Machine learning Gaussian short rate

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Estatística e Gestão do Risco

The effect of key process operational conditions on enhanced biological phosphorus removal from wastewater

Enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) is the most economic and sustainable option used in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) for phosphorus removal. In this process it is important to control the competition between polyphosphate accumulating organisms (PAOs) and glycogen accumulating organisms (GAOs), since EBPR deterioration or failure can be related with the proliferation of GAOs over PAOs. This thesis is focused on the effect of operational conditions (volatile fatty acid (VFA) composition, dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration and organic carbon loading) on PAO and GAO metabolism. The knowledge about the effect of these operational conditions on EBPR metabolism is very important, since they represent key factors that impact WWTPs performance and sustainability. Substrate competition between the anaerobic uptake of acetate and propionate (the main VFAs present in WWTPs) was shown in this work to be a relevant factor affecting PAO metabolism, and a metabolic model was developed that successfully describes this effect. Interestingly, the aerobic metabolism of PAOs was not affected by different VFA compositions, since the aerobic kinetic parameters for phosphorus uptake, polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs) degradation and glycogen production were relatively independent of acetate or propionate concentration. This is very relevant for WWTPs, since it will simplify the calibration procedure for metabolic models, facilitating their use for full-scale systems. The DO concentration and aerobic hydraulic retention time (HRT) affected the PAO-GAO competition, where low DO levels or lower aerobic HRT was more favourable for PAOs than GAOs. Indeed, the oxygen affinity coefficient was significantly higher for GAOs than PAOs, showing that PAOs were far superior at scavenging for the often limited oxygen levels in WWTPs. The operation of WWTPs with low aeration is of high importance for full-scale systems, since it decreases the energetic costs and can potentially improve WWTP sustainability. Extended periods of low organic carbon load, which are the most common conditions that exist in full-scale WWTPs, also had an impact on PAO and GAO activity. GAOs exhibited a substantially higher biomass decay rate as compared to PAOs under these conditions, which revealed a higher survival capacity for PAOs, representing an advantage for PAOs in EBPR processes. This superior survival capacity of PAOs under conditions more closely resembling a full-scale environment was linked with their ability to maintain a residual level of PHA reserves for longer than GAOs, providing them with an effective energy source for aerobic maintenance processes. Overall, this work shows that each of these key operational conditions play an important role in the PAO-GAO competition and should be considered in WWTP models in order to improve EBPR processes.

Structured products in the current low interest rate environment

Directed Research Internship

The impact of talent management practices on employee retention: The moderator effect of leader-member exchange and role modeling

Organizations are undergoing serious difficulties to retain talent. Authors argue that Talent Management (TM) practices create beneficial outcomes for individuals and organizations. However, there is no research on the leaders’ role in the functioning of these practices. This study examines how LMX and role modeling influence the impact that TM practices have on employees’ trust in their organizations and retention. The analysis of two questionnaires (Nt1=175; Nt2=107) indicated that TM only reduced turnover intentions, via an increase in trust in the organization, when role modeling was high and not when it was low. Therefore, we can say that leaders are crucial in the TM context, and in sustaining a competitive advantage for organizations.

The impact of online promotional efforts on customer acquisitiom and retention at continente.pt

Continente Online (COL) is the market leader of online grocery retailing in Portugal. Aiming at sustaining this position, it has been focusing its promotional efforts in acquiring and retaining customers. This report intakes an extensive study on the impact of COL’s exclusive promotional efforts (free delivery offers and ten percent discounts on loyalty card) on customer acquisition and retention, as well as, a cost analysis on these offers. Two econometric models were developed and the results were interesting. It was concluded that free delivery offers have a significant impact both in terms of customer acquisition and retention, having also a lower cost in comparison with ten percent on loyalty card discounts.

High visceral leishmaniasis mortality rate in Barra Mansa, a new area of visceral leishmaniasis transmission in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Introduction Nine cases of visceral leishmaniasis occurred recently in Barra Mansa, State of Rio de Janeiro, with a high mortality rate. Methods We reviewed the medical records of the patients. Results Eight were male; 7 were adults. Patients who died progressed to death quickly and presented with aggravating factors: systemic steroid therapy before diagnosis, bleeding, severe liver involvement, infection, and/or refusal to receive transfusion. Conclusions We warn clinicians to be aware of the emergence of visceral leishmaniasis in new areas and to keep in mind the possibility of atypical clinical pictures and aggravating factors, so timely diagnosis can be made and prompt and adequate treatment can be initiated.

