Assessing the resilience of potable water supplies in Southeast Queensland Australia

Historically, cities as urban forms have been critical to human development. In 1950, 30% of the world’s population lived in major cities. By the year 2000 this had increased to 47% with further expected growth to 50% by the end of 2007. Projections suggest that city-based densities will edge towards 60% of the global total by 2030. Such rapidly increasing urbanisation, in both developed and developing economies, challenges options for governance and planning, as well as crisis and disaster management. A common issue to the livability of cities as urban forms through time has been access to clean and reliable water supply. This is an issue that is particularly important in countries with arid ecosystems, such as Australia. This paper examines preliminary aspects, and theoretical basis, of a study into the resilience of the (potable) water supply system in Southeast Queensland (SEQ), an area with one of the most significant urban growth rates in Australia. The first stage will be to assess needs and requirements for gauging resilience characteristics of a generic water supply system, consisting of supply catchment, storage reservoir/s and treatment plant/s. The second stage will extend the analysis to examine the resilience of the SEQ water supply system incorporating specific characteristics of the SEQ water grid made increasingly vulnerable due to climate variability and projected impacts on rainfall characteristics and compounded by increasing demands due to population growth. Longer-term findings will inform decision making based on the application of the concept of resilience to designing and operating stand-alone and networked water supply infrastructure systems as well as its application to water resource systems more generally.

Empirical minimization

We investigate the behavior of the empirical minimization algorithm using various methods. We first analyze it by comparing the empirical, random, structure and the original one on the class, either in an additive sense, via the uniform law of large numbers, or in a multiplicative sense, using isomorphic coordinate projections. We then show that a direct analysis of the empirical minimization algorithm yields a significantly better bound, and that the estimates we obtain are essentially sharp. The method of proof we use is based on Talagrand’s concentration inequality for empirical processes.

Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios : A systematic review

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English up to 2010. Data synthesis: The review included 14 studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of the historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of the future changes in climate, population and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socio-economic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.

SwarmPS: Rapid, semi-automated single particle selection software

Single particle analysis (SPA) coupled with high-resolution electron cryo-microscopy is emerging as a powerful technique for the structure determination of membrane protein complexes and soluble macromolecular assemblies. Current estimates suggest that ∼104–105 particle projections are required to attain a 3 Å resolution 3D reconstruction (symmetry dependent). Selecting this number of molecular projections differing in size, shape and symmetry is a rate-limiting step for the automation of 3D image reconstruction. Here, we present SwarmPS, a feature rich GUI based software package to manage large scale, semi-automated particle picking projects. The software provides cross-correlation and edge-detection algorithms. Algorithm-specific parameters are transparently and automatically determined through user interaction with the image, rather than by trial and error. Other features include multiple image handling (∼102), local and global particle selection options, interactive image freezing, automatic particle centering, and full manual override to correct false positives and negatives. SwarmPS is user friendly, flexible, extensible, fast, and capable of exporting boxed out projection images, or particle coordinates, compatible with downstream image processing suites.

Compressive sensing for gait recognition

Compressive Sensing (CS) is a popular signal processing technique, that can exactly reconstruct a signal given a small number of random projections of the original signal, provided that the signal is sufficiently sparse. We demonstrate the applicability of CS in the field of gait recognition as a very effective dimensionality reduction technique, using the gait energy image (GEI) as the feature extraction process. We compare the CS based approach to the principal component analysis (PCA) and show that the proposed method outperforms this baseline, particularly under situations where there are appearance changes in the subject. Applying CS to the gait features also avoids the need to train the models, by using a generalised random projection.

Relics

Relics is a single-channel video derived from a 3D computer animation that combines a range of media including photography, drawing, painting, and pre-shot video. It is constructed around a series of pictorial stills which become interlinked by the more traditionally filmic processes of panning, zooming and crane shots. In keeping with these ideas, the work revolves around a series of static architectural forms within the strangely menacing enclosure of a geodesic dome. These clinical aspects of the work are complemented by a series of elements that evoke fluidity : fireworks, mirrored biomorphic forms and oscillating projections. The visual dimension of the work is complemented by a soundtrack of rainforest bird calls. Through its ambiguous combination of recorded and virtual imagery, Relics explores the indeterminate boundaries between real and virtual space. On the one hand, it represents actual events and spaces drawn from the artist studio and image archive; on the other it represents the highly idealised spaces of drawing and 3D animation. In this work the disembodied wandering virtual eye is met with an uncanny combination of scenes, where scale and the relationships between objects are disrupted and changed. Through this simultaneity between the real and the virtual, the work conveys a disembodied sense of space and time that carries a powerful sense of affect. Relics was among the first international examples of 3D animation technology in contemporary art. It was originally exhibited in the artist’s solo show, ‘Places That Don’t Exist’ (2007, George Petelin Gallery, Gold Coast) and went on to be included in the group shows ‘d/Art 07/Screen: The Post Cinema Experience’ (2007, Chauvel Cinema, Sydney) , ‘Experimenta Utopia Now: International Biennial of Media Art’ (2010, Arts Centre, Melbourne and national touring venues) and ‘Move on Asia’ (2009, Alternative space Loop, Seoul and Para-site Art Space, Hong Kong) and was broadcast on Souvenirs from Earth (Video Art Cable Channel, Germany and France). The work was analysed in catalogue texts for ‘Places That Don’t Exist’ (2007), ‘d/Art 07’ (2007) and ‘Experimenta Utopia Now’ (2010) and the’ Souvenirs from Earth’ website.

