories of task-related reduction in variability in neural networks. Hum Brain Mapp, 2013. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Quality management (QM) implementation in the Kuwaiti Oil Industry:An empirical study and a proposed generic framework

In an Arab oil producing country in the Middle East such as Kuwait, Oil industry is considered as the main and most important industry of the country. This industry’s importance emerged from the significant role it plays in both country’s national economy and also global economy. Moreover, Oil industry’s criticality comes from its interconnectivity with national security and power in the Middle East region. Hence, conducting this research in this crucial industry had certainly added values to companies in this industry as it investigated thoroughly the main components of the TQM implementation process and identified which components affects significantly TQM’s implementation and its gained business results. In addition, as the Oil sector is a large sector that is known for its richness of employees with different national cultures and backgrounds. Thus, this culture-heterogeneous industry seems to be the most appropriate environment to address and satisfy a need in the literature to investigate the national culture values’ effects on TQM implementation process. Furthermore, this research has developed a new conceptual model of TQM implementation process in the Kuwaiti Oil industry that applies in general to operations and productions organizations at the Kuwaiti business environment and in specific to organizations in the Oil industry, as well it serves as a good theoretical model for improving operations and production level of the oil industry in other developing and developed countries. Thus, such research findings minimized the literature’s gap found the limited amount of empirical research of TQM implementation in well-developed industries existing in an Arab, developing countries and specifically in Kuwait, where there was no coherent national model for a universal TQM implementation in the Kuwaiti Oil industry in specific and Kuwaiti business environment in general. Finally, this newly developed research framework, which emerged from the literature search, was validated by rigorous quantitative analysis tools including SPSS and Structural Equation Modeling. The quantitative findings of questionnaires collected were supported by the qualitative findings of interviews conducted.