Connectionist-based rules describing the pass-through of individual goods prices into trend inflation in the United States

This paper demonstrates a mechanism whereby rules can be extracted from a feedforward neural network trained to characterize the inflation "pass-through" problem in American monetary policy, defined as the relationship between changes in the growth rate(s) of individual commodities and the economy-wide rate of growth of consumer prices. Monthly price data are encoded and used to train a group of candidate connectionist architectures. One candidate is selected for rule extraction, using a custom decompositional extraction algorithm that generates rules in human-readable and machine-executable form. Rule and network accuracy are compared, and comments are made on the relationships expressed within the discovered rules. The types of discovered relationships could be used to guide monetary policy decisions.

Simplified Predictive Instrument to Rule Out Acute Coronary Syndromes in a High-Risk Population.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether diagnostic protocols based on cardiac markers to identify low-risk chest pain patients suitable for early release from the emergency department can be applied to patients older than 65 years or with traditional cardiac risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a single-center retrospective study of 231 consecutive patients with high-risk factor burden in which a first cardiac troponin (cTn) level was measured in the emergency department and a second cTn sample was drawn 4 to 14 hours later, we compared the performance of a modified 2-Hour Accelerated Diagnostic Protocol to Assess Patients with Chest Pain Using Contemporary Troponins as the Only Biomarker (ADAPT) rule to a new risk classification scheme that identifies patients as low risk if they have no known coronary artery disease, a nonischemic electrocardiogram, and 2 cTn levels below the assay's limit of detection. Demographic and outcome data were abstracted through chart review. The median age of our population was 64 years, and 75% had Thrombosis In Myocardial Infarction risk score ≥2. Using our risk classification rule, 53 (23%) patients were low risk with a negative predictive value for 30-day cardiac events of 98%. Applying a modified ADAPT rule to our cohort, 18 (8%) patients were identified as low risk with a negative predictive value of 100%. In a sensitivity analysis, the negative predictive value of our risk algorithm did not change when we relied only on undetectable baseline cTn and eliminated the second cTn assessment. CONCLUSIONS: If confirmed in prospective studies, this less-restrictive risk classification strategy could be used to safely identify chest pain patients with more traditional cardiac risk factors for early emergency department release.

Occupant location prediction in smart buildings using association rule mining

Heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) systems are significant consumers of energy, however building management systems do not typically operate them in accordance with occupant movements. Due to the delayed response of HVAC systems, prediction of occupant locations is necessary to maximize energy efficiency. We present an approach to occupant location prediction based on association rule mining, allowing prediction based on historical occupant locations. Association rule mining is a machine learning technique designed to find any correlations which exist in a given dataset. Occupant location datasets have a number of properties which differentiate them from the market basket datasets that association rule mining was originally designed for. This thesis adapts the approach to suit such datasets, focusing the rule mining process on patterns which are useful for location prediction. This approach, named OccApriori, allows for the prediction of occupants’ next locations as well as their locations further in the future, and can take into account any available data, for example the day of the week, the recent movements of the occupant, and timetable data. By integrating an existing extension of association rule mining into the approach, it is able to make predictions based on general classes of locations as well as specific locations.

Random Forest Based Approach for Concept-Drift Handling

Algorithms for concept drift handling are important for various applications including video analysis and smart grids. In this paper we present decision tree ensemble classication method based on the Random Forest algorithm for concept drift. The weighted majority voting ensemble aggregation rule is employed based on the ideas of Accuracy Weighted Ensemble (AWE) method. Base learner weight in our case is computed for each sample evaluation using base learners accuracy and intrinsic proximity measure of Random Forest. Our algorithm exploits both temporal weighting of samples and ensemble pruning as a forgetting strategy. We present results of empirical comparison of our method with îriginal random forest with incorporated replace-the-looser forgetting andother state-of-the-art concept-drift classiers like AWE2.