Impact of carbon/nitrogen feeding strategy on polyhydroxyalkanoates production using mixed microbial cultures

Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) production using mixed microbial cultures (MMC) requires a multi-stage process involving the microbial selection of PHA-storing microorganisms, typically operated in sequencing batch reactors (SBR), and an accumulation reactor. Since low-cost renewable feedstocks used as process feedstock are often nitrogen-deficient, nutrient supply in the selection stage is required to allow for microbial growth. In this context, the possibility to uncouple nitrogen supply from carbon feeding within the SBR cycle has been investigated in this study. Moreover, three different COD:N ratios (100:3.79, 100:3.03 and 100:2.43) were tested in three different runs which also allowed the study of COD:N ratio on the SBR performance. For each run, a synthetic mixture of acetic and propionic acids at an overall organic load rate of 8.5 gCOD L-1 d-1 was used as carbon feedstock, whereas ammonium sulfate was the nitrogen source in a lab-scale sequence batch reactor (SBR) with 1 L of working volume. Besides, a sludge retention time (SRT) of 1 d was used as well as a 6 h cycle length. The uncoupled feeding strategy significantly enhanced the selective pressure towards PHA-storing microorganisms, resulting in a two-fold increase in the PHA production (up to about 1.3 gCOD L-1). A high storage response was observed for the two runs with the COD:N ratios (gCOD:gN) of 100:3.79 and 100:3.03, whereas the lowest investigated nitrogen load resulted in very poor performance in terms of polymer production. In fact, strong nitrogen limitation caused fungi to grow and a very poor storage ability by microorganisms that thrived in those conditions. The COD:N ratio also affected the polymer composition, indeed the produced poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) (PHBV) showed a variable HV content (1-20 %, w/w) among the three runs, lessening as the COD:N increased. This clearly suggests the possibility to use the COD:N ratio as a tool for tuning polymer properties regardless the composition of the feedstock.

Urethral catheter removal 7 or 14 days after radical retropubic prostatectomy: clinical implications and complications in a randomized study

PURPOSE: To evaluate the hypothesis that a 7-day period of indwelling catheter after radical retropubic prostatectomy is effective and safe without the need of performing cystography. METHODS: In the period from January of 2000 to July of 2002, 73 patients underwent radical retropubic prostatectomy, and these patients were prospectively randomized in 2 groups: Group 1-37 patients who had the urethral catheter removed 7 days after the procedure, and Group 2-36 patients who had the catheter removed 14 days after the surgery. The 2 groups were similar, the surgeons and the technique were the same, and no cystography was performed to evaluate the presence of leaks. RESULTS: Two patients in Group 1 had bleeding and clot retention after having the catheter taken out in the seventh postoperative day and were managed by putting the catheter back in for 7 more days. Two patients in Group 2 developed bladder neck stricture and were treated by bladder neck incision with success. The continence rate was the same, with 2 cases of incontinence in each group. About 2 pads a day were used by the patients with incontinence. The average follow-up was 17.5 months (12-36 months). No urinary fistula, urinoma, or pelvic abscesses developed after catheter removal. Two patients were excluded from the analysis of this series: 1 died with a pulmonary embolus in the third postoperative day, and 1 developed a urinary suprapubic fistula before catheter withdrawal, which was maintained for 16 days. CONCLUSION: Withdrawal of the urethral catheter 7 days after radical retropubic prostatectomy, without performing cystography, has a low rate of short-term complications that are equivalent to withdrawal 14 days after the surgery.

Exchange rate pressure in Angola

The objective of this work is to develop an operational tool to analyze exchange rate pressure in the context of Angola. The Angolan economy exhibits a number of relevant characteristics: a closed financial account, a partially controlled current account, a highly dollarized economy and exports (oil) price determined in World markets. These features have a direct effect on the demand of foreign currency and motivate their inclusion in the specification of a model for Angola. The model provides the rational for a measure of an exchange market rate pressure (EMP) index that contains exports changes, imports changes, the foreign interest rate and inflation and the change in foreign reserves corrected for a measure dollarization. The empirical performance new measure is comparable (slightly better) to the performance of the EMP indexes obtained in Eichengreen Rose and Wyplosz (1994) and Klassen and Jager (2011).