Delivery

'Delivery' (2005) was an installation work at MetroArts, Brisbane that incorporated drawings, paintings, video projections and temporary architectural structures. The work made central use out of a mock public event, staged in a Gold Coast park by the artist. Documentary footage of the ambiguous event comprised one of the video projections and formed the basic iconographic palette upon which the rest of the works were based. Using 3D animation as well as conventional drawing and paintign approaches, the works conveyed a palpable sense of fragmentation and social dislocation - a quality that was heightened by the reflective panels that bisected the exhibition space. The work was [part of the MetroArts Artistic Program in 2005 and its video elements were included in the 2008 exhibition Video Ground, curated by Rachel O'Reilly for Multimedia Art Asia Pacific (MAAP)/Bangkok Experimental Film Festival (Touring show). The work was the subject of a feature article by Mark Pennings in Eyeline magazine, and also appeared on the front cover of that issue.

Impact of global warming on the design and performance of air-conditioned office buildings in Australia

As global warming entails new conditions for the built environment, the thermal behavior of existing air conditioned office buildings, which are typically designed based on current weather data, may also change. Through building computer simulations, this paper evaluates the impact of global warming on the design and performance of air-conditioned office buildings in Australia, including the increased cooling loads imposed by potential global warming and probable indoor temperature increases due to possible undersized air-conditioning system, as well as the possible change in energy use and CO2 emission of Australian office buildings. It is found that the existing office buildings would generally be able to adapt to the increasing warmth of 2030 year Low and High scenarios projections and 2070 year Low scenario projection. However, for the 2070 year High scenario, the study indicates that the existing office buildings, in all capital cities except for Hobart, will suffer from overheating problems. If the energy source is assumed to be the electricity, it is found that in comparison with current weather scenario, the increased energy uses would translate into the increase of CO2 emissions by 0 to 34.6 kg CO2 equivalent/m2, varying with different future weather scenarios and with different locations.

When There's Love

This work is an installation featuring three video projections, music and mirror balls. The three projections fill the walls with scrolling text borrowed from love song lyrics. Headphones in the gallery space allow you to hear a male voice sing the same words to an impromptu tune. Mirror balls send fragments of light spinning around the room while The Righteous Brothers’ Unchained Melody plays on repeat. This work emphasizes fragmentary, repetitious and spatio-temporal experiences of language in order to question the symbolic conventions of romance. By exaggerating and mixing hackneyed symbolic elements, this work extends on some of Nicolas Bourriaud’s theoretical insights into the creative and critical strategies of ‘postproduction’. In particular, it toys with the intersections between popular culture and inter-subjective experiences.

PLDA based speaker verification with weighted LDA techniques

This paper investigates the use of the dimensionality-reduction techniques weighted linear discriminant analysis (WLDA), and weighted median fisher discriminant analysis (WMFD), before probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) modeling for the purpose of improving speaker verification performance in the presence of high inter-session variability. Recently it was shown that WLDA techniques can provide improvement over traditional linear discriminant analysis (LDA) for channel compensation in i-vector based speaker verification systems. We show in this paper that the speaker discriminative information that is available in the distance between pair of speakers clustered in the development i-vector space can also be exploited in heavy-tailed PLDA modeling by using the weighted discriminant approaches prior to PLDA modeling. Based upon the results presented within this paper using the NIST 2008 Speaker Recognition Evaluation dataset, we believe that WLDA and WMFD projections before PLDA modeling can provide an improved approach when compared to uncompensated PLDA modeling for i-vector based speaker verification systems.