Neural networks would 'vote' according to Borda's Rule

Can neural networks learn to select an alternative based on a systematic aggregation of convicting individual preferences (i.e. a 'voting rule')? And if so, which voting rule best describes their behavior? We show that a prominent neural network can be trained to respect two fundamental principles of voting theory, the unanimity principle and the Pareto property. Building on this positive result, we train the neural network on profiles of ballots possessing a Condorcet winner, a unique Borda winner, and a unique plurality winner, respectively. We investigate which social outcome the trained neural network chooses, and find that among a number of popular voting rules its behavior mimics most closely the Borda rule. Indeed, the neural network chooses the Borda winner most often, no matter on which voting rule it was trained. Neural networks thus seem to give a surprisingly clear-cut answer to one of the most fundamental and controversial problems in voting theory: the determination of the most salient election method.

Managing Rentals with Usage-Based Loss

Motivated by new and innovative rental business models, this paper develops a novel discrete-time model of a rental operation with random loss of inventory due to customer use. The inventory level is chosen before the start of a finite rental season, and customers not immediately served are lost. Our analysis framework uses stochastic comparisons of sample paths to derive structural results that hold under good generality for demands, rental durations, and rental unit lifetimes. Considering different \recirculation" rules | i.e., which rental unit to choose to meet each demand | we prove the concavity of the expected profit function and identify the optimal recirculation rule. A numerical study clarifies when considering rental unit loss and recirculation rules matters most for the inventory decision: Accounting for rental unit loss can increase the expected profit by 7% for a single season and becomes even more important as the time horizon lengthens. We also observe that the optimal inventory level in response to increasing loss probability is non-monotonic. Finally, we show that choosing the optimal recirculation rule over another simple policy allows more rental units to be profitably added, and the profit-maximizing service level increases by up to 6 percentage points.

Mapping of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation in Rivers From Very High Resolution Image Data, Using Object Based Image Analysis Combined with Expert Knowledge

The use of remote sensing for monitoring of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in fluvial environments has been limited by the spatial and spectral resolution of available image data. The absorption of light in water also complicates the use of common image analysis methods. This paper presents the results of a study that uses very high resolution (VHR) image data, collected with a Near Infrared sensitive DSLR camera, to map the distribution of SAV species for three sites along the Desselse Nete, a lowland river in Flanders, Belgium. Plant species, including Ranunculus aquatilis L., Callitriche obtusangula Le Gall, Potamogeton natans L., Sparganium emersum L. and Potamogeton crispus L., were classified from the data using Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA) and expert knowledge. A classification rule set based on a combination of both spectral and structural image variation (e.g. texture and shape) was developed for images from two sites. A comparison of the classifications with manually delineated ground truth maps resulted for both sites in 61% overall accuracy. Application of the rule set to a third validation image, resulted in 53% overall accuracy. These consistent results show promise for species level mapping in such biodiverse environments, but also prompt a discussion on assessment of classification accuracy.

Computerized Medical Diagnosis of Melanocytic Lesions based on the ABCD approach

Melanoma is a type of skin cancer and is caused by the uncontrolled growth of atypical melanocytes. In recent decades, computer aided diagnosis is used to support medical professionals; however, there is still no globally accepted tool. In this context, similar to state-of-the-art we propose a system that receives a dermatoscopy image and provides a diagnostic if the lesion is benign or malignant. This tool is composed with next modules: Preprocessing, Segmentation, Feature Extraction, and Classification. Preprocessing involves the removal of hairs. Segmentation is to isolate the lesion. Feature extraction is considering the ABCD dermoscopy rule. The classification is performed by the Support Vector Machine. Experimental evidence indicates that the proposal has 90.63 % accuracy, 95 % sensitivity, and 83.33 % specificity on a data-set of 104 dermatoscopy images. These results are favorable considering the performance of diagnosis by traditional progress in the area of dermatology