Characterization of the clients retention in the tlecommunications companies

The ability of a company to be able to do a precisely churn prediction, so it can act on it, is paramount. For this reason, Deloitte addressed me the challenge of characterizing the client’s retention in the telecom companies. To do so, it was created a comprehensive tool that enables Deloitte to evaluate the churn management maturity level of a telecom operator and highlight its strengths and weaknesses. The development of this matrix was based on a depth churn research, a market research based on 40 interviews and 2 focus group and the valuable feedback from Deloitte consultants.

Growth rate of a terra firme rain forest in Brazilian Amazonia over an eight-year period in response to logging

This paper deals with growth rates of trees > 5cm dbh over an eight-year period from 257 species at the Tapajós National Forest. The discussion is centred on the behaviour of the forest after logging. Permanent sample plots were established in 1981 and measured at the first time. The area was logged in 1982. Measurements after logging occurred in 1983, 1987 and 1989. Considering all species together, diameter increment was similar for both intensities of logging until five years after logging. Light-demanding species showed significantly higher growth rates than shade-tolerant species in the logged forest, with greater increment in the heavier treatment intensity. Commercial species also had higher growth rates in the heavier logged area, although those were significantly different only in the period from one to five years after logging. In the undisturbed forest, growth rates increased with increasing dbh size. At species level, growth rate varied between and within treatments, as well as between trees within species, depending mainly on degree of canopy opening. The logging favoured the growth of commercial species, chiefly the light-demanders. Therefore, if the same growth conditions continue being given, for example by silvicultural treatments, to those species of commercial interest, the forest would reach a stock available for harvesting around year 30 after logging. However, the high variation in increment rates indicates that an eight-year period is not sufficient to allow predictions on cutting cycles or polycyclic management systems for the study forest.

High strain rate constitutive modeling forhistorical structures subjected to blast loading

Doctoral Thesis Civil Engineering

Empathy and heart rate variability: a need and a mechanism of emotion regulation

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Psicologia

End-of-day dryness, corneal sensitivity and blink rate in contact lens wearers

Purpose: To study the relationship among the variables intensity ofthe end-of-day (EOD) dryness, corneal sensitivity and blink rate in soft contact lens (CL) wearers. Methods: Thirty-eight soft CL wearers (25 women and 13 men; mean age 27.1 ± 7.2 years) were enrolled. EOD dryness was assessed using a scale of 0–5 (0, none to 5, very intense). Mechanical and thermal (heat and cold) sensitivity were measured using a Belmonte’s gas esthesiometer. The blink rate was recorded using a video camera while subjects were wearing a hydrogel CL and watching a film for 90 min in a controlled environmental chamber. Results: A significant inverse correlation was found between EOD dryness and mechanical sensitivity (r: −0.39; p = 0.02); however, there were no significant correlations between EOD dryness and thermal sensitivity. A significant (r: 0.56; p < 0.001) correlation also was observed between EOD dryness and blink rate, but no correlations were found between blink rate and mechanical or thermal sensitivity. Conclusions: CL wearers with higher corneal sensitivity to mechanical stimulation reported more EOD dryness with habitual CL wear. Moreover, subjects reporting more EOD dryness had an increased blink rates during wear of a standard CL type. The increased blink rate could act to improve the ocular surface environment and relieve symptoms

Outcrossing rate of Couratari multiflora (J.Smith) Eyma (Lecythidaceae), a low-density tropical tree species from a central Amazonian rainforest

A multilocus mixed-mating model was used to evaluate the mating system of a population of Couratari multiflora, an emergent tree species found in low densities (1 individual/10 ha) in lowland forests of central Amazonia. We surveyed and observed phenologically 41 trees in an area of 400 ha. From these, only four mother trees were analyzed here because few of them set fruits, which also suffered high predation. No difference was observed between the population multilocus outcrossing rate (t mp = 0.953 ± 0.040) and the average single locus rate (t sp = 0.968 ± 0.132). The four mother trees were highly outcrossed (t m ~ 1). Two out of five loci showed departures from the Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) expectations, and the same results occurred with the mixed-mating model. Besides the low number of trees analyzed, the proportion of loci in HWE suggests random mating in the population. However, the pollen pool was heterogeneous among families, probably due to both the small sample number and the flowering of trees at different times of the flowering season. Reproductive phenology of the population and the results presented here suggest, at least for part of the population, a long-distance pollen movement, around 1,000 m.