Communications materials on methods of development of revenue and cost estimates to non-technical audiences

This CDROM includes PDFs of presentations on the following topics: "TXDOT Revenue and Expenditure Trends;" "Examine Highway Fund Diversions, & Benchmark Texas Vehicle Registration Fees;" "Evaluation of the JACK Model;" "Future highway construction cost trends;" "Fuel Efficiency Trends and Revenue Impact"

Preparing for coastal change

Coastal areas are dynamic environments that are home to billions of people worldwide and provide areas of unique natural importance. As such, coastal change is of considerable local and global interest, not only within the geological realm, but also in terms of socioeconomic and biodiversity impacts. An accurate understanding of how changes in relative sea level, geological processes and extreme events, such as storms and tsunamis, have interacted to shape and change the Earth’s coastlines over millennia is fundamental to future projections of coastal change. On the basis of this, researchers in these, and various other aspects of coastal change were brought together in late 2010 at the University of Hong Kong for the first meeting of International Geoscience Program Project 588 (IGCP588) e Preparing for Coastal Change. This special issue showcases some of the results presented at this meeting.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Front interactions in a three-component system

The three-component reaction-diffusion system introduced in [C. P. Schenk et al., Phys. Rev. Lett., 78 (1997), pp. 3781–3784] has become a paradigm model in pattern formation. It exhibits a rich variety of dynamics of fronts, pulses, and spots. The front and pulse interactions range in type from weak, in which the localized structures interact only through their exponentially small tails, to strong interactions, in which they annihilate or collide and in which all components are far from equilibrium in the domains between the localized structures. Intermediate to these two extremes sits the semistrong interaction regime, in which the activator component of the front is near equilibrium in the intervals between adjacent fronts but both inhibitor components are far from equilibrium there, and hence their concentration profiles drive the front evolution. In this paper, we focus on dynamically evolving N-front solutions in the semistrong regime. The primary result is use of a renormalization group method to rigorously derive the system of N coupled ODEs that governs the positions of the fronts. The operators associated with the linearization about the N-front solutions have N small eigenvalues, and the N-front solutions may be decomposed into a component in the space spanned by the associated eigenfunctions and a component projected onto the complement of this space. This decomposition is carried out iteratively at a sequence of times. The former projections yield the ODEs for the front positions, while the latter projections are associated with remainders that we show stay small in a suitable norm during each iteration of the renormalization group method. Our results also help extend the application of the renormalization group method from the weak interaction regime for which it was initially developed to the semistrong interaction regime. The second set of results that we present is a detailed analysis of this system of ODEs, providing a classification of the possible front interactions in the cases of $N=1,2,3,4$, as well as how front solutions interact with the stationary pulse solutions studied earlier in [A. Doelman, P. van Heijster, and T. J. Kaper, J. Dynam. Differential Equations, 21 (2009), pp. 73–115; P. van Heijster, A. Doelman, and T. J. Kaper, Phys. D, 237 (2008), pp. 3335–3368]. Moreover, we present some results on the general case of N-front interactions.

Adapting wheat sowing dates to projected climate change in the Australian subtropics: analysis of crop water use and yield

Projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) and air temperature associated with future climate change are expected to affect crop development, crop yield, and, consequently, global food supplies. They are also likely to change agricultural production practices, especially those related to agricultural water management and sowing date. The magnitude of these changes and their implications to local production systems are mostly unknown. The objectives of this study were to: (i) simulate the effect of projected climate change on spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Lang) yield and water use for the subtropical environment of the Darling Downs, Queensland, Australia; and (ii) investigate the impact of changing sowing date, as an adaptation strategy to future climate change scenarios, on wheat yield and water use. The multimodel climate projections from the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) for the period 2030–2070 were used in this study. Climate scenarios included combinations of four changes in air temperature (08C, 18C, 28C, and 38C), three [CO2] levels (380 ppm, 500 ppm, and 600 ppm), and three changes in rainfall (–30%, 0%, and +20%), which were superimposed on observed station data. Crop management scenarios included a combination of six sowing dates (1 May, 10 May, 20 May, 1 June, 10 June, and 20 June) and three irrigation regimes (no irrigation (NI), deficit irrigation (DI), and full irrigation (FI)). Simulations were performed with the model DSSAT4.5, using 50 years of daily weather data.Wefound that: (1) grain yield and water-use efficiency (yield/evapotranspiration) increased linearly with [CO2]; (2) increases in [CO2] had minimal impact on evapotranspiration; (3) yield increased with increasing temperature for the irrigated scenarios (DI and FI), but decreased for the NI scenario; (4) yield increased with earlier sowing dates; and (5) changes in rainfall had a small impact on yield for DI and FI, but a high impact for the NI scenario.