Rule Generalisation in Intrusion Detection Systems using Snort

Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) provide an important layer of security for computer systems and networks, and are becoming more and more necessary as reliance on Internet services increases and systems with sensitive data are more commonly open to Internet access. An IDS’s responsibility is to detect suspicious or unacceptable system and network activity and to alert a systems administrator to this activity. The majority of IDSs use a set of signatures that define what suspicious traffic is, and Snort is one popular and actively developing open-source IDS that uses such a set of signatures known as Snort rules. Our aim is to identify a way in which Snort could be developed further by generalising rules to identify novel attacks. In particular, we attempted to relax and vary the conditions and parameters of current Snort rules, using a similar approach to classic rule learning operators such as generalisation and specialisation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through experiments with standard datasets and show that we are able to detect previously undetected variants of various attacks. We conclude by discussing the general effectiveness and appropriateness of generalisation in Snort based IDS rule processing. Keywords: anomaly detection, intrusion detection, Snort, Snort rules

Rule Generalisation in Intrusion Detection Systems using Snort

Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) provide an important layer of security for computer systems and networks, and are becoming more and more necessary as reliance on Internet services increases and systems with sensitive data are more commonly open to Internet access. An IDS’s responsibility is to detect suspicious or unacceptable system and network activity and to alert a systems administrator to this activity. The majority of IDSs use a set of signatures that define what suspicious traffic is, and Snort is one popular and actively developing open-source IDS that uses such a set of signatures known as Snort rules. Our aim is to identify a way in which Snort could be developed further by generalising rules to identify novel attacks. In particular, we attempted to relax and vary the conditions and parameters of current Snort rules, using a similar approach to classic rule learning operators such as generalisation and specialisation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through experiments with standard datasets and show that we are able to detect previously undetected variants of various attacks. We conclude by discussing the general effectiveness and appropriateness of generalisation in Snort based IDS rule processing. Keywords: anomaly detection, intrusion detection, Snort, Snort rules

Economic well-being and poverty among the elderly: an analysis based on a collective consumption model

We apply the collective consumption model of Browning, Chiappori and Lewbel (2006) to analyse economic well-being and poverty among the elderly. The model focuses on individual preferences, a consumption technology that captures the economies of scale of living in a couple, and a sharing rule that governs the intra-household allocation of resources. The model is applied to a time series of Dutch consumption expenditure surveys. Our empirical results indicate substantial economies of scale and a wifeís share that is increasing in total expenditures. We further calculated poverty rates by means of the collective consumption model. Collective poverty rates of widows and widowers turn out to be slightly lower than traditional ones based on a standard equivalence scale. Poverty among women (men) in elderly couples, however, seems to be heavily underestimated (overestimated) by the traditional approach. Finally, we analysed the impact of becoming a widow(er). Based on cross-sectional evidence, we find that the drop (increase) in material well-being following the husbandís death is substantial for women in high (low) expenditure couples. For men, the picture is reversed.

Giving Is Nicer than Taking: Preschoolers Reciprocate Based on the Social Intentions of the Distributor

Recent research has found that even preschoolers give more resources to others who have previously given resources to them, but the psychological bases of this reciprocity are unknown. In our study, a puppet distributed resources between herself and a child by taking some from a pile in front of the child or else by giving some from a pile in front of herself. Although the resulting distributions were identical, three- and five-year-olds reciprocated less generously when the puppet had taken rather than given resources. This suggests that children’s judgments about resource distribution are more about the social intentions of the distributor and the social framing of the distributional act than about the amount of resources obtained. In order to rule out that the differences in the children’s reciprocal behavior were merely due to experiencing gains and losses, we conducted a follow-up study. Here, three- and-five year olds won or lost resources in a lottery draw and could then freely give or take resources to/from a puppet, respectively. In this study, they did not respond differently after winning vs. losing resources.

[almost An Autobiography: A Study Of Social Scientists In Health Based On The Lattes Curriculum].

Among the various ways of adopting the biographical approach, we used the curriculum vitaes (CVs) of Brazilian researchers who work as social scientists in health as our research material. These CVs are part of the Lattes Platform of CNPq - the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development, which includes Research and Institutional Directories. We analyzed 238 CVs for this study. The CVs contain, among other things, the following information: professional qualifications, activities and projects, academic production, participation in panels for the evaluation of theses and dissertations, research centers and laboratories and a summarized autobiography. In this work there is a brief review of the importance of autobiography for the social sciences, emphasizing the CV as a form of autobiographical practice. We highlight some results, such as it being a group consisting predominantly of women, graduates in social sciences, anthropology, sociology or political science, with postgraduate degrees. The highest concentration of social scientists is located in Brazil's southern and southeastern regions. In some institutions the main activities of social scientists are as teachers and researchers with great thematic diversity in research.

Phylogenetics, Ancestral State Reconstruction, And A New Infrafamilial Classification Of The Pantropical Ochnaceae (medusagynaceae, Ochnaceae S.str., Quiinaceae) Based On Five Dna Regions.

Ochnaceae s.str. (Malpighiales) are a pantropical family of about 500 species and 27 genera of almost exclusively woody plants. Infrafamilial classification and relationships have been controversial partially due to the lack of a robust phylogenetic framework. Including all genera except Indosinia and Perissocarpa and DNA sequence data for five DNA regions (ITS, matK, ndhF, rbcL, trnL-F), we provide for the first time a nearly complete molecular phylogenetic analysis of Ochnaceae s.l. resolving most of the phylogenetic backbone of the family. Based on this, we present a new classification of Ochnaceae s.l., with Medusagynoideae and Quiinoideae included as subfamilies and the former subfamilies Ochnoideae and Sauvagesioideae recognized at the rank of tribe. Our data support a monophyletic Ochneae, but Sauvagesieae in the traditional circumscription is paraphyletic because Testulea emerges as sister to the rest of Ochnoideae, and the next clade shows Luxemburgia+Philacra as sister group to the remaining Ochnoideae. To avoid paraphyly, we classify Luxemburgieae and Testuleeae as new tribes. The African genus Lophira, which has switched between subfamilies (here tribes) in past classifications, emerges as sister to all other Ochneae. Thus, endosperm-free seeds and ovules with partly to completely united integuments (resulting in an apparently single integument) are characters that unite all members of that tribe. The relationships within its largest clade, Ochnineae (former Ochneae), are poorly resolved, but former Ochninae (Brackenridgea, Ochna) are polyphyletic. Within Sauvagesieae, the genus Sauvagesia in its broad circumscription is polyphyletic as Sauvagesia serrata is sister to a clade of Adenarake, Sauvagesia spp., and three other genera. Within Quiinoideae, in contrast to former phylogenetic hypotheses, Lacunaria and Touroulia form a clade that is sister to Quiina. Bayesian ancestral state reconstructions showed that zygomorphic flowers with adaptations to buzz-pollination (poricidal anthers), a syncarpous gynoecium (a near-apocarpous gynoecium evolved independently in Quiinoideae and Ochninae), numerous ovules, septicidal capsules, and winged seeds with endosperm are the ancestral condition in Ochnoideae. Although in some lineages poricidal anthers were lost secondarily, the evolution of poricidal superstructures secured the maintenance of buzz-pollination in some of these genera, indicating a strong selective pressure on keeping that specialized pollination system.

Ihwg-μnir: A Miniaturised Near-infrared Gas Sensor Based On Substrate-integrated Hollow Waveguides Coupled To A Micro-nir-spectrophotometer.

A miniaturised gas analyser is described and evaluated based on the use of a substrate-integrated hollow waveguide (iHWG) coupled to a microsized near-infrared spectrophotometer comprising a linear variable filter and an array of InGaAs detectors. This gas sensing system was applied to analyse surrogate samples of natural fuel gas containing methane, ethane, propane and butane, quantified by using multivariate regression models based on partial least square (PLS) algorithms and Savitzky-Golay 1(st) derivative data preprocessing. The external validation of the obtained models reveals root mean square errors of prediction of 0.37, 0.36, 0.67 and 0.37% (v/v), for methane, ethane, propane and butane, respectively. The developed sensing system provides particularly rapid response times upon composition changes of the gaseous sample (approximately 2 s) due the minute volume of the iHWG-based measurement cell. The sensing system developed in this study is fully portable with a hand-held sized analyser footprint, and thus ideally suited for field analysis. Last but not least, the obtained results corroborate the potential of NIR-iHWG analysers for monitoring the quality of natural gas and petrochemical gaseous